Shoemaker

[Dodecahedron]

 

There's a lot of second guessing here about Shoemaker and Dbnak. I'm not a big defender of the FO or Rocco but I do think signing Shoemaker make sense at the time given his track record with the Angels before his injuries and Dobnak's ineffectiveness at the end of last season. 

 

This is probably what the Twins were thinking. But, to be clear, I am not second guessing, this has always been my opinion.

 

I would add that when I look at Shoemaker's numbers, to me he looks equally good both before and after his injuries.

If you ask a Blue Jays fan what they think of Shoemaker, I'm betting the word you would get back is "bust." He was last productive five years ago, and most major league careers are less than five years in length. That's ancient history. There is no shortage of pitchers the Twins could have picked up who were last good five years ago, if that's how we measure #5 pitchers who are worthy of blocking prospects.

[Dodecahedron]

 

Read the rest of my post. Hard to imagine any starter doing better than 2-3 in those 5 starts, given our pen and offense.

 

On the Dobnak side, he's been tagged with the loss in 3 games out of the pen but again he's hardly the sole reason we lost those games. One he gave up a lone single in the bottom of the 10th inning after a Colomé explosion in the 9th and our offense was shut out in the top of the 10th. The other two, you could remove all of the runs credited to Dobnak from the final score and we still would have lost (our offense again scored only 2 and 3 runs, respectively).

 

And if you're simply swapping Shoemaker into that Dobnak role, it's quite possible the whole thing plays out exactly the same. That swap sure as heck isn't flipping the outcome of 4 games in a month without some very specific hindsight machinations.

 

So, flipping 4 losses to wins to account for Dobnak and Shoemaker's current roles does not get the team near .500? I think it does, right at 15-15. Some of those losses would have still been losses, but let's split the difference and add a game for optimism. 

If you want to remove gut feelings and do something down the middle based on the actuals, even though those would not have been actuals in the other scenario, you're at 14-16. That's near .500 too.

If you think the different roles and different pitchers would have had the same results, in which case I don't know why you would defend Shoemaker or the team, OK, you win.

[LA Vikes Fan]

 

What really irks me is that had MLB not postponed the minor league season to save money, the Twins might actually have some arms to fix this travesty of a bullpen.

 

Instead, we sit here and watch the same guys fail over and over again.

You got that right, Brock. An upgrade might be available art AAA and we won't know for another couple of weeks at least. BY then, this season might be pretty much over if it isn't already. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think this debate on Shoemaker is symptomatic of the real disease -  an unwillingness to make changes when the current roster isn't playing well. I understand the small sample size argument and subscribed to it for awhile. I'm past that now, primarily because of the way we're losing. The team looks lifeless, the managerial decisions are suspect almost in every game, and the team looks tight and fails in most clutch situations. It's ahr to see a likelihood of improvement. 

 

What is most concerning is that no one has stood up and acknowledged the problem even just to say "we stink, we have to get better, and we are going to make changes until we play better." The first step to fixing a problem is to acknowledge that you have a problem. You just don't get that sense from this team. I don't know if the FO's ego, Baldelli's unwillingness to make waves and call players out, or a lack of leadership in the clubhouse from veteran players. Something's off and I think it's a real lack of any sense of urgency. It's too early to panic but it's not too early to  acknowledge there's a problem and to try to fix that problem. I applaud the few moves that have been made but they are nowhere near enough. I think we're at the point where we need to make a big symbolic move that says this is NOT OK. 

 

My moves now:

 

Send Sano to AAA and leave him there until he forces his way onto the MLB roster with his play.

Promote Thorpe, pitch him every 5 days. Shoemaker DFA or to the pen.

DFA Cave, bench Polanco and/or Kepler. Arraez plays every day when he's back Tuesday. Gordon plays until then. If Gordon looks good enough, keep him on the MLB roster as the utility infielder, make Araez an OF and dump Garlick.   

Promote Larnach to Cave's spot, play him every day. He can have Kepler's ABs.

Promote Law, demote Theilbar.

Demote Stashack if there's anyone else at AAA worth a shot. 

When Kirilloff is ready, worst guy goes . 

 

Unless we see real significant improvement over the next month, explore trade avenues for Simmons, Happ, Donaldson and Cruz. Make a decision on whether you can re-sign Buxton and if you can't, trade him. If this lasts to the All Star break, fire the manager and replace him with someone a little more fiery. Teams alternate back and forth between Player's guys and ass kickers for a reason: after a while both styles become ineffective on the same group. 

 

This may sound too radical and it may be better to do some but not all of these steps but it's time to show the team the urgency of the situation. Time to let the team know that this isn't acceptable and that everybody is at risk. Sending Sano to AAA and benching Polanco or Kepler is way to start that.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, flipping 4 losses to wins to account for Dobnak and Shoemaker's current roles does not get the team near .500? I think it does, right at 15-15.

I'm not disputing that 11+4=15; I'm disputing the idea that swapping Dobnak's and Shoemaker's roles would have flipped the outcome of 4 losses. Looking at the actual losses in Shoemaker starts and Dobnak relief appearances, as I did my previous post, I'm not even convinced that 1 of them would have flipped (and probably no more than 1).

 

Dobnak relief losses:

1. April 1: tie game going into the bottom of the 10th, we were 81% likely to lose this game when Dobnak entered anyway (and he only gave up a single and a groundout to take the loss)

2. April 13: Dobnak actually pitched pretty well, 1 run in 3 IP, but we lost by 2, 4-2

3. April 16: Dobnak pitched poorly, letting 3 runs score in his 2.1 IP plus leaving two baserunners who the next reliever allowed to score too -- but we lost by a whopping 7, 10-3

 

Even replacing Dobnak with a relief pitcher who retired every batter he faced may not have been enough to flip any of these losses to wins, much less replacing him with Shoemaker.

 

Shoemaker starting losses:

1. April 11: Shoemaker wasn't great (4 runs in 5 IP) but was in line for the win until Colomé turned a 1-run lead into a 2-run deficit in the 9th

2. April 20: bad start, but we were shut out 7-0 in a 7-inning game

3. April 25: 2 runs in 5.1 IP, left trailing only 2-1, but we lost 6-2

4. May 1: terrible start, but we lost 11-3 anyway (with all 3 of our runs coming late)

 

Even giving the pen an additional 2 run cushion may not have been enough to flip game #1, and the rest were likely doomed by our offense apart from whatever Shoemaker did.

 

This isn't to say that Shoemaker has been good, or Dobnak's role has been correct -- just that it's very hard to flip 4 losses in a month from a single marginal move such as this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can see an argument that the Twins should have added another relief pitcher instead of Shoemaker, and trusted Dobnak as the 5th starter from the outset. But that doesn't mean the path they chose was "insane" -- nothing in Shoemaker's or Dobnak's recent histories suggests they couldn't be reasonably competent in the roles the Twins gave them.

 

And given what else we know, about the rest of the pen and the offense, that alternative scenario alone probably doesn't flip 4 losses in a month.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What is most concerning is that no one has stood up and acknowledged the problem even just to say "we stink, we have to get better, and we are going to make changes until we play better." The first step to fixing a problem is to acknowledge that you have a problem. You just don't get that sense from this team. I don't know if the FO's ego, Baldelli's unwillingness to make waves and call players out, or a lack of leadership in the clubhouse from veteran players. Something's off and I think it's a real lack of any sense of urgency. It's too early to panic but it's not too early to  acknowledge there's a problem and to try to fix that problem. I applaud the few moves that have been made but they are nowhere near enough. I think we're at the point where we need to make a big symbolic move that says this is NOT OK. 

It feels like some segment of the fanbase is demanding this sort of thing constantly, though.

 

Here we are, just 30 games into the season, and we've already moved our closer to a lower leverage role (twice?), we've promoted Rooker then Kirilloff and inserted them into the everyday lineup, and we replaced Jeffers with an untested Rortvedt. And with Thorpe and Dobnak starting this week (the latter in St. Paul), all signs point to us being very close to swapping out Shoemaker too. All this while without an active minor league from which to evaluate and select reinforcements.

 

I think that's a reasonable amount of activity, given the length of time and circumstances. I'd expect the activity to pick up a bit now, as the minors have begun, especially if certain slumps or injuries continue much longer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It feels like some segment of the fanbase is demanding this sort of thing constantly, though.

 

Here we are, just 30 games into the season, and we've already moved our closer to a lower leverage role (twice?), we've promoted Rooker then Kirilloff and inserted them into the everyday lineup, and we replaced Jeffers with an untested Rortvedt. And with Thorpe and Dobnak starting this week (the latter in St. Paul), all signs point to us being very close to swapping out Shoemaker too. All this while without an active minor league from which to evaluate and select reinforcements.

 

I think that's a reasonable amount of activity, given the length of time and circumstances. I'd expect the activity to pick up a bit now, as the minors have begun, especially if certain slumps or injuries continue much longer.

Yeah, with stuff like Larnach hitting two dingers immediately, I think we'll see some more aggressive moves as hot minor league players swap out struggling MLB players.

[ashbury]

Sending Sano to AAA and benching Polanco or Kepler is way to start that.   

Sano has enough service time to refuse the assignment. Then what?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sano has enough service time to refuse the assignment. Then what?

Yup. Like it or not, our only option with Sano right now is keep him on the roster, trade him, or release him (and eat the remaining ~$20 mil on his deal).

[ScrapTheNickname]

The Twins tried to cobble

together a starting rotation with a shoe

maker who in a matter of weeks will be a foot

note in Twins history.

[ashbury]

Like it or not

Neither.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Bummer on Sano. Bench him then and start looking for a trade partner. He's killing the team. 

[ashbury]

Bummer on Sano. Bench him then and start looking for a trade partner. He's killing the team. 

So then your plan becomes to bench 3 starters? You already mentioned Kepler and Polanco.

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Bummer on Sano. Bench him then and start looking for a trade partner. He's killing the team. 

Sano has been terrible, without a doubt, but he alone is not killing the team. There are multiple players doing that. Most, in fact.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Actually, I said Sano, Polanco and/or Kepler. I would play Gordon over Polanco, dump Cave and play Larnach in RF, move Kepler to CF if Buxton has to go the IL and play Astudillo at 1B for now until Kirilloff is ready to come back. If Buxton does not go on the IL, move Kepler or Larnach to IB (I don't know if Larnach can play IB). Arraez plays LF, with Garlick there until Arraez returns. Polanco gets 2 days a week in place of Simmons, Donaldson or Gordon, Sano gets 2 days a week at 1B or 3B. Plus there's probably 1 day a week where one of them can DH and Cruz sits. Net result is Larnach and Gordon play regularly, Sano and Polanco do not, and Cave is gone. When Kiriloff comes back, the loser of the Larnach v. Kepler performance battle hits the bench and Garlick goes if it's Kepler, stays if it's Larnach who then returns to AAA. 

 

And yes, I would bench 2-3 starters when those starters are playing as poorly as these 3 are. The fact that they're projected "starters" shouldn't help them if they don't perform. Figure out who you think has the best chance of a rebound amongst the 3 and give that player playing time to show that rebound. I think Sano is the least likely and I'm torn on Polanco v. Kepler.

 

I guess I'm looking for a potential solution. I don't think continuing to play Polanco, Kepler and Sano is that solution. IS giving time to Gordon and Larnach a solution? No one knows but it's worth a try. That try is unlikely to make things worse. 

[nicksaviking]

 

So, flipping 4 losses to wins to account for Dobnak and Shoemaker's current roles does not get the team near .500? I think it does, right at 15-15. Some of those losses would have still been losses, but let's split the difference and add a game for optimism. 
 

 

I really don't understand the Dobnak love. I know his story would make a good Disney movie, but I don't see him as being a viable starter very long; his inability to miss bats is almost certainly going to be his undoing. 

[Dodecahedron]

 

I really don't understand the Dobnak love. I know his story would make a good Disney movie, but I don't see him as being a viable starter very long; his inability to miss bats is almost certainly going to be his undoing. 

 

His career is a small sample size, but he has an above-average ERA+ for his career. His FIP is good, his BABIP is near average. These metrics suggest to me he misses slightly more bats than the average pitcher and statements suggesting otherwise are more of a narrative than reality.

 

No one is saying he is Cy Young. He simply deserves a chance to play, learn, and grow. He deserves a chance to prove the small sample size of his career to date is real and not a fluke. We all expect him to be a #5, as a floor, and a #3 as a ceiling. This seems realistic given his production to date. This is a good player who you don't block if you have any sense.

 

If he fails, he's one of thousands of other prospects, but has not failed yet and he deserves the opportunity to keep at it and maybe even keep getting better. If Dobnak simply keeps doing what he has been doing as a starter, the Twins have a solid #4 / #5 for years to come.

 

And yeah, he's better than the cobbler who blocked him. That Dobnak failed in the bullpen was as predictable as my cat barfing her hundredth furball. In the past week.

[shortround81]

This may be a topic for a different thread, but this whole discussion triggered something in my mind.

 

Do pitchers still get butthurt about being asked/moved to the bullpen? That might be a naïve question, but it seemed like more of a thing in decades past when it would be a blow to the ego. You'd think players would be savvy enough to know that complaining would hurt future chances of moving back to the starting rotation with the same or a different team.

 

Side Note: I don't have a gauge on him as a person, but I'm not saying that Shoemaker is refusing to go to the pen. I saw his recent Twitter post about how "it sucks to suck" and how he's trying to do better. 

[stringer bell]

Signing Shoemaker makes sense in an era where nobody can count on five pitchers for the rotation. Given the injury history of the five starters, having both Thorpe and Dobnak as options #6 and #7 is prudent. Starting pitching has been the one of the least disappointing of a so-far massively underachieving season.

 

Dobnak went four innings the other day and when he’s stretched to six he could join the rotation at any time. I presume Thorpe will also be in the Saints rotation and be ready to move into the starting five as well.

[stringer bell]

It’s interesting that the three regular players mentioned for demotion or a role change with less than full-time play are all players signed to extensions to buy out arbitration. At the end of 2019, most observers thought all three extensions were shrewd investments. Things change and I understand why each of Kepler, Polanco and Sanó have been criticized and it may be that none of them are future All-Stars or core players.

 

Specifically, I think Polanco might be a better super-utility guy than Arraez, especially since he is capable at shortstop and is a switch-hitter. Arraez’ skills are more vital to the club and I really don’t see him as capable in left field. Kepler is a good fielder but hasn’t hit like a corner outfielder since mid season in 2019.

[BeatTheRich]

 

The Twins tried to cobble

together a starting rotation with a shoe

maker who in a matter of weeks will be a foot

note in Twins history.

 

The easy interpretation is that we need a better cobbler.

 

Which begs the question... peach or plum? And furthermore, ice cream: one scoop or two?

 

I say we DFA the apple pan dowdy and promote the tartarian cherry.

 

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

The easy interpretation is that we need a better cobbler.

 

Which begs the question... peach or plum? And furthermore, ice cream: one scoop or two?

 

I say we DFA the apple pan dowdy and promote the tartarian cherry.

I never heard of apple pandowdy, but I like it! Are you by any chance a traveller from the 18th century?

[BeatTheRich]

 

I never heard of apple pandowdy, but I like it! Are you by any chance a traveller from the 18th century?

 

No, but Marie Antoinette often talks to me in my sleep. She claims she never said "Let them eat cake." What she really said is that the blackberry almond crumble was to die for. Her words, more or less. Probably less. In French, natch.   

 

She has no opinion on Shoemaker, but did say Dobnak deserves to start.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

No, but Marie Antoinette often talks to me in my sleep. She claims she never said "Let them eat cake." What she really said is that the blackberry almond crumble was to die for. Her words, more or less. Probably less. In French, natch.   

 

She has no opinion on Shoemaker, but did say Dobnak deserves to start.

And a reply from the 21st century: Noice.