Article: Scouting with Sean Johnson

[Thrylos]

Thyrlos could have a point if there was a large enough sample size of playing against the top talent in high school and college. Did the moneyball book talk of doing data analysis on college players? I would wonder because Beane has had better luck trading for players than drafting.

 

There is a large sample size for college if you take the top competition the last 15 years or so.

 

Moneyball is a book. I am not claiming that the A's and Beane are a prototype to follow; there are teams that use analytics more effectively (Boston for one). Last I checked, the A's won as many World Series as the Twins recently...

[Jim H]

I was talking about the competition level, not exactly the talent. And if you look at the draft, some college teams (the best) have most of their draft-eligible players drafted even if in later rounds and usually start at high Rookie or A ball in most organizations. Fact is that A level ball has older high school draftees and foreign signees who were weeded out in the Rookie clubs, so the talent level is higher.

 

I don't want to be argumentive, but all baseball is competitive. While major college baseball is certainly competitive, I don't think that will help much in deciding whether a guy can play major league ball. I remember a few years ago, one of Twins minor leaguers(one of Seth's favorites but I can't remember his name) had played with Nick Swisher in college. He was drafted in the middle to late rounds by the Twins. He even had similar college stats to Swisher. I believe he got as far as AA. I don't think college stats are very meaningful. They tell you nothing about where they are in terms of physical maturity, or what developmental stage they are at. Some people are physically mature at 18, most probably aren't. Stats can't tell you any of that. Most major leaguers say that work ethic and makeup are important to major league success. Stats can't tell you about that.

 

There is a reason why teams have so many scouts and why more than one scout looks at the top prospects. Even with that, there is more failures than success in a draft. Can the Twins do a better job of drafting. I suppose. But there is a certain amount of luck involved as well. Injuries happen. Some kids won't do the necessary work, no matter how talented they might be. Some probably can't handle the travel or pressure. The Twins organization can certainly be criticized on many levels, but I don't think stat analysis is likely to replace oreven be much help to scouting.

[Thrylos]

I don't want to be argumentive, but all baseball is competitive. While major college baseball is certainly competitive, I don't think that will help much in deciding whether a guy can play major league ball. I remember a few years ago, one of Twins minor leaguers(one of Seth's favorites but I can't remember his name) had played with Nick Swisher in college. He was drafted in the middle to late rounds by the Twins. He even had similar college stats to Swisher. I believe he got as far as AA. I don't think college stats are very meaningful. They tell you nothing about where they are in terms of physical maturity, or what developmental stage they are at. Some people are physically mature at 18, most probably aren't. Stats can't tell you any of that. Most major leaguers say that work ethic and makeup are important to major league success. Stats can't tell you about that.

 

There is a reason why teams have so many scouts and why more than one scout looks at the top prospects. Even with that, there is more failures than success in a draft. Can the Twins do a better job of drafting. I suppose. But there is a certain amount of luck involved as well. Injuries happen. Some kids won't do the necessary work, no matter how talented they might be. Some probably can't handle the travel or pressure. The Twins organization can certainly be criticized on many levels, but I don't think stat analysis is likely to replace oreven be much help to scouting.

 

Doug Deeds. Drafted in the 9th round. Made it to Rochester in 2007 then was let go and bounced around. Last season was in the Angels AAA team.

 

I get the arguments you are making. And for every argument you are making about why numbers do not matter, I can make the same argument why opinions that were formed by scouts who saw someone pitch 10 innings or have 30 PAs matter even less. So you need to have a combination in order to make more informed decisions. And I am not talking about the kids who everyone knows that they will be a superstar (everyone knows those), I am talking about finding the diamonds in the rough who will have a great career but nobody knows it yet.

[clutterheart]

Thanks for posting this. It's a very interesting read.

 

Q&a articles with folks inside the organization is just so Damon interesting.

 

By the way - he pretty much cofirmed that they will take a college arm in the 1st round is that right?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Thanks for posting this. It's a very interesting read.

 

Q&a articles with folks inside the organization is just so Damon interesting.

 

By the way - he pretty much confirmed that they will take a college arm in the 1st round is that right?

 

I think they top names on the board will be college pitchers. I don't know who the top guy on the board will be when they draft. If they picked 1-1, yeah, I'm pretty sure it would be a pitcher.

[Badsmerf]

Awesome job Jeremy. I enjoyed every part of every question. Also, what a great interviewee! Very good, thoughtful, in-depth answers. Couldn't have asked for much more.

 

This is pretty much how a draft should go IMO. It is impossible to compare statistics of players that don't face the same levels of competition. I don't buy that something was different heading into the draft last year, they are changing for the better.

[wagwan]

It's been an ongoing discussion on the message boards since the end of last season.

 

You can see my projections here.

Thanks for the link. I have been watching this page..... pretty good starters at New Britain

[Blackjack]

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

[Thrylos]

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

 

??? Nobody passed on him. Was the first overall pick and signed for record bonus ($6.25M) for a position player. Boras client.

[FrodaddyG]

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

What. The. ****?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

 

You're talking about the Bryce Harper that made the cover of ESPN at age 17, left high school early so he could play with a wooden bat, and went as the #1 overall pick for a record amount of money? You mean that Bryce Harper?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What. The. ****?

 

The Twins could have moved him to Venezuela as a 14 year old, put him in blackface, taught him a few words in Spanish, and then signed him as an international free agent.

 

Another classic example of this franchise's inability to think outside the box.

[maxisagod]

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

 

Must mean Mike Trout.....

[FrodaddyG]

Must mean Mike Trout.....

My guess is Tom Brady.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.

[Blackjack]

Must mean Mike Trout.....

 

Screwed that one up didn't I??!! SI had a good article on him awhile back, how 24 other teams passed on him, now the Angels have a budding superstar. Goes to show how much of a crap shoot the draft really is.

[FrodaddyG]

I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.

I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.

 

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If my memory serves me, Trout's senior year was limited by a lot of rain and guys had a hard time seeing him play. The scout that signed him had a connection to Trout's dad, so he was on him more than others. Trout would have been a guy that Twins would have been high on - toolsy, but that was also the year Gibson fell into the Twins laps. It's hard to blame them when they got a guy that was considered a top-5 talent just weeks before the draft.

[Ultima Ratio]

 

 

 

Glad to hear the truth from an insider.

 

Self-deprecating irony or accidentally walking into that joke?

[FrodaddyG]

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

And how lax the Minnesota DUI laws might be.

[ashbury]

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

 

She has to want to come to MN. Sometimes you just can't give away your money.

[drjim]

Thanks for the article, good stuff on the draft. I especially appreciated the section where he compared their strategy to Houston and Toronto. I was happy to hear they at least considered different strategies on how to spread the money around. I still think Buxton was the right call and like some of the other picks as well.

 

As far as Ryan's role is concerned, I remember an interview from a couple of months ago where he answered a couple of questions on the draft and basically said he knows enough to be dangerous, that he might see a guy once or twice and makes a point not to have that shape his opinion or to try and influence the decisions that are made. It makes sense he would be in the room but I have doubts he does much in terms of making decisions. But the ultimate responsibility of draft performance rests with him.

[drjim]

I'm confident that someone like Terry Ryan is very sensitive to the fact that with his scouting background it would be very easy to be seen as running roughshod over the guys actually doing the work now - careful not to start too many comments with "well, back when *I* was scouting...". On the other hand, I still find it difficult to accept that there is no difference ("regardless of who"), in how draft day plays out when a Bill Smith is in the big chair versus when Terry Ryan is - Smith will certainly defer to exactly whatever his chief of scouting recommends, Ryan would by contrast... what? The discussion as the rankings are constructed the day before the draft would have to be colored in some way by his take on how to synthesize all the information into a strong and cohesive draft for that year, and as draft day itself unfolds I could imagine a glance across the room to Ryan, where even a shrug of the shoulders saying "use your judgement" means more than not even looking in Smith's direction to make each call.

 

I think this is an interesting idea, but I would still think that the synthesizing of information into a strong and cohesive draft is the role of the scouting director. Ryan is most likely there to observe, make sure that the process is acceptable, and possibly to bounce ideas off. I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The example that Sean used about TR helping was that he'd help take the tags off the board when guys are selected. So we're talking minimal involvement. The draft is a big deal and GMs are interested, he said its likely the same in every baseball city in America. The draft room is across from St. Peter's office and near Ryan's so a lot of guys will drop in, though the decisions are in the hands of few.

[ashbury]

I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.

 

A lot of people prefer to draft the best available player in the first round (particularly a high pick) rather than draft for need, but after that first pick or two you can draft for need without too much compromise. If the GM feels the system overall is short on pitching, he will want the strategy to address that in the early to middle rounds. Maybe this will be obvious to the scouting director as well, but I would expect the GM would make sure everyone is one the same (namely, HIS) page on this. I think that's what we saw with the Twins in 2012. Maybe I'm a little too fanciful in guessing about body language from the big guy on draft day; I was drawing a contrast to the Bill Smith years when I would bet he had zero impact on the dynamics of draft day itself. The scouting team admires and trusts Terry Ryan and vice versa, and I can't help believing it matters on draft day.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That seems good in theory, but BPA gets pretty hazy once pretty quick. Sickles graded Gausman at an A- with Buxton at a B+. Given that, I'd say Gausman was the BPA but he was skipped. My concern with this idea is that BPA is often fluid. I'm not convinced Buxton was the BPA, and he certainly was not what the Twins needed. The Twins didn't pass up Steven Strasburg or Bryce Harper to pick Buxton, but they did pass some very good options. They passed up several pitchers with a 1/2 ceiling that could have helped them in 2014 in favor of a very raw OF with a high ceiling that won't be helping any time soon.

 

Need has to be considered, espeically given the fact that after the first round, your likelihood of finding that special player that fills the need drops too.

[bird]

I don't know what you guys are talking about. The Twins are completely clueless. Hell, they don't even own laptops.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

Great article, Jeremy! I love the incite into the scouting by professional sports teams.

 

Does anyone else think it's crazy that the scouts only "turn in 900" guys when 1500 guys are drafted? That's 40% of the draft! Did they see those guys and just didn't like them so they don't waste time ranking them for their room? Or are there players they never see?

[cmb0252]

While sickles graded gausman higher law, mayo, and BA graded Buxton higher. Does this mean sickles was wrong? Of Course not. Only time will tell.

 

Everyone, especially the front office, knows we need pitching NOW. Everyone, especially the front office again, knows we have outfield depth on all levels from low A to the bigs. Even knowing the depth the front office still takes a toolsy HS outfielder over a college arm. What does that tell you about how they, not sickles or law or mayo or BA, sees Buxton?

 

The twins spent a ton of time/money scouting and in the end Buxton was the guy. I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm not sure why so many of you aren't.