KLAW's top 100 list is out.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

 

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

 

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

 

Play second, bat second.

[Steve Lein]

I've never said Oswaldo was the better prospect. I said pre-injury Kubel was a good comp and thought "Jason Kubel Light" was not an accurate comparison. That's how I entered this argument.

 

And again, when Kubel was higher up in the Twins farm, the system was mediocre. He wasn't competing in a system that had Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Gibson, et al in it. Once Mauer and Morneau cleared the Major League roster, Kubel was the only decent guy left standing. His competition for "top 10 prospect" status was... not fierce.

 

OK, I can agree with your semantics in regards to "Jason Kubel Light." Mine was explained right before I threw that name out: "was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet."

 

The main thing is I don't see Arcia reaching Kubel's pre-injury peak, which is going to be decided this year, in the same leagues, at the same age.

 

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

[Steve Lein]

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

 

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

 

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

 

Sorry, I apologize by doing this for us all:

 

You hit the Rosario comp right on the head of the nail.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

 

Which is why I said "when Kubel was higher up in the system". Nearly everyone on that list worth mentioning (minus Garza and Liriano) was promoted well before Kubel hit the bigs. Span wasn't a top prospect until... Well, ever, really. He proved his worth in the bigs and became a good player there. Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

[Mark_RM]

I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?

As a guy who gets Insider for Law & Karabell I can paraphrase...He was the best pitcher in AZ fall league this year with a fastball sitting 92-94 he can contol down in the zone, a very good slider that works against rightys and leftys, and a solid change. Thinks there's a good chance he's the Twins' best pitcher by the end of the year (innings limits aside ). I also remember him saying on a podcast this fall that he's throwing as hard as he ever did, ditched the curve, and has a much better slider post surgery.

[Steve Lein]

Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

 

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

 

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

[FrodaddyG]

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

And by the time Kubel became an actual on-the-radar "prospect" (after the breakout 2004 season), Mauer has already started his first season in the bigs and blown out his knee. Morneau also saw half a season in the bigs in 2004, so by the time 2005 rolled around he was off the "prospect" list. Mauer was still only a "prospect" in the sense that he didn't play enough games in 2004 before he got hurt, and rolled over into 2005 as the #1 prospect in the game.

 

So when you say he was the "best hitter" on a lot of those lists, only the ones from 2005 on would count, and he was competing primarily with the likes of pre-figuring-it-out Span and Cuddyer. The Twins weren't exactly loaded with impact hitters once Mauer and Morneau "graduated" after 2004, unless you were high on the likes of Michael Restovich and Terry Tiffee.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

 

The reason I had Kubel as the better prospect in comparison was because scouts (at least BAmerica) had him as a top 20 prospect (#17). Statistically Arcia looks slightly better, but Kubel mashed AAA at 22 leading up to that ranking. Arcia could also do so (this will be his 22 year old season), but we'll have to wait. Interesting enough though, both had their worst minor league seasons at Ft. Myers (.760s OPS) by a significant margin. Giving more proof that it's tough for batters.

 

"In fact, I'd say Rosario is probably a 1-2 tool player, but the rest of his tools are near in line with league average which makes him a very good prospect."

He has a credible margin in every department. He has potential in all 5 categories.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

 

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

 

Where are these people you speak of?

[The Wise One]

Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

 

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

[The Wise One]

Where are these people you speak of?

 

On this board, one imagined friend will do. Bartlett was viewed as a good shortstop that was traded away. That value solidified after he had a couple good seasons after he left. I don't ever recall anyone fawning over him as a minor leaguer. They people also forget he only had two good seasons once he left.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

 

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

 

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

 

This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

[FrodaddyG]

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

I may not have a thesaurus in front of me, but as it seems, "wise" and "witty" are not synonyms.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

 

Statistic-wise, you are right. But the "statistical-scouting vs observational-scouting" debate will never end.

 

Watching Rosario swing a bat, he looks a lot like DSpan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

 

[3rd Inning Stretch]

I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?

If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

 

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

[FrodaddyG]

If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

 

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

I'm by no means a voice of authority for the site, but this won't fly.

[PseudoSABR]

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

Fascists!

[3rd Inning Stretch]

sorry, as I said wasnt aware, and its not in the FAQ

[FrodaddyG]

sorry, as I said wasnt aware, and its not in the FAQ

See the "ESPN affiliate" bit at the top? What are the chances that ESPN would smile on an affiliated site giving away their pay info for nothing?

[drjim]

Keith Law said in his chat yesterday that he encourages quoting of blurbs (with links) on sites like this to encourage discussion and exposure. Full cutting and pasting is an obvious no go.

[3rd Inning Stretch]

See the "ESPN affiliate" bit at the top? What are the chances that ESPN would smile on an affiliated site giving away their pay info for nothing?

 

I did, which is exactly why I put my disclaimer in there. .

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

 

Prospecting seems to be as nothing more than a fascination with the new girl at the bar for no other reason than that she is new. That's how a guy like Buxton ends up getting to be the #2 overall propsect of this team from a weak class despite being incredibly raw and not exactly dominating in rookie ball.

 

Arcia has gotten the job done at every level, and as you mentioned, he put up stats that ranged from very good, to video game numbers. He has the tools as well, but people are down on him because they know him... at least that's all I can think of.

 

He should be the consensus number 2 propsect on this team, and I think a strong case can be made to put him ahead of Sano. I see no reason to think he cannot be an all star in the big leagues.

[Badsmerf]

I have Arcia as the number 1 prospect on this team, and it really isn't close for me. How in the **** can you make post after post about Kubel being a better prospect than Arcia??? Look at the ****ing facts man, all this bull**** you're posting about people glowing over Kubel are so far off you're obviously ignorant about his minor league career. Kubel was an above average prospect at the same age Arcia is now and didn't deserve a huge top 20 ranking when he got it. John Sickles had him as a B ranking, while he has Arcia as a B+. Kubel was also the #8 prospect in the system prior to his breakout season, which again, happened at the same age Arcia will be durring 2013. Is it weird you're the only one posting this nonsense? What other evidence do you need?

 

Arcia is getting overshadowed by Sano right now in a big way. Sano has the best power bat in the minors and plays 3b. I rate Arcia higher because I don't think Sano will stay at 3b and he has contact issues. By comparison when Kubel was thought of so highly he had J.D. Durbin, Jesse Crain, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Jason Bartlett, Trevor Plouffe.... ect. So... yes, the system was incredibly weak while Kubel was breaking out. Almost any of the current top 10 prospects on the Twins would have been in the top 3 for that year, and receiving much more attention.

 

To be fair, Kubel was a better player prior to his knee injury. Had it not been for that his career would have gone much differently. I just find it incredibly irritating that you refuse to acknowledge age in relation to performance/level. Arcia is a better prospect than Kubel was end of story. The only evidence you have to argue is one year's prospect list which has Kubel at a higher position than Arcia is in this year's list (which again, Kubel is a year older). This is the same type of list that had Delmon Young as a #1 or #2 prospect for 4 years despite his lack of production and serious flaws. I'm done now. Sorry to everyone else for beating the horse.

[Turd Furgeson]

Regarding Sano vs Arcia, if Sano ends up moving off of third base would he really have less defensive value than Arcia does now? If he does, it will be slight. If Sano can play a respectable third base, he'll likely have much more defensive value than Arcia.

 

Sano does have contact issues, but Arcia has severe power issues compared to Sano. Most scouting reports I've read state that Sano has the hit tool to utilize his power. He probably will not ever be a .300 hitter but he could be a .270 hitter, combine that with a good on base percentage and potential 40 home run power and it should be pretty clear why Sano is listed unanimously as the much better prospect.

 

Also, it should be noted that right handed hitters actually take a bit longer to develop than left handed hitters, so you should take that into account.

[ashbury]

Keith Law said in his chat yesterday that he encourages quoting of blurbs (with links) on sites like this to encourage discussion and exposure. Full cutting and pasting is an obvious no go.

 

And I'm not sure of the legal distinction between copyrighted material and pay-sites, but the fair-use doctrine seems like it ought to cover a brief excerpt that has correct attribution.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll take a guy with a legit shot of hitting .300 with 30 home runs over the guy with the legit shot of hitting .250 with 40 hrs. That's a lot of hits that you are taking away to get an extra 10 home runs.

 

I'm also not sure how Arcia qualifies as having "severe power issues" as compared to Sano. Yes, Sano could be a perennial 40 HR guy... assuming he fixes his contact issues, but Arcia could be a perennial 30 hr guy who has no contact issues. Both are on pace to reach the bigs at the same time. Arcia has the tools and much fewer question marks at this point. While I don't quibble too much about Sano being #1, the idea that Arcia is not in that discussion is rather strange. If Arcia is not #1, he should be the consensus #2 on any list.

[gunnarthor]

Badsmerf, I don't think it's insulting to suggest that Arcia is similar to Kubel but that Kubel was the better prospect. I think that's true. Arcia might become the better prospect and you might argue that Arcia is the better 21 year old prospect. Arcia has never reached Kubel's highest BA ranking but is still young. But Kubel, even before his power developed, walked about as often as he struck out. That's a harder skill than power. When his power showed up in 04, he rocketed up the prospect ladder. Arcia has Kubel power but hasn't shown that plate discipline yet.

 

Additionally, Klaw had Arcia 5, BP has him 4, Mayo has him 5, BA has him 3, Sickels has him 2. Those 5 professionals avg Arcia as our #4 prospect right now. Hard to see how he's better than Sano, as you would suggest.

[Steve Lein]

Arcia is a better prospect than Kubel was end of story. The only evidence you have to argue is one year's prospect list which has Kubel at a higher position than Arcia is in this year's list (which again, Kubel is a year older).

 

I stopped arguing because the realization finally came that we were arguing different points against each other, not differing opinions on the same point:

 

Brock and others are arguing that Arcia, by his current age, is a better prospect than Kubel when looking at where Kubel was at the same age. I don't really disagree with this, but...

 

My argument is that Kubel became the better prospect overall when it comes to where his "peak" was on these lists, not accounting in any form for age, and I'm talking about top prospect lists that encompass all of the minor leagues, not just the Twins. Kubel made the top 20 at his peak when his knee was blown out. Arcia is just now cracking Top 100's (Law has him 59, Mayo 93, and BA and BP didn't have him on their lists last year, while Law had him at 85).

 

Then we get to the point that in a season where Kubel was 21/22 years old, he demolished AA/AAA. Guess what age Arcia is going to be this year at potentially, AA and AAA? He's going to be 21/22. Yes Arcia finished the season where he turned 21 years old in AA, whereas Kubel finished the season he turned 21 years old in A+. But they are going to be at the same point this year for their age 22 seasons, and if you expect Arcia, let alone ANY other prospect in the minors to match what Kubel did there, you're expecting a lot.

 

It's great that Arcia has been better than Kubel from the rookies leagues and through A+, but I have to believe we all agree that success at AA/AAA should matter more, right? Even with the great numbers Arcia put up last year at 21 at AA, he's not on Kubel's level for me (as a prospect in the regard discussed above) and I don't put nearly the same stock in performance for less than a years worth of age difference that they are in these time frames, and will finish this upcoming season as.

 

They're both going to (likely) have made their MLB debut at age 22, so what happens to this argument then?

 

Edit: And as I post this I see Gunnarthor basically explained the point I'm trying to make here, probably better than I did. Thanks for that.