KLAW's top 100 list is out.

[Badsmerf]

Sorry I blew up.

 

That is an incredible hypothetical to argue, you have to see that. Arguing a guy had a better prospect status after a break-out year that occurred in a season that is yet to be played by another player age-wise is.... well.... not arguable. What "we" are arguing, is that you can't say Kubel was a better prospect when Arcia isn't finished in the minors and Kubel's highest ranking occurred when he was a year older than Arcia currently is. Add to that Arcia has posted superior results comparatively age-wise and many will agree, at this same age (which is how you compare prospects) Arcia is further along. Let Arcia play through this season and we will see where his ranking is and his results. Then you can argue that Kubel was better. Now, its just not a valid argument.

 

You stated once that age doesn't matter. It does, and in a big way. Age is the only way to evaluate how much room for development a player has. Sometimes players develop faster than others true, but this is an exception rather than the rule. Most players (most humans) go through a similar physical development. When a player has the same amount of success as another player at a lower level, the player at the higher level is the better prospect since they are competing at a higher level. Example: Aaron Hicks. If he had mediocre results AGAIN last season he would have dropped out of my top 10. Arcia is a year younger and clearly outplayed him at the same level. I can't believe the argument Hick's defense will outweigh the offensive difference. Right now, I believe Arcia will be a better player than Hicks.

 

As for the discussion of Arcia vs. Sano. Yes, if Sano has to move off 3b his prospect status takes a hit. Simply because it doesn't take too much to play 1b. Arcia's defense is pretty good. The Kubel comparisons have obviously painted a poor picture of him. From what I've read, he will be an above-average corner OF. So, Arcia will make better contact, get on-base about the same (with more hits which is more valuable), play better defense. The only edge Sano has right now is possible positional importance and power. Plus, Sano hasn't seen the higher levels yet so everything is based on "tools". Just because I believe Arcia is a better prospect right now doesn't mean Sano wont end up the better player. I have a grip with prospect rankings because I feel they put too much emphasis on tools and ceilings rather than where a player actually is. This is why so many "top" prospects fail so horribly.

[PseudoSABR]

My argument is that Kubel became the better prospect overall when it comes to where his "peak" was on these lists, not accounting in any form for age, and I'm talking about top prospect lists that encompass all of the minor leagues, not just the Twins

Well if your point is that simple, it's hard to see where anyone could be led astray.