Fangraphs Top 50 Free Agents

[Seansy]

Here is the link to their Top 50 Free Agent List with player write ups, community estimated contracts and Fangraphs estimated contracts.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

Looking through the list the names that jumped out to me as good targets based on their projected contracts, need for the Twins, and upside/projected production are as follows:

12: Michael Brantley 2 years/24M Good Cruz replacement if he signs a 2 year deal elsewhere. 
14: Kevin Gausman 2 years/28M or 3 years/36M Good breakout year in 2020 and always had potential. Good value signing imo that may be undervalued by the short season. Could backload the contract if payroll is tight.

16: Andrelton Simmons 2 years/17M Ankle injury really hurt him offensively and defensively this year. This move makes more sense if the Twins want to make Polanco their super utility guy or move him to 2B and make Arraez the super utility guy. Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value.

19: Tommy La Stella 2 years/14-17M Super utility player

20: Nelson Cruz 1 year 12M I'm only giving him 1 year guaranteed. If he get's a 2nd guaranteed year elsewhere I'm passing.

21: Trevor May 2 years/12M 2nd best rated BP guy. Insane HR/FB will regress. Love the guy and this projected contract is reasonable. I took him over Rogers at this cost in my payroll spreadsheet.

24: Jake Odorizzi 1 year/12M or 3 years/39M He looked good when healthy just never could stay healthy. Unlikely to get the long term deal he wants but who knows. Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value.

25: Drew Smyly 2 years/17M or 1 year 5-10M I like Smyly a lot. Him and Gausman were the 2 players I picked for the Twins' 4th and 5th SP spots in the payroll spreadsheet and even at a larger cost than the Twins Daily writers projected I would still target them as my top 2 starting pitchers.

26: Kolton Wong 2 years/15M Surprise add to the list. Would play 2B everyday and move Arraez to super utility.

27: Mike Minor 2 years/14M Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value. Would want to work him out first to make sure his velocity is ok.

34: Alex Colome: 2 years/14M Good reliever. 

35: Jurickson Profar 2 years/9-15M Super utility guy

36: Trevor Rosenthal 2 years/13-16M Good reliever is healthy again.

37: Kirby Yates 2 years/10M or 1 year/7M Might be more likely to take a 1 year deal to rebuild value. Great when healthy.

39: Corey Kluber 1 year/9M Bounce back SP target

40: Joakim Soria 1 year/7M Solid reliever

42: Garrett Richards 1 year/7M Always injured but good when healthy (ala Rich Hill)

46: Robbie Ray 1 year/8M Bounce back SP target

48: Robbie Grossman 1 year/6M If the Twins miss on Cruz and Brantley or they don't want Brantley Robbie's improved defense and power plus his existing on base skills make him a great stopgap as a LF/DH.

 

Not listed:

 

Tyler Clippard 1year/3.5M Clippard is my #1 BP target. Consistently been very good for a long time, durable, very cheap and was excellent last year. He was as good or better than nearly all of the other top FA relievers, will cost half as much with no multiyear deal needed. Sign me up.

Kike Hernandez 1 year/5-7M Much discussed super utility guy that may be more affordable than we thought to begin this offseason.

Clippard and Hernandez weren't included in Keith Law's top 40 Free Agents list either.

 

I didn't include Bauer because I don't think the Twins will pursue him, especially with the lost revenue of this past season.

 

What do you guys think of Fangraphs' list and the players I highlighted as targets? What are the players you would target or avoid?

 

Let me know your thoughts!

[Danchat]

I'd be all over Brantley if we can't get Cruz back. He's really the only guy who comes close to replacing Nellie's bat in the lineup, at least at a reasonable price.

[Doctor Gast]

I`m sure that the poor financial 2020 & uncertain 2021 has always been considered in the salaries & I noticed that estimates are lower than originally quoted.  I expect the actual will come even more especially lower the level of the player. I`d like if the Twins pursued a solid SP. If the Twins can pick up Kiki Hernandez away from LA as a super utility, I`m all in. Otherwise I`d stick w/ Adrianza & Astudillo until Lewis is ready. 

[mikelink45]

The guys on the other teams always seem so attractive, but I am a stay at home guy this year.  Give me Kiriloff and Rooker, Blankenhorn and Gordon or Lewis, Colina, and Duran and I am happy.  

[drivlikejehu]

I suspect that free agent contracts are going to be even lower than the projections like these that are intended to account for the current environment.

 

Last year, in a nearly opposite financial environment, only 39 free agents signed deals with a total value of $10+ million. The FG projections forecast a roughly similar picture for 2021. I just don't see it.

 

With the prospect of expanded playoffs (even if 14 rather than 16), uncertainty over Covid, increases in debt loads, and the collective bargaining situation, the clubs have every justification/excuse to keep payroll as low as possible. Free agent contracts are particularly problematic because player production is often expected to be front-loaded, since most free agents are 30+ years old. Yet, the next couple seasons are subject to huge question marks.

 

My expectation is that the market will be so bad that it will kick off or worsen the ownership-labor crisis over the winter.

[lecroy24fan]

Cross Gausman off. He's been extended a QO. In no way should the Twins sign him and lose a draft pick.

[Seansy]

Cross Gausman off. He's been extended a QO. In no way should the Twins sign him and lose a draft pick.

Yeah, saw that. If he declines I would still look into it because the Twins don't lose a high pick as a revenue sharing receiving team but I would assume he accepts it. He's stated previously an interest in returning to SF too.

 

Another interesting note is Jedd Gyorko is a utility option since the Brewers declined his option. Assuming he's in the 3-5M range he would be a solid target for the Twins too.