A (pretty accurate) look at the seedings

[IndianaTwin]

Going into the final weekend of the season, the eight-team AL field is nearly set, though no team is locked into its seed. Here's what I came up with as combinations for the seeds. There's a few spots where I didn't have time (yet) to look back at the final 20 games when used as tiebreaker. And with 2^28 permutations in play, I can't promise I got them all right. But they're pretty close. 

 

TAMPA BAY (37-20):
• Ends with 37 wins:

o No. 1 seed if Minnesota loses once, Chicago loses once, and Oakland loses once (or maybe twice, depending on the next tiebreaker.
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota wins out OR Chicago wins out OR Oakland wins out (or maybe loses once, depending on the next tiebreaker.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota OR Chicago wins out AND Oakland wins out (or maybe loses once, depending on the next tiebreaker.
• Ends with 38 wins:

o No. 1 seed unless Oakland wins out and has the better record in last 20 divisional games.
o No. 2 seed if Oakland wins out and has the better record in last 20 divisional games.
• Ends with 39 or 40 wins:

o No. 1 seed.

 

MINNESOTA (35-22):
•  Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Chicago loses out, Cleveland loses one, and Oakland loses out.
o No. 3 seed if Chicago loses out, Cleveland loses one, and Oakland wins at least one.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins at least one and Cleveland loses at least one.
o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins at least one and Cleveland wins out. 
• Ends with 36 wins:

o No. 2 seed if Chicago wins one or less and Oakland loses at least three.
o No. 3 seed if Chicago wins one or less and Oakland wins at least two.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins two.
• Ends with 37 wins:

o No. 2 seed if Chicago wins two or less and Oakland wins two or less.
o No. 3 seed if Chicago wins two or less and Oakland wins three or more.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins out.
• Ends with 38 wins:

o No. 1 seed if Tampa Bay loses out and Oakland loses at least one.
o No. 2 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least one and Oakland loses at least one.
o No. 3 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least one and Oakland wins out.

 

OAKLAND (34-22; four games to play):
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 3 seed
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses out, Chicago loses twice or three times (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), and Cleveland loses at least one.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses out, Chicago wins one or two (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), OR Cleveland wins out
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses at least two, Chicago loses once or twice (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), and Cleveland loses at least one).
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins at least two or Chicago wins out
• Ends with 37 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses at least once.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins out
• Ends with 38 wins:
o No. 1 seed if Tampa Bay loses at least three.
o No. 2 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least two.

 

CHICAGO (34-23)
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Cleveland loses at least two and New York loses at least one.
o No. 5 seed if Cleveland loses at least two and New York wins out.
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses out, Cleveland loses at least one, and Oakland loses at least three.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses out, Cleveland loses at least one, and Oakland wins at least two.
o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins at least one, Cleveland loses at least one, and New York loses at least one.
o No. 5 seed if Minnesota wins at least one, Cleveland loses at least one, and New York wins out.
o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins at least one and Cleveland wins out.
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses twice, and Oakland loses at least one or two (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games).
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses twice, and Oakland wins at least three.
o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins at least two and Cleveland loses at least one.
o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins one and Cleveland wins out. 
• Ends with 37 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses once and Oakland loses at least two.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses once and Oakland wins at least three.

 

NEW YORK (32-25)
• Ends with 32 wins:
o No. 5 seed if Toronto loses at least one.
o No. 8 seed if Toronto wins out.
• Ends with 33 wins:
o No. 5 seed.
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 5 seed.
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on who has the best record in the last 20 divisional games.
o No. 5 seed if Chicago wins at least one or Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on which has the better record in the last 20 divisional games.

 

HOUSTON (29-28)
• Ends with 29 wins:
o No. 6 seed if Los Angeles loses at least one.
o Eliminated if Los Angeles wins out. 
• Ends with 30-32 wins:
o No. 6 seed.

 

CLEVELAND (33-24)
• Ends with 33 wins:
o No. 7 unless Toronto wins out and if Toronto has the best record in the last 20 divisional game.
o No. 8 if Toronto wins and has the best record in the last 20 divisional games.
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and New York loses at least one (if Cleveland has the best record in the last 20 divisional games) or two.
o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins at least one.
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses at least two and New York loses at least one (or if New York wins out, but Cleveland has the better record in the final 20 games).
o No. 5 seed if Chicago loses at least two and New York loses at least one (or if New York wins out, but New York has the better record in the final 20 games).
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses at least three, Minnesota loses out, and Chicago loses at least two.
o No. 3 seed if Oakland wins at least two, Minnesota loses out, and Chicago loses at least two.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on who has the best record in the last 20 divisional games.
o No. 5 seed if Chicago wins at least one or Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on which has the better record in the last 20 divisional games. Also if Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland all finish with 36 wins.
o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins at least one and Chicago wins out.

 

TORONTO (30-27)
• Ends with 30-32 wins:
o No. 8 seed.
• Ends with 33 wins:
o No. 5 seed if New York loses at least twice.
o No. 8 seed if New York wins at least once.

 

LOS ANGELES (26-31)
• Ends with 26-28 wins:
o Eliminated
• Ends with 29 wins:
o No. 6 seed if Houston loses out.
o Eliminated if Houston wins at least one.

 

[Nine of twelve]

Thank you for this. I don't have the time or desire to make this excellent analysis.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Thank you for this. I don't have the time or desire to make this excellent analysis.

 

I didn't have the time either. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don’t know if I completely endorse this expanded playoff format, but I heartily endorse this obsessive level of detail about it!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I didn't have the time either.

You certainly don’t have the time anymore.

[IndianaTwin]

Well, since I started this, I might as well continue. Here's the update after Friday's games: 

 

TAMPA BAY (38-20)
• Ends with 38, 39 or 40 wins:
o No. 1 seed.

 

OAKLAND (35-22; 3 games remaining)
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses twice, Chicago loses twice, and Cleveland loses once.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins one or Chicago wins one or Cleveland loses twice.
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses at least once and Chicago loses at least once.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins two or Chicago wins two.
• Ends with 37 wins:
o No. 2 seed.

 

MINNESOTA (35-23)
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 3 seed if Chicago loses two, and Cleveland loses at least one; also if Chicago and Cleveland each win one.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins one or Cleveland wins two
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses three and Chicago loses one.
o No. 3 seed if Oakland wins one and Chicago loses two.
o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins two and Cleveland loses one OR if Cleveland wins two and Chicago loses two.
o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins two and Cleveland wins two OR Cleveland wins two and Chicago loses one.
• Ends with 37 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses at least once.
o No. 3 seed if Oakland wins three.

 

CLEVELAND (34-24)
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses twice and New York loses at least one.
o No. 5 seed if Chicago loses twice and New York wins twice.
o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins at least one.
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses at least one.
o No. 7 if Chicago wins twice.
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses twice, Chicago loses at least once, and Oakland loses three.
o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses twice, Chicago loses at least once, and Oakland wins at least once.
o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins once.

 

NEW YORK (32-26)
• Ends with 32 wins
o No. 5 seed if Toronto loses once or twice
o No. 8 seed if Toronto wins twice.
• Ends with 33 wins:
o No. 5 seed if loses once or twice
o No. 8 seed if Toronto wins twice.
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 4 seed if Cleveland loses twice and Chicago loses twice.
o No. 5 seed if Cleveland wins once or Chicago wins once.

 

HOUSTON (29-29)
• Ends with 29, 30, or 31 wins:
o No. 6 seed.

 

CHICAGO (34-24)
• Ends with 34 wins:
o No. 7 seed.
• Ends with 35 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses twice, Minnesota loses twice and Cleveland loses twice.
o No. 3 seed if Oakland wins at least once, Minnesota loses twice and Cleveland loses twice.
o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins once OR Cleveland wins once and Minnesota loses twice.
o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins once and Cleveland wins once.
• Ends with 36 wins:
o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses once, Minnesota loses once and Cleveland loses once.
o No. 3 seed if Oakland loses twice, Minnesota loses once and Cleveland loses once.
o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins twice or Cleveland wins twice.
o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins at least once and Cleveland wins twice.

 

TORONTO (31-27)
• Ends with 31 or 32 wins:
o No. 8 seed.
• Ends with 33 wins:
o No. 5 seed if New York loses twice.
o No. 8 seed if New York wins once.

 

LOS ANGELES (26-32)
• Ends with 26, 27, or 28 wins
o Eliminated.

[AlwaysinModeration]

You forgot to list what happens if Oakland finishes with 38 wins. (Slacker).

[Otto von Ballpark]

You forgot to list what happens if Oakland finishes with 38 wins. (Slacker).

In case anyone is wondering, it is same thing that happens if they finish with 37 wins.

[IndianaTwin]

 

You forgot to list what happens if Oakland finishes with 38 wins. (Slacker).

 

Yeah, I also caught that I missed that the Twins can get the No. 7 seed if they win 35 games and Cleveland wins twice and Chicago wins one, but I couldn't go back and edit.

 

Also, in Yankees end with 33 wins, it should be "No. 5 seed if TORONTO loses..."  

 

[And thank goodness I don't care about the NL, since there are still 11 teams in play. It does look like No. 1 (LA), 2 (Atl), and 4 (SD) are set, with the Cubs' magic number at 1 against St. Louis for the No. 3 seed.]

[insagt1]

excellent work!!! I love this playoff format. They should keep it. It keeps more fans engaged after 4th of July and face it....fans love post season. They should keep this and they should keep the DH for both leagues. They should keep the 3 batter rule for relievers. As for the extra inning rule....I have never been a fan...but it does get the job done, and it adds a bit of drama immediately. I consider it a gimmick like the shoot out in hockey and should never be used in post season...but if they do decide to keep it, I won;t argue the point.

[IndianaTwin]

With the Yankees win over Florida, nothing is finalized, though things tighten a bit for other teams.

• Toronto now needs to win both its games and hope for a Yankee loss tomorrow to climb into the No. 5 seed.
• Nor have the Yankees caught Chicago or Cleveland to reach the No. 4 seed, but those teams' margin for error is a little less. A win by either tonight will lock the Central runner-up into the 4 seed and the East runner-up into the 5, however.

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

Similarly, with Oakland's loss in Game 1, no seeding orders have changed, though things tighten a bit. The Twins and A's are each at 35-23, though Oakland has the tiebreaker advantage.

 

Interestingly, if the A's and White Sox tie at 36 wins, the A's have the tiebreaker advantage by virtue of their intradivisional record, but if they tie at 35 games, the White Sox have the tiebreaker because each will have 25 divisional wins, but the White Sox will have a better record in the last 20. 

 

Oakland has the tiebreaker advantage on Cleveland. 

[IndianaTwin]

Things are much shorter after Saturday's games: 

 

Tampa Bay (39-20):

• Locked into the No. 1 seed.

Minnesota (36-23)

• No. 2 seed with a win OR a loss and losses by Oakland and Chicago
• No. 3 seed with a loss, a win by Oakland, and a loss by Chicago
• No. 4 seed with a loss and a win by Chicago.

Oakland (35-24)

• No. 2 seed with a win and a loss by Minnesota
• No. 3 seed with a loss or a win by Minnesota  

Chicago (35-24)

• No. 2 with a win and losses by Minnesota and Oakland.
• No. 3 with a win, a loss by Minnesota, and a win by Oakland.
• No. 4 with a loss or a win by Minnesota.
• No. 7 with a loss and a Cleveland win.

New York (33-26)

• No. 5 seed with a win or a Toronto loss.
• No. 8 seed with a loss and a Toronto win.

Houston (29-30)

• Locked into the No. 6 seed.

Cleveland (34-25)

• No. 4 with a win and a Chicago loss.
• No. 7 with a loss or a Chicago win.

Toronto (32-27)

• No. 5 seed with a win and a New York loss
• No. 8 seed with a loss or a New York win

[amjgt]

[amjgt]

Side note: My personal belief is the the Twins have guaranteed their right to fly a “2020 Central Division Champions“ banner. Normally when there is a tie, a game 163 is played to determine a champ. There is no such thing this year. So in my mind there would be co-champions and the tiebreaker is used for seeding purposes. Basically, if you aren’t settling it on the field, then it’s co-champs. I’d be willing to listen to an argument that if one team won the season series, it was settled on the field, but in this case, we tied the season series.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Shorter playoff chart so that confused people like me don’t spend all morning on this:

 

If the Twins win, they probably host Cleveland, but maybe Chicago (75-25%).

 

If the Twins lose... scoreboard watch. Could be Houston, White Sox, Yankees, outside chance of Toronto.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Shorter playoff chart so that confused people like me don’t spend all morning on this:

If the Twins win, they probably host Cleveland, but maybe Chicago (75-25%).

If the Twins lose... scoreboard watch. Could be Houston, White Sox, Yankees, outside chance of Toronto.

According to the flow chart above it's possible for us to lose and play Cleveland.

[IndianaTwin]

 

According to the flow chart above it's possible for us to lose and play Cleveland.

 

Yes, Chicago has the tiebreaker on Minnesota, so if the Twins lose, Chicago also has lose for the Twins to win the division. Similarly, Oakland has the tiebreaker on Minnesota, so if the Twins lose, the A's also have to lose to keep Minnesota in the No. 2 seed. 

 

Similarly, Cleveland has the tiebreaker on Chicago, so if Chicago loses, Cleveland also needs to lose to stay behind Chicago and get the No. 7 seed. 

 

So if these were coin flips, it would be a 1 in 16 chance of all four teams losing. 

[IndianaTwin]

Similarly, by coin flips, there are two chances in eight that the Minnesota/Chicago/Oakland games would result in Minnesota being the No. 4 seed. There are three chances in four that New York is in the No. 5 seed. So that makes 6 chances of 32 (18.75 percent) that the Twins host New York. 

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous, I'll offer these as "coin-flip" percentages...

 

1-8 series: 

Toronto at Tampa Bay = 75%

New York at Tampa Bay = 25%

 

2-7 series:

Chicago at Minnesota = 15.63%

Cleveland at Minnesota = 46.88%

Chicago at Oakland = 6.25%

Cleveland at Oakland = 18.75%

Cleveland at Chicago = 12.5%

 

3-6 series:

Houston at Minnesota = 12.5%

Houston at Oakland = 75%

Houston at Chicago = 12.5

 

4-5 series

Toronto at Chicago = 18.75%

New York at Chicago = 56.25%

Toronto at Minnesota = 6.25%

New York at Minnesota = 18.75%

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

According to the flow chart above it's possible for us to lose and play Cleveland.

Correct — thanks!

[Nine of twelve]

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous, I'll offer these as "coin-flip" percentages...

 

1-8 series: 

Toronto at Tampa Bay = 75%

New York at Tampa Bay = 25%

 

2-7 series:

Chicago at Minnesota = 15.63%

Cleveland at Minnesota = 46.88%

Chicago at Oakland = 6.25%

Cleveland at Oakland = 18.75%

Cleveland at Chicago = 12.5%

 

3-6 series:

Houston at Minnesota = 12.5%

Houston at Oakland = 75%

Houston at Chicago = 12.5

 

4-5 series

Toronto at Chicago = 18.75%

New York at Chicago = 56.25%

Toronto at Minnesota = 6.25%

New York at Minnesota = 18.75%

This is awesome! Now give us the probabilities of all possible sets of four first-round series. (JK)

[Nine of twelve]

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous, I'll offer these as "coin-flip" percentages...

 

1-8 series: 

Toronto at Tampa Bay = 75%

New York at Tampa Bay = 25%

 

2-7 series:

Chicago at Minnesota = 15.63%

Cleveland at Minnesota = 46.88%

Chicago at Oakland = 6.25%

Cleveland at Oakland = 18.75%

Cleveland at Chicago = 12.5%

 

3-6 series:

Houston at Minnesota = 12.5%

Houston at Oakland = 75%

Houston at Chicago = 12.5

 

4-5 series

Toronto at Chicago = 18.75%

New York at Chicago = 56.25%

Toronto at Minnesota = 6.25%

New York at Minnesota = 18.75%

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:

 

Cle at Min: 46.875%

NYY at Min: 18.75%

CWS at Min: 15.625%

Hou at Min: 12.5%

Tor at Min: 6.25%

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:

 

Cle at Min: 46.875%

NYY at Min: 18.75%

CWS at Min: 15.625%

Hou at Min: 12.5%

Tor at Min: 6.25%

This is what I was trying to figure out this morning

[IndianaTwin]

 

This is awesome! Now give us the probabilities of all possible sets of four first-round series. (JK)

 

Don’t tempt me. 

[Jimv]

 

Knowing just enough about probability to be dangerous I'll condense this to list only the probabilities for the Twins:

 

Cle at Min: 46.875%

NYY at Min: 18.75%

CWS at Min: 15.625%

Hou at Min: 12.5%

Tor at Min: 6.25%

White sox losing big to the cubs right now.    Still early, but if that holds, this is simplified.    If the Twins lose and Oakland wins, then the twins are 3rd seed and play Houston.    All the prior analysis was based on the assumption that every team has a 50-50 chance to win any given game, so based on that, there's a 25% chance we play Houston.     Then there's a 75% chance we play the 7th seed, and since the Sox losing is the basis for this analysis, I think Cleveland is 7th if they lose and Sox are 7th if Cleveland wins.    So, if I haven't made a mistake, we have the following:

37.5 % chance of playing the Sox  

37.5% chance of playing Cleveland

25% chance of playing Houston.

[Nine of twelve]

 

White sox losing big to the cubs right now. Still early, but if that holds, this is simplified. So, if I haven't made a mistake, we have the following:

37.5 % chance of playing the Sox  

37.5% chance of playing Cleveland

25% chance of playing Houston.

I think this is correct. A Min loss and an Oak win gives us Hou. A Min win gives us 50/50 between CWS and Cle, as does a Min loss and and Oak loss.

[Old Twins Cap]

And we get the 'Stros.

 

Bring them on, without an Ace.

 

Like it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And we get the 'Stros.

 

Bring them on, without an Ace.

 

Like it.

No ace, but the 3 starters they have lined up are pretty good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No ace, but the 3 starters they have lined up are pretty good.

Ace is so subjective anyway. Is Grienke an “ace”? I could be swayed in either direction.