Scott Feldman, the Cubs, and how Theo Epstien is making Terry Ryan's life miserable

[Brock Beauchamp]

Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

[jokin]

Free agents, like the overwhelming majority of human brings, follow the money. For every free agents that takes a team-friendly deal, I can show you 20 that followed the dollars. It's a low enough percentage to be unimportant. If the Twins want a good pitcher, they can get one.

 

The 20 that followed the dollars can often make a boatload more money through leveraging their deal through enhanced performance on a winning team and through outside endorsements that could vastly ouststrip the extra million dollars/yr that the Twins might pay. Watch which teams receive the most minutes of coverage on Baseball Tonight and correlate that to endorsement deals and future Free Agency.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Using that thinking, Miami was the largest city in the US last year and Houston is smaller than Milwaukee. Every city has endorsement opportunities and the Twin Cities are right in the middle of the pack. I've never seen any indication that some teams are better at drawing free agents than others once you get past the Yankees and Dodgers of the world.

[John Bonnes]

It's interesting to me that there are several middle-tier starting pitching free agents that are signing before the top guys do. There are usually a few, but I don't remember this many in the past. The Cubs and Royals are being aggressive and chasing these guys - Baker, Feldman, E Santana, Guthrie. Everybody else who has signed has just re-signed with their team.

 

It's a little weird that two team (three if you count the Blue Jays) have driven so much spending so early. I wonder if Theo/Dayton are reading a nutso market or if they're just trying to take care of business early? All three GMs are kind of sabr darlings, too. It'll be interesting to see what we think of these signings at the end of the offseason, or at the end of the season.

[John Bonnes]

I'll add one thing to my post above....

 

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

 

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.

[Kwak]

I actually think that is the optimistic scenario, which makes me kind of sad. But, as I posted months ago, what team has ever signed 3 legit starting pitchers in one year (not three that turned out that way, but paid that up front)?

 

Even two such signings seem like a relative rarity. And it seems like an absurdly optimistic scenario for the Twins relative to their history. There's still plenty of time for Ryan to prove that wrong, but the deals handed out to Guthrie, Baker, and Feldman make that possibility appear even less likely.

I think Ryan only said "three new starting pitchers"--he didn't qualify/embellish the statement with "legit", or "established", etc. He could accomplish said task through trades for high minor league guy(s) and promote them to the rotation, "over-the-hill" veterans, "spot starters", or use theRule 5 draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, Ryan never said three legit starting pitchers, that would be what I would do...because winning is my top priority as a fan. And, frankly, they have the money to spend if they really want to.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll add one thing to my post above....

 

At the beginning of this offseason, if I had to hope how Ryan would handle shopping for starting pitching, I would have said that I hoped he waited and let the market come to him. There was so much talent on the board and the class was so deep that he was going to have some decent guys fall into his lap if he could just be patient. When he said in our interview that he felt he needed to be aggressive, I cringed.

 

The salaries are higher than I anticipated, but the class is still just as deep. Now, maybe a few teams like the Cubs/Royals/Blue Jays are going to drive up the demand a bit higher than I thought, but I'd still need to be be convinced this isn't the right strategy.

 

 

Wait how long, and for how many good pitchers to be signed? What does this mean, in your mind?

[bird]

mike wants wins, you're correct in saying the Twins have the money. They CAN afford two "legitimate" FA pitchers, say, a Marcum and a McCarthy. AND, IN ADDITION they can trade for a second #2-3, even afford to sweeten a deal by paying some of Morneau's salary to seal a deal, for example. Ryan said he won't encounter financial constraints in going about solving the problem. This is important.

 

So, if he does what many expect- strictly bargain-hunting and dumpster-diving- giving us nothing more than over-the hill vets like Marquis, rule 5 bets, and Feldman types, he will earn every ounce of criticism.

 

My theory is he's not being aggressive on these initial fringe guys like Baker and Feldman because they're a dime a dozen and he already has a half-dozen of them. Let's see.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, let's see. There are still pitchers out there, and OFers to be traded....

[Linus]

Nothin is happen because the big guns haven't come up yet. it' just testing the waters.. Haven't any of you done auction drafts? Haven't any of you made trades? I have made thousands of them.

 

TR should have spent the last 3 months getting his ducks in a row and picking off the low-hanging fruit in the month of November to show the league and the fanbase the seriousness of his intent. As another poster just said, this club needs both quantity and quality. A couple of legit, albeit lower-impact major leaguers should already be on the 2013 roster via trade or FA.

That Baker signed elsewhere implies either of the following to me: a) Ryan has seriously underestimated the price of starting pitching or every pitcher that receives "a final offer from the Twins "will immediately shop it" and sign elsewhere for slightly more, thus forcing the Twins to make "a blow-away" offer in order to sign a pitcher.

 

Or that he didn't want to use part of his money on an injury prone, inconsistent starter coming off Tommy John surgery who likely won't be ready to start the season and whose effectiveness is a complete unknown going forward. Everybody seems to be glossing over that many guys that have TJ never come back even close to what they once were. This might work out for the Cubs but let's get over the idea that this signing is some lead pipe cinch for success.

[TheLeviathan]

Or that he didn't want to use part of his money on an injury prone, inconsistent starter coming off Tommy John surgery who likely won't be ready to start the season and whose effectiveness is a complete unknown going forward. Everybody seems to be glossing over that many guys that have TJ never come back even close to what they once were. This might work out for the Cubs but let's get over the idea that this signing is some lead pipe cinch for success.

 

Which FA pitchers don't have blemishes? You seem to imply there are some.

[Linus]

I would consider those major question marks, not blemishes.

[TheLeviathan]

Whether you call them "major" "semi-major" "sorta-kinda" or whatever kind of question marks your analysis fails to take into account the fact that Baker got 1 year and 5M. Edwin Jackson - he of serious consistency issues - may cost double that a year and several times that in guaranteed money overall.

 

If you're waiting for this particular free agent class to yield you a guy without question marks at a reasonable price, I also have heard about an apocalypse coming that you want to stock up for at the low, low markup price of 700%. Instead, it's far more reasonable to look at things through the prism of how much money did they invest for what kind of risk. By the end of this offseason 5M in guaranteed money may look very reasonable for that set of risks. I'd bet it will with the money floating around.

[Kwak]

Whether you call them "major" "semi-major" "sorta-kinda" or whatever kind of question marks your analysis fails to take into account the fact that Baker got 1 year and 5M. Edwin Jackson - he of serious consistency issues - may cost double that a year and several times that in guaranteed money overall.

 

If you're waiting for this particular free agent class to yield you a guy without question marks at a reasonable price, I also have heard about an apocalypse coming that you want to stock up for at the low, low markup price of 700%. Instead, it's far more reasonable to look at things through the prism of how much money did they invest for what kind of risk. By the end of this offseason 5M in guaranteed money may look very reasonable for that set of risks. I'd bet it will with the money floating around.

I totally agree, Ryan wouldn't have offered Baker a contract if he wasn't convinced he was worth the risk. I think the offer got "shopped" and Baker signed with the Cubs. I also don't think that Baker will be held to some predetermined innings limit. IIRC, Liriano pitched nearly 200 innings at all levels of baseball in 2008.

[Shane Wahl]

Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

 

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

 

A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

 

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

 

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

[Shane Wahl]

TR was on talkin' Twins last night.

 

After listening the three things I cam away from the discussion. I"m para-phrasing here, so give me a little latitude.

 

1) Essentially all of the free agent money will be devoted to Pitching.

2) Signing prior to the winter meetings tend to be overpriced.

3) He is expecting to sign enough quality starting pitching so that the team can compete in 2013

 

The Jury is obviously still out, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt until we start to see him actually make some moves.

 

He either knows what he is doing and will put together a quality pitching staff or the game has passed him by and it is time for a change. Either way we should know on April 1st.

 

Exactly. The Twins could have signed Edwin Jackson late-ish last season after all. And they should have. Again, the Cubs are stupid.

[Nick Nelson]

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

I think this is a different animal. Basically every signing we've seen thus far has been higher than expected (significantly so in some cases) and the big-market teams have barely dipped their toes in the water.

[Riverbrian]

Cue the Counting Crows...

 

It'll be "A long December" (if everyone goes nuts and throws tomatoes at Terry Ryan every time a player signs with another team)

 

"And there's reason to believe... Maybe this year will be better than the last" (it has to get better...TR has said he's focused on pitching)

 

"I can't remember the last thing that you said" (I can't remember **** these days).

[jokin]

Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

 

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

 

A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

 

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

 

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

 

I think what you're saying was once true, but things are quickly changing just below the surface for the Cubs. They were very shrewd signing Maholm last year and flipping him for a top-10 pitching prospect from the Braves (Vizcaino) along with another good looking pitcher ( a scenario I begged the Twins to take by signing Maholm, Bedard and Jackson last spring).

 

As a Cubs fan, you do realize that between FA, trades and waiver acquisitions (another area where Ryan has been lacking, especially in such an advantageous position), the Cubs have acquired 10 RHP since July 31, right?!? They offloaded some hefty salaries ( and they have 3 more PTBNL picks coming besides) and got another top-10 infielder (Christian Villenueva). They established the future direction of the team when they signed Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler (going to be a monster) to relatively inexpensive long-term deals. And they got Rob Deer in as a hitting coach.

 

If things don't pan out in the first half of 2013, as is likely, they just flip these one-year contracts and unload more salaries for more prospects. Lather, Rinse, Repeat. Watch out come 2014.

 

 

If Terry Ryan could only have been just half as "stupid" as the Cubs have been over the last 7 months.

[beckmt]

Let's see here. I do not think Feldman was a viable option. Twins are talking to Liarino's agent according to mlbtraderumors. Do Lianino have more stuff than Baker, could Bobby Cuellar fix him, will he be cheap. Probably all three and most of the posters here would not like the risk. Read the mlbtraderumors part on the AL Central. They expect the Twins to make some trades and sign some pitchers, and while not always close to correct have many sources. Expect Span to be in a deal for some pitching along with maybe another player or two Then still hope for 1 major FA signing (Marcum is my choice). McCartney would not be bad. See what happens and discuss this after the winter meetings.

Liriano is exactly the type of pitcher referred above with a higher upside and probably cheaper. Did not see this coming, but while not my choice would not be the worst thing in the world.

[Shane Wahl]

Just because two terrible teams like the Cubs and Royals are overpaying for garbage doesn't mean the rest of the teams are going to follow suit.

 

Feldman for 6 million is a freaking joke. Anything over 2.5 mil for him is overpaying.

 

A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

The Cubs aren't doing the Twins any favors, that's for sure.

 

This is just false. First, the Cubs organization is very, very stupid. And they are my second favorite team, by far. They are just dumb.

 

Anyway, how short memories are. Remember Mark Buehrle? He got a RIDICULOUS contract.early last offseason and the market subsequently fell for a bunch of pitchers. I am not sure how to respond to such immediate responses like this. Good grief.

 

I think what you're saying was once true, but things are quickly changing just below the surface for the Cubs. They were very shrewd signing Maholm last year and flipping him for a top-10 pitching prospect from the Braves (Vizcaino) along with another good looking pitcher ( a scenario I begged the Twins to take by signing Maholm, Bedard and Jackson last spring).

 

As a Cubs fan, you do realize that between FA, trades and waiver acquisitions (another area where Ryan has been lacking, especially in such an advantageous position), the Cubs have acquired 10 RHP since July 31, right?!? They offloaded some hefty salaries ( and they have 3 more PTBNL picks coming besides) and got another top-10 infielder (Christian Villenueva). They established the future direction of the team when they signed Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler (going to be a monster) to relatively inexpensive long-term deals. And they got Rob Deer in as a hitting coach.

 

If things don't pan out in the first half of 2013, as is likely, they just flip these one-year contracts and unload more salaries for more prospects. Lather, Rinse, Repeat. Watch out come 2014.

 

 

If Terry Ryan could only have been just half as "stupid" as the Cubs have been over the last 7 months.

 

Ok, that is a fair analysis. The Cubs are taking the view that they can spend money to trade for prospects as well (which the Twins foolishly didn't do in 2012. The Maholm trade was remarkable. Still though, that team makes Soriano kind of contracts and trades prospects for Matt Garza. They got rid of Matt Murton for no reason, and didn't bother with keeping Aramis for whatever dumb reason.

[snepp]

Still though, that team makes Soriano kind of contracts and trades prospects for Matt Garza. They got rid of Matt Murton for no reason, and didn't bother with keeping Aramis for whatever dumb reason.

 

And how much of that are the new decision makers responsible for?