2019 2020 (non-Twins) off season

[Mike Sixel]

My first prediction is that WA signs their two big possible FAs to extensions.

 

My next is that Cole goes to LAA.

 

The White Sox sign two good/medium staring pitchers fast in FA.

[Vanimal46]

Kenley Jansen is not opting out of the 2/$38 million left on his contract. No surprise there.

[Vanimal46]

[In My La Z boy]

My prediction - 2 blockbuster trades this winter. 2 extensions I am not in on a big ticket free agent signing;

Rosario/Alcala/Duran for Darvish/Kimbrell

Buxton/Balazovic for Synderggard

Sign extensions on both Berrios and Sano

[Squirrel]

Just to remind everyone ... this is a NON-TWINS discussion thread. While it's difficult to keep the Twins completely out of the discussion, because, well, there will be moments of 'Wish we could have made a deal for him' regarding a player going to another team, and this is a Twins fan site, but please leave this thread clear of 'The Twins should trade so and so for so and so.' Those discussions need to take place in the Twins Talk forum. This is an aggregator thread of sorts to keep track of moves and signings and what not for the rest of MLB apart from the Twins.

 

Thanks.

[In My La Z boy]

Sorry - read it as both Twins and Non-Twins;

I predict the Cubs will try to move Darvish and Kimbrell

I predict the Mets move Syndergaard

[nicksaviking]

My prediction: Chicago Cubs firesale.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Also, Boston, despite printing cash is all in on sustainable winning being their new thing, despite actually, you know, being one of the best teams in baseball for a decade......we all know that's code for cost cutting, so Boston will be dealing.

[Vanimal46]

My prediction: Chicago Cubs firesale.

I'm intrigued what that would look like... Can't imagine anyone taking on Lester, Heyward, or Kimbrel's contract without eating a good chunk of change.

 

Bryant and Rizzo have awesome trade value but who has the farm system to trade for them?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My prediction: Chicago Cubs firesale.

Why? And how would that look? They were a 90 win Pythag team last year, and aren't losing anybody too notable.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why? And how would that look? They were a 90 win Pythag team last year, and aren't losing anybody too notable.

 

To be more "sustainably successful" I assume.

[biggentleben]

 

I'm intrigued what that would look like... Can't imagine anyone taking on Lester, Heyward, or Kimbrel's contract without eating a good chunk of change.

Bryant and Rizzo have awesome trade value but who has the farm system to trade for them?

 

A lot of teams when you consider the contract versus replacement prospects. Not many WANT Rizzo, but I could see Bryant drawing interest from many of the biggest farm systems - Padres, Rays, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and I could even see the Twins having interest if Sano is moved to first.

[Mike Sixel]

This is a great resource......

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

[Mike Sixel]

Strasburg to opt out, apparently.....

[SwainZag]

 

Strasburg to opt out, apparently.....

 

Yep! Officially.

 

[Vanimal46]

[nicksaviking]

Why? And how would that look? They were a 90 win Pythag team last year, and aren't losing anybody too notable.

Well playing the prediction game isn’t fun if they don’t come out of left field.

 

But if I were to analyze the take further, I guess I’d say their rotation is old, expensive and mediocre; it’s hard to see how that unit can improve and take the next step. They just let go of their WS winning manager. They have some good players who they’re either going to have to extend soon or watch walk away, but probably not enough good young players to make a sustainable run.

 

But mostly, they’re the third best team in their division and have an awful farm system. The two teams ahead of them, Milwaukee and St. Louis also have terrible farms; it might be a good idea to beat those two to the upswing in the ever fluid race to load up on young cheap talent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But mostly, they’re the third best team in their division and have an awful farm system. The two teams ahead of them, Milwaukee and St. Louis also have terrible farms; it might be a good idea to beat those two to the upswing in the ever fluid race to load up on young cheap talent.

The Cubs had 90 Pythag wins and the Brewers 81 (and the Cards 92) -- are we really sure the Cubs are the 3rd best in their division? Or did they just happen to finish 3rd this year?

 

The Cubs were basically 3rd in the *league* in both OPS+ and ERA+ in 2019, with basically the same marks as the champ Nationals. STL had a notably worse OPS+ and MIL a notably worse ERA+.

 

Yeah, Flaherty looks pretty great for the Cards, but their other SP aren't all that young or great either (Hudson had pretty poor peripherals this year). Milwaukee's got Yelich but lots of holes too.

 

More to the point -- what would your hypothetical Cubs firesale look like?

[nicksaviking]

 

 

More to the point -- what would your hypothetical Cubs firesale look like?

 

I guess, hypothetically, if they were going to do the firesale, they'd maybe want to shed the big money in the rotation? A year ago Darvish's contract would have been unthinkable to move, they could maybe sell high on him and market him as an alternative to the losers who miss out on Cole/Strasburg. Offer to eat some of the Lester money for a mid-level prospect and put some feelers out to see if any club is interested in Quintana at his option year contract price. Maybe keep Hendricks for now, but do the whole thing where you leak that 'they'd need to be blown away' for an offer for him. 

 

Rizzo is going to be 30 but he's still productive, if they were inclined they could probably move him for some decent talent. Finally move Schwarber to an AL club as is rumored every single year. 

 

Hang on to Contreras as he still has a lot of team control, but like Mitch Garver, he'll be too old of a catcher to extend by the time his original contract is up.

 

Then maybe look to extend Bryant and Baez. Though, Baez might be a sneaky sell high candidate. If the baseballs do get de-juiced, his high strikeout/low walk profile make him one of those players who will most likely take the biggest hit in production.

[Seth Stohs]

 

[Seth Stohs]

https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1191389960378568704 

 

[biggentleben]

I wrote a monster of a piece on the Braves, but it covered a bit on every team this offseason in relation to the Braves:

http://videobaseballscout.com/atlanta-braves-2019-2020-offseason-overview/

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wrote a monster of a piece on the Braves, but it covered a bit on every team this offseason in relation to the Braves:

http://videobaseballscout.com/atlanta-braves-2019-2020-offseason-overview/

 

good stuff.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

The Braves did the exact same thing with Markakis. 

 

Both players get the same amount of money, each with the buy out of 2M and each with one year deals of 4M for a total of 6M. Picking up the options on each would have cost 6M a piece. 

 

So... I'm thinking... OK, by doing it this way, even though the players get the exact same money, they shave 4 million total of the payroll number. This makes sense, everyone should be happy. 

 

But, then I think some more... What does it matter if the payroll is 168 Million or 164 million? 

 

It occurs to me, that the only way the 4 million matters is if they get near the competitive balance threshold of 208 Million. If you are dancing near that line... the 4 million matters. 

 

These low level moves by the Braves to me... Is an announcement that the Braves plan on adding significant payroll this year. Around 70 Million potentially if my math is right. 

 

I think we can safely add the Braves to the Cole, Rendon and Strauburg discussion. Might be the strongest candidate to trade for Mookie Betts as well. 

[nicksaviking]

Cleveland outrighted A.J. Cole? Is there more to his story that I'm missing, because after being a one-time well regarded prospect, I thought he finally looked like he put it together last year with Cleveland now that he became a full-time bullpen arm. He's still got tons of control left too. Is he hurt? Because if not, he's a guy I'd be just fine bringing in for a low risk shot at the pen.

 

Also, they finally cut the cord on Danny Salazar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Braves did the exact same thing with Markakis. 

 

Both players get the same amount of money, each with the buy out of 2M and each with one year deals of 4M for a total of 6M. Picking up the options on each would have cost 6M a piece. 

 

So... I'm thinking... OK, by doing it this way, even though the players get the exact same money, they shave 4 million total of the payroll number. This makes sense, everyone should be happy. 

 

But, then I think some more... What does it matter if the payroll is 168 Million or 164 million? 

 

It occurs to me, that the only way the 4 million matters is if they get near the competitive balance threshold of 208 Million. If you are dancing near that line... the 4 million matters. 

 

These low level moves by the Braves to me... Is an announcement that the Braves plan on adding significant payroll this year. Around 70 Million potentially if my math is right. 

 

I think we can safely add the Braves to the Cole, Rendon and Strauburg discussion. Might be the strongest candidate to trade for Mookie Betts as well. 

 

I doubt the Braves spend *that* much this offseason.

 

It's probably just for their internal budgeting. Fans don't like it, but a lot of teams have target payroll allocations each year, and don't carry over shortfalls to the next year.

 

These buyouts lets the Braves use a little 2019 shortfall to help stay under their 2020 target. Probably similar in effect to the Twins front-loading the Polanco and Kepler extensions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cleveland outrighted A.J. Cole? Is there more to his story that I'm missing, because after being a one-time well regarded prospect, I thought he finally looked like he put it together last year with Cleveland now that he became a full-time bullpen arm. He's still got tons of control left too. Is he hurt? Because if not, he's a guy I'd be just fine bringing in for a low risk shot at the pen.

AJ Cole went on the IL for a "right shoulder impingement" on August 10th to end his season, so I'm guessing there's an injury factor here.

 

Cole cleared waivers back in February 2019 too, so I guess he baseline value wasn't all that high either.

[Bomba2026]

Explain why a player like Rendon or Strasberg would want to go to another team? If I were a player I would want to stay with a proven winner Unless I did not like my teamates (coworkers)....Does the $ really mean that much that you want to go to a bad team? I sincerely don't get it..thx!

[Riverbrian]

I doubt the Braves spend *that* much this offseason.

 

It's probably just for their internal budgeting. Fans don't like it, but a lot of teams have target payroll allocations each year, and don't carry over shortfalls to the next year.

 

These buyouts lets the Braves use a little 2019 shortfall to help stay under their 2020 target. Probably similar in effect to the Twins front-loading the Polanco and Kepler extensions.

I agree. I’m sure all teams have budget guidelines to work with but I’d hate to think a contending team is executing a hard line in terms of payroll to the degree that 4 million would matter.

 

I agree spending 70 million will be hard but trade for Mookie and you are half way there.

 

Who knows.

[Vanimal46]

San Francisco gives Will Smith a qualifying offer... I guess that's one way to get some value back after not trading him.