Red Sox fire GM Dave Dombrowski

[bird]

 

Let's talk about the Red Sox "gutting" the farm:

Chris Sale trade:

Yoan Moncada - finally living up to his #1 overall prospect hype 3 years after they traded him. 2 years service time now.

Michael Kopech - lots of hype, blew out his arm and missed 2019.

Luis Basabe - career .695 OPS in AA. Entering age 23 season in 2020.

Victor Diaz - out of baseball

Craig Kimbrel Trade:

Manuel Margot - 1.5 bWAR player the last 2 years. 6.1 total bWAR.

Javy Guerra - no bat SS. .665 career OPS in the minors.

Logan Allen - Now on Cleveland Indians.

Carlos Asuaje - now a 27 year old no bat 2B toiling in Arizona's system.

Drew Pomeranz trade:

Anderson Espinoza - out of baseball.

He actually did a good job keeping the young core together that we are familiar with. There were rumors in the past of trading Benintendi for Hamels. He was also reluctant to trade Boegarts and Devers as well.

Can anyone show me where he "gutted" the Red Sox farm system?

 

I rely on farm system rankings. Prior to the 2019 Rule 4, Fangraphs ranked their farm system dead last. Yep. 30th best. Maybe others get credit for some of that. But I think the loss of Kopech and Moncada alone soured the pundits on their system.

[nicksaviking]

 

because they care more about making more millions than winning......that's why every team is doing it. Also, they've somehow convinced fans that this is a good idea. Money>winning.

 

I think developing a strong farm system is important even if you are spending money. He's a square peg for a round hole in 2019. 

 

Nothing has to be his fault, there doesn't have to be something that he's done wrong, but most folks on this site were asking for a change in Gardy and Ryan's 20th century approach to baseball long before the team hit rock bottom; our team was absolutely not proactive. With their payroll the Red Sox will never be at the nadir the Twins were at, but they sure can wallow in mediocrity if they don't watch out. What's wrong with seeing new trends and adjusting your team's strategy, especially once your arch rival has made it clear that they're now king of the division?

[Tomj14]

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

How do you down play a world series and two division titles?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don't you think ownership would have hamstrung him and prevented him from spending? Don't you think Scherzer/Cabrera type deals are a lot fewer and far between? He was not some trading savant.

He would have been allowed to spend the Zimmermann and Upton money that Al Avila spent, for sure. (And even the Pelfrey money. ) Remember, they were still a contending club, with 86 wins that first year after he left.

 

At that point, maybe they're still respectable enough in 2017 that they don't have to salary dump Verlander and JD Martinez -- maybe they're even able to QO and re-sign JD, who is aging well so far in Boston. The whole coaching focus could have turned out different too, instead of Gardy/Anderson.

 

Dombrowski may not be a trading savant, but he made a lot of good deals in Detroit, even beyond Cabrera and Scherzer: Guillen, Polanco, Fister, Sanchez, Price. Even got Fulmer and Boyd on his way out the door. His worst deal was sending away Suarez, although to be fair he kind of came out of nowhere for Cincinnati.

 

No guarantees, of course, but I think these circumstances mitigate some of his culpability for the Avila/Gardy/Anderson 2019 Tigers.

[Vanimal46]

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

I would trade Lewis and Graterol as well for a 28 year old stud pitcher like Sale. Perhaps you're too negative about Sale's one injury riddled year? Is there any indication he's not going to bounce back next year?

[Vanimal46]

I rely on farm system rankings. Prior to the 2019 Rule 4, Fangraphs ranked their farm system dead last. Yep. 30th best. Maybe others get credit for some of that. But I think the loss of Kopech and Moncada alone soured the pundits on their system.

He developed and graduated several top prospects during his tenure... And traded away the "cream of the crop" before they declined to nothing.

 

Moncada is a good to great player. Kopech has a chance to be good 1-2 years down the line.

 

Anderson Espinoza on Fangraphs was a 70 FV player (can't miss!) and was out of baseball 2 years after.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-farm-systems-ranked-by-surplus-war/

 

You know this very well, Bird. Rankings are just that, rankings. I'll take a #30 farm system for a WS title over a top 5 farm system with decent results like our Twins.

[bird]

 

"We'll see" about the Verlander and Moncada trades? Verlander has been awesome for multiple years and the prospects marginal at best. Sale already won Boston a World Series, and the Red Sox have a 3B who is arguably better than Moncada with equal years of control remaining.

 

That's a pretty extreme standard of reserving judgement, no? Why not equally reserve judgement about the Falvey/Levine approach?

 

 

I am reserving judgment about both equally. I don't conflate liking their strategy with judging it a success. Similarly, while I have very little confidence in my own opinion on such things, I very much think Houston made a great trade for Verlander, and I very much think Boston mad a good trade for Sale. But I don't conflate that with the possibility that Chicago and Detroit might end up relly liking the trades too, especially Chicago. Kopech isn't some slouch. He was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball prior to the injury. The pros like Basabe a lot better than anyone the Twins are sending to the AFL not named Lewis, and Moncada is someone we'll grow to hate I think. The Verlander trade leaves less doubt, but pitcher Perez is everything we hope Balosovic is, Daz Cameron is a first rounder who had a breakout season, and Jake the catcher is in MLB, albeit looking pathetic in the process.

 

I want our FO to get to where Cleveland is. Enough prospect depth to feel like you can move Trevor Bauer, with guys like Bieber and Cleavenger stepping up, and guys like Civale, Plezac, and Plutko being serviceable in the back end. I think that's where we're headed in fits and starts. 

[bird]

 

How do you down play a world series and two division titles?

 

 

You don't.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

 

Sale is also a stud, and he helped them win a WS. If you won't trade studs for great players, you'll never trade for great players. Oh, and they still have a great 3B in Boston.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am reserving judgment about both equally. I don't conflate liking their strategy with judging it a success. Similarly, while I have very little confidence in my own opinion on such things, I very much think Houston made a great trade for Verlander, and I very much think Boston mad a good trade for Sale. But I don't conflate that with the possibility that Chicago and Detroit might end up relly liking the trades too, especially Chicago. Kopech isn't some slouch. He was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball prior to the injury. The pros like Basabe a lot better than anyone the Twins are sending to the AFL not named Lewis, and Moncada is someone we'll grow to hate I think. The Verlander trade leaves less doubt, but pitcher Perez is everything we hope Balosovic is, Daz Cameron is a first rounder who had a breakout season, and Jake the catcher is in MLB, albeit looking pathetic in the process.

 

I want our FO to get to where Cleveland is. Enough prospect depth to feel like you can move Trevor Bauer, with guys like Bieber and Cleavenger stepping up, and guys like Civale, Plezac, and Plutko being serviceable in the back end. I think that's where we're headed in fits and starts. 

 

Chicago also winning the trade does not mean Boston lost it. Take Sale away, and add another hitter to that team, do they win a WS? Probably not. Because they aren't winning this year mostly because the pitching isn't as good as the last three years.....

[bird]

 

He developed and graduated several top prospects during his tenure... And traded away the "cream of the crop" before they declined to nothing.

Moncada is a good to great player. Kopech has a chance to be good 1-2 years down the line.

Anderson Espinoza on Fangraphs was a 70 FV player (can't miss!) and was out of baseball 2 years after.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-farm-systems-ranked-by-surplus-war/

You know this very well, Bird. Rankings are just that, rankings. I'll take a #30 farm system for a WS title over a top 5 farm system with decent results like our Twins.

 

 

I get why you'd make that trade. Maybe because I lived a few blocks from the stadium and soaked in every minute of the 1987 WS in that dump I feel differently. 

 

Your link to the FG spreadsheet? Do you realize that perhaps not a single player in the Twins current lineup would have been represented in that analysis? Okay, maybe Buxton.

 

That means, according to this author, the Twins could not have executed on a strategy of acquiring current MLB talent similar to what they have today. Their assets weren't valuable enough. No one was gonna give you jack for guys who couldn'rt even make a Topp 100 prospect list. You know, guys like Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Garver, Arraez, Sano, Gibson...

 

Moncada at one point I believe was right behind Lindor on the prospect lists, a slot or two ahead of Kopech.

 

We could have parted with Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach in 2019, the four prospects we have that WOULD have made it to that 2016 analysis, and picked up who? Bumgarner? Robbie Ray? For what? To lose to Houston 3 games to 2 in the postseason? 

[bird]

 

Chicago also winning the trade does not mean Boston lost it. Take Sale away, and add another hitter to that team, do they win a WS? Probably not. Because they aren't winning this year mostly because the pitching isn't as good as the last three years....

 

 

Yes, I don't conflate those two things myself. My point has consistently been about acknowledging the longer-term likelihood that the piper is gonna get paid. Which means a guy like Dombrowski is a hero one season and a goat the next if players decline, finances get constricted, and there's a dearth of talent from which to horse-swap yourself back into contention.

[bird]

 

I would trade Lewis and Graterol as well for a 28 year old stud pitcher like Sale. Perhaps you're too negative about Sale's one injury riddled year? Is there any indication he's not going to bounce back next year?

 

 

Very well could be, Vanimal. I had a long career of having to manage against performance volatility and investment risk, and I never had to deal with an asset as unpredictably volatile as a major league pitcher.

So yeah, overpaying for even a stud like Sale unnerves me.

 

Moncada, Kopech, and Basabe is a better return for Chicago than Lewis, Graterol, and say, Rooker would have been, much better if fact.

[USAFChief]

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.

 

Kudos all around.

 

For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.

[bird]

 

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.

 

Kudos all around.

 

For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.

 

 

Oh, shut up, Chief. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him.

And Devers might be even better, at the same position...

[old nurse]

 

A least some of those bad contracts are on Cherrington also, in fact more than Dombrowski, so let's not forget that this was a joint effort.

Only Porcello's contract. One year of that he was a Cy Young winner, another he was more than decent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Only Porcello's contract. One year of that he was a Cy Young winner, another he was more than decent.

Sandoval and Rusney Castillo are still getting paid by the Red Sox, and both were signed by Cherington.

[nicksaviking]

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.

 

Kudos all around.

 

For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.

Not to mention he was also fired late in the year by Detroit, which also seemed like odd timing.

 

I might think it’s to let the replacement get his feet wet before the offseason starts, but that wouldn’t explain why it seems to only happen to Dombrowski.

[Vanimal46]

Not to mention he was also fired late in the year by Detroit, which also seemed like odd timing.

 

I might think it’s to let the replacement get his feet wet before the offseason starts, but that wouldn’t explain why it seems to only happen to Dombrowski.

Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.

[ashbury]

Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.

Pure speculation likewise, but I think he gave them an ultimatum about off-season strategy, and got an answer he didn't expect - perhaps one straight out of Chief's playbook:

 

"Let me ignore the Luxury Tax on team salaries, or I'm gone."

"Yes."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pure speculation likewise, but I think he gave them an ultimatum about off-season strategy, and got an answer he didn't expect - perhaps one straight out of Chief's playbook:

 

"Let me ignore the Luxury Tax on team salaries, or I'm gone."

"Yes."

I don't know about that. The Red Sox shed $50+ mil in Sandoval, Porcello, and assorted miscellaneous non-contributor salaries this offseason (Nunez, Pearce, etc.). They'll still be way up there in payroll, but I doubt Dombrowski would see a need to go beyond 2019 spending levels in 2020.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.

Yeah, having just one year left on his deal (2020) seems important here. Like, he wanted an extension, they didn't want to give him one, but they didn't want him to spend a year as a lame duck either.

 

Boston's had a lot of front office turnover the last 10 years, they seem more than willing to let a guy go like this, even one who just won a WS.

[bird]

 

And Devers might be even better, at the same position...

 

 

Yes, perhaps. Trade from surplus. 

[USAFChief]

Oh, shut up, Chief.

the smiley face pretty much ruins this.

[howieramone2]

 

They won the division more than once. In an off year they will win more than they lose. Why do people fall for this poor owner BS? The Twins haven't even won a playoff series yet, and have one starting pitcher under contract next year. Maybe we should wait to see if they are actually building a sustainable winner just a bit....

No need to wait. I've been around the game long to know a sustainable winner when I see one.