Blockbuster deal with Marlins... for Wei-Yin Chen?

[jokin]

Tom's thread earlier this evening piqued my interest, as I think the new braintrust thinks outside the traditional box and their success at transforming this once-moribund franchise has earned them chances to take on more financial and personnel risks to achieve and insure even greater success in 2019 and going forward.

 

Case in point:

 

The Marlins are saddled with Wei-Yin Chen's (pro-rated) $42M in salary over this season and next. And he's now reduced to pitching out of the pen. But his peripherals in relief this year are actually not as horrific when you look past the 7+ ERA. His fly ball tendencies can be better absorbed by the Twins stellar trio in the OF. K/9 at career highs and still extremely tough on LHBs. Playoff experience.

 

Are the lowly Marlins desperate enough to unload Chen's salary and accept giving up more valuable arm or arms as the price for their original mistake in signing him?

 

Here are some Marlin arms worth consideration:

 

Nick Anderson

 

Just another of the ex Twin farmhand pitchers doing well in other organizations. Bemidji-born, lightly regarded former Twins prospect who put up pretty strong numbers all the way up the Twins system.

 

The soon-to-be 29 year old Miami Marlin rookie has emerged as the Marlins' best reliever. Strikes out a ton, FB at 96 MPH.

 

Grrrrr...

 

K/9 vs. RHB: 18.00!!!

BA vs. LHB: .160

 

It's frustrating to see his name in a Miami box score each time out.

 

Tayron Guerrero.

 

6'8" 100MPH gas. Very wild, and scary. C'mon Twins... just put him out there to start out and finish a 7th inning 3 times a week... Imagine opponent consternation with Guerrero following or preceding Harper?

 

 

Who Else is on the list?

 

As always, the Marlins have a corps of young, hard-throwing SPs. In addition, they also have maybe 4-5 minor league SPs with #1-2 ceilings who are projected to debut in late 2019 or 2020. Including, a Top 25 prospect in Sixto Sanchez. With that in mind, perhaps a couple of the current starters might be considered expendable going forward, for the right price, of course.

 

Jose Urena- This is the guy the Marlins would have likely offered as the throw-in to a deal. He would be a reliable back-end SP, freeing up Pineda to immediately go into high-leverage relief. Unfortunately, the Marlins just placed him on the 60-day IL.

 

Pablo Lopez

Trevor Richards

Caleb Smith

 

Any of the 3 would be a huge boost to the Twins staff. Caleb Smith has the best swing and miss stuff and is the prize out of the trio. He could potentially rival Berrios for current Starting Staff Ace. Though not a lot of experience relieving, he has the potential look of a premier lock down guy if he would agree to embrace the role for the next four months. He seems to be coming on strong and into his own at a relatively late soon-to-be age 28. He possibly might be the most expendable of the trio for the right price, as the Marlins rebuild will probably leave Smith out of their plans going forward when he becomes unaffordable as he passes the age 30 milestone.

 

The cost of the trade?

 

Besides absorbing Chen's (pro-rated) $42 million over the next 2 years?

Would a Twins Top 5 and a Top 20 prospect get it done for Chen and one of the RPs and one of the SPs above?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

Why not stretch Rogers out and make him a 5th starter?

 

 

[USAFChief]

Creative. I like it.

[prouster]

I highly doubt they’d have to take on Chen’s contract to get any of these guys.

[jokin]

 

I highly doubt they’d have to take on Chen’s contract to get any of these guys.

 

Yes, possible. But how much more do you have to pay in terms of Twins' top prospect talent to acquire them? (Especially for Smith, or for two Marlins younger, higher ceiling arms).

[Riverbrian]

Yes, possible. But how much more do you have to pay in terms of Twins' top prospect talent to acquire them? (Especially for Smith, or for two Marlins younger, higher ceiling arms).

This is a good illustration to show that money can still get a deal done. Not as efficiently as signing a FA directly but it is an example of how money can still get a deal done indirectly.

 

My guess is that the Marlins would love to shed the Chen Money while hesitant to give up controllable talent.

 

Which creates an inherent conflict of interest that could be overcome.

[prouster]

Yes, possible. But how much more do you have to pay in terms of Twins' top prospect talent to acquire them? (Especially for Smith, or for two Marlins younger, higher ceiling arms).

Top prospect talent? Probably none at all, depending on what you mean by “top prospect.” I don’t think any of these guys would require a top five guy, except probably Smith. And even then, he’s not going to require any of the big three.

 

I just don’t see the point in adding that much salary in order to hang onto maybe one or two mid-tier prospects. There are some excellent starters likely to hit the free agent market this winter (Cole, Strasburg if/when he opts out). I’d rather they invest money there than the middle ranks of their farm system.

[Riverbrian]

I fully admit that I had no idea who Nick Anderson was last year but then again... it isn't my job to know. 

 

The front office should have known. 

 

I've now seen him throw with the Marlins and I believe that Nick Anderson was a pure hard to explain mistake.

 

I'll forgive the front office for it and I still like the overall work of the front office. However, that roster spot given to Belisle last year clearly should have been given to Nick Anderson instead. 

 

It kinda bugs me that we are discussing taking on a large contract just to retrieve him.    

 

 

[jokin]

 

 

It kinda bugs me that we are discussing taking on a large contract just to retrieve him.    

 

 

Grrr....***

 

 

***** (...but I repeat myself )

 

I'm considering a series of articles on questionable decisions regarding prospect arms. These would be articles beyond simply second-guess cherry-picking.... because the organization deserves kudos for the majority of the personnel decisions made and the shift in the corporate culture. 

 

But.... For the life of me, looking at the prospect arms (and Pressley) shed for nothing or next to nothing vs. the prospect arms retained or added is frustrating and somewhat perplexing. These "tryouts" being held weekly for a BP spot- with very little prospect for positive outcomes- would be an "OK" strategy for a mediocre team with minimal chance for postseason success.

But this is-

A team right in the midst of shattering all-time MLB records for team offensive success.

A team with possibly the best overall OF defense.

A team with likely the best Super Utility/Utility defensive credentials (and postseason success, as well).

A team with combined catcher offensive production leaps and bounds above the rest of the league.

A team that made the bold move in the offseason in signing the FA who is the leading HR hitter of the last decade.

 

The Yankees just about put a pin in all of the Twins post-season chances vs. the Bronx Bombers with their own "bold move" in acquiring Encarnacion.

 

The Twins obviously don't have such an unlimited open checkbook option, but it doesn't mean they have to wave the surrender flag like the previous regime did all-too-frequently.

 

"Getting something done" will require bold action(s). Getting Kimbrel was never a legitimate option. If we're all honest, we knew that from April on. Signing a Cuban arm by way of Argentina (who knew they had even heard of baseball down there?) is an interesting move, but more like trying to win the Super Powerball Jackpot.  

 

Admitting that a mistake was made, or.... taking on a wild, but dangerous 100 MPH flamethrower, or... a 27-8 year old late bloomer, with a $40M Chen rider attached to the deal, would be a bold move that just might work.

 

I remain confident that the Twins braintrust will make moves to shore up the current pitching situation. Hopefully the ownership will financially greenlight "bolder moves" with a decent prospect for success.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sounds good in theory, but the Marlins are already last in MLB in payroll, and they are shedding about $27 mil in Castro and Prado after this season.

 

If they were to salary dump Chen, they'd probably just be under immediate pressure from MLB and the MLBPA to turn around and spend it again.

 

I'm guessing they'd rather just move their better assets for the best prospects possible, and leave Chen out of it. The Twins could still be in the mix, of course.

[Riverbrian]

Grrr....***

 

 

***** (...but I repeat myself )

 

I'm considering a series of articles on questionable decisions regarding prospect arms. These would be articles beyond simply second-guess cherry-picking.... because the organization deserves kudos for the majority of the personnel decisions made and the shift in the corporate culture.

 

But.... For the life of me, looking at the prospect arms (and Pressley) shed for nothing or next to nothing vs. the prospect arms retained or added is frustrating and somewhat perplexing. These "tryouts" being held weekly for a BP spot- with very little prospect for positive outcomes- would be an "OK" strategy for a mediocre team with minimal chance for postseason success.

But this is-

A team right in the midst of shattering all-time MLB records for team offensive success.

A team with possibly the best overall OF defense.

A team with likely the best Super Utility/Utility defensive credentials (and postseason success, as well).

A team with combined catcher offensive production leaps and bounds above the rest of the league.

A team that made the bold move in the offseason in signing the FA who is the leading HR hitter of the last decade.

 

The Yankees just about put a pin in all of the Twins post-season chances vs. the Bronx Bombers with their own "bold move" in acquiring Encarnacion.

 

The Twins obviously don't have such an unlimited open checkbook option, but it doesn't mean they have to wave the surrender flag like the previous regime did all-too-frequently.

 

"Getting something done" will require bold action(s). Getting Kimbrel was never a legitimate option. If we're all honest, we knew that from April on. Signing a Cuban arm by way of Argentina (who knew they had even heard of baseball down there?) is an interesting move, but more like trying to win the Super Powerball Jackpot.

 

Admitting that a mistake was made, or.... taking on a wild, but dangerous 100 MPH flamethrower, or... a 27-8 year old late bloomer, with a $40M Chen rider attached to the deal, would be a bold move that just might work.

 

I remain confident that the Twins braintrust will make moves to shore up the current pitching situation. Hopefully the ownership will financially greenlight "bolder moves" with a decent prospect for success.

It’s an example of creativity that can be used to get deals done but I do agree with Spycake above.

 

The Marlins should be more motivated to keep young controllable talent then shed the last remaining high dollar contract.

 

However... the same concept could be applied with other teams in different stages of roster building. The Giants for example would love to remove money off the books I imagine. The Mets might if they don’t turn it around.

 

All in all... I think the Twins will try simple prospect for player trades because they’d like to keep their books uncluttered as much as possible.

 

But yeah... I’d love to have both of those guys right now.

 

The Yankees... will see. They were already offensively deep. It’s the 2nd move after the EE trade that will truly strengthen them. Frazier is now a trade chip for starting pitching with Stanton back in the outfield after EE takes over DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

However... the same concept could be applied with other teams in different stages of roster building. The Giants for example would love to remove money off the books I imagine. The Mets might if they don’t turn it around.

I thought about the Giants and Mets in this regard too, although both are well shy of the luxury tax threshold, and both have a capacity for high payrolls. They probably wouldn't be opposed to shedding some salary, but probably not enough to part with really good talent to do so. And the Twins should be aiming for really good talent.

 

Maybe the Twins could add a guy like Jeurys Familia or Mark Melancon if we take on a good chunk of their salaries, but we can afford to aim higher than that. I don't think the Mets or Giants would use decent trade chips like Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Smith just to unload some other contract (unless it was more than I'd want the Twins to pay!).

[nicksaviking]

Nick Anderson is a good story (for Miami) but I think he's already begun to turn into a pumpkin. He's rebounded in June but May was brutal. I hope he does well but two good months out of three for a 28-year-old rookie isn't going to get me too excited; he's not someone I'd be interested in in terms of eating $22M next year.

[Rosterman]

I didn't understand the parting of ways with Nick. I would rather keep my own prospects than have guys like Morin, Adams and Magill. Give guys a shot. Glad Eades got a look. Wish Baxendale would get one also (although it's been a tough year). Of course, the Twins still have to trust Moya and Vasquez. You never know.

 

See Curtiss left the Angels when offered free agency after his latest move off the 40-man.

 

Not sure would grab a $42 mil contract from Miami.

 

Hey, are the Nationals looking to move their $100+ million owed ace? Would that be a dice to roll?

 

The Twins need a frontline starter with control. They also need two dependable bullpen arms. When talking just money, they could've solved this dilemma shortterm recently. Now, they would have to give up 8-11 prospects (players) to get the job done. They do have the depth at some positions.

 

Sadly, as a competitive team, their own free agents available for trade have to be kept, in some ways, although I might take offers on Schoop )Gordon and Arraez available to replace) and Castro (get Willians back in the fold) if someone threw something at me. I wish Pineda was turning it around a bit more, and trust he might be a viable option to keep next season if he wishes to stay. Right now, I wish the Twins HAD rolled on Gibson and Odorizzi, both of whom doubled their value over what they couldv'e received during the off-season.

 

 

[jokin]

 

Nick Anderson is a good story (for Miami) but I think he's already begun to turn into a pumpkin. He's rebounded in June but May was brutal. I hope he does well but two good months out of three for a 28-year-old rookie isn't going to get me too excited; he's not someone I'd be interested in in terms of eating $22M next year.

 

Yep, fair point. I was looking for players the Marlins would more easily shed to unload the contract. And my package would have to also include a lock-down, highly capable SP. Again, I was looking at the Marlins potential willingness to part with an SP, given that they have 4-5 high ceiling SPs due to debut in 2019. or 2020. Smith would be the most likely candidate (older than the rest).

[nicksaviking]

 

Yep, fair point. I was looking for players the Marlins would more easily shed to unload the contract. And my package would have to also include a lock-down, highly capable SP. Again, I was looking at the Marlins potential willingness to part with an SP, given that they have 4-5 high ceiling SPs due to debut in 2019. or 2020. Smith would be the most likely candidate (older than the rest).

 

I might have some interest in Smith, but I don't hold him in that high of regard. Even a healthy Urena wouldn't do much for me. I like the proposal to eat some money to get back good players, it's just that Miami's roster gives me a headache. I don't think they have enough players worth 30M+ to make it worth my interest. There will be better free agents that will cost less than that, or they could hand out more extensions if nothing else.

[Riverbrian]

I thought about the Giants and Mets in this regard too, although both are well shy of the luxury tax threshold, and both have a capacity for high payrolls. They probably wouldn't be opposed to shedding some salary, but probably not enough to part with really good talent to do so. And the Twins should be aiming for really good talent.

 

Maybe the Twins could add a guy like Jeurys Familia or Mark Melancon if we take on a good chunk of their salaries, but we can afford to aim higher than that. I don't think the Mets or Giants would use decent trade chips like Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Smith just to unload some other contract (unless it was more than I'd want the Twins to pay!).

Agreed

 

The Mets seem to be at a crossroads. They could go either way but they seem to have stepped forward so stepping back at this time would appear somewhat clumsy for a new GM to undertake but who knows.

 

The Giants in my opinion should be tearing it down immediately and starting over and they seem to have limited assets to do so quickly. They have to drop payroll with players that are not that attractive anymore while trying to build up a depleted farm, those two things don’t go together well. Melancon for example isn’t attractive to anyone at the moment due to contract and performance. The Giants have a lot of These types... Longoria, Crawford, Belt.

 

I’d imagine they will want to make sure they get some prospects back for Bumgarner and Smith because the others won’t rebuild the farm with quality. I can see the Yankees trying to use Frazier for Bumgarner for example.

 

The Giants need a reset bad in my opinion.

[Riverbrian]

Nick Anderson is a good story (for Miami) but I think he's already begun to turn into a pumpkin. He's rebounded in June but May was brutal. I hope he does well but two good months out of three for a 28-year-old rookie isn't going to get me too excited; he's not someone I'd be interested in in terms of eating $22M next year.

Who knows but that K rate is still impressive pumpkin or not.

 

Also... If he is turning into a pumpkin I’d rather he turned into a pumpkin wearing a Twins uniform.

[dan7162]

Despite the disastrous outings before April 15, Wei-Yin Chen is becoming a potent member out of Marlins’s bullpen. Since then, he pitched 25.2 innings with 7.71(K/9), 1.75(BB/9), 0.35 (HR/9), 3.86(ERA), 2.55(FIP) , 90(xFIP-) and 3.93(XFIP), all comparable to those of the recently touted Ian Kennedy.

 

In the 17 outings by Chen since April 15, 8 of them last more than 2 innings. Also, he served as loogy once on May 21 and got the job done with three pitches. His ground ball rates now rose to 44.7%.

 

For those who are eyeing on the postseason and looking for a veteran left-handed reliever that can start, carry out multiple inning relief or just get one lefty out, Wei-Yin may worth the look.

[Steve Lein]

 

I fully admit that I had no idea who Nick Anderson was last year but then again... it isn't my job to know. 

 

The front office should have known. 

 

I've now seen him throw with the Marlins and I believe that Nick Anderson was a pure hard to explain mistake.

 

I'll forgive the front office for it and I still like the overall work of the front office. However, that roster spot given to Belisle last year clearly should have been given to Nick Anderson instead. 

 

It kinda bugs me that we are discussing taking on a large contract just to retrieve him.    

 

Nick Anderson was the best performing reliever in the system basically since the second they signed him out of the independent leagues, and that was over 3+ years. They definitely should have known. And he more than deserved a look last year.

 

Hate to say it, but the only reason I can think of is he wasn't one of their guys, which is a shame.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nick Anderson is an interesting guy to follow.

 

Per Statcast, his K% is top 2 percent in MLB (although it's been falling), but his hard hit percentage and xwOBA on contact are bottom 8%. He's missed some bats, but he's also been hit hard.