Cubs to sign Kimbrel

[terrydactyls]

So, the Twins were wrong about Darvish too.... Is the point never sign pitchers? Guys the Twins didn't sign, have been great, good, bad.... Does that make those signings all, what? The Cubs have also successfully signed free agent pitchers, what's the point of your post?

Is it better to trade players and add to the budget?

I thought the point of my post was stated rather articulately in the last sentence.

[Mike Sixel]

this is interesting:

 

mike sixel
12:31 Rather than speculate on what RPs might now be available, I'll ask you to speculate when the first one will be traded....I'm guessing in 5 weeks. You?

Jay Jaffe
12:33 Now that the draft is over and the Kimbrel domino has fallen, I  think the general industry consensus is that the trade market is going to start heating up very soon — remember, there's also no waiver period (August 31 deadline) anymore. I'd guess we have a reliever trade within two weeks and it wouldn't surprise me at all if something went down, like, before this chat even ends.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Without context, not much?

 

I mean, Hader was 185th in ground ball rate. Doolittle 172nd.

 

Felipe Vasquez was 166th in line drive rate. Betances 189th.

 

Knebel was 147th in first pitch strike percentage. Treinen 164th.

 

Robertson 168th in strike percentage. Britton 185th.

 

Britton 183rd in BB%. Chapman 186th.

 

Kimbrel had many very comparable ranks in 2016 and 2017 too, particularly in LD% and GB%.

 

These measures, at least among relievers with 40+ innings, don't seem to correlate that strongly with success. At least not compared to the following:

 

Kimbrel:

6th in K%

14th in K-BB% (Duffey's favorite!)

5th in opponent's average

20th in WHIP

 

Kimbrel's ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year while his line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year. He also somehow maintained a .216 BABIP despite having an average exit velocity of 88.6 mph. A lot of great pitchers carry insanely low BABIPs, but they usually come with lower line drive rates and exit velocities. 

 

All that is enough to turn me off, especially in regard to a pitcher's ages 31-33 seasons. He's entering the time where guys start to lose velocity. He's starting out at an elite level there, but he already dipped more than a mph last year. What happens if that continues to slide?

 

The Twins should be more focused on trying to add players who are on the upswing for multiple seasons.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kimbrel's ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year while his line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year. He also somehow maintained a .216 BABIP despite having an average exit velocity of 88.6 mph. A lot of great pitchers carry insanely low BABIPs, but they usually come with lower line drive rates and exit velocities. 

 

All that is enough to turn me off, especially in regard to a pitcher's ages 31-33 seasons. He's entering the time where guys start to lose velocity. He's starting out at an elite level there, but he already dipped more than a mph last year. What happens if that continues to slide?

 

The Twins should be more focused on trying to add players who are on the upswing for multiple seasons.

 

You think good RPs who are controlled for multiple years, who aren't 30, are going to be traded this June/July? What kind of prospects would that take?

[USAFChief]

"Penny wise and pound foolish" is the phrase that comes to my mind.

[Tom Froemming]

 

You think good RPs who are controlled for multiple years, who aren't 30, are going to be traded this June/July? What kind of prospects would that take?

You always have to give something to get something, of course, but it appears this front office is taking the path of develop bats, acquire pitching. Their biggest investments in the draft and international market thus far have leaned heavily toward position players. That should mean they have a few bats they're willing to part with in order to even things out.

 

Now whether they think mid-2019 is the right time to start doing that, I'm not sure. I'd do it now. The only guys in their lineup slated to hit free agency next year are Schoop and Castro. Good players, but you have Marwin and Garver who can replace them and other guys around to fill in the gaps.

[USAFChief]

 

Honestly, I'm a bit bummed the Twins didn't get Kimbrel but the guy is a pretty big risk at that price point. He may not even be effective this season, and the Twins badly need an effective reliever this season. 2020 is important but almost an afterthought compared to 2019 and Kimbrel's biggest question mark is his expected 2019 performance after missing so much time.

 

Now that they've missed on Kimbrel, they need to lead the pack in aggressiveness with trades, starting... now.

 

The Twins system is almost perfectly situated to get an impact arm. The org is chock full of good-but-not-great prospects, many of which can be combined to pick up a good arm from one of the several teams who are already out of contention this season.

 

I'll be disappointed if the front office fails to make a move before July 1st.

I'm guessing you'll also be disappointed if they don't address the bullpen by last off-season, too, amiright?

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kimbrel's ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year while his line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year. He also somehow maintained a .216 BABIP despite having an average exit velocity of 88.6 mph. A lot of great pitchers carry insanely low BABIPs, but they usually come with lower line drive rates and exit velocities. 

 

All that is enough to turn me off, especially in regard to a pitcher's ages 31-33 seasons. He's entering the time where guys start to lose velocity. He's starting out at an elite level there, but he already dipped more than a mph last year. What happens if that continues to slide?

This is more data without context.

 

Kimbrel's GB% improved from 2016-2017 as much as it declined from 2017-2018. LD% roughly too. And his fastball velocity -- 2017 was the best year of his career. His 2018 velocity, while a drop from 2017, still equals his career mark per Fangraphs.

 

And his average exit velocity actually DROPPED from 2017 to 2018. And his 2018 mark was still a tick better than his career mark (in the Statcast era, anyway). His barrel % improved a tick too from 2017-2018.

 

His 2018 xOBA seems to be in line with his 2018 xwOBA, and his career marks.

 

Maybe 2017 is the outlier? He was great in 2017, but he was still quite effective in 2016 and 2018 too, enough to justify 3/43 with no draft pick comp, I should think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm guessing you'll also be disappointed if they don't address the bullpen by last off-season, too, amiright?

Well, I was pretty vocal about my desire to see them acquire at least one arm last offseason, so yeah...

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm guessing you'll also be disappointed if they don't address the bullpen by last off-season, too, amiright?

 

Wasn't just about everyone? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins should be more focused on trying to add players who are on the upswing for multiple seasons.

This sounds like a "perfect is the enemy of the good" situation. A reliever like Kimbrel on the upswing for multiple seasons is going to cost more than 3/43, either in money or talent.

 

And again, it's not an either/or. There's plenty of room in our bullpen, we could have still made a trade even after signing Kimbrel.

[Mike Sixel]

More stuff:

 

Randy
12:57 I read your article on the Dodgers bullpen and loved it. Who could the Dodgers target before the trade deadline for bullpen help?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05 Thanks (Randy is referring to this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/powerhouse-dodgers-bullpen-misadventures-s...). I mentioned a few guys near the end of the piece, target-wise. The best trade target will probably be Ken Giles, but he's going to cost a lot in terms of talent. Will Smith (the Giants pitcher) could be hard to land given the Dodgers' lack of trade history with the Giants (the last one was in 2007, and the 1956 Jackie Robinson trade was the fourth-most recent https://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1...), though maybe the presence of Farhan Zaidi in SF changes that.  Sean Doolittle if the Nationals do fall out of the race for good.

Beyond that, there are a few recently released guys worth sifting through based on their track records — Luke Gregerson, Dan Jennings, Addison Reed — because they'll cost essentially nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wasn't just about everyone? 

 

Not the FO, apparently.

[USAFChief]

 

Wasn't just about everyone? 

 

Well, I was pretty vocal about my desire to see them acquire at least one arm last offseason, so yeah...

 

Miss the point much?

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't see them losing any members of the core over 1 extra year at $16 mil. I think they could have structured deals for the core, like they already did with Kepler and Polanco, to accommodate signing Kimbrel, even through 2021.

They aren't extending Berrios as team friendly as they were able to do Polanco and Kepler. And likely not Buxton either.

Those two are going to get very expensive if you want to lock them up long term.

They also likely will need to re-sign one or both of Odorizzi and Gibson.

I don't see any possible way they afford Kimbrel in 2021 without it impacting one or more of our core.

[nicksaviking]

 

This is more data without context.

 

Kimbrel's GB% improved from 2016-2017 as much as it declined from 2017-2018. LD% roughly too. And his fastball velocity -- 2017 was the best year of his career. His 2018 velocity, while a drop from 2017, still equals his career mark per Fangraphs.

 

And his average exit velocity actually DROPPED from 2017 to 2018. And his 2018 mark was still a tick better than his career mark (in the Statcast era, anyway). His barrel % improved a tick too from 2017-2018.

 

His 2018 xOBA seems to be in line with his 2018 xwOBA, and his career marks.

 

Maybe 2017 is the outlier? He was great in 2017, but he was still quite effective in 2016 and 2018 too, enough to justify 3/43 with no draft pick comp, I should think.

 

I don't have concerns about his peripherals, I think a reliever with good velocity can have a long career even with year to year hiccups. I think good velocity can right most ships eventually.  I'd just like to see the comps of pitchers who signed late, or came back midseason after missing all of spring with injuries who have performed to decent levels.

 

I can only think of guys who have flopped, and lots of them, but I could be convinced otherwise if I saw other data to refute that perception.

[Mr. Brooks]

Of course, it's four to seven weeks before trades happen, unless history is wrong. So, sit back and relax for a bit....

What's the rush? They need guys that can help them come postseason. They don't really need any help getting there. I know anything can technically happen, but the division is practically locked up.

[nicksaviking]

 

This sounds like a "perfect is the enemy of the good" situation. A reliever like Kimbrel on the upswing for multiple seasons is going to cost more than 3/43, either in money or talent.

 

And again, it's not an either/or. There's plenty of room in our bullpen, we could have still made a trade even after signing Kimbrel.

 

Either way, I'm definitely hoping for multiple moves.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They aren't extending Berrios as team friendly as they were able to do Polanco and Kepler. And likely not Buxton either.
Those two are going to get very expensive if you want to lock them up long term.
They also likely will need to re-sign one or both of Odorizzi and Gibson.
I don't see any possible way they afford Kimbrel in 2021 without it impacting one or more of our core.

I don't think Kimbrel would have impacted the core much but he definitely could have impacted additional FA signings.

 

But the fact of the matter is that the Twins have and continue to spend well under their promised threshold. Now that they're winning, that payroll number needs to start climbing, and in a hurry. It's potentially the difference between a three year contention window and a five year contention window.

 

And besides, the fans deserve it, especially those of us in the metro who paid for that effing stadium and all the promises that went along with it.

[USAFChief]

 

They aren't extending Berrios as team friendly as they were able to do Polanco and Kepler. And likely not Buxton either.
Those two are going to get very expensive if you want to lock them up long term.
They also likely will need to re-sign one or both of Odorizzi and Gibson.
I don't see any possible way they afford Kimbrel in 2021 without it impacting one or more of our core.

Any chance of extending Buxton and/or Berrios probably evaporated on opening day.

 

And if $16M in 2021 is the difference, we're in serious trouble anyway.

[nicksaviking]

 

Miss the point much?

 

Wasn't the point that we should have been disappointed last offseason too? Brock and I have both said we want and need bullpen help. Why are we required to want or like Craig Kimbrel? There are lots of big name players who I don't care for and don't value nearly as much as other fans do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Jay Jaffe

12:33 Now that the draft is over and the Kimbrel domino has fallen, I  think the general industry consensus is that the trade market is going to start heating up very soon — remember, there's also no waiver period (August 31 deadline) anymore. I'd guess we have a reliever trade within two weeks and it wouldn't surprise me at all if something went down, like, before this chat even ends.

I wouldn't be surprised if a reliever is traded in June either -- but it probably won't be a great one. Last year the Royals moved Kelvin Herrera on June 18 (a trade I was interested in from the Twins perspective, at the time), but of course that trade was a bit of an outlier, and those Royals were a 104 loss team while Herrera was a pending FA making $8.5 mil.

 

For guys that are better than that, or have additional control, I don't see teams moving them to "get ahead of the market". The August trade market was largely irrelevant for such players anyway.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think Kimbrel would have impacted the core much but he definitely could have impacted additional FA signings.

 

But the fact of the matter is that the Twins have and continue to spend well under their promised threshold. Now that they're winning, that payroll number needs to start climbing, and in a hurry. It's potentially the difference between a three year contention window and a five year contention window.

 

And besides, the fans deserve it, especially those of us in the metro who paid for that effing stadium and all the promises that went along with it.

I've never believed that the Twins are suddenly going to see some magical increase in payroll spending. I'd love to be wrong though.

I think these guys have a hard budget, no matter how many times they or anyone else falls on the sword and says something like, "we just have to ask for more and it's there".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They aren't extending Berrios as team friendly as they were able to do Polanco and Kepler. And likely not Buxton either.
Those two are going to get very expensive if you want to lock them up long term.
They also likely will need to re-sign one or both of Odorizzi and Gibson.
I don't see any possible way they afford Kimbrel in 2021 without it impacting one or more of our core.

It's not an issue with team-friendliness or not. It's how the contracts are structured. They front-loaded Polanco and Kepler this year so they'd have more money to spend a few years down the road. They could just as easily back-load their next two extensions for 2022-2023 to keep the 2021 payroll in line, if they so desire.

[nicksaviking]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a reliever is traded in June either -- but it probably won't be a great one. Last year the Royals moved Kelvin Herrera on June 18 (a trade I was interested in from the Twins perspective, at the time), but of course that trade was a bit of an outlier, and those Royals were a 104 loss team while Herrera was a pending FA making $8.5 mil.

 

For guys that are better than that, or have additional control, I don't see teams moving them to "get ahead of the market". The August trade market was largely irrelevant for such players anyway.

 

The Twins should go back to the Royals then. I bet if they took enough of Ian Kenndy's contract the Royals would be happy to dump him sooner rather than later, and he's a guy I think is going to have a really good second career in the pen; I always like those starters-turned-relievers, though usually earlier in their career. But his velocity has already jumped 3 MPH and he's using his cutter now more than ever, which sound like Twins-preferred changes.

[Tom Froemming]

 

This sounds like a "perfect is the enemy of the good" situation. A reliever like Kimbrel on the upswing for multiple seasons is going to cost more than 3/43, either in money or talent.

 

And again, it's not an either/or. There's plenty of room in our bullpen, we could have still made a trade even after signing Kimbrel.

Depends. Can you identify a reliever who is undervalued and on the verge of a breakout? Can you identify your own prospect who is overvalued? Then you have some really nice potential upside in a trade. That's obviously difficult, much like trying to project what a relief pitcher is going to do in his ages 31-33 seasons  

 

As far as your most recent round of numbers, the last thing I'm interested in doing is zooming out. I've already zoomed out to look at his full season stats from 2018 as opposed to just his poor second half and postseason. He's had an incredible career, and that certainly counts for something, but if I'm signing him I want to focus on who he appears to be right now.

 

That's a little difficult to say from where we are, having no information on how he's looked in his simulated games/workouts, but I have no problem with the Twins not wanting the commit $40+ million to a closer who's at best only going to pitch 60-70 innings a season.

[USAFChief]

 

Wasn't the point that we should have been disappointed last offseason too? Brock and I have both said we want and need bullpen help. Why are we required to want or like Craig Kimbrel? There are lots of big name players who I don't care for and don't value nearly as much as other fans do.

The point is, "being disappointed if X doesn't happen" is such a cop out. When X doesn't happen, just move the goal posts.

 

"They need to do something is offseason. No, wait, they need to sign Kimbrel. No, wait, they need to trade prospects for these mythical relievers by July 1st. No..."

 

In any case, pretty sure Brock DID want Kimbrel, but once the Twins chicken out, suddenly it's OK.

 

And if you didn't want Kimbrel, fine, but in that case you should be upset with the Twins, no? They clearly DID want him, and apparently offered him a 2 yr contract. So they clearly DID think he was both needed and worthy. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd just like to see the comps of pitchers who signed late, or came back midseason after missing all of spring with injuries who have performed to decent levels.

 

I can only think of guys who have flopped, and lots of them, but I could be convinced otherwise if I saw other data to refute that perception.

This would be interesting, although there is plenty of selection bias -- a guy who's injured the first half of the season would be expected to perform worse the second half of the season. Likewise, a guy who goes unsigned until late may not be that good to begin with -- which could apply to Kimbrel too, of course, although his circumstances do seem fairly unique.

 

It's not like a lot of pitchers of Kimbrel's caliber have signed notably late before, so I don't know if there's really any meaningful data here. Clemens and Pettitte did all right signing late, although I don't know if I want to lump Kimbrel in with them!

 

What names were you thinking? (Warning: it's a pet peeve of mine to see Lance Lynn mentioned in this context! )

[nicksaviking]

 

The point is, "being disappointed if X doesn't happen" is such a cop out. When X doesn't happen, just move the goal posts.

 

"They need to do something is offseason. No, wait, they need to sign Kimbrel. No, wait, they need to trade prospects for these mythical relievers by July 1st. No..."

 

So once they disappoint you there's no going back? There's nothing they can do to make up for failing us in some way. That sounds like a way to never enjoy following a sports team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So once they disappoint you there's no going back? There's nothing they can do to make up for failing us in some way. That sounds like a way to never enjoy following a sports team.

 

I think you are both right. chief is right that there is a lot of goal post moving, a lot. 

 

You are right, that that is the past, now let's see if they fix their past mistakes or not.