Astudillo

[Riverbrian]

 

I agree in this case Astudillo needs to see the field fairly often,. I'd play him mostly at third.

but...

I want my manager playing the players who have the best chance of being good today and tomorrow, not necessarily the players who were better yesterday or the day before that.

"The players who are hitting right now" is a difficult, close to impossible thing to determine. I hope for a better decision making process than that.

 

I get that and this is also where I get off that bus.

 

Yes... Projection is vital to any organization. I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm hoping with all my heart that the front office becomes exceptional at the art of projection. However... they are often wrong... not just the Twins but all organizations and they are wrong frequently enough that the list of players getting 2 to 3 year runs to match potential and failing is quite lengthy and I will continue to assume that they will all be wrong again in the future.  

 

The sad side of this trying to force potential to match projections with automatic playing time is that a player like Astudillo or Max Muncy or Justin Turner or Luke Voit is never given a chance to confound projections because the team thinks they know better. 

 

Sorry, Mr. Astudillo... I know you are really tearing the cover off the ball right now but we can't play you right now because our projections suggest that you shouldn't be tearing the cover off the ball... so we have decided as an organization to keep playing the player who is not tearing the cover off the ball at the moment because we believe that he will be tearing the cover off the ball in the future. 

 

That's a way to lose today and it's also the quickest way to kill a career who just might be Max Muncy. Just go ahead and bench someone who is tearing the cover off the ball because you think you know better. The organization holds this tremendous power in their hands.

 

Besides... it doesn't have to be "all or nothing". It doesn't have to be... we are now going to play Astudillo every single day which means that Max Kepler will never play again. It doesn't have to be either or with no middle ground to consider.

 

You can in theory (this is over simplification) rotate 10 players for the 9 starting positions and each of the 10 players will play 9 out of 10 games. 9 out of 10 games will not stall Max Kepler's development... 9 out of 10 games will not penalize the expected benefit of Jonathan Scoop. What it will do... is allow the team to take advantage of a hot hitter and give that hot hitter a chance to become one of the chosen few with his own hands. It gives them a chance to compete instead of some predetermined whatever.

 

It doesn't have to be either or. 

 

Anyway... I'm glad you agree... Astudillo is our best hitter RIGHT NOW... At this moment and any lineup that doesn't have him in it... is a failure to recognize that he is our best hitter... RIGHT NOW. 

 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Exactly, man. Should we bench Gonzalez and Rosario now because they're hitting below .200 after 5 games so we can see Astudillo? If we had Mike Trout or a player of that caliber, do you bench him for Astudillo because Trout's had a bad first week?

 

I completely get that people want to see A-Stud in the lineup. I do too. But with 5 games in the book you can't just bench players. They need ABs to get on track.

 

Nobody has to be benched

 

Sitting 1 game so the manager can work in a hot bat is not a benching. However... Saying that no player can't sit for one day is... a benching for the hot bat. 

[USAFChief]

I get that and this is also where I get off that bus.

 

Yes... Projection is vital to any organization. I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm hoping with all my heart that the front office becomes exceptional at the art of projection. However... they are often wrong... not just the Twins but all organizations and they are wrong frequently enough that the list of players getting 2 to 3 year runs to match potential and failing is quite lengthy and I will continue to assume that they will all be wrong again in the future.

 

The sad side of this trying to force potential to match projections with automatic playing time is that a player like Astudillo or Max Muncy or Justin Turner or Luke Voit is never given a chance to confound projections because the team thinks they know better.

 

Sorry, Mr. Astudillo... I know you are really tearing the cover off the ball right now but we can't play you right now because our projections suggest that you shouldn't be tearing the cover off the ball... so we have decided as an organization to keep playing the player who is not tearing the cover off the ball at the moment because we believe that he will be tearing the cover off the ball in the future.

 

That's a way to lose today and it's also the quickest way to kill a career who just might be Max Muncy. Just go ahead and bench someone who is tearing the cover off the ball because you think you know better. The organization holds this tremendous power in their hands.

 

Besides... it doesn't have to be "all or nothing". It doesn't have to be... we are now going to play Astudillo every single day which means that Max Kepler will never play again. It doesn't have to be either or with no middle ground to consider.

 

You can in theory (this is over simplification) rotate 10 players for the 9 starting positions and each of the 10 players will play 9 out of 10 games. 9 out of 10 games will not stall Max Kepler's development... 9 out of 10 games will not penalize the expected benefit of Jonathan Scoop. What it will do... is allow the team to take advantage of a hot hitter and give that hot hitter a chance to become one of the chosen few with his own hands. It gives them a chance to compete instead of some predetermined whatever.

 

It doesn't have to be either or.

 

Anyway... I'm glad you agree... Astudillo is our best hitter RIGHT NOW... At this moment and any lineup that doesn't have him in it... is a failure to recognize that he is our best hitter... RIGHT NOW.

 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

yeah, it's a shame Muncey, Turner and Voit never got a chance...

 

Anyway, Cruz is our best hitter right now. And yesterday, and tomorrow.

[Sssuperdave]

Fivethirtyeight (one of my favorite websites) just posted a great article about Willians:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/willians-astudillo-is-a-baseball-enigma/

[ScrapTheNickname]

My favorite gem from the fivethirtyeight article:

 

"Astudillo remembers a drill in which his father would kneel a few feet away and flick corn kernels toward him in their backyard ... Astudillo’s objective was to hit the knuckling projectiles with a broomstick."

 

[Mike Sixel]

Exactly, man. Should we bench Gonzalez and Rosario now because they're hitting below .200 after 5 games so we can see Astudillo? If we had Mike Trout or a player of that caliber, do you bench him for Astudillo because Trout's had a bad first week?

 

I completely get that people want to see A-Stud in the lineup. I do too. But with 5 games in the book you can't just bench players. They need ABs to get on track.

. Seriously?

 

Gonzalez and School aren't great players. It's not clear they are good players. The trout comment is not even close to a good comparison.

[Mr. Brooks]

My favorite gem from the fivethirtyeight article:

 

"Astudillo remembers a drill in which his father would kneel a few feet away and flick corn kernels toward him in their backyard ... Astudillo’s objective was to hit the knuckling projectiles with a broomstick."

This actually explains a lot, regarding his contact skills.

If you'll excuse me now, I'm going to head out to the backyard with my son, a broom, and some corn kernels...

[Riverbrian]

 

yeah, it's a shame Muncey, Turner and Voit never got a chance... 

Anyway, Cruz is our best hitter right now. And yesterday, and tomorrow.

 

Looks like we are both out of luck tonight. Both Cruz and Astudillo are out of the lineup. 

 

On Muncy, Turner and Voit... You are right... they did get a chance... with a different team of course. Astudillo can still get that chance with someone else as well. I stand corrected. 

[bighat]

 

. Seriously?

Gonzalez and School aren't great players. It's not clear they are good players. The trout comment is not even close to a good comparison.

 

I think Gonzalez and School are good enough to warrant being in the every day lineup for at least the first week of the season. Agree to disagree, I guess.

[TheLeviathan]

El Tortuga is flexible enough position wise there is no reason he can't play 5 days a week.  And he's hitting well enough that it should be the minimum aim for him right now.

[yarnivek1972]

Astudillo is such a similar hitter to Brian Harper it’s eerie.

[ashbury]

Astudillo is such a similar hitter to Brian Harper it’s eerie.

Showed a little courage on defense today, likewise.

[Battle ur tail off]

The problem with Austidillo in here and inside the organizations is that there are just so many geniuses around. He has weird numbers wasn’t a vaunted top prospect, doesn’t have good high end analytic numbers etc.

But by just sitting down and watching him play, it’s obvious the guy is a baller and that at least at the moment, he is one fire. He should play most every day right now. Will he turn into a pumpkin at midnight sometime throughout the season? Maybe. But who cares right now. Don’t let your stat sheet and geek squad get in the way of your eyes right now. This guy can play and should be frequently