Contention 2019?

[Craig Arko]

My general thought is that 2019 success will mostly be based on how Sano and Buxton fare. Extrapolate as necessary.

[howeda7]

They can and should contend in 2019. They have $50-60 million to spend. 

 

-I would trade for a catcher, probably the guy from the Marlins. Will a package built around Nick Gordon get it done? Maybe Gordon and Gonsalves? 

 

-Re-sign Escobar to play 2nd (or 3rd). 3/$45m with an options should get it done.

 

-Sign Adam Jones. 3/$45 seems reasonable here too. This would make Kepler/Buxton earn their spot.

 

-Re-sign Mauer. 1/$5 million. Platoon at 1B with Austin. If Mauer retires, Kepler to 1B is an option.

 

-Sign Kimbrel to close. At the risk of redundancy this might take 3/$45 range as well. This makes me slightly nervous but you have to do what you have to do.

 

-Non-tender Odorizzi. Sign someone else on a 1-2 year deal. Gio Gonzalez? Sabathia? JA Happ (might be a stretch). 

 

Total payroll: ~$125 million

 

Line-up:

 

1. Polanco-SS

2. Jones-LF

3. Rosario-RF

4. Sano-3B

5. Escboar-2B

6. Realmuto-C

7. Kepler-DH. (Assume Rosario, Jones, Kepler, Austin, Sano all rotate through)

8. Mauer/Austin-1B

9. Buxton-CF

 

Bench: 

Garver (assuming we eat most of Castro's salary and trade him either to Marlins or elsewhere.)

Adrianza

Austin

Cave

 

Rotation:

Berrios

Gibson

Gonzlez/Sabathia

 

Two of:

Romero

Pineda

Mejia

Sleggers

Stewart

 

Bullpen:

Kimbrell

Hildy

Rogers

May

Buesintiz

Moya

Reed

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Borealis]

They can and should contend in 2019. They have $50-60 million to spend. 

 

-I would trade for a catcher, probably the guy from the Marlins. Will a package built around Nick Gordon get it done? Maybe Gordon and Gonsalves? 

 

-Re-sign Escobar to play 2nd (or 3rd). 3/$45m with an options should get it done.m

 

-Sign Adam Jones. 3/$45 seems reasonable here too. This would make Kepler/Buxton earn their spot.

 

-Re-sign Mauer. 1/$5 million. Platoon at 1B with Austin. If Mauer retires, Kepler to 1B is an option.

 

-Sign Kimbrel to close. At the risk of redundancy this might take 3/$45 range as well. This makes me slightly nervous but you have to do what you have to do.

 

-Non-tender Odorizzi. Sign someone else on a 1-2 year deal. Gio Gonzalez? Sabathia? JA Happ (might be a stretch). 

 

Total payroll: ~$125 million

 

Line-up:

 

1. Polanco-SS

2. Jones-LF

3. Rosario-RF

4. Sano-3B

5. Escboar-2B

6. Realmuto-C

7. Kepler-DH. (Assume Rosario, Jones, Kepler, Austin, Sano all rotate through)

8. Mauer/Austin-1B

9. Buxton-CF

 

Bench: 

Garver (assuming we eat most of Castro's salary and trade him either to Marlins or elsewhere.)

Adrianza

Austin

Cave

 

Rotation:

Berrios

Gibson

Gonzlez/Sabathia

 

Two of:

Romero

Pineda

Mejia

Sleggers

Stewart

 

Bullpen:

Kimbrell

Hildy

Rogers

May

Buesintiz

Moya

Reed

These are some pretty excellent recommendations IMHO. The one thing I would consider doing though, is swapping out May and Mejia. It seems May profiles better then Mejia for getting deeper into games because of his better repertoire of secondary pitches. I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Mejia so far, but at some point doesn’t the question need to be asked if Mejia can ever consistently get past the 5th inning?

 

The storyline a couple years ago was that May’s troublesome back may have been exasperated by the daily rigors of being a relief pitcher. If this is still a concern (often back issues can be chronic), then this absolutely needs to be part of the discussion on what role May should be in going forward.

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins problem for 2019 is that there are big question marks around their core talents. They can't really count on Sano and Buxton to be impact guys. Rosario is one . . . Polanco is solid but not a star . . . no ace starter, no dominant reliever. 

 

Depth can definitely get them to 85 wins, with some lucky bounces 90 wins, but I don't think there's anything they can do to become an elite AL team next year and really make noise in the playoffs.

 

For that to happen, the Twins need some more of their young players (prospects included) to develop into above average or star-level guys.

 

I think this is a very accurate portrayal. The 4 “super teams” have incredible depth of elite players. We have none. What we have is players with that type of ceiling that have not yet achieved that level. Berrios. Gibson and Rosario have shown stretches but not maintained an elite level over an extended period of time.

 

Rosario had a hot streak and it appeared to me he was more selective during that streak. He is back to practicing extremely poor plate discipline and his OPS for the last couple months is .675. He is 12th on the team over that period. Garver has the best OPS at .900, followed by Forsyth, Grossman, and Cave. Rosario is no sure thing to be a top contributor in 2019.

 

OPS - 6/23-8/23

 

 

[sftwinsfan]

I guess I'm not overly optimistic for 2019.  Anything's possible, a lot of things would have to break right for them to contend (like they surprisingly did in 2017).  There's too many holes and question marks.  The bullpen is terrible.  The majority of the rotation are question marks.  Romero seems to have gone downhill as the season has gone on, even in AAA, definitely not anyone you can write in for 2019.  Gonsalves, I'm not sure on.  A lot depends upon Buxton and Sano, who knows.  Will Kepler ever take some steps forward? Catcher, first base, second base, all potential issues.  I see 2019 as more of a year of try-outs.  Will probably see a rotation of guys in and out of the rotation hoping some stick.  Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Romero.  Hopefully some guys prove themselves.

[jimmer]

 

Rosario had a hot streak and it appeared to me he was more selective during that streak. He is back to practicing extremely poor plate discipline and his OPS for the last couple months is .675. He is 12th on the team over that period. Garver has the best OPS at .900, followed by Forsyth, Grossman, and Cave. Rosario is no sure thing to be a top contributor in 2019.

 

OPS - 6/23-8/23

Did you just not see Kepler's name on that stat board you gave the link too? :-)

[mngopherguy]

 

Any scientific study you have done that can support the claim underlined?

 

I hate when people assume who is doing the "complaining"

There is no reason to marginalize criticism the organization gets by generalizing complaints into a single category made by people who just live to whine and complain.  Those are useless claims made by the "we need to be positive crowd"

 

I think being critical IS positive.  It beats putting your head in the sand and ignoring the unpleasant truth.  At least when criticism is involved some analysis gets done.  Always accentuating the positive and brushing aside the negatives is fools errand if you have any hopes of understanding any issue and turning it around

 

He's right, but if says names, he'll risk being in the cross hairs of the mods.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Did you just not see Kepler's name on that stat board you gave the link too? :-)

 

No, I saw it and had a brain fart when I described the stats. Thanks for pointing that out. Kepler has been quite good for the past 6-8 weeks. I have had a man crush on Kepler since he was in AA so the oversight is definitely not intended to be a slight. You had to believe he was going to start hitting RH pitching. It made no sense. Kepler and Garver have been our two best offensive players since the AS break. They both deserve a little more love.

[jimmer]

No, I saw it and had a brain fart when I described the stats. Thanks for pointing that out. Kepler has been quite good for the past 6-8 weeks. I have had a man crush on Kepler since he was in AA so the oversight is definitely not intended to be a slight. You had to believe he was going to start hitting RH pitching. It made no sense. Kepler and Garver have been our two best offensive players since the AS break. They both deserve a little more love.

I have never stopped believing in Kepler

[snepp]

 

He's right, but if says names, he'll risk being in the cross hairs of the mods.

 

This is also a cross hair risk. Discussing moderation, outside of the appropriate forum, is not only off-topic, but explicitly forbidden in the posting guidelines.

 

 

[DocBauer]

I AM an eternal optimist. Life or Twins, it's my nature. And I have followed this team for 45 years. I've seen prospects come and go. I have seen guys like Larkin, Stahoviak, Jorgenson, Allen, Pittman, Newman and Nivens, that I THOUGHT might work out. (Just to name a few). And there are guys like Banks, Gasser, Baumgardner, Sontag, Benson that I KNEW were going to turn out, but didn't. (Again, just to name a few).

 

But I tell you truthfully, I've never doubted Berrios for a minute. And I feel the same way about Rosario, Sano, Polanco and Kepler. Everything I have seen from talent, potential, milb and ML production tells me these guys can do it. SUCKS that everything seemed to fall apart this season. But...we have seen what each of these guys can do!

 

A re-set, slimmer and healthier Sano already has proven himself previously, and is seems set for a big 2019. Kepler has all the ability in the world. Still growing and developing, and remembering how to hit RH pitching, he's ready to explode. Polanco comes back and hits, and is playing the best defense he's ever played. And we should just give up on the uber-talented Buxton?

 

An apologist for Gibson after 2016...reminding everyone what he showed in '14 and '15, I was ready to jump off the wagon the first part of 2017. And look what has happened since?

 

Depending on Mauer and Castro, there are holes, to be sure. 1B/DH needs to be looked at, along with 2B and utility. IMO, Mauer is a key. Which position do we invest most in?

 

After that, it's 2B. Re-sign Escobar, and bring in another quality infielder for depth and competition.

 

Then, trade or sign another big arm for the pen.

 

Crazy, but I find the rotation less of a concern than the rotation right now.

[Major League Ready]

 

I AM an eternal optimist. Life or Twins, it's my nature. And I have followed this team for 45 years. I've seen prospects come and go. I have seen guys like Larkin, Stahoviak, Jorgenson, Allen, Pittman, Newman and Nivens, that I THOUGHT might work out. (Just to name a few). And there are guys like Banks, Gasser, Baumgardner, Sontag, Benson that I KNEW were going to turn out, but didn't. (Again, just to name a few).

But I tell you truthfully, I've never doubted Berrios for a minute. And I feel the same way about Rosario, Sano, Polanco and Kepler. Everything I have seen from talent, potential, milb and ML production tells me these guys can do it. SUCKS that everything seemed to fall apart this season. But...we have seen what each of these guys can do!

A re-set, slimmer and healthier Sano already has proven himself previously, and is seems set for a big 2019. Kepler has all the ability in the world. Still growing and developing, and remembering how to hit RH pitching, he's ready to explode. Polanco comes back and hits, and is playing the best defense he's ever played. And we should just give up on the uber-talented Buxton?

An apologist for Gibson after 2016...reminding everyone what he showed in '14 and '15, I was ready to jump off the wagon the first part of 2017. And look what has happened since?

Depending on Mauer and Castro, there are holes, to be sure. 1B/DH needs to be looked at, along with 2B and utility. IMO, Mauer is a key. Which position do we invest most in?

After that, it's 2B. Re-sign Escobar, and bring in another quality infielder for depth and competition.

Then, trade or sign another big arm for the pen.

Crazy, but I find the rotation less of a concern than the rotation right now.

 

I am right there with you on most aspects of this post. However, I do not believe Rosario will ever sustain the type of offensive production we witnessed earlier this year unless he develops a reasonable level of discipline at the plate. His approach is abysmal. He is among the worst in MLB in this area. Perhaps the worst in all of baseball.   For the last 60 days he is 261/383/681 with a wRC+ of 80. He has a lot of weak swings at bad pitches early in the count, even when he is ahead in the count. Aggressive is fine but many of Rosario’s plate appearance fly right past aggressive to take your choice of unflattering adjectives. He is so skilled he can hit at league average or perhaps slightly above but he will never be great if he does not become a more professional hitter.

 

Sano is not nearly as bad as Rosario but he will never be great (IMO) without better disciple or perhaps pitch recognition. The difference in agility/speed is apparent. He is an incredible athlete but his weight has mitigated the benefits of that athleticism. He could stand to lose another 20-25 lbs. I would love to see him show up in that kind of shape. Not just for the obvious benefits on defense and base running but it would demonstrate disciple and commitment. I would be a good sign that that same discipline will start showing up in his ABs.

[Twodogs]

 

They very well could contend next season. They have a solid rotation with plenty of prospects that are going to be in either AA or AAA to start the season. To really take a step to WS contention they will either need some of these players improve or they will need to trade from the very deep farm system for a top 1 or 2 type pitcher. I wouldn't want the Twins to trade for or sign a bottom half of the rotation pitcher as it seems like they have plenty of those.

 

Rotation:

1. Berrios

2. Gibson

3. 

4. Odorizzi

5. Romero / Gonsalves / Mejia / Stewart / Littell / Thorpe / Graterol

 

Lineup:

C - Garver / Castro

1B - Mauer / Austin

2nd - Maybe Escobar? Maybe Forsythe? I don't see Gordon being ready, at least to start the season.

3rd - Sano / Adrianza

SS - Polanco - Adrianza

OF - Rosario / Buxton / Kepler / Cave / Wade

 

Bullpen:

LHR - Rogers / Moya

RHR - May / Hildenberger / Reed / Busenitz

 

If the Twins can resign Escobar to play 2nd and add at least one good bullpen piece (There should be 5 or 6 very good FA's this offseason) I believe they should be in good shape. If they can make a trade that nets a very good starting pitcher I believe they should be a WS contender. The Twins were hit hard by injuries / suspensions this year. Add in some better health and the Twins should be in a good spot.

C. Castro miss most of the season

1st. Mauer missed a month and didn't look great when he came back.

3rd. Sano missed significant time and wasn't in great shape after not being able to work out in the Winter

SS. Polanco missed the 1st half with a suspension and has looked great in his return

CF. Buxton has basically missed the entire season with migraines or injuries

SR. Sanatana has basically missed the entire season with injuries.

I think the Twins went after starting pitching this year, and looking at those names they will have some guys that can get through 5 innings on a regular basis, Romero, Mejia, Pineda, and Odorizzi have all proven they can get through 5 innings.  Where I feel the Twins need to spend big money is in the bullpen, bring in 3 or 4 guys that have proven track records and they can play musical chairs with the rest of the BP with Rochester like every other team does.  How many times this year have the the Twins had the lead or been really close only to get blown out in the last 2 or 3 innings.  Look at yesterday's game with the A's for example.  2 - 1 game going into the 8th and ends up 7 - 1.  Odorizzi did ok, on a team with a legit bullpen he probably has 2 or 3 more wins, as would most of the other Twins pitchers like Gibby and such.  Spend on the BP, big time.