Other SP trade candidates: Aaron Nola, any others that you like?

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: There seems to be more bickering going on here than is healthy; some posts have been removed from view as a consequence. A little less needling, and a little less response to needling, would be a good idea. It's not automatically wrong to respond with humor to a thought that you disagree with, but it carries risk and it's best to be ready to apologize and dial it back if it gets misunderstood. Please, all, keep the discussion mutually respectful, regardless of how strongly you disagree with someone's point.

[Respy]

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/7/17/15980078/phillies-trade-talk-is-there-any-scenario-in-which-trading-aaron-nola-makes-sense

 

"Phillies trade talk: Is there any scenario in which trading Aaron Nola makes sense?"

[Mike Sixel]

Apparently the GM was just was quoted as saying it is hard to give up prospects in trades, so apparently we aren't doing that either....

[Thrylos]

 

I'd love to have Archer, but just glancing down SP numbers, hows about Aaron Nola? The Phillies stink, so I'd imagine that they have some needs. On second thought, with their record, I KNOW they have lots of needs.

 

 

No you don't

 

The Phillies did something rare for a big market team: a full rebuild.  They are actually now a little bit ahead of where the Twins were last season at this point:  They have a good core of young soon to be stars (Crawford, Alther, Hoskins, Herrera, Hernandez).  They had a decent pen last season, that comes back intact, and with the addition of Tommy Hunter.   Their rotation as stands are a bunch of 24-26 year olds with decent upside, led by Nola.  They spend $ to add Carlos Santana.  They are a big market team, led by the guy who brought the only 2 championships in sports that matter to Minnesota, and are a good 50-75 million under what they can spend coming into 2018 with a whole bunch of free agents out and about in soon to be bargain prices.

 

That can be a really scary team in 2018, if they decide to do so...

[bcs4]

 

No you don't

 

The Phillies did something rare for a big market team: a full rebuild.  They are actually now a little bit ahead of where the Twins were last season at this point:  They have a good core of young soon to be stars (Crawford, Alther, Hoskins, Herrera, Hernandez).  They had a decent pen last season, that comes back intact, and with the addition of Tommy Hunter.   Their rotation as stands are a bunch of 24-26 year olds with decent upside, led by Nola.  They spend $ to add Carlos Santana.  They are a big market team, led by the guy who brought the only 2 championships in sports that matter to Minnesota, and are a good 50-75 million under what they can spend coming into 2018 with a whole bunch of free agents out and about in soon to be bargain prices.

 

That can be a really scary team in 2018, if they decide to do so...

 

Yes, I said that I had misread the Phillies position, and also mentioned that that they were dropping a bunch of salary. I understand that now, thanks!

[markos]

At this point, it might be more worthwhile to try to guess who is going to be selling at the trade deadline. Stroman has already been mentioned. Do the Mariners make Paxton available? What about the Orioles with Gausman or Bundy? I have a hard time seeing the Giants putting Bumgarner on the block, but maybe Samardzija? Does the new FO in Arizona try to get out from under the Greinke contract if they falter this year? At what point to the Mets need to start rebuilding? Does that make deGrom available?

[jimmer]

Apparently the GM was just was quoted as saying it is hard to give up prospects in trades, so apparently we aren't doing that either....

so when our window of contention is supposedly open, we wont sign top notch FA pitching nor trade for one using a supposedly strong farm system. Leaves us one option: our organizational strength: DEVELOPING top notch pitching.

[jimmer]

At this point, it might be more worthwhile to try to guess who is going to be selling at the trade deadline. Stroman has already been mentioned. Do the Mariners make Paxton available? What about the Orioles with Gausman or Bundy? I have a hard time seeing the Giants putting Bumgarner on the block, but maybe Samardzija? Does the new FO in Arizona try to get out from under the Greinke contract if they falter this year? At what point to the Mets need to start rebuilding? Does that make deGrom available?

i wouldnt want to see the prices for midseason trades while contending teams shore up their rotations for playoff push. IMO, its the worse time to buy pitching.

[amjgt]

 

Stroman's shiny ERA is driven mostly by his 60% GB. After years of Blackburn, Silva, etc... I am hesitant to buy into that. On the other hand he does strike out many more batters than either of those former Twins. SIERA likes but doesn't love him.

 

In the end I would be ok with him but I think he's a step below Archer and deGrom.

 

 

It's a little tiny step, in terms of projected effectiveness, although he only comes with, I believe, two years of team control compared to Archer's 4 and deGrom's 3

 

Combined 2016-17 xFIP:

7 Jacob deGrom 3.33
8 Chris Archer 3.38
9 Dallas Keuchel 3.43
10 Robbie Ray 3.47
11 Marcus Stroman 3.50

 

 

[amjgt]

Stroman has had the same issue that Archer has had, which is pitching in the AL East and having it balloon your numbers.

[Oxtung]

 

It's a little tiny step, in terms of projected effectiveness, although he only comes with, I believe, two years of team control compared to Archer's 4 and deGrom's 3

 

Combined 2016-17 xFIP:

7 Jacob deGrom 3.33
8 Chris Archer 3.38
9 Dallas Keuchel 3.43
10 Robbie Ray 3.47
11 Marcus Stroman 3.50

 

2017 SIERA

Chris Archer 3.44

Jacob deGrom 3.44

Robbie Ray 3.53

Dallas Keuchel 3.61

Marcus Stroman 3.83

 

 

It is interesting to me that SIERA doesn't like Stroman since it takes batted ball profile into account. I would have thought Stroman would have fared better than Archer and deGrom who give up quite a few fly balls and home runs.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I’d be okay with Stroman, my only concern with him is durability as he’s a fairly small pitcher at 5’8”. I guess it depends on how much the Twins are willing to give up and if the Blue Jays are even interested in trading Stroman.

[beckmt]

Toronto and Baltimore are clubs to follow as they may go into a semi rebuild mode in midseason if things do not go well (and Baltimore will not probably go well). That is why you may find starters available there in midseason not available now.