JT Realmuto.....go get him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

FWIW, the Brewers got #20 + #47 for Lucroy (per ESPN's mid season update in 2016).  

Did that midseason update include 2016 draftees and international signings? By BA, BP, and MLB, Luis Ortiz's ranking was a bit lower than that and virtually unchanged between 2016 and 2017 (ranging from 64-73 and 62-79, respectively).

[Vanimal46]

I agree it will take2-3 really good prospects to get Realmuto but no way should this team consider doing it. We have a good young group that will not be competitive for a couple years. By the time we would get competitive he would be looking to leave. Castro is back next year and while his offense if not good he is a decent defensive catcher.

If this team can't compete for a couple of years they might as well trade them now. Because at that point Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Berrios are approaching free agency.

[alarp33]

 

There's an argument that Lewis/Kirilloff is a better tandem than Brinson/Ortiz -- Brinson is top 20 like Lewis but was having a pretty mediocre season in AA at the time. And Ortiz was only ranked 62-78 that following offseason, and wasn't really rising or answering questions with his performance or durability. The recent revelation about Lewis' health would have to be a factor too, but I could see a fair number of teams preferring Lewis/Kirilloff.

 

And Lucroy was paired with 3.5 seasons of RP Jeffress who was a closer with a 2.22 ERA at the time. Maybe if Miami added Kyle Barraclough?

 

And of course what would you say now if Lucroy hadn't exercised his no-trade clause and was dealt to Cleveland instead for only one 1 top 100 prospect (albeit a catcher, Mejia)? Would that have been the absolute price for predicting future deals? There's a lot of room for variations in valuation beyond prospect ranks. Not enough to call Kepler/Gonsalves/Gordon a headliner -- but enough that it is quite possible this deal won't involve two top 50 prospects.

 

Ortiz was #46 on Keith Law's update that summer, he was a 20 year old in AA at the time of the trade.  

 

I don't put much stock at all in Jeffress being included.  Sure it was a nice add, but he was traded a year later for a non prospect.  

 

I do put a lot of stock in the fact that Realmuto has the extra year of control over Lucroy, and is 27 not 30

[alarp33]

 

Did that midseason update include 2016 draftees and international signings? By BA, BP, and MLB, Luis Ortiz's ranking was a bit lower than that and virtually unchanged between 2016 and 2017 (ranging from 64-73 and 62-79, respectively).

 

It was published on 7/14/16, right before the deadline for draftees to sign... a few that had already signed were included.  Also removes the players from the pre-season 2016 rankings who had graduated to the majors

[Tomj14]

 

What minor league pitcher do the Twins have that has significant trade value? I used "meh" because they don't have a SP that is worth a whole lot in the minors. Graterol is intriguing but he's certainly no where near ready to headline a deal or be a significant piece of it

I disagree with the notion that Graterol isn't ready to be headliner in a deal.

How many players on the Twins right now wouldn't you trade to get another pitcher in the Twins organization with Graterol's upside? Berrios, Rosario (everybody would have last year) and Romero?

 

[Tomj14]

 

If this team can't compete for a couple of years they might as well trade them now. Because at that point Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Berrios are approaching free agency.

and I would add to your 100% correct comment, who is going to replace them that is going to be as good?

[labcrazy]

 

If this team can't compete for a couple of years they might as well trade them now. Because at that point Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Berrios are approaching free agency.

Sad to say but that's the way it appears to me. Houston, Yanks and Red Sox are all significantly better than we are and that's not going to change anytime soon. If compete means in the division they have a chance. If compete means to win the World Series it ain't happening in the next 2-3 years.

[alarp33]

 

If this team can't compete for a couple of years they might as well trade them now. Because at that point Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, and Berrios are approaching free agency.

 

Because the Twins are nowhere near the level of the Astros, Yankees, etc. right now they should just throw up their hands and sell Buxton and Sano at the absolute bottom of their value 4 years before they're free agents? I would certainly not recommend that approach

[Shaitan]

 

Because the Twins are nowhere near the level of the Astros, Yankees, etc. right now they should just throw up their hands and sell Buxton and Sano at the absolute bottom of their value 4 years before they're free agents? I would certainly not recommend that approach

 

Ask yourself: What would Pittsburgh do?

 

A: this

 

Then do the opposite.

[Vanimal46]

Because the Twins are nowhere near the level of the Astros, Yankees, etc. right now they should just throw up their hands and sell Buxton and Sano at the absolute bottom of their value 4 years before they're free agents? I would certainly not recommend that approach

Neither do I. That was my response to labcrazy who said this is a young team that's 2-3 years away from competing.

 

I think the core is here right now, and there's limited options to upgrade on the field. Catcher is certainly one of the positions where they can upgrade.

[Mike Sixel]

It's not a young team, btw.

[alarp33]

 

Neither do I. That was my response to labcrazy who said this is a young team that's 2-3 years away from competing.

I think the core is here right now, and there's limited options to upgrade on the field. Catcher is certainly one of the positions where they can upgrade.

 

Well they aren't competing this year, and its going to take a hell of an off season to compete next year.  

 

Sure they can upgrade catcher, but my point has been why would you do it right now? If Buxton and Sano stink, this team definitely is 3+ years from contention so why are you giving up top 100 prospects for a catcher that will be a FA by the time the team reloads?

 

If Sano and Buxton figure it out (I still think possible) THEN you maybe make a move like trading the farm for Realmuto. The timing as we sit here today could not be worse

[Vanimal46]

Well they aren't competing this year, and its going to take a hell of an off season to compete next year.

 

Sure they can upgrade catcher, but my point has been why would you do it right now? If Buxton and Sano stink, this team definitely is 3+ years from contention so why are you giving up top 100 prospects for a catcher that will be a FA by the time the team reloads?

Because I think they can compete this year for a division title. Cleveland isn't a great team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ortiz was #46 on Keith Law's update that summer, he was a 20 year old in AA at the time of the trade.  

 

I don't put much stock at all in Jeffress being included.  Sure it was a nice add, but he was traded a year later for a non prospect.  

 

I do put a lot of stock in the fact that Realmuto has the extra year of control over Lucroy, and is 27 not 30

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in Keith Law vs the consensus of BA, BP, and MLB. Additionally, I hadn't looked before, but Sickels had Ortiz ranked 80th before 2016, and 120th before 2017 (although noted he was in a group who could have a case for the 80's). He was 20 in AA but not particularly effective or durable. (Note he's almost 23 now, still in AA, and still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a pro season...) It's quite possible both the Rangers and the Marlins valued him closer to BA/BP/MLB/Sickels.

 

Jeffress has had an interesting career. He's had quite an effective run out-performing his peripherals in Milwaukee. It just didn't work out in Texas, and they were out of the race in 2017 and probably not interested in taking him to arbitration again.

 

I also wouldn't put too much stock in the age/control difference between 2018 Realmuto and 2016 Lucroy because the 2016 Rangers didn't have the option of trading for 2018 Realmuto in 2016. Age and control are absolutely points in 2018 Realmuto's favor, but how that translates to market value in 2018 is quite an open question. Obviously I don't think it's reasonable to suggest Realmuto could be had for Kepler or Graterol, but I also don't think we can use Keith Law's ranks for Brinson and Ortiz as some kind of gold standard either.

[alarp33]

 

Because I think they can compete this year for a division title. Cleveland isn't a great team.

 

We are on vastly different wavelengths on how to build a team then. I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.  

[TheLeviathan]

Is it possible the Marlins wait until the offseason?

 

Could you take a gamble on Lucroy instead?  He's still a good defensive catcher and he has demonstrated an offensive game in the past.  

[USAFChief]

 

We are on vastly different wavelengths on how to build a team then. I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.  

wut??

[alarp33]

 

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in Keith Law vs the consensus of BA, BP, and MLB. Additionally, I hadn't looked before, but Sickels had Ortiz ranked 80th before 2016, and 120th before 2017 (although noted he was in a group who could have a case for the 80's). He was 20 in AA but not particularly effective or durable. (Note he's almost 23 now, still in AA, and still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a pro season...) It's quite possible both the Rangers and the Marlins valued him closer to BA/BP/MLB/Sickels.

 

Jeffress has had an interesting career. He's had quite an effective run out-performing his peripherals in Milwaukee. It just didn't work out in Texas, and they were out of the race in 2017 and probably not interested in taking him to arbitration again.

 

I also wouldn't put too much stock in the age/control difference between 2018 Realmuto and 2016 Lucroy because the 2016 Rangers didn't have the option of trading for 2018 Realmuto in 2016. Age and control are absolutely points in 2018 Realmuto's favor, but how that translates to market value in 2018 is quite an open question. Obviously I don't think it's reasonable to suggest Realmuto could be had for Kepler or Graterol, but I also don't think we can use Keith Law's ranks for Brinson and Ortiz as some kind of gold standard either.

 

Agreed. Lucroy will be used as a comp, but it's certainly not a perfect one. I know the Indians were giving up "less" before the trade was blocked, but that same no trade clause also eliminated some teams that could have offered more. 

 

I think Realmuto is worth more than Lucroy was, but none of us have any idea how the Brewers or Rangers valued Brinson/ Ortiz so it's all speculation.   

[alarp33]

 

wut??

 

What was unclear about what I typed? You'll have to be more specific

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I disagree with the notion that Graterol isn't ready to be headliner in a deal.

How many players on the Twins right now wouldn't you trade to get another pitcher in the Twins organization with Graterol's upside? Berrios, Rosario (everybody would have last year) and Romero?

Graterol is an exciting pitcher with very little experience in low A. That's worth something, but it's not exactly a rare currency in baseball either. There's a reason he's not in top 100 lists quite yet.

[alarp33]

 

Is it possible the Marlins wait until the offseason?

 

Could you take a gamble on Lucroy instead?  He's still a good defensive catcher and he has demonstrated an offensive game in the past.  

 

Yes. The return in November won't be much different at all than it will be in late July. If anything it brings more teams into it while only sacrificing 2 months (and playoffs) of control.  

 

I'd look at Lucroy or Ramos. I still would want to see more out of this team who's 6 games out in the central and 11 games out in the WC before giving up a significant piece

[Vanimal46]

We are on vastly different wavelengths on how to build a team then. I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.

Definitely. But it makes the discussion fun. We won't know until it's too late if this is the peak trade value for a prospect like Lewis, or if it's only the beginning. There's countless examples of trades where prospects are traded at their peak (Giolito when he was ~#5 prospect in all of baseball for Adam Eaton - now he's a disaster for CWS) and where prospects are traded too early before their peak (Syndergaard for R.A. Dickey)

 

I don't see the Twins giving up on much of the core in the next couple of years so let's find a significant difference maker to supplement the core.

[USAFChief]

 

What was unclear about what I typed? You'll have to be more specific

You wouldn't trade one top 20 prospect for a division title?

 

I simply cannot fathom that level of prospect overvaluation.

[alarp33]

 

You wouldn't trade one top 20 prospect for a division title?

 

I simply cannot fathom that level of prospect overvaluation.

 

The Twins have a 3.9% chance to win the Central. No, I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds. And I'm guessing no GM in their right mind would either. 

 

Can you provide a similar example in the history of baseball where a team in the Twins current position has made a trade like that?

[Mike Sixel]

Yes. The return in November won't be much different at all than it will be in late July. If anything it brings more teams into it while only sacrificing 2 months (and playoffs) of control.

 

I'd look at Lucroy or Ramos. I still would want to see more out of this team who's 6 games out in the central and 11 games out in the WC before giving up a significant piece

And what do you do for catcher next year? I have zero interest in trading for rentals right now. Long term assets? Sure.

[alarp33]

 

And what do you do for catcher next year? I have zero interest in trading for rentals right now. Long term assets? Sure.

 

I would not trade for rentals right now. I have zero interest in that either. I would keep them on the radar if something crazy happens over the next month to flip the Twins 2018 odds around. 

 

Next year? Lots of options for how this team can improve next offseason. I'd certainly look at Ramos, but am also not totally against rolling with Garver + Castro and spending the money/ resources elsewhere

[Tomj14]

 

Graterol is an exciting pitcher with very little experience in low A. That's worth something, but it's not exactly a rare currency in baseball either. There's a reason he's not in top 100 lists quite yet.

So I ask again, is there any Twins you wouldn't trade with him being the headliner? bleacherreport.com has in at 47, and others I find had him as a break out candidate for this year. If he says healthy he will be on all lists by year end.

[Vanimal46]

The Twins have a 3.9% chance to win the Central. No, I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds. And I'm guessing no GM in their right mind would either.

 

Can you provide a similar example in the history of baseball where a team in the Twins current position has made a trade like that?

NY Mets in 2015 hovered around .500 through the end of July. Remained within a couple games of division leader WAS. Traded for Yoenis Cespedes, the team got hot in August/September, and rode that momentum to the WS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is it possible the Marlins wait until the offseason?

The Marlins could definitely wait. They didn't trade Realmuto in their purge last winter, and they still have 2 years control after this one.

 

But they might not get any more for him by waiting. Acquiring teams would lose the benefit of having him in the 2018 pennant race / postseason, and Realmuto's performance could regress too (note his current superlative 140 wRC+ consists of largely the same peripherals as last year's more pedestrian 105 wRC+, except for +.053 ISO -- is that more real power development, or a half-season statistical variation?). Not to mention the increased injury risk for catchers -- Lucroy's 2015 season is a reminder of that (a foul ball broke his toe, then later in the season he had a concussion).

[Tomj14]

 

I would not trade for rentals right now. I have zero interest in that either. I would keep them on the radar if something crazy happens over the next month to flip the Twins 2018 odds around. 

 

Next year? Lots of options for how this team can improve next offseason. I'd certainly look at Ramos, but am also not totally against rolling with Garver + Castro and spending the money/ resources elsewhere

Curious, where would you spend the money next year?

Outfield looks set, Starting pitchers seem set, we have a bunch of Relief pitchers holding spots on the 40 man, Between Polanco and Gordon, we have the middle covered.

So that leaves 3B, 1B, and DH.

Hopefully Sano is 1B or DH, and Escobar is 3B.

Lewis, Rooker, Wade and Kirilloff are getting close and don't want them blocked by a long term contact.