Morneau Offseason Trade?

[rondellwhitesupremacy]

Judging from the 'reluctance' by the Twins to bring up Parmelee to be an 'utility' (DH/1B/RF) player for the rest of the season; to me signals that the Twins may be ready to deal Morneau in the offseason. Any takers? Who could Morneau go to and for what? Judging from recent trades we could probably expect prospects in the range of C+ to D-...

 

Talk about it.

[kab21]

We've already talked about it. there is no point to trade Morneau unless you are getting a good prospect back. due to his 14M salary that is very unlikely even if the Twins picked up half. It sucks for Parmelee but it's only a matter of time before one of Doumit/Mauer/Morneau get injured. Even before then he can get AB's by each of them taking a day off each week and getting another start in RF (even if it is brutal).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see him benig dealt for the right package, but his value will likely only continue to rise as time goes on (unless he gets hurt again). One advantage to dealing him is that a team can make a QO to him and get picks if he leaves.

 

He appears to be more like the old Morneau now and could benefit from a normal offseason. At the deadline next year, if he's looking closer to MVP Morneau and is only owed 7M, I can pretty much guarantee you that someone will offer something very nice for him.

[Winston Smith]

I'd try the Mariners for a trade. They need people in the seats, they need hitting and Morneau is not only a local (within 2 hrs) guy but he can hit homeruns which fans love. The first baseman now is hitting under .200, not good. They also are one of the few teams that seems to have plenty of pitching. Makes some sense likely won't happen.

I'd also call the Rays this winter see if they need a center fielder, Span, a local guy (Upton is a free agent) for some pitching in exchange. How about Span for Shields?

This make believe GM stuff is so easy!

[jeffk]

The folks pushing for mixing in Parmelee with the other DH/1B starters are not making the most efficient use of our resources. On a team with money and depth and no major issues, then it's really nice to have a good young prospect play half the season behind a core of veterans. In the case of the Twins, with their gaping holes and budget issues, there is simply not that luxury. The loss of Morneau will be sad, but even if we don't get much in return, that $14M is two decent starting pitchers. A team with Parmelee at 1B and two good starting pitchers is a better team than one with Parmelee at AAA and no decent starting pitchers. Someone getting injured is just a risk you have to take; not trading Morneau is guaranteeing failure for the team by virtue of having no starting pitching.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The folks pushing for mixing in Parmelee with the other DH/1B starters are not making the most efficient use of our resources. On a team with money and depth and no major issues, then it's really nice to have a good young prospect play half the season behind a core of veterans. In the case of the Twins, with their gaping holes and budget issues, there is simply not that luxury. The loss of Morneau will be sad, but even if we don't get much in return, that $14M is two decent starting pitchers. A team with Parmelee at 1B and two good starting pitchers is a better team than one with Parmelee at AAA and no decent starting pitchers. Someone getting injured is just a risk you have to take; not trading Morneau is guaranteeing failure for the team by virtue of having no starting pitching.

 

The team has plenty of money to pick up pitching this offseason. Morneau doesn't change that significantly. It's not as if the Twins are going to throw half of their payroll at two top-shelf starters in the offseason no matter how much money they had to spend. It's a bad long-term decision for the franchise.

 

On the other hand, getting a quality pitching prospect for Justin next July does significantly change the future of this organization.

[jeffk]

Morneau doesn't change that significantly.

 

How is $14M not significant?

 

getting a quality pitching prospect for Justin next July

 

That's not a sure thing; even if he's good, as we saw this year there's a limit on what you can get for a 3-month rental. I don't recall any top prospects being moved for future free agents.

[Brock Beauchamp]

>Morneau doesn't change that significantly.

 

How is $14M not significant?

 

>getting a quality pitching prospect for Justin next July

 

That's not a sure thing; even if he's good, as we saw this year there's a limit on what you can get for a 3-month rental. I don't recall any top prospects being moved for future free agents.

 

$14m isn't significant because the Twins already have enough money for a Jackson/Sanchez/whatever type pitcher. In the same offseason, they're not going to dedicate $30m+ a year for 3-5 years to pick up two of those guys. It's not a smart move to make in this type of situation. They have the money they need to improve the pitching staff. More money isn't going to help much because they won't spend it anyway (nor should they).

 

It's not a sure thing that they'll get a prospect for Justin but right now, his value is on the rise from being virtually nil last offseason. If he stays healthy, the Twins are looking at a half season of an .850+ OPS player and then a prospect for him at the deadline. The Tigers gave up a fair amount for Sanchez/Infante. The market is there if you think outside the box a little. Next July, the Twins could be looking at a solid return if they bundle, say, Morneau and Perkins into a deal.

[TNTwinsFan]

>Morneau doesn't change that significantly.

 

How is $14M not significant?

 

>getting a quality pitching prospect for Justin next July

 

That's not a sure thing; even if he's good, as we saw this year there's a limit on what you can get for a 3-month rental. I don't recall any top prospects being moved for future free agents.

 

$14m isn't significant because the Twins already have enough money for a Jackson/Sanchez/whatever type pitcher. In the same offseason, they're not going to dedicate $30m+ a year for 3-5 years to pick up two of those guys. It's not a smart move to make in this type of situation. They have the money they need to improve the pitching staff. More money isn't going to help much because they won't spend it anyway (nor should they).

 

It's not a sure thing that they'll get a prospect for Justin but right now, his value is on the rise from being virtually nil last offseason. If he stays healthy, the Twins are looking at a half season of an .850+ OPS player and then a prospect for him at the deadline. The Tigers gave up a fair amount for Sanchez/Infante. The market is there if you think outside the box a little. Next July, the Twins could be looking at a solid return if they bundle, say, Morneau and Perkins into a deal.

 

There may be a thread out there discussing this topic already, but lets pretend the Twins generally stick with who they have with their position players (not including the potential prospect call-up, etc) and they focus on adding SP through FA next year. What would be some REALISTIC FA SP pick-ups that might get them to a competitive position again?

[RedBull34]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Has a good list of SP FA's this year.

[kab21]

Morneau doesn't change that significantly.

 

How is $14M not significant?

 

getting a quality pitching prospect for Justin next July

 

That's not a sure thing; even if he's good, as we saw this year there's a limit on what you can get for a 3-month rental. I don't recall any top prospects being moved for future free agents.

 

the problems with your plan

 

A) there is no team that is going to pick up the full 14M in addition to giving up a good prospect to do it

 

There isn't much of a problem with money next year. The problem is that any FA that is worth signing is likely getting a 3-5 year contract. signing multiple 30+ yr old starters that will almost certainly fade as they hit their mid 30's will put this team in a very bad position in the future.

 

If the twins can get a good prospect back for Morneau (or Parmelee) then I'm all for trading him but that just isn't realistic. It will either be a salary dump for a minor prospect or the Twins will have to pay most of the salary to get a decent prospect. Might as well keep him if that is the case.

[Rosterman]

Morneau is tradeable next year if a team loses a 1Bman or in the wild card run. No off-season movement. No place except the bench for Parmelee...so let him finish the Rochester season, then bring him up and see if you really want him resting Doumit or Morneau, or trying his hand in right or left for a few games. Parmelee, if Morneau stays, will be back at AAA full-time next year.....

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins can get something special for Morneau this offseason sure, move him. Otherwise wait until next July. It's a total fluke that Morneau, Doumit and Willingham have all stayed relatively healthy thus far this season. Those three have always been very injury prone. Odds are Parmelee will find an opening due to one of them going down sooner or later. Parmelee is a good contingency plan, it would seem foolish not to have one with so many of the corner IF/OF guys having a history of injuries.

[beckmt]

There are a few landing spots for Morneau in the off season. LA is lacking a first baseman and so is Seattle, Oakland could be another spot for him. Between those 3 teams one of them should make an offer, though the Dodgers are quoted as having 4 untoachable pitchers. I would think one of them would offer a starter that would work. To the dreamers that think trading him at the deadline will work, most deadline clubs will look for players being salary dumped first, this is what the Dodgers asked in July. At that time most of the salary constrained clubs will not give a decent prospect without the Twins picking up most of the salary. Offseason, most clubs will set their budget based on what they know. That will be the time to trade Morneau. I might try to see if Morneau would take a two year extension in the 9 - 10 million range and only trade him if he will not. Parmalee could bring a return if packaged with Span to upgrade a small market team(read Seattle or Oakland).

[kab21]

There are a few landing spots for Morneau in the off season. LA is lacking a first baseman and so is Seattle, Oakland could be another spot for him. Between those 3 teams one of them should make an offer, though the Dodgers are quoted as having 4 untoachable pitchers. I would think one of them would offer a starter that would work. To the dreamers that think trading him at the deadline will work, most deadline clubs will look for players being salary dumped first, this is what the Dodgers asked in July. At that time most of the salary constrained clubs will not give a decent prospect without the Twins picking up most of the salary. Offseason, most clubs will set their budget based on what they know. That will be the time to trade Morneau. I might try to see if Morneau would take a two year extension in the 9 - 10 million range and only trade him if he will not. Parmalee could bring a return if packaged with Span to upgrade a small market team(read Seattle or Oakland).

 

You're dreaming much more than the midseason trade dreamers. It doesn't matter how much money a team has in its offseason budget, they aren't taking Morneau's whole contract (much less giving up a good prospect). In July he'll only be owed about 5M so it wouldn't be difficult for the Twins to pick up a couple of million to get a decent prospect.

 

I'm not sure if anything changed in the last CBA but extension have to 80% of the previous yearly value. Essentially the Twins would have to extend Morneau for about 11M/yr or wait until he is a FA to offer a lower amount.