How Things Shape Up, Sept. 18 edition

[IndianaTwin]

Something old… the Twins are still two games up on the Angels and a few games behind the Yankees.

 

Something new… the remaining five teams with anything but mathematical chances to make the playoffs have almost played themselves down to only mathematical chances.

 

It was a 4-2 week for the Twins. On one hand, that’s good, but on the other, it can feel a little disappointing after starting 3-0 and having the opportunity to really open things up with another two or three wins. Instead, the Twins only won one of three the rest of the way and had the Angels creep within a game heading into Sunday.

 

On the third hand (nah, let’s move to the feet), the generally .500 teams hovering around the second wild spot have been playing generally .500 ball or worse, so when the Twins go 4-2, they start to separate. The Twins have gone 6-4 over the last 10, for example, but only one of the teams following them (the Mariners) have won even five in that time. The other five behind the Twins have combined to go 16-34 in that time. But while there are only 13 games left, things aren’t over with those teams. Even .500 teams can win three in a row, and the Twins have three against the tough Yankees. A Yankees sweep combined with a Mariners/Royals/Rangers/Orioles/Rays sweep would lift that team right back into the race.

 

And on the remaining foot, as the Twins head to New York, their closest rival, the Angels, get the privilege of hosting Cleveland. It’s difficult to think of the Twins sweeping the Yankees, but it seems even more difficult to think of the Angels getting a sweep. A sweep over the Yankees, however, is probably what it will take for the Twins to close the gap and have even a shot at hosting the Wild Card game. Winning only two of three only closes the gap to 3 games with 10 to play.

 

Because the Yankees have a six-game lead on the Angels, fivethirtyeight.com puts the Yankees odds of reaching the playoffs at greater than 99 percent. The site does like the Twins situation, however, putting the odds at 71 percent compared to the Angels 23 percent. None of the remaining five have greater than a 2 percent chance, with the Rays and Orioles at less than 1 percent.

 

Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when the Blue Jays arrived.

 

Before:
NYY   +3
Min    ---
LAA    -2.0
Sea   -3.5
KC    -4.0
Tex   -4.0
Bal    -4.5
TB     -5.0

 

After:
NYY    +4.0
Min     ---
LAA    -2.0
Sea     -4.5
KC      -5.0
Tex     -5.0
Bal      -5.5
TB      -5.5

 

So, we lost a game to the Yankees and stayed even with the Angels. However, we gained a game on virtually everyone else, the exception being the half game on the Rays, who are at the bottom of the list.

 

Next up:
Min @ NYY
Bos @ Bal
KC @ Tor
ChC @ TB (2)
Cle @ LAA
Tex @ Sea

 

Snapshot
Here’s the snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes.

YANKEES

• Record: 82-67.
• Games ahead/back: +4.0
• Luck: -9
• 538.com projection: 90-72 (8-5 the rest of the way)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: >99%
• Games against good: None.
• Games against middle: Home 7 (Min 3, TB 3, KC 1).
• Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 73-77.
• Summary: They continue to hang around the edge of the divisional race, closing to within three of Boston, giving them a 20 percent chance to catch the BoSox. To protect home field advantage for the Wild Card game, they probably just need to win at least one against the Twins. The Twins are the best team the Yankees still face, so the schedule is beneficial. In addition, 10 of their last 13 games are at home.

TWINS

• Record: 78-71.
• Games ahead/back: ---
• Luck: 3.
• 538.com projection: 84-78 (6-7).
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 71%
• Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).
• Games against middle: Road 3 (NYY 3).
• Games against bad: Home 3 (Det 3), Road 4 (Det 4).
• Average record for remaining games: 78-71.
• Summary: Sweeping the Yankees is needed to have a chance for an Oct. 3 home game. With the series with the Padres and Toronto out of the way, the Twins have gone from having one of the easiest remaining schedules to one of the toughest. Playing at least .500 ball is key, but so is having the Angels do no better than that as well.

LA ANGELS

• Record: 76-73.
• Games ahead/back: -2
• Luck: 1
• 538.com projection: 83-79 (7-6)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 23%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).
• Games against middle: Home 3 (Sea 3).
• Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).
• Average record for remaining games: 78-71.
• Summary: Opportunity is in front of the Angels if they can play Cleveland better than the Twins do. But if the Twins can go at least 7-6 the rest of the way, it would mean the Angels needing to go at least 9-4, which seems rough against a schedule that includes both Cleveland and the Astros.

MARINERS

• Record: 74-76
• Games ahead/back: -4.5
• Luck: 2
• 538.com projection: 80-82 (6-6)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 2%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3).
• Games against middle: Home 3 (Tex 3), Road 3 (LAA 3).
• Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 77-72.
• Summary: When you’re 4.5 back with 14 to play, the formula is pretty simple. Win.  Sweeps are needed. Even if the Twins lose all three in New York, the Mariners winning only 2 of 3 still leaves them 2.5 out.

RANGERS

• Record: 73-76.
• Games ahead/back: -5.0.
• Luck: -3
• 538.com projection: 80-82 (7-6)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 2%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).
• Games against middle: Road 3 (Sea 3).
• Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 74-76.
• Summary: See Mariners comment, only make it a half-game worse.

ROYALS

• Record: 73-76.
• Games ahead/back: -5.0.
• Luck: 6
• 538.com projection: 79-83 (6-7)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 1%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3).
• Games against middle: Road 1 (NYY 1).
• Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 71-79.
• Summary: See Rangers. And Pythagoras still doesn’t like them. They do have 9 remaining games against bad teams, however, so going on a winning streak is theoretically more possible. Pythagoras considers them a bad team, however, suggesting they should be about 15 games under .500.

ORIOLES

• Record: 73-77.
• Games ahead/back: -5.5
• Luck: 4
• 538.com projection: 79-83 (6-7)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: <1%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3).
• Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 3 (TB 3).
• Games against bad: Road 2 (Pit 2).
• Average record for remaining games: 75-75.
• Summary: They are 5.5 back, including six in the loss column, with a schedule that doesn’t help them. Short of running the board or close to it, they are done.

RAYS

• Record: 73-77
• Games ahead/back: -5.5
• Luck: 0
• 538.com projection: 79-83 (6-6)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: <1%
• Games against good: Home 2 (Cubs 2).
• Games against middle: Home 3 (Bal 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).
• Games against bad: 0.
• Average record for remaining games: 77-73.
• Summary: See Orioles.

Explanatory notes:

• Team name: Duh.
• Record: Actual won-loss record.
• Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).
• Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).
• 538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/.
• 538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.
• Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”
• Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City).
• Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).
• (Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)
• Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.
• Summary: My comments.

[Oldgoat_MN]

This is really fun, IndianaTwin. Thank you.

As nice as this looks, the Twins still need to win their games. Beating the Yankees in all 3 games would be, um, helpful. It would also excite a conversation about hosting the WC game.

Santana, Berrios and Big Sexy. As far as the first two games go, I think that's as good as we get, so we sorta kinda need to win those games to really believe we belong in the post-season.

[spinowner]

Another factor to consider: Cleveland and Houston have clinched the Central and West divisions, respectively. That means they can give more regulars more time off as the postseason gets closer. However, they are only 1.5 games apart for the best league record, which determines who plays the wild card game winner in the ALDS and who gets home field advantage in the ALCS. Both advantages are worth having but the former is probably a bigger advantage than the latter because the wild card team will probably have pitched its best pitcher in the wild card elimination game. There's also the unwritten rule that teams not in the race for the postseason field their best lineups against teams that are. So it will be interesting to see how those teams handle the upcoming two weeks.

[Doubles]

Great stuff here, IT.  Thanks for taking the time to post this.

[gunnarthor]

I'm totally going to count my chickens before they hatch but we'll sweep the Yankees and get home field for the wild card.

[goulik]

Those dang Angels just keep hanging around... They make me real nervous. Otherwise, it looks like it is now 3 teams fighting for two spots. I like our odds. I like the Yankees odds more.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, we needed to take one more against Toronto... oh well. Let's just sweep the Yankees!

[Mike Sixel]

1 game play in with the Angels.....Mejia vs Nolasco.....

 

in a serious post....if the Angels had Meyer healthy....

[spinowner]

Going into today's games (9/20) Baltimore has been eliminated from contention for the first wild card berth.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Going into today's games (9/20) Baltimore has been eliminated from contention for the first wild card berth.

 

they really should gut the roster this off season. Imagine losing Machado for virtually nothing....vs what he could return in a trade!

[gunnarthor]

 

they really should gut the roster this off season. Imagine losing Machado for virtually nothing....vs what he could return in a trade!

What would you give up for one year of Machado?  

[Mike Sixel]

 

What would you give up for one year of Machado?  

 

For the Twins, or in general?

 

Frankly, they should have dealt him this last off season. I'd imagine that would have been worth 4 legit prospects from someone. 

 

This year? I think they get 2 legit prospects, one of which is close, one of which is not, and one flyer or maybe two of them....

[gunnarthor]

 

For the Twins, or in general?

 

Frankly, they should have dealt him this last off season. I'd imagine that would have been worth 4 legit prospects from someone. 

 

This year? I think they get 2 legit prospects, one of which is close, one of which is not, and one flyer or maybe two of them....

Sounds about right. 2 of Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero and a low A ball throw in like Blankenhorn? That's 3 top 10ish prospects in our system for one guy. That might be an overpay, actually.  Dunno. Maybe Baltimore could get a huge overpay from the Yankees or Dodgers who can afford it.

 

I'd love to see his bat in our lineup and let Sano move to DH.  Anyhow, we're dreaming, it won't happen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sounds about right. 2 of Gordon/Gonsalves/Romero and a low A ball throw in like Blankenhorn? That's 3 top 10ish prospects in our system for one guy. That might be an overpay, actually.  Dunno. Maybe Baltimore could get a huge overpay from the Yankees or Dodgers who can afford it.

 

I'd love to see his bat in our lineup and let Sano move to DH.  Anyhow, we're dreaming, it won't happen.

 

ya, no way he's coming here. I never even imagined that!

 

And, I think the O's ownership/FO just won't deal him. 

[spinowner]

Today's win by the Yankees has eliminated Tampa Bay from contention for the first wild card berth.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Today's win by the Yankees has eliminated Tampa Bay from contention for the first wild card berth.

 

the humanity!