How Things Shape Up, Sept. 14 edition

[IndianaTwin]

First things first – the White Sox have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Further, the Twins have clinched a better record than the Sox. This is important news, because the first goal in any season is to defeat the White Sox. Then and only then can other playoff implications be considered.

 

But I digress. It was just a two-game series against San Diego, but things look significantly different in the Wild Card chase than they did Sunday evening. The Twins won a pair, and every team they are competing with lost at least one over the last three days, with several of them losing twice. As a result the Twins have jumped to a 63 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs in fivethirtyeight.com’s calculations. On the other side, the Rays, Royals, and Orioles have fallen off the map to 2 percent or less and the Mariners and Rangers check in at 6 percent. The latter is not out of the realm of possibility – it’s basically like getting four straight heads in coin flips. The Angels are hanging on at 23 percent and remain the Twins’ biggest threat.

 

It’s important to remember that those percentages are pretty fluid and can change pretty quickly. After all the other games were done last night, for example, the Angels win jumped them from 16 to 23 percent, dropping the Twins from 67 to 63 percent, for example. Similarly, if the Twins would drop the first two games of the Toronto series and the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers would each win their next two, those numbers would change even more dramatically. Oh wait, those three can’t all win their next two games – they are playing each other. That’s a distinct advantage the Twins have. Teams can’t gain on the Twins just by winning. They need help from other teams beating the Twins. It’s very likely that the Twins will remain in a tight race with someone for the last spot, but it becomes increasingly likely that it won’t be multiple teams they are fighting with. (I gotta say, however, that must be an awfully big hamster running the wheel that powers the machine running 100,000 scenarios in a matter of moments. But I digress.) But the underlying point still stands. These standings and projections could still change pretty quickly if the Twins fill their shorts with skid marks.  

 

Let’s take a look at where the standings shape up now compared to when we arrived home to take on the Fathers.

 

Before:
NYY   +3.5
Min     ---
LAA    -1.0
KC    -2.5
Tex   -2.5
Sea   -3.0
Bal   -3.0
TB      -3.5

 

After:
NYY   +3
Min    ---
LAA    -2.0
Sea   -3.5
KC    -4.0
Tex   -4.0
Bal    -4.5
TB     -5.0

So, we picked up a half game on the Yankees and the Mariners, a game on the Angels, 1.5 games on the Rangers, Orioles, Royals and Rays. And don’t look now, but the Twins are closer to the Yankees than they are to all the others except the Angels. With three games remaining against the Bombers.

 

Next up:
Hou @ LAA today in conclusion of series
Sea @ Tex today in conclusion of series
Tor @ Min (4)
Bal @ NYY (4)
Bos @ TB (3)
KC @ Cle (4)
Sea @ Hou (3)
Tex @ LAA (3)

 

Snapshot
Here’s the snapshot view of the teams in contention, with data from baseball-reference.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Scroll to the end if you need explanatory notes.

YANKEES

• Record: 79-66.
• Games ahead/back: +3.0
• Luck: -9
• 538.com projection: 89-73 (10-7 the rest of the way)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 99%
• Games against good: None.
• Games against middle: Home 11 (Min 3, Bal 4, TB 3, KC 1).
• Games against bad: Home 3 (Tor 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 69-72.
• Summary: They are just on the edge of the divisional race, but they don’t play the team they are chasing (Boston). They are 3 games ahead of the Twins in the race for the first Wild Card and could lose home-field advantage for that game if they would get swept by the Twins next week, but they hold a 5-game lead over the Angels. They also have a significantly easier schedule than the Angels, so the Yankees have reached the point of having a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. They have 14 of their remaining 17 at home, including all 11 against teams that have any hope of the playoffs. Based on all that, it will still be tough for the Twins to catch them unless the Twins sweep them next week.

TWINS

• Record: 76-69.
• Games ahead/back: ---
• Luck: 3.
• 538.com projection: 85-77 (9-8).
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 63%
• Games against good: Road 3 (Cle 3).
• Games against middle: Road 3 (NYY 3).
• Games against bad: Home 7 (Tor 4, Det 3), Road 4 (Det 4).
• Average record for remaining games: 67-72.
• Summary: As summarized above, things keep heading in the Twins favor. They still have the easiest remaining schedule, playing teams that average five games below .500. That includes 11 games against bad teams, with seven of those at home. Going 6-5 in those games and winning at least one each against and Cleveland and New York would make them tough to beat, so a key is to avoid losing more than two in a row.

LA ANGELS

• Record: 74-71.
• Games ahead/back: -2
• Luck: 1
• 538.com projection: 83-79
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 23%
• Games against good: Home 4 (Cle 3, Hou today), Road 3 (Hou 3).
• Games against middle: Home 6 (Sea 3, Tex 3).
• Games against bad: Road 4 (CWS 4).
• Average record for remaining games: 73-66.
• Summary: They are now the only team closer than 3.5 games, so this is where the biggest threat by far comes from. Getting bopped today by Houston would be nice, as would Texas realizing that they need a sweep of the Angels this weekend to stay in the race. Then, the Angels turn around and host the Indians, who we hope will still be on their winning streak. Games like that are what give the Angels nearly the toughest remaining schedule.

 

MARINERS

• Record: 73-73
• Games ahead/back: -3.5
• Luck: 2
• 538.com projection: 81-81 (8-8)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 5%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Cle 3), Road 3 (Hou 3).
• Games against middle: Home 3 (Tex 3), Road 4 (LAA 3, Tex today).
• Games against bad: Road 3 (Oak 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 73-66.
• Summary: They were the only team behind the Twins to win 2 of 3, but they still lost a half-game to Eddie and Friends. Now they have to travel to Houston to play the division leaders. With the toughest remaining schedule, it will be hard for them to go on the long winning streak they need.

ROYALS

• Record: 72-73.
• Games ahead/back: -4.0.
• Luck: 7
• 538.com projection: 80-82 (8-9)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 2%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Ariz 3), Road 4 (Cle 4).
• Games against middle: Road 1 (NYY 1).
• Games against bad: Home 6 (CWS 3, Det 3), Road 3 (Tor 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 68-72.
• Summary: Pythagoras doesn’t like their run differential, but outplaying their PWP is what keeps the Royals and their 2 percent likelihood on the edge of the race. The Royals may saved their shot by getting the last two games against the Twins, but they gave it back by losing two of three since then. (Notice how I didn’t say that the White Sox beat anyone – I just said that the Royals lost two of three to someone.) And now it’s, “Hello, Cleveland. We brought the barbecue sauce -- enjoy feasting on us. Four times.” Not only do they need to win at least two of those, they probably need to return to the table and feast on the 9 remaining games they have with bad teams. That’s more than anyone besides the Twins.

 

RANGERS

• Record: 72-73.
• Games ahead/back: -4.0.
• Luck: -3
• 538.com projection: 81-81 (9-8)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 6%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Hou 3).
• Games against middle: Home 1 (Sea today), Road 6 (LAA 3, Sea 3).
• Games against bad: Home 4 (Oak 4), Road 3 (Oak 3).
• Average record for remaining games: 69-70.
• Summary: The Rangers are another team that lost the opportunity to stay in the race by losing two of three (so far, with a game remaining in the Seattle series.). They do have seven of their remaining games with Oakland, so the possibility of a winning streak exists. On the other hand, they also have three with the Astros and a three-game series with two other teams fighting for their playoff hopes.

ORIOLES

• Record: 72-74.
• Games ahead/back: -4.5
• Luck: 3
• 538.com projection: 80-82 (8-8)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: 2%
• Games against good: Home 3 (Bos 3).
• Games against middle: Home 4 (TB 4), Road 7 (NYY 4, TB 3).
• Games against bad: Road 2 (Pit 2).
• Average record for remaining games: 72-68.
• Summary: Another loser of two of three. Either way this weekend they’ll help the Twins. They will either win a couple games against the Yankees to give the Twins a chance to close the gap ahead of them or lose a couple and further eliminate themselves. Thanks to having played Cleveland last weekend, they’ve lost 5 of their last 6.

RAYS

• Record: 72-75
• Games ahead/back: -5.0
• Luck: 1
• 538.com projection: 79-83 (7-8)
• 538.com playoff likelihood: <1%
• Games against good: Home 5 (Bos 3, Cubs 2).
• Games against middle: Home 3 (Bal 3), Road 7 (Bal 4, NYY 3).
• Games against bad: 0.
• Average record for remaining games: 75-65.
• Summary: Uh, stick a fork in them. Five games remaining against division leaders, seven more games on the road, and six teams to pass. Thus the “less than” sign in their playoff likelihood score.

EXPLANATORY NOTES:

• Team name: Duh.
• Record: Actual won-loss record.
• Games ahead/back: (In the second Wild Card chase).
• Luck: (this compares their Pythagorean record to their actual record, giving a suggestion of whether they are over- or under-performing. A team with a positive number (like the Twins have been for most of the year) has won more games than their runs scored/allowed would suggest).
• 538.com projection: The final projected record based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining season, using starting pitching data, days off, and travel distances. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/.
• 538.com playoff likelihood: Likelihood of making the playoffs based on those simulations.
• Games remaining against “good” teams: I’ve noted how many games remaining the team has against the three “good” teams in the league, which happen to be the three division leaders – Houston, Cleveland, and Boston. Because Boston is leading the division and is well ahead of the Yankees, and because the Yankees are in the Wild-Card chase, I drew the line between Boston and Yankees as the marker between “good” and “middle.”
• Games against “middle” teams: Games remaining against the teams that are in the middle segment of the league (Yankees, Twins, Angels, Texas, Baltimore, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City).
• Games against the “bad” teams: Games against the teams that have struggled (Toronto, Detroit, Oakland, White Sox).
  • (Note: There are a few remaining interleague games which are added into the groupings.)
• Average record for remaining games: A quantifiable measure of their remaining strength of schedule, this is the average current record for their remaining opponents.
• Summary: My comments.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We're getting to the point where it's a race between the Twins vs. Yankees and Twins vs. Angels.

 

And the Twins vs. Yankees race exists only because they have a head-to-head series remaining.

 

I expect everyone except the Angels to effectively be out of the race after the Toronto series, provided the Twins do their job and either split or take three of four (which could borderline eliminate the Angels if Houston steps up).

[Mike Sixel]

I still see TX as next most likely after LAA, but ya, it does seem to be coming down to that team

 

and, again, great write up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I still see TX as next most likely after LAA, but ya, it does seem to be coming down to that team

 

and, again, great write up.

If Texas stays in the race, they likely eliminate the Angels from the race (three game set starting tomorrow night).

 

Which is why it's good that the Twins are fighting with three AL West teams down the stretch. The most likely outcome is that those three teams just beat up on each other and the Twins either hold their lead or gain a game or two.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If Texas stays in the race, they likely eliminate the Angels from the race (three game set starting tomorrow night).

 

Which is why it's good that the Twins are fighting with three AL West teams down the stretch. The most likely outcome is that those three teams just beat up on each other and the Twins either hold their lead or gain a game or two.

 

right. I think one of them eliminates the other in a hot run....best is they just keep splitting with each other.

[IndianaTwin]

 

right. I think one of them eliminates the other in a hot run....best is they just keep splitting with each other.

 

Best is the Twins win 17 straight. I've heard of teams doing that. 

[USAFChief]

Indiana Twin:  Thanks for putting these together.  A lot of work and a good read!

[Don Walcott]

Love the write-up.

 

I'd also love to see the Twins go to New York and take 2 or 3. I'm sure there are no statistics to back this up, but it would be like a "statement" series where we could show the Yankees that we aren't intimidated, and that, right now, we're better than they are.

[WLFINN]

 "But the underlying point still stands. These standings and projections could still change pretty quickly if the Twins fill their shorts with skid marks.  "

 

 

 

you win quote of the day

 

 

[Don Walcott]

The other good news is that at least for the next week or so, the Astros and Indians will be trying to secure the top seed in the playoffs. I suspect the Indians will wrap that up by next weekend, but not before beating up on the Angels next week.

[walt-o-meal]

 

Best is the Twins win 17 straight. I've heard of teams doing that. 

How about 17 straight, and 29 out of 33.

[spinowner]

One thing to add about Baltimore and Tampa Bay: They have 7 games remaining against each other. To have any hope at all each team pretty much has to sweep the other. If they split 4-3 or 5-2 they basically knock each other out.

[Blake]

 

One thing to add about Baltimore and Tampa Bay: They have 7 games remaining against each other. To have any hope at all each team pretty much has to sweep the other. If they split 4-3 or 5-2 they basically knock each other out.

It truly is amazing how much the late season schedule can impact playoff prospects.