Article: The Funk And The Fix For Jorge Polanco

[Doomtints]

 

So sure you want elite at every position and should strive for it. I don't think Polanco should be given infinite chances and there should be very clear backup plans in spring training next year. And at the very least, he can be a utility guy while he is still pre-arb.

 

But he was league average as recently as last year. I'm not sure that is so farfetched, and would allow resources to go to plugging more gaping holes in the interim.

 

I don't think anyone is advocating for "infinite chances."  

 

If the Twins are going to be thinking about "backup plans" for Polanco already, they're daft. He deserves another full year, minimum. 

I think we are seeing confirmation bias going on. Some people disliked Polanco before this season and are thus going into "I told you so" mode, rather than letting the kid learn the ropes of major league baseball. These are the same conversations we had about Brian Dozier a few years ago.

[USAFChief]

I don't think anyone is advocating for "infinite chances."

 

If the Twins are going to be thinking about "backup plans" for Polanco already, they're daft. He deserves another full year, minimum.

 

I think we are seeing confirmation bias going on. Some people disliked Polanco before this season and are thus going into "I told you so" mode, rather than letting the kid learn the ropes of major league baseball. These are the same conversations we had about Brian Dozier a few years ago.

Also same conversations about Luis Rivas, Danny Santana, etc etc. Guys who "just need time" to become quality major leaguers, and who got way too many opportunities here, and then faded from baseball.

[Doomtints]

 

Also same conversations about Luis Rivas, Danny Santana, etc etc. Guys who "just need time" to become quality major leaguers, and who got way too many opportunities here, and then faded from baseball.

 

Again, no one is advocating for infinite chances. 

Edited August 8, 2017 by Doomtints

[yarnivek1972]

There was clearly something different about Polanco's approach.  

 

In April and May he struck out about once every 8 at bats.  That's a bit better than his career rate of once every 6 at bats.  That's the kind of progression one would expect as a player gets more experience.  But in June and July, he struck out out once every 4.6 at bats.  That's Sano range, actually, it's still better than Sano. But Polanco doesn't have Sano power.  So far in August, 1 K in 17 at bats.

 

So, the long and the short of it is that Polanco appears to be back in his game.  His game is contact with occasional gap power.  He doesn't walk much, but he also usually doesn't strike out much.  His ceiling is probably an OPS in the low .700 range if he develops a little more power.  More likely .680 to .700.  That's just who he is.  Is he a replacement level player?  Yep.  But that's the reality of mid market teams.  The Twins are never going to field a roster full of All Stars.  

 

Sometimes, someone who is "good enough" will have to be good enough until the organization develops a better, cheaper, option.  Right now, Polanco is cheap.  And if he posts an OPS+ in the upper 90s to low 100s, that will probably keep him in the lineup if he plays good enough defense.  Right now the jury is still out in that regard.  As with his hitting, he seemed fine in April and May and really stunk it up in June and July. The "eye" test tells me that early his issues were throwing.  In June and July, he had problems getting the glove on the ball.  That's a concentration issue. Take note of what his numbers are now and see if they improve by the end of the year.  Right now, he has a UZR/150 of -1.2.  That's not good, but it is substantially better than the -32.3 he posted last year.  For the most part, based on "inside edge" fielding stats, he's making most of the plays he should be.  His biggest area for improvement is in the "Likely (60-90%)" area.  He's making 67% of those plays.  Like to see that at about 80% or better IMO.

 

FWIW, Escobar is a -.2 UZR/150 at SS in 2017 (SSS of course), after posting a -11.8 last year.  IMO, Escobar would be a better fit in the NL, where the bench is a little longer.  He's good enough to start semi-regularly, but will be exposed if he were to play 140 games a year.  And of course, he would be a good bat off the bench and a good guy to use for a double switch.  In the AL where the norm is 3-4 man bench, the opportunities to pinch hit or platoon just aren't there like they were 20 years ago.

 

Again SSS, Adrianza has a 3.5 UZR/150 at SS in 2017.  Adrianza kinda strikes me as an older, albeit less experienced version of Polanco.  Substantially better defensively though.  My gut tells me he isn't cut out to start 130, 140 games a year.  Ideally suited to be a more "traditional" reserve though.

[drjim]

Up to 500/545/750 in August. I see no reason he can't keep this pace up for the rest of the year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Escobar doesn't have a contract for 2018. He isn't eligible for FA, but it seems unlikely that the Twins will pay what he will get in arbitration if the plan is for him to be a reserve. As a reserve, Adrianza is more than capable and Vielma is more than capable as a second reserve. So, Escobar will likely be tapped to be the starter at SS next year or be non-tendered.

Escobar is on track to post another 1.5 fWAR partial season. Pay the man, even if you don't "need" him. He's an asset.

 

If he turns out to be superfluous on the roster, then trade him. You won't get much but he'll bring back a #20-30 org prospect from a team who needs a competent utility guy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Escobar is on track to post another 1.5 fWAR partial season. Pay the man, even if you don't "need" him. He's an asset.

 

If he turns out to be superfluous on the roster, then trade him. You won't get much but he'll bring back a #20-30 org prospect from a team who needs a competent utility guy.

 

this, I mean, who plays 3B when Sano doesn't for 15-20 games next year if not him?

[yarnivek1972]

 

this, I mean, who plays 3B when Sano doesn't for 15-20 games next year if not him?

Maybe Garver should be giving third base a try down in AAA.

 

It's certainly a fair question.  Sano has started 73 games at 3b this year so far.  Twins have played 111.  So, the Twins need option B for like 40-50 games.  Maybe more.  I'm not sure the answer should be Escobar.  He's subpar anywhere he plays defensively.  He occasionally makes up for it with the bat, but I personally believe he's hitting a little over his head this year at least as far as HR go.  Prior to 2017, he had 27 career HR in 1500 at bats, one every 56 at bats.  This year, 10 in 227.  That's really the only thing that is different about Escobar's numbers in 2017.  HR power, seemingly out of nowhere.  If this were 15 years ago there would be more than whispers.  But that's also the only real value Escobar has.  He has been, at least this year, a HR threat.  If that goes away, so does Escobar's value.

 

Personally, I'd rather have the superior defender.  That's Adrianza.  In a walk.

[Brandon Warne]

I see no reason you can't have a bench of Garver-Adrianza-Escobar-Granite next year. Polanco starts at short, and you have insurance at every spot. 

[yarnivek1972]

I see no reason you can't have a bench of Garver-Adrianza-Escobar-Granite next year. Polanco starts at short, and you have insurance at every spot.

I'd be curious to know who your starters are in that scenario. More specifically would Grossman be the DH?

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd be curious to know who your starters are in that scenario. More specifically would Grossman be the DH?

 

Frankly I might move Robbie and sign J.D. Martinez. 

[drjim]

 

I see no reason you can't have a bench of Garver-Adrianza-Escobar-Granite next year. Polanco starts at short, and you have insurance at every spot. 

 

I'd be curious to know who your starters are in that scenario. More specifically would Grossman be the DH?

 

If Grossman is the DH, they would want someone on the bench who can play 1b, preferably with a better bat than Garver.

[Brandon Warne]

 

If Grossman is the DH, they would want someone on the bench who can play 1b, preferably with a better bat than Garver.

 

If Mauer's going to play most of the time, Garver makes sense as a platoon option off the bench. Kepler can play first, too.

[drjim]

 

If Mauer's going to play most of the time, Garver makes sense as a platoon option off the bench. Kepler can play first, too.

 

But Garver would ideally catch against lefties, making him a poor platoon partner for Mauer. I would hope for a RH hitter.

 

But this all leads to why Granite is not the ideal bench OF, despite his profile, they would be better off with a RH hitter.

[Brandon Warne]

 

But Garver would ideally catch against lefties, making him a poor platoon partner for Mauer. I would hope for a RH hitter.

 

But this all leads to why Granite is not the ideal bench OF, despite his profile, they would be better off with a RH hitter.

 

Keep Grossman as the fourth and trade Granite, then. You have three starting OF who can all play CF so it really isn't a bench necessity.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keep Grossman as the fourth and trade Granite, then. You have three starting OF who can all play CF so it really isn't a bench necessity.

 

except Grossman can't really hit. Walks are better than outs, but they aren't as good as hits. He's not good either.

[Brandon Warne]

 

except Grossman can't really hit. Walks are better than outs, but they aren't as good as hits. He's not good either.

 

The idea that he only walks is misguided. He's hitting .245/.372/.371 -- a 106 wRC+. It's not ideal, but I'd prefer high OBP, lower SLG than the alternative (Kennys Vargas, most likely). As a fourth outfielder, it's fine.

[Jham]

The idea that he only walks is misguided. He's hitting .245/.372/.371 -- a 106 wRC+. It's not ideal, but I'd prefer high OBP, lower SLG than the alternative (Kennys Vargas, most likely). As a fourth outfielder, it's fine.

Which raises the question, why combine the stats in the first place? They don't habe equal impact on offense or predicted runs... which raises another question, what does any of this have to do with Polanco's funk? I skipped to the end of the thread. Polanco needs to keep swinging hard. He got tentative for a little while.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Which raises the question, why combine the stats in the first place? They don't habe equal impact on offense or predicted runs... which raises another question, what does any of this have to do with Polanco's funk? I skipped to the end of the thread. Polanco needs to keep swinging hard. He got tentative for a little while.

 

I don't think anyone knows what put Polanco in the spell. He's out of it. Case closed.