BA Midseason Top 100

[Joe A. Preusser]

Great discussion here. I see validity in both sides.

 

I agree that the value in high draft picks is high end impact, not average WAR. But I also feel there is more than one way to achieve high end impact. History might be against Stewart becoming an impact starter (still debatable) but if he converts to an all-star closer that's still high end impact. I would never call Perkins a bust, closers of his caliber don't grow on trees and aren't cheap. The track record for "failed" high pick starters that become dominant relievers has been fairly well established across baseball. Give Kohl a couple more years (or three, or four) to see where his career arc takes him before passing sentence on him. Sometimes those assessments become self-fulfilling prophecies, so why jump to them?

[mikelink45]

I am more interested in seeing our minor leaguers develop into Twins than make the list.  If Gonsalves and Romero are as good as we seem to think they are I want them on the major league roster soon.  It is the call up list that gets me going because I really do not know anything about the other teams minor league players so the list has little meaning for me.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Calling Stewart's chances almost zero after he's come off injury as an underage AA starter and put three decent starts together, the last one a 6 inning 1BB/6K 3H 1R outing? That lacks credibility, and therefore makes me suspicious that the commenter isn't terribly interested in seeing the other side of the coin.

I think this is giving Stewart's most recent modest start too much weight. It's not that he hasn't kept runs off the board for multiple starts before, or even struck out 6 batters in a game before, but he generally sprinkles those games in among 1-3 K games. Until he has a run of these 6+ K starts, or a 10 K start or something, we're still at the same place with him.

 

If the day after Ben Revere hit a minor league HR, someone said his ceiling was still 4th outfielder / fringe starter, you wouldn't say that opinion lacks credibility. Actually taking a small amount of unexceptional performance to mean anything significant in the larger picture is probably better described as lacking credibility, no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

And coming to your defense a bit... This was a high reach type of pick. For a football-first kid with minimal IPs under his belt, of whom the Twins KNEW going in was destined to take a lot longer to develop.

Not to rehash old debates, but I remember reading how advanced his slider was, and I remember even one prospect analyst thought Stewart would have the quickest path to the majors in that draft class.

 

Not that he was going to rush to MLB, but I'm not sure anyone gets picked that high with the expectation that he will take exceptionally long to develop.

[gunnarthor]

I think our view of Stewart is too much influenced by where he was drafted. If he was drafted in the 4th round and Gonsalves was drafted in the first, would we have the same level of angst? He's made 9 AA starts and has struggled with control, walking more than he has struck out. That's not great but it's still only 9 starts. He's still young for AA. He still throws mid 90s. He did make a top 100 entering the season. 

 

Sickels wrote about ignoring draft positioning a few years back. It's a worthwhile read.  https://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/12/16/5216130/christian-colon-and-the-psychology-of-player-analysis

 

Obviously top 5 picks in the draft are really important because they are more likely to give us Mauer-like players but I think we're focusing too much on that outcome. Even for top picks, solid non-all-star careers are great returns.  Jameson Taillon, Christian Colon, Drew Pomeranz, Barrett Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields, Karsten Whitson, Michael Choice - those are 8 of the first 10 picks in the 2010 draft. Drafting and developing guys is hard. Right now both Stewart and Jay's ceiling has been significantly lowered in most people's eyes. And that lowering, I think, has put too much of a negative spin on them. (Although season ending injuries are terrifying).  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Stewart has 25 starts at AA, with as many walks (69) as strikeouts (70), and a 4.7 K/9. This was after 41 starts at A/A+ with below league average K rates too. (He did hit league average in 9 starts repeating A+ last year.)

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't take issue with his diminished projection. I take issue with a blunt declaration that he's a bust. I don't have a personal opinion about the odds of a turnaround, and am open to arguments either way about the precedent for that if they're supported intelligently. Calling Stewart's chances almost zero after he's come off injury as an underage AA starter and put three decent starts together, the last one a 6 inning 1BB/6K 3H 1R outing? That lacks credibility, and therefore makes me suspicious that the commenter isn't terribly interested in seeing the other side of the coin.

 

I think it lacks credibility to focus on one pretty good start instead of years of track record. I did some analysis a while back of minor league pitchers with really low strikeout rates, and basically I couldn't find a single one that succeeded in the Majors in the past 20 years. You can feel free to find me one example that would show a path forward for Stewart.

 

The simple reality is that guys who don't fool minor leaguers get crushed by big leaguers. Whether you want to accept that or not is up to you. I personally would like to see every Twins' prospect succeed, but the facts are what they are and I don't see any value in pretending otherwise.

[gunnarthor]

 

Stewart has 25 starts at AA, with as many walks (69) as strikeouts (70), and a 4.7 K/9. This was after 41 starts at A/A+ with below league average K rates too. (He did hit league average in 9 starts repeating A+ last year.)

Yes, I should have said 9 starts this year. 14 last year.  Not sure that changes it that much. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes, I should have said 9 starts this year. 14 last year. Not sure that changes it that much.

If it was just the 9 starts this year, you could call it an adjustment period, point to the injury, etc. But he's repeating AA, and this has been his performance pattern for 4 years running now.

[bird]

 

I think this is giving Stewart's most recent modest start too much weight. It's not that he hasn't kept runs off the board for multiple starts before, or even struck out 6 batters in a game before, but he generally sprinkles those games in among 1-3 K games. Until he has a run of these 6+ K starts, or a 10 K start or something, we're still at the same place with him.

If the day after Ben Revere hit a minor league HR, someone said his ceiling was still 4th outfielder / fringe starter, you wouldn't say that opinion lacks credibility. Actually taking a small amount of unexceptional performance to mean anything significant in the larger picture is probably better described as lacking credibility, no?

 

 

Giving him slightly better than a close to zero chance and saying it's too early to call him a bust is not putting too much weight on either his past performance or his most recent starts.

[Steve Lein]

 

I am more interested in seeing our minor leaguers develop into Twins than make the list.  If Gonsalves and Romero are as good as we seem to think they are I want them on the major league roster soon.  It is the call up list that gets me going because I really do not know anything about the other teams minor league players so the list has little meaning for me.

 

You might like my approach to the Top Prospect list season, then :http://twinsdaily.com/blog/15/entry-8811-the-next-twins-2017/

 

I've hit Justin Haley (that's a gimme), Zack Granite, Randy Rosario, and Trevor Hildenberger so far this year. I'm still expecting to get glimpses at Gonsalves, Romero, Vielma, and Reed.

 

I previewed every single player that started the year with the Twins and made their debut last year in my 2016 list.

 

Jason Wheeler, Felix Jorge, and Alan Busenitz have also debuted for the Twins so far this season. (I think that's all of them?)

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Not to rehash old debates, but I remember reading how advanced his slider was, and I remember even one prospect analyst thought Stewart would have the quickest path to the majors in that draft class.

Not that he was going to rush to MLB, but I'm not sure anyone gets picked that high with the expectation that he will take exceptionally long to develop.

Scouts can't get it right everytime but alot were wrong about Kohl.  Either that or Minnesota's pitching developmental program needs overhauled extensively.  Here's what BA said about Kohl before he was drafted.
 

 

 

Scouts love the 6-foot-3, 190-pounder's arsenal, athleticism and competitiveness. They say that he has better present stuff than Jameson Taillon did when the Pirates took the suburban Houston righthander No. 2 overall in 2010. Stewart has boosted his fastball from 88-93 mph last summer to 91-96 for much of the spring, though his velocity tails off at times in the later innings. His life and command with his heater make it even more dominating, but his best offering is a power mid-80s slider with tilt. He has improved his curveball and shows feel for his changeup, and he'll display four above-average big league pitches at times. He has a clean delivery and should get even better once he concentrates solely on baseball.

 

After the 2013 season:

Strong and athletic, with a clean delivery, Stewart has a fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96 with plus life and command. His putaway pitch is a mid-80s power slider with tilt. His curveball continues to improve and he has a feel for a changeup, giving him a chance to have four above-average pitches. He has competitive fire and some swagger, not unlike that of another Houston-area schoolboy pitching hero, Josh Beckett. Considering their investment in Stewart, the Twins will proceed cautiously. With his limited innings total he could start the year in extended spring training and return to the Appalachian League. If his shoulder issues are behind him, low Class A Cedar Rapids could be the call. His best-case scenario is as a No. 1 or 2 starter in the majors.

 

After the 2016 season:

Stewart battled second-half shoulder soreness his first two seasons and elbow inflammation in his third. Aside from a brief bout with biceps tendinitis, he shouldered a full workload in 2016. Drafted for his power stuff, Stewart has missed fewer bats than expected. His strikeout rate rose a tick from a subpar 4.9 per nine a year ago, but it still remained a curiously low 5.7 per nine in 2016. Stewart is behind other pitchers his age due to his football background, and the Twins believe his strikeout rate will improve as he learns sequencing and improves the command of his full arsenal. Stewart can touch 96 mph with his four-seamer, but he leans more on his 91-92 two-seamer. He throws a hard slider, up to 87-88 mph, a power 12-to-6 curveball and the occasional changeup. His above-average slider is the best of the mix, but it produces more weak contact than swings and misses. Stewart's next step is Triple-A Rochester, and 2017 could be a big season for him as he tries to establish his identity as a pitcher. He has a No. 3 starter ceiling

[Taildragger8791]

 

Scouts can't get it right everytime but alot were wrong about Kohl.  Either that or Minnesota's pitching developmental program needs overhauled extensively.  Here's what BA said about Kohl before he was drafted.
 

 

 

 

After the 2013 season:

Strong and athletic, with a clean delivery, Stewart has a fastball that sits at 92-94 mph and touches 96 with plus life and command. His putaway pitch is a mid-80s power slider with tilt. His curveball continues to improve and he has a feel for a changeup, giving him a chance to have four above-average pitches. He has competitive fire and some swagger, not unlike that of another Houston-area schoolboy pitching hero, Josh Beckett. Considering their investment in Stewart, the Twins will proceed cautiously. With his limited innings total he could start the year in extended spring training and return to the Appalachian League. If his shoulder issues are behind him, low Class A Cedar Rapids could be the call. His best-case scenario is as a No. 1 or 2 starter in the majors.

 

After the 2016 season:

Stewart battled second-half shoulder soreness his first two seasons and elbow inflammation in his third. Aside from a brief bout with biceps tendinitis, he shouldered a full workload in 2016. Drafted for his power stuff, Stewart has missed fewer bats than expected. His strikeout rate rose a tick from a subpar 4.9 per nine a year ago, but it still remained a curiously low 5.7 per nine in 2016. Stewart is behind other pitchers his age due to his football background, and the Twins believe his strikeout rate will improve as he learns sequencing and improves the command of his full arsenal. Stewart can touch 96 mph with his four-seamer, but he leans more on his 91-92 two-seamer. He throws a hard slider, up to 87-88 mph, a power 12-to-6 curveball and the occasional changeup. His above-average slider is the best of the mix, but it produces more weak contact than swings and misses. Stewart's next step is Triple-A Rochester, and 2017 could be a big season for him as he tries to establish his identity as a pitcher. He has a No. 3 starter ceiling

 

So he can throw a mid 90's fastball but mostly throws a low 90's 2-seamer instead. I'm guessing because he feels it's tougher to square up even though it's easier to make weak contact on? And then he throws a high 80's slider that isn't swing-and-miss. So only a 5 mph speed differential on his two favorite pitches, while the changeup is mostly a "show me" pitch. The curveball is rated above average too though. Does he throw it for strikes? You'd expect that to generate more whiffs unless guys know they can spit on it and look for something in the zone to hit.

[Guest]

Great discussion here. I see validity in both sides.

I agree that the value in high draft picks is high end impact, not average WAR. But I also feel there is more than one way to achieve high end impact. History might be against Stewart becoming an impact starter (still debatable) but if he converts to an all-star closer that's still high end impact. I would never call Perkins a bust, closers of his caliber don't grow on trees and aren't cheap. The track record for "failed" high pick starters that become dominant relievers has been fairly well established across baseball. Give Kohl a couple more years (or three, or four) to see where his career arc takes him before passing sentence on him. Sometimes those assessments become self-fulfilling prophecies, so why jump to them?

Stewart has been disappointing, but he's waaaaayyyy too young to be called a bust. His physical skills are still there and he may be young enough to benefit from the changing of the Twins Way. He could still wash out, but don't get shocked if he rockets next year.

 

Also, for whatever it's worth, here are the #4 picks immediately preceding Stewart, in reverse chronological order. It's not exactly an All Star team. Lots of Orioles and Pirates disappointments.

 

Kevin Gausman

Dylan Bundy

Christian Colon

Tony Sanchez

Brian Matusz

Daniel Moskos

Brad Lincoln

Ryan Zimmerman (2005)

Jeff Niemann

Tim Stauffer

Adam Loewen

Gavin Floyd (2001)

Mike Stodolka

[Steve Lein]

 

So he can throw a mid 90's fastball but mostly throws a low 90's 2-seamer instead. I'm guessing because he feels it's tougher to square up even though it's easier to make weak contact on? And then he throws a high 80's slider that isn't swing-and-miss. So only a 5 mph speed differential on his two favorite pitches, while the changeup is mostly a "show me" pitch. The curveball is rated above average too though. Does he throw it for strikes? You'd expect that to generate more whiffs unless guys know they can spit on it and look for something in the zone to hit.

 

I've seen mention a few times this year that the slider is now more of a cutter. This information seems to further support that idea. Wonder if something specific with the "tilt" slider was a contributing factor for shoulder issues.

 

I've also written several times here about how diabetes affects joints, specifically shoulders (my throwing shoulder doesn't have many bullets in it when I play catch these days because of it), but I don't think a pro should have a huge issue there.

[Tomj14]

 

I understand your point here. To me though, a more misleading part of a discussion of hits and misses is ignoring or excluding the odds you mention. I have no problem if someone wants to define a bust as something different than the average historical WAR for the slot if they present things in context, because otherwise, it tells us absolutely nothing. If someone wants to declare that Kohl Stewart has already busted, then at least apply your personal standard across the board and mention that of the first 39 selections made in the first and supplemental rounds of that 2013 I

I think people are calling Steward a bust because he was drafted 4 years ago and is no where near the majors and has been passed on the Twins prospect list by many others. (and for a high pick can't seem to strike out anybody) I also believe most hope he eventually figures something out and makes a contribution to the big league team. 

As for Jay I think most were disappointed by the pick of a college relief pitcher that high and are not surprised he didn't covert well to a starter and if you take a college relief pitcher that high it shouldn't take long for him to be up on the big league team, but again that's just my opinion.

[nicksaviking]

I agree that labeling Stewart a bust is premature due to his age and the fact that he's still not using options.

 

However assuming that he does make it to the majors, it looks like he's surely going to be a high contact sinkerballer akin to Blackburn and Gibson so even if not a bust, he's not someone I'm really going to look forward to taking up a rotation spot. I've personally moved on.

 

But it was still the right pick knowing what everyone knew back then. He was number #4 on pretty much everyone's board, mine included.

[gunnarthor]

 

If it was just the 9 starts this year, you could call it an adjustment period, point to the injury, etc. But he's repeating AA, and this has been his performance pattern for 4 years running now.

Maybe. But after last years handful of AA starts we saw decent numbers despite low k-totals and enough for Klaw to still rank him a top 100 prospect.  

[snap4birds]

Man, looking at the first round of that 2013 draft, maybe the best pick would have been to not sign Stewart, and they they would have received the 5th pick in the 2014 draft.  (I think that's how it works, anyway.)  They would have then had the 5th & 6th picks in 2014.  Probably a good strategy if you can tell beforehand that a draft is extraordinarily weak.

[Mr. Brooks]

Stewart can still make it in the same sense that any milb player could still make it.

I don't care if he puts up a 0.00 ERA. With his k rates he's never going to translate to mlb ball. And, he's never shown any ability for even modest strikeout rates at any point in his milb career.

I was for the pick, i was wrong, it happens.

I think some people automatically assume that when you call a guy like Stewart a bust you are ripping the Twins, so they get overly defensive. That doesn't have to be the case though. This pick made sense, just hasn't worked out at this point, and is a long shot to ever work out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stewart can still make it in the same sense that any milb player could still make it.
I don't care if he puts up a 0.00 ERA. With his k rates he's never going to translate to mlb ball. And, he's never shown any ability for even modest strikeout rates at any point in his milb career.
I was for the pick, i was wrong, it happens.
I think some people automatically assume that when you call a guy like Stewart a bust you are ripping the Twins, so they get overly defensive. That doesn't have to be the case though. This pick made sense, just hasn't worked out at this point, and is a long shot to ever work out.

 

Agreed, saying any player is a bust is not necessarily a rip on the Twins. But many people have a hard time with that.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Stewart can still make it in the same sense that any milb player could still make it.

I don't care if he puts up a 0.00 ERA. With his k rates he's never going to translate to mlb ball. And, he's never shown any ability for even modest strikeout rates at any point in his milb career.

I was for the pick, i was wrong, it happens.

I think some people automatically assume that when you call a guy like Stewart a bust you are ripping the Twins, so they get overly defensive. That doesn't have to be the case though. This pick made sense, just hasn't worked out at this point, and is a long shot to ever work out.

Your point is a very good one, no need to get defensive on the Twins behalf (although that can be difficult with thread topics dissecting every player to ever leave the Twins and find success...). However, I do not believe that strikeout rates are 100% predictive of MLB success. I'm sure there's a correlation but there must be exceptions. Furthermore, i bet most of those exceptions have multiple strong\high velo pitches like Stewart does.

[Mr. Brooks]

Your point is a very good one, no need to get defensive on the Twins behalf (although that can be difficult with thread topics dissecting every player to ever leave the Twins and find success...). However, I do not believe that strikeout rates are 100% predictive of MLB success. I'm sure there's a correlation but there must be exceptions. Furthermore, i bet most of those exceptions have multiple strong\high velo pitches like Stewart does.

Sure, there are always exceptions, and that is why I say he has little chance and not zero chance.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Sure, there are always exceptions, and that is why I say he has little chance and not zero chance.

Sounds like semantics to me. Anything assuming he has less than a 50% chance to be an impact big leaguer is premature. Strikeouts are sexy but not the only way to success.

[Mike Sixel]

Sounds like semantics to me. Anything assuming he has less than a 50% chance to be an impact big leaguer is premature. Strikeouts are sexy but not the only way to success.

Every minor league player, almost, has a less than 50 percent chance to be an impact player...

[Mr. Brooks]

Sounds like semantics to me. Anything assuming he has less than a 50% chance to be an impact big leaguer is premature. Strikeouts are sexy but not the only way to success.

Not the only way to success, but a complete lack of ability to miss bats in AA is a red flag that he likely doesn't have what it takes to get out mlb hitters.

It's not like he is a control artist who doesn't walk anyone, I'd give him more of a chance if he was.

Even guys that had modest success without strikeouts, like Nick Blackburn or Mike Pelfrey still had better k rates in AA.

The only guy I can find off the top of my head with comparable k rates is Carlos Silva, but he still had a k/bb approaching 4:1 because he didn't walk anyone in AA.

If he can drastically cut down his walk rate he could make it as a Blackburn/Silva type #5.

Even the most ardent supporters of Stewart wouldn't give him a greater than 50% chance of becoming an impact player, so I guess we're all jumping the gun at this point.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Not the only way to success, but a complete lack of ability to miss bats in AA is a red flag that he likely doesn't have what it takes to get out mlb hitters.

It's not like he is a control artist who doesn't walk anyone, I'd give him more of a chance if he was.

Even guys that had modest success without strikeouts, like Nick Blackburn or Mike Pelfrey still had better k rates in AA.

The only guy I can find off the top of my head with comparable k rates is Carlos Silva, but he still had a k/bb approaching 4:1 because he didn't walk anyone in AA.

If he can drastically cut down his walk rate he could make it as a Blackburn/Silva type #5.

Even the most ardent supporters of Stewart wouldn't give him a greater than 50% chance of becoming an impact player, so I guess we're all jumping the gun at this point.

None of Blackburne, Silva, and even Gibson had/have as good of stuff as Stewart. At the very least he has the pitches to be an impact closer. But I'm not giving up on him as a starter.

[bird]

 

I think it lacks credibility to focus on one pretty good start instead of years of track record. I did some analysis a while back of minor league pitchers with really low strikeout rates, and basically I couldn't find a single one that succeeded in the Majors in the past 20 years. You can feel free to find me one example that would show a path forward for Stewart.

 

The simple reality is that guys who don't fool minor leaguers get crushed by big leaguers. Whether you want to accept that or not is up to you. I personally would like to see every Twins' prospect succeed, but the facts are what they are and I don't see any value in pretending otherwise.

 

 

I defer to you and others who have an opinion about any player's prospects for success. I don't have a personal opinion about the likely success of any of our prospects, Stewart included. Again, I just think it's ridiculous to declare any prospect a bust when they fit a profile such as Stewart's or Jay's. I question how reasonable it is to say a prospect has a close to zero chance when they're still taking the mound in AA and producing what Stewart in this case is producing. I'll leave it to some of the rest of you to conclude a bunch of things from the numbers. But as I said, the odds may be long, I don't know, but a zero chance? Come on. 

[bird]

 

I'm probably one of those guys some of you think is overly defensive at times. I don't think I am. I do push back, a lot, about a fairly specific set of conclusions people tend to reach when we discuss talent evaluation in particular.

 

Example #1 would be a draft result that doesn't meet with the commenter's expectation where much more often than occasionally, and let's be honest about this, it's accompanied by a conclusion that the bad result is a function of a poor judgment by incompetent people who need to be replaced, etc. In this thread alone, I'm sure we have a few, myself included, who think the Tyler Jay pick was good judgment, others who think it was a defensible decision but they would have gone in a different direction, and many who have reached the conclusion that Jay was simply a bad pick under a bad GM.  Some times it's just a real challenge, but I've spent enough time examining these past drafts to develop a strong opinion that even a really good decision, like Gibson's selection for example, occasionally renders a result that isn't what we want. And every team makes what certainly looks to be a bad decision more often than their fan base likes. It's not always an indicator of some big problem, frankly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sounds like semantics to me. Anything assuming he has less than a 50% chance to be an impact big leaguer is premature. Strikeouts are sexy but not the only way to success.

Setting aside whether 50% is the right number to choose here, if you believe Stewart has a X% chance of still becoming an impact big leaguer, then you should find X% of actual impact big leaguers somewhat followed Stewart's career path so far. But almost none have. Porcello was a low-K guy, although he debuted at 20 and wasn't really an impact player until much later, after adding strikeouts to his arsenal. Some stars were late bloomers but even they still missed more minor league bats before blooming. With

Stewart's K rates, you mostly you get Nick Blackburn comps at best.