BA Midseason Top 100

[drjim]

Posted today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/?amphtml=1

 

Gordon is #19

Lewis is #39 (behind Greene and Gore)

 

Still think Javier could sneak.in by the end of the year, otherwise this is probably it.

[Vanimal46]

Happy for Gordon. I'm still on the line of thought that this off-season would be the perfect time to sell high on him. But that's for another thread. 

[Mike Sixel]

Two top 100 guys is not stellar given how high they have picked. But I am a big Gordon fan.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I would more expect that Jermaine Palacios might make the list than Wander Javier.

I am really excited about how he's playing.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Braves have 9 players on the list. Amazing.

Apparently they are better at drafting than we are.

[drjim]

The Braves have 9 players on the list. Amazing.

Apparently they are better at drafting than we are.

Lots of trades too. They went (almost) all in on their rebuild in a way Ryan never did.

[jimmer]

 

Two top 100 guys is not stellar given how high they have picked. But I am a big Gordon fan.

yet unsurprising...

[drjim]

I would more expect that Jermaine Palacios might make the list than Wander Javier.

I am really excited about how he's playing.

Palacios likely won't get national love untip he hits well in AA.

 

Javier has pedigree and tools, if he puts up enough numbers he'll be ranked accordingly.

[twinsfanstreif]

Two top 100 guys is not stellar given how high they have picked. But I am a big Gordon fan.

Well considering that we graduated our first two picks from 2012 that leaves the 5 most recent drafts. 2 of our top picks from those years are on the list. 1 of them (Kirilloff) was not that high of a pick at pick number 15 and would be on this list if it weren't for TJ surgery. That leaves 2 busts in Jay and Stewart. Both could be useful players down the road but Stewart has struggled to develop and Jay has been injured a bunch. We all knew Stewart was a risk the moment we drafted him but it was a risk the Twins had never taken before and I still applaud the decision, he was not a reach by any means and that draft is looking to be historically bad at the moment. That brings us to Jay, I hated the pick at the time because developing college relievers into MLB starters has rarely ever worked and the same applies here. We all could say we should've drafted Benintendi but he was not on most people's radar as we needed pitching (another reason to not draft for need). To be honest I wanted Aiken or Fulmer and neither of them have looked great either. the rest of that first round other than Buehler who was picked at the end of the first has not been that stellar. All of that to say it's not really "how high we picked" it has more to do with Our top prospects graduating, We have not had many mid round hits, and we haven't made many trades for prospects outside of Mejia (who has already graduated from prospect status). I will also say that this list is undervaluing Gonsalves and Romero who should be on there

[dbminn]

Gonsalves needs to be on the list. He's struck out 30% of all batters he's faced in AA, his BB/9 are less than 2 this year and his career MiLB ERA is 2.19. He's making AA look easy and he's still just 22 years old. But as long as he doesn't throw 97 mph, he won't be ranked.

[gunnarthor]

I think BA was the lowest on the Twins at the start of the season. I imagine a few of the other midseason updates will include Gonsalves and maybe Romero.  

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the rankings right now. As the other poster noted, a lot of it has to do with Stewart and Jay but the young players taken last year and this year won't be on these lists right away but I suspect the 2016 and 2017 drafts will end up with more than just two guys getting ranked.

[drjim]

I think BA was the lowest on the Twins at the start of the season. I imagine a few of the other midseason updates will include Gonsalves and maybe Romero.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the rankings right now. As the other poster noted, a lot of it has to do with Stewart and Jay but the young players taken last year and this year won't be on these lists right away but I suspect the 2016 and 2017 drafts will end up with more than just two guys getting ranked.

I find the rankings pretty accurate and reflective of the state of the farm system.

 

I would personally but Javier #3, but also agree that Gonsalves or Romero could sneak in. Gonsalves could especially rate higher on Fangraphs or Sickels.

[Respy]

Wow Nick Gordon honestly went way higher than I expected.  They are ranking him as an A- or elite prospect, instead of about a B-prospect where I'd put him.  Things like this will help the team as trade-bait if the front office decides to go that direction.  

 

I'm surprised that neither Gonsalves nor Romero squeaked in past #100.

 

I'm also very surprised that Vlad Guerrero Jr. is all the way up at #2, given that he's only had 269 AB at A-ball and is doing good but not completely dominating. Also he's an average runner and fairly poor in the OF. The Blue Jays just announced that he'll head to high A after the all-star break.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm also very surprised that Vlad Guerrero Jr. is all the way up at #2, given that he's only had 269 AB at A-ball and is doing good but not completely dominating. Also he's an average runner and fairly poor in the OF. The Blue Jays just announced that he'll head to high A after the all-star break.

Guerrero Jr. is actually pretty close to dominating -- he's got a 151 wRC+ this season.  And it's not just BABIP, he is actually walking more than he is striking out!  Plus he just turned 18 a few month ago, and is playing 3B not OF.  Not surprised at all to see him ranked #2.

[jimmer]

 

Guerrero Jr. is actually pretty close to dominating -- he's got a 151 wRC+ this season.  And it's not just BABIP, he is actually walking more than he is striking out!  Plus he just turned 18 a few month ago, and is playing 3B not OF.  Not surprised at all to see him ranked #2.

Like you said, he definitely is dominating.  He's killing it.  I would have been surprised if he wasn't top 5.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Walker Buehler at #17 highlights why the Dodgers would have been hesitant to include him in a trade this past winter -- just a ton of potential to rise quickly.  Verdugo and Calhoun have risen too.

 

On the other hand, De Leon was definitely a sell-high. Alvarez could have been one too...

[amjgt]

Sure.... this guy is a better prospect that Gonsalves

 

Dylan Cease: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/9451/dylan-cease

 

Gonsalves: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/5120/stephen-gonsalves

 

Righty that is 1 year younger than Gonsalves (lefty), but is at Low-A, has a slightly K/9, but a way higher BB/9

 

ETA: He's ranked 83

[drjim]

Sure.... this guy is a better prospect that Gonsalves

 

Dylan Cease: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/9451/dylan-cease

 

Gonsalves: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/5120/stephen-gonsalves

 

Righty that is 1 year younger than Gonsalves (lefty), but is at Low-A, has a slightly K/9, but a way higher BB/9

 

ETA: He's ranked 83

Definitely stuff over numbers in that ranking. Can't argue too much, it's a personal preference situation. But wouldn't be too surprised if the more stat based rankings bump up Gonsalves.

[biggentleben]

 

Walker Buehler at #17 highlights why the Dodgers would have been hesitant to include him in a trade this past winter -- just a ton of potential to rise quickly.  Verdugo and Calhoun have risen too.

 

On the other hand, De Leon was definitely a sell-high. Alvarez could have been one too...

 

Alvarez had some stuff go on this offseason personally that took him away from baseball, left him quite out of shape when he arrived in camp, and he's not been 100% in his health yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another problem for Gonsalves and Romero is that there isn't really a clear line at 100 or anything. There probably isn't a meaningful difference between 85 and 115 most of the time.

 

That's why I like Sickels' grades a bit more than straight-up rankings, although looking across a couple lists is usually decent shorthand.

[biggentleben]

 

Sure.... this guy is a better prospect that Gonsalves

 

Dylan Cease: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/9451/dylan-cease

 

Gonsalves: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/5120/stephen-gonsalves

 

Righty that is 1 year younger than Gonsalves (lefty), but is at Low-A, has a slightly K/9, but a way higher BB/9

 

ETA: He's ranked 83

 

Cease is also a guy who runs it up to triple digits and is one of the nicest kids I've covered. You don't want to let that "good guy" stuff set your ranking, but it can push a guy a bit for sure.

[biggentleben]

 

Another problem for Gonsalves and Romero is that there isn't really a clear line at 100 or anything. There probably isn't a meaningful difference between 85 and 115 most of the time.

 

That's why I like Sickels' grades a bit more than straight-up rankings, although looking across a couple lists is usually decent shorthand.

 

That's why I went 125 this spring. I got to 100 and had quite a few I felt were still worthy, so I chose to just add another 25. There is a common issue with tiers bunching up around the 100 mark.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Alvarez had some stuff go on this offseason personally that took him away from baseball, left him quite out of shape when he arrived in camp, and he's not been 100% in his health yet.

Sure, and Alvarez has plenty of time to get back on track.  BA still has him at #60 after a pretty difficult first half too.  But it does seem like he had a bit of helium this past offseason.

[biggentleben]

 

Sure, and Alvarez has plenty of time to get back on track.  BA still has him at #60 after a pretty difficult first half too.  But it does seem like he had a bit of helium this past offseason.

 

Definitely, and for good reason. I had him up to the top 30 after seeing him as he built control of his ridiculous arsenal as the 2016 season wore on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's why I went 125 this spring. I got to 100 and had quite a few I felt were still worthy, so I chose to just add another 25. There is a common issue with tiers bunching up around the 100 mark.

It might seem like overkill, but I also like Sickels' super long lists (175-200).

[biggentleben]

 

It might seem like overkill, but I also like Sickels' super long lists (175-200).

 

He knows his audience. I'd read 300 if he put it up. Most of the people on that site would as well, I'm sure!

[drjim]

Another problem for Gonsalves and Romero is that there isn't really a clear line at 100 or anything. There probably isn't a meaningful difference between 85 and 115 most of the time.

 

That's why I like Sickels' grades a bit more than straight-up rankings, although looking across a couple lists is usually decent shorthand.

BA also puts out number rankings and risk assessments (50 high) in the handbook. Very helpful too.

 

I actually find the BA rankings some of the least helpful, but the overall thoroughness of prospect coverage is impressive.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

BA also puts out number rankings and risk assessments (50 high) in the handbook. Very helpful too.

Yup. I found myself consulting the Fangraphs prospect lists this past winter a lot too, for that reason.

[clutterheart]

 

Sure.... this guy is a better prospect that Gonsalves

 

Dylan Cease: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/9451/dylan-cease

 

Gonsalves: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/5120/stephen-gonsalves

 

Righty that is 1 year younger than Gonsalves (lefty), but is at Low-A, has a slightly K/9, but a way higher BB/9

 

ETA: He's ranked 83

 

Crease throws in the mid 95 - 99 mph range, has a good curve.  His ceiling is #1 starter.  Scouts are not in love with Gonsalves's pitches.  "Stats ahead of the stuff" is something I have often read when it comes to Gonsalves.  

 

[drivlikejehu]

I'm not sure whether either should be top 100 prospects or not, but both Romero and Gonsalves are pitching well in a hitter-friendly AA environment, which is encouraging.