Next Roster Move: Pitcher for Batter, but Whom?

[drjim]

I think it's quite rational. Is Park measurably better than Vargas? Hell, is he measurably better than Palka?

 

And both of those guys are on the 40-man roster.

 

Now, if you want to call the Twins crazy for not having Vargas on the roster, you'll get no argument from me on that.

It's definitely time. But there is not a clear pitcher to send out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's definitely time. But there is not a clear pitcher to send out.

There's also not a clear pitcher worth keeping.

[The_Phantom]

 

I think it's quite rational. Is Park measurably better than Vargas? Hell, is he measurably better than Palka?

 

And both of those guys are on the 40-man roster.

 

Now, if you want to call the Twins crazy for not having Vargas on the roster, you'll get no argument from me on that.

 

I do believe that Park is better than Vargas, yes. Enough to change the 40 man situation? Well, I believe so. But point is taken that at least Vargas should be on the roster.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's definitely time. But there is not a clear pitcher to send out.

 

I'd see what the Red Sox want for Haley.

 

Or just cut Breslow.

[USAFChief]

 

It's definitely time. But there is not a clear pitcher to send out.

That's not a reason not to pick one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I do believe that Park is better than Vargas, yes. Enough to change the 40 man situation? Well, I believe so. But point is taken that at least Vargas should be on the roster.

Well, it's likely the front office will feel they need to waive Vargas to put Park on the 40 man. Teams try to balance rosters and for good reason: you can find yourself in quite a situation if two starters go down and you have five 1B/DH types and not enough pitchers on your roster.

 

So I think it's wise to just give Vargas his shot, let him take his hacks against MLB pitching for two months, and then consider whether you want to just cut the guy and replace him with Park or keep Vargas  in Minnesota and try to do something else with Park.

[drjim]

That's not a reason not to pick one.

Unfortunately it is. The immediate pitching depth is such that they are kind of stuck with a bloated staff on the 25 man roster.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unfortunately it is. The immediate pitching depth is such that they are kind of stuck with a bloated staff on the 25 man roster.

 

How so? Why can't they cut Tonkin or Breslow? 

[drjim]

How so? Why can't they cut Tonkin or Breslow?

They can do whatever they want.

 

But they don't have a RP ready (other than mop up guys) that they would want to call up at the moment, or any pitcher other than Berrios. They are really thin.

 

Could change quickly is Chargois gets healthy and Burdi and Melotakis keep up their early season performance. But they aren't there yet.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They can do whatever they want.

But they don't have a RP ready (other than mop up guys) that they would want to call up at the moment, or any pitcher other than Berrios. They are really thin.

Could change quickly is Chargois gets healthy and Burdi and Melotakis keep up their early season performance. But they aren't there yet.

 

And? Any of those guys or Tepesch could do what Tonkin or Breslow are doing. Of course, neither of those have options, like Chargois, Burdi, Melo, and about 5 others do. 

[drjim]

 

And? Any of those guys or Tepesch could do what Tonkin or Breslow are doing. Of course, neither of those have options, like Chargois, Burdi, Melo, and about 5 others do. 

 

And I suspect the front office is not as willing to be as fast and loose with their pitching depth as people on this board might be. And I don't think think they agree with your evaluation of Tepesch.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And I suspect the front office is not as willing to be as fast and loose with their pitching depth as people on this board might be. And I don't think think they agree with your evaluation of Tepesch.

Is it really "fast and loose", though? Charois, Melotakis, and Burdi aren't borderline prospects (in the reliever sense, anyway).

 

There are enough moving pieces on this roster to patch together a bullpen if things go badly and a guy gets injured.

 

For example, move Gibson to the long man role, shift Haley to a more prominent role, and call up Berrios.

 

And in a couple of months, at least one of the hot-shot relievers should be ready to pick up the slack.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And I suspect the front office is not as willing to be as fast and loose with their pitching depth as people on this board might be. And I don't think think they agree with your evaluation of Tepesch.

 

given that those two either NEVER pitch, or only pitch when the Twins are down 4 runs or more, does it matter?

[drjim]

 

Is it really "fast and loose", though? Charois, Melotakis, and Burdi aren't borderline prospects (in the reliever sense, anyway).

 

There are enough moving pieces on this roster to patch together a bullpen if things go badly and a guy gets injured.

 

For example, move Gibson to the long man role, shift Haley to a more prominent role, and call up Berrios.

 

And in a couple of months, at least one of the hot-shot relievers should be ready to pick up the slack.

 

It is fast and loose before those three are ready. I suspect we'll see movement on the borderline mlb relievers once those guys are deemed near ready to pitch in the bigs.

 

And I think they are a long ways away from demoting Gibson. And Berrios is only coming up to start. They are a little limited until the bullpen arms are ready in the minors.

[drjim]

 

given that those two either NEVER pitch, or only pitch when the Twins are down 4 runs or more, does it matter?

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone else stays healthy and effective. But that's what the front office is not willing to risk at the moment.

[The_Phantom]

I think there's a slight misunderstanding of Babip happening on this forum.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone else stays healthy and effective. But that's what the front office is not willing to risk at the moment.

 

Too bad. This roster isn't a winning roster. The sooner they get guys up who have a chance to be part of a winning team, the better. IMO, of course. Playing from fear seems odd, when you have 13 pitchers, and at least 4 or 5 that could come up now and be as effective as what they have at the back end.

[Doomtints]

Garver's bat is on fire. The other candidates are injured, coming off injuries, or not playing all that well.

 

However, I don't know that this move needs to be made until the guy they truly want in the majors is ready. That's probably not Garver at this point.. As the pitching is starting to show its flaws, they may as well hold pat.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think there's a slight misunderstanding of Babip happening on this forum.

 

Like what? 

[The_Phantom]

 

Like what? 

 

It's seemingly being used as a blanket "bad luck" stat. This thread said Rosario had an unsustainably bad Babip but now it's getting higher. Not all Balls put in play are equal. 

 

If a guy is popping up all the time or if he's doing a lot of bunting, or in Rosario's case, hitting a lot of soft ground balls, that is not "bad luck" that the defense is getting to the ball. 

 

It's just one of those stats that you can't look at one number and apply it as if it is a tell all. 

 

Buxton and Rosario are both struggling to hit the ball with authority. Rosario has 6 line drives, Buxton has 4. The low Babip is a byproduct of weak fly balls and soft grounders (As in just missing the ball). It's being applied as though the struggles are BECAUSE they are putting the ball in play and it just happens that a lot of the times that it's being put in play they are still getting out. Of course they are getting out when its lazy flies and dribblers. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's seemingly being used as a blanket "bad luck" stat. This thread said Rosario had an unsustainably bad Babip but now it's getting higher. Not all Balls put in play are equal. 

 

If a guy is popping up all the time or if he's doing a lot of bunting, or in Rosario's case, hitting a lot of soft ground balls, that is not "bad luck" that the defense is getting to the ball. 

 

It's just one of those stats that you can't look at one number and apply it as if it is a tell all. 

 

Buxton and Rosario are both struggling to hit the ball with authority. Rosario has 6 line drives, Buxton has 4. The low Babip is a byproduct of weak fly balls and soft grounders (As in just missing the ball). It's being applied as though the struggles are BECAUSE they are putting the ball in play and it just happens that a lot of the times that it's being put in play they are still getting out. Of course they are getting out when its lazy flies and dribblers. 

 

Or maybe people are comparing Rosario's BABIP this year to last, and stating that it probably won't stay this low this year, based on previous years. As in, so far, he's not making great contact, but based on his past, that's not likely to continue. 

 

I won't comment on Buxton....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's seemingly being used as a blanket "bad luck" stat. This thread said Rosario had an unsustainably bad Babip but now it's getting higher. Not all Balls put in play are equal. 

 

If a guy is popping up all the time or if he's doing a lot of bunting, or in Rosario's case, hitting a lot of soft ground balls, that is not "bad luck" that the defense is getting to the ball. 

 

It's just one of those stats that you can't look at one number and apply it as if it is a tell all. 

 

Buxton and Rosario are both struggling to hit the ball with authority. Rosario has 6 line drives, Buxton has 4. The low Babip is a byproduct of weak fly balls and soft grounders (As in just missing the ball). It's being applied as though the struggles are BECAUSE they are putting the ball in play and it just happens that a lot of the times that it's being put in play they are still getting out. Of course they are getting out when its lazy flies and dribblers. 

No one is disputing that.

 

But Rosario has 800+ career plate appearances with a consistent BABIP.

 

We're not pulling a number out of thin air, we're comparing Rosario to himself.

 

What is more likely about Rosario?

 

1. He suddenly forgot how to hit a baseball with authority.

2. 40 plate appearances with an abnormally low BABIP comparative to his own career number is unlikely to continue.

[The_Phantom]

 

Or maybe people are comparing Rosario's BABIP this year to last, and stating that it probably won't stay this low this year, based on previous years. As in, so far, he's not making great contact, but based on his past, that's not likely to continue. 

 

I won't comment on Buxton....

 

Well, perhaps. But that certainly wasn't the case the last time I saw it come up here. I am pretty new so i haven't figured out how to search out old posts I want to find. But one post was talking about Babip (and I don't remember if it was Buxton or Rosario or even someone else) but the post commented that their Babip was down in the low 100s and the league average was around .270 so it HAD to come up. And that's just not the way it works. 

[jun]

 

I do believe that Park is better than Vargas, yes. Enough to change the 40 man situation? Well, I believe so. But point is taken that at least Vargas should be on the roster.

I don't take spring training stats seriously like you do. I believe Vargas has more potential. 

[The_Phantom]

 

I don't take spring training stats seriously like you do. I believe Vargas has more potential. 

 

I don't think I said anything about Spring Training? But even if I did, Vargas regular season numbers haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard either. 

[jun]

 

I'd see what the Red Sox want for Haley.

 

Or just cut Breslow.

Cut Tonkin first. Breslow is at least a lefty.

[jimbo92107]

 

It has to be Vargas. Grossman is good, Mauer is bad, and the Twins need some help in both the outfield and at first base.

 

Vargas checks all those boxes or allows others to check those boxes if he rotates into the lineup.

 

I don't like the idea of losing Adrianza but both Escobar and Polanco look good this season. I'm surprisingly unconcerned about the left side of the infield right now.

Yeah, this makes sense. Vargas offers the best mix of attributes, plus the team really needs some power hitting at 1B. Mauer could play the field and bat second like last year, while Vargas at DH would provide better protection for Sano. When Joe sits, Vargas at 1st is about average, plus Mauer would be a good defensive replacement and pinch hitter.

 

Grossman has had an impressive start, but his history indicates that he will cool off to the usual sub-.250 average, tho his opb will stay high. It's actually fun watching him work his magic with plate discipline. Kind of a lost art in mlb. However, using Grossman as a DH is not going to provide the power you want at DH. 

 

As for who goes, I was thinking Breslow, but now I'm leaning Tonkin because Molitor has never favored him. Tonkin needs to be set free so he can get a fresh start and be used as a 1-inning setup guy. I remember thinking he might be the future closer, but he never showed that kind of attacking precision. He's got good stuff, but somehow hasn't found a niche on this club.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Well, perhaps. But that certainly wasn't the case the last time I saw it come up here. I am pretty new so i haven't figured out how to search out old posts I want to find. But one post was talking about Babip (and I don't remember if it was Buxton or Rosario or even someone else) but the post commented that their Babip was down in the low 100s and the league average was around .270 so it HAD to come up. And that's just not the way it works. 

You are absolutely right that weak ground balls and lazy fly balls seldom turn into hits.

No argument there.

The point was that Rosario has enough of a track record to draw some casual conclusions. Not writ in stone, but we have an idea of what we can expect. I still believe that his BABIP will normalize and his slash lines will improve. His GB% is at a career high, his LD% is at a career low. For now.

 

I believe Rosario is doing what Buxton should be doing. Making contact. It remains too be seen, but I would be very surprised if Rosario's stats don't look much, much better at the end of May.

[jun]

 

I don't think I said anything about Spring Training? But even if I did, Vargas regular season numbers haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard either. 

 

I think that's the only stats that support your argument. I still remember a few years ago I was one of the few who firmly believe Escobar is a better player than D Santana.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I believe Rosario is doing what Buxton should be doing. Making contact. It remains too be seen, but I would be very surprised if Rosario's stats don't look much, much better at the end of May.

Yes and yes.

 

Rosario is making the adjustments that need to be made. If he continues down this path, I suspect his numbers will normalize in short order.

 

And if he keeps laying off bad pitches and making more contact with the pitches he swings at, which he has done this season, he may even improve over his 2015 numbers.

 

And at that point, you have yourself a damned fine everyday left fielder.