Fire sale or no sale?

[TheGiantTeapot]

Hi everybody! New member here. I'm not a big stat person so please use small stats and words! If you were the GM or CBO of any MLB team, who would you want from this 2017 opening day roster? It seems Falvine are looking long term by parking Park and other blue chippers in AAA. I'm curious what you all think. To me it looks more like a 5 year plan to success.

 

Starting Pitchers:
Ervin Santana
Hector Santiago
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Adalberto Mejia

 

Bullpen:
Brandon Kintzler
Matt Belisle
Ryan Pressly
Taylor Rogers
Craig Breslow
Michael Tonkin
Justin Haley
Tyler Duffey
Ryan O'Rourke (DL)

 

Catchers:
Jason Castro
Chris Gimenez

 

Infielders:
Joe Mauer
Brian Dozier
Miguel Sano
Jorge Polanco
Eduardo Escobar
Ehire Adrianza (DL)

 

Outfielders:
Eddie Rosario
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Robbie Grossman
Danny Santana

[old nurse]

Dozier and Castro are the only position player that would constitute a fire sale as Mauer has the no trade. Any of the younger players it would be a move  of giving up on them, dfa, or blockbuster trade. Santana and Santiago for starting pitching. Hughes coming off injury and having a long term contract is hardly movable. Kinzler is the only reliever of value. Breslow would be a major comeback to have value. The rest are either your building blocks or organizational filler.

[mikecgrimes]

You never know what you might get for even a Giminez or Escobar but you could only expect a meaningful return on 4 maybe 5 players.  Lets make sure we're not 7-3 in two weeks before worrying about this stuff. Even if this is a well below average team again we're due for a decent start, and I actually don't think this team is that bad.  Doesn't mean you don't still trade Doizer even if you are sort of in playoff contention, but it might not be as automatic as we make it out to be.  Of course I understand I'm way to optimistic, but it's baseball let it play out.  Not every smart young GM feels the need to destroy a roster to fix it despite that being a plan that has proven to work with the Cubs.

[HitInAPinch]

Jeez, look at the new guy starting up trouble right away. 

 

WELCOME!!!!

 

I really don't see a Fire Sale happening.  I just don't see a lot that other teams would consider an asset. 

 

At this point, I don't consider much on this team as being "set".  And that includes the OF.  Oh, there's definitely potential in Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.  But still not proven.  I'll wait.

 

The infield has, IMHO, 2 guys playing out of place:  Sano and Polanco.  When Mauer's contract is up after next year, I see Sano at 1st.  And I would try my damnedest to make sure he's not a full-time DH. 

 

Polanco:  Well, there's Dozier.  Dozier seems to be an ill fit for a rebuilding team.  But he has value.  Some team will be looking to add a 2B guy with big power around the All Star break.  Polanco just doesn't seem to have the skills to play SS:  bad footwork.

 

Pitching:  Don't get me started.  There are at least 2 filler-types in the starting rotation.  About 5 in the bullpen. 

 

I do understand what management is doing:  They signed veterans to be spot fillers until some MiLBers are deemed ready.  Don't know how that's gonna work out.  My guess is went the FO is ready to move, Chargois is the first one called up.  Just a gut feeling.  And when another is moved / moved off the 40-man roster, Park is called up. 

 

[drjim]

There's actually a decent amount of value on this roster, it's just that much of that value is locked into young guys that they shouldn't even consider moving.

[beckmt]

I feel despite what it will do to this year, that a number of decent clubs have starting rotation issues.  All 4 of the Twins starters outside of Mejia have value.  It is just a question of your valuation of them against the team that is looking.  At this time a trade is unlikely because values will not match.  By early May, if some of the Twins starters are pitching well and some contenders what them it will be easlier to make the valuations match.  At that time I say move them, not that I think the Twins will(they probably won't(do to Molitor), but it is the best chance of unlocking what value you have and getting decent returns.  Later there will be more sellers and prices will go down due to having options of where to pick up pitchers.

 

[beckmt]

I also due believe this FO will cut bait a lot quicker on non-performing players.  So by midseason if things go how I feel they will, this roster will look much different than it does now.

Biggest joker in the deck is Molitor, who does not seem to be onboard with the program and has proven to be able to go around the FO directly to the owner.  That makes predictions very difficult.

[drjim]

I feel despite what it will do to this year, that a number of decent clubs have starting rotation issues. All 4 of the Twins starters outside of Mejia have value. It is just a question of your valuation of them against the team that is looking. At this time a trade is unlikely because values will not match. By early May, if some of the Twins starters are pitching well and some contenders what them it will be easlier to make the valuations match. At that time I say move them, not that I think the Twins will(they probably won't(do to Molitor), but it is the best chance of unlocking what value you have and getting decent returns. Later there will be more sellers and prices will go down due to having options of where to pick up pitchers.

Hughes won't have any value at any point this year and it's hard to imagine the Twins moving Gibson.

 

But I could also see Santiago and Santana having some nice value at the deadline.

[drjim]

I also due believe this FO will cut bait a lot quicker on non-performing players. So by midseason if things go how I feel they will, this roster will look much different than it does now.

Biggest joker in the deck is Molitor, who does not seem to be onboard with the program and has proven to be able to go around the FO directly to the owner. That makes predictions very difficult.

Out of curiosity where do you get this about Molitor? There might be some disagreements on opening day roster, but why does that equal not being on board? Or a direct line to ownership of any significance?

[beckmt]

 

Out of curiosity where do you get this about Molitor? There might be some disagreements on opening day roster, but why does that equal not being on board? Or a direct line to ownership of any significance?

It was on this blog last year about Molitor's daughter and Pohlad's daughter having a business relationship. That would be the access and explain why he was retained.  Differences are always going to be papered over out front.  This is my take on why Molitor won the battle with Terry Ryan and Terry Ryan was let go. 

This year the 8 relief pitchers are there to prevent Molitor from misusing 1 inning relievers.  This should not happen, but you have to deal with fact that Molitor is not a good manager of pitchers.  This is why the current roster looks so funny. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

If you were the GM or CBO of any MLB team, who would you want from this 2017 opening day roster? 

 

So I’m a MLB GM and have a team of average players at each position. Who would I take from this roster?
1. Brian Dozier – for obvious reasons
2. Byron Buxton – for defense, highlight footage and offensive projection
3. Miguel Sano – for offensive projection
4. Jorge Polanco – based on his history he is likely to be an above average player for several years
5. Ervin Santana – solid veteran presence in the rotation
6. Ryan Pressly – good track record

 

I think that’s it. Not nothing, but not a lot from a 25 man roster.
I know WE are fond of some of the others, but most other teams would look at them like a guy who shouldn’t be in MLB (DanSan), a guy with no plate discipline (Rosario), a guy who can’t hit LH pitching to save his soul (Kepler).

So, if I had an average team and could take any Twins player I wanted, 6 of our 25. And Polanco is largely guesswork.

[drjim]

It was on this blog last year about Molitor's daughter and Pohlad's daughter having a business relationship. That would be the access and explain why he was retained. Differences are always going to be papered over out front. This is my take on why Molitor won the battle with Terry Ryan and Terry Ryan was let go.

This year the 8 relief pitchers are there to prevent Molitor from misusing 1 inning relievers. This should not happen, but you have to deal with fact that Molitor is not a good manager of pitchers. This is why the current roster looks so funny.

I agree Molitor probably got an extra year, but that won't last beyond this year.

 

And the 1 inning issue is very low (if at all) on the list of reasons for 8 relievers.

[USAFChief]

I agree Molitor probably got an extra year, but that won't last beyond this year.

We'll see.

[drjim]

We'll see.

I meant he won't get special dispensation from ownership (at least I don't think). He may be retained.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I also due believe this FO will cut bait a lot quicker on non-performing players.  So by midseason if things go how I feel they will, this roster will look much different than it does now.

Biggest joker in the deck is Molitor, who does not seem to be onboard with the program and has proven to be able to go around the FO directly to the owner.  That makes predictions very difficult.

 

1) Hard to blame Molitor. On some level, he has to feel that he's coaching for his job. If he comes in with another 100 loss season playing the kids, he's an easy guy to axe to placate the fans. It makes sense he'd want to keep players. However, I think people here are decidedly wrong if they think he has veto power on any deals. He had a surprising amount of say in who made the roster (though the 13 man bullpen clearly shows the FO has a lot of sway) but if the FO decides to make a deal, it's going to happen.

 

2) I actually like the roster. I might have done things a bit different with Byung Ho (though if Vargas is ready for the season, maybe they see something they like more). The Twins didn't find the market they wanted for Dozier and Santana (to a lesser extent) this offseason. When you're maximizing value for guys, you sometimes have to wait. That can bite you in the butt but that's why it's not an easy job. The Twins have some decent pieces for a mini-fire sale. You can add Santiago/Gibson for starters (I can't see any team taking Hughes because of the big numbers on his deal, that would be more in the offseason) and the pen has a number of veteran guys who could fetch something if they have a nice (or Abad) first half - Breslow particularly but also Kintzler, Belisle or one of the younger Pressley/Rogers/Tonkin trio.

 

3) Agreed they'll cut bait on players quickly. With the exception of Wimmers and maybe Park (how useful are spring training numbers?) there aren't a lot of guys who needed to be on that roster. You could argue for just throwing guys to the wolves but I agree with the FO that it's much better to let those guys develop and force their way to the majors and in the meantime, see if some vets can bring back prospects.

 

It hasn't been popular on TD but I think it's been a good spring.

[beckmt]

 

I agree Molitor probably got an extra year, but that won't last beyond this year.

And the 1 inning issue is very low (if at all) on the list of reasons for 8 relievers.

It was the misuse of Tonkin and other short relievers last year by Molitor that was the issue.  2 long men should always make 1 available unless you have a string of short starts, that would leave you with another bigger issue.

[drjim]

It was the misuse of Tonkin and other short relievers last year by Molitor that was the issue. 2 long men should always make 1 available unless you have a string of short starts, that would leave you with another bigger issue.

I put the blame much more on the dumpster fire bullpen he was given.

 

I know this isn't a direction most are taking, but I don't really fault Molitor too much for trying to squeeze out a couple extra outs from a marginal guy when he didn't have many other options.

[beckmt]

 

I put the blame much more on the dumpster fire bullpen he was given.

I know this isn't a direction most are taking, but I don't really fault Molitor too much for trying to squeeze out a couple extra outs from a marginal guy when he didn't have many other options.

It is very difficult to do evaluations when you are asking the player to do things are have not been doing in the past.  It is like taking a long term employee in the computer department, asking them to change languages, and at the same time holding them to the same standard as the rest of the programmers who have trained in the language and are proficient in it.

[drjim]

It is very difficult to do evaluations when you are asking the player to do things are have not been doing in the past. It is like taking a long term employee in the computer department, asking them to change languages, and at the same time holding them to the same standard as the rest of the programmers who have trained in the language and are proficient in it.

That's fair. But if you are a borderline arm who can only go one inning and needs to be shielded from lefties, you don't bring much value.

[DJSim22]

 

Hi everybody! New member here. I'm not a big stat person so please use small stats and words! If you were the GM or CBO of any MLB team, who would you want from this 2017 opening day roster? It seems Falvine are looking long term by parking Park and other blue chippers in AAA. I'm curious what you all think. To me it looks more like a 5 year plan to success.

 

Starting Pitchers:
Ervin Santana
Hector Santiago
Kyle Gibson
Phil Hughes
Adalberto Mejia

 

Bullpen:
Brandon Kintzler
Matt Belisle
Ryan Pressly
Taylor Rogers
Craig Breslow
Michael Tonkin
Justin Haley
Tyler Duffey
Ryan O'Rourke (DL)

 

Catchers:
Jason Castro
Chris Gimenez

 

Infielders:
Joe Mauer
Brian Dozier
Miguel Sano
Jorge Polanco
Eduardo Escobar
Ehire Adrianza (DL)

 

Outfielders:
Eddie Rosario
Byron Buxton
Max Kepler
Robbie Grossman
Danny Santana

 

What is says to me, is that they don't think the young talent is either ready or that good. 

 

Stick around there's a lot of awesome people here. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

These are the guys that I'd trade or some cases consider trading, most of which I'd think of flipping even if they were contending so long as a capable replacement was near by.  Most won't get much, and I'm fine with that.

 

Starting Pitchers:
Ervin Santana
Hector Santiago
Phil Hughes

Bullpen:
Brandon Kintzler
Matt Belisle
Craig Breslow
Michael Tonkin
Ryan O'Rourke (DL)

Catchers:
Chris Gimenez

Infielders:
Brian Dozier
Ehire Adrianza (DL)

Outfielders:

Robbie Grossman
Danny Santana

 

I think the team can at tops win 85 games, and yes I know that's optimistic. I think they flirt with .500 for most of the season.  Even in that scenario, I'm not sure I'd be in buyer mode at the deadline unless I was picking up something that would help over the next couple years.

 

Realistically, I'd expect one or two relievers, Santiago if we're lucky, and Dozier to get moved.

[Guest]

The South Coast Mall is having a fire sale!

 

Kintzler and Belisle are the first hopes for trades. Free agents at the end of the year and a lot of teams want relievers for the stretch run.

 

Park could get something. You'd think Boston and Texas will be watching him. Maybe Seattle or LAAA.

 

Escobar will be available, if it looks like younger players are ready. Probably wouldn't get as much as the two relievers or Park.

 

All four of the veteran starting pitchers will be available, but the offers may be disappointing. Much of the league thinks Santana was lucky last year. Nobody will want Santiago (I really hope I'm wrong!). Gibson and Hughes have a lot to prove.

 

They should consider trading Nick Gordon, if they can get something for him. He's going to have a lot of baggage tied to expectations set by the previous regime and his high draft pick. A fresh start could be better for everyone.

 

Pressly, Tonkin? Sure, if you can. . . and if the long-promised superstars in the minors show they're ready, or at least if you think Wimmers and Baxendale can be reasonable facsimiles.

 

Breslow? It would be odd to trade next year's pitching coach.

 

Dozier? Sure, but it may not as easy as expected. It may depend upon an availability due to injury. Mets? Blue Jays?

[HitInAPinch]

The trading of any Twin will largely depend on the desperation of the big market teams to stick in the pennant race.  

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...
Breslow? It would be odd to trade next year's pitching coach.

Yeah... I've had that thought as well.

[Doomtints]

Even if the Twins trade off every tradeable player, 20+ of the 25 man roster is left intact. That's not much of a fire sale, that's a rather normal amount of trading activity. 

[TheGiantTeapot]

Other than Gibson and Erv, I don't see our pitching staff (all 13!) attracting much attention... hoping Mejia provides a pleasant surprise.

Brian Dozier  (Betting he's gone by the trade deadline in return for 2 solid prospects)
Miguel Sano  (Is worth a #1 or #2 SP but won't be moved)
Byron Buxton (Will be worth a #1 or #2 SP but won't be moved)
Max Kepler (Sophomore season, won't be moved, high ceiling)

Byung Ho Park (Being showcased at AAA, will attract 2 SP prospects by the All-Star break)

 

There ya go. Bold predictions from a casual fan with no basis in reality. (The predictions or the fan.)
 

[Mike Sixel]

Why would you trade Gordon, your starting shortstop for ten years? That is an odd suggestion, imo.

[old nurse]

 

The South Coast Mall is having a fire sale!

Kintzler and Belisle are the first hopes for trades. Free agents at the end of the year and a lot of teams want relievers for the stretch run.

Park could get something. You'd think Boston and Texas will be watching him. Maybe Seattle or LAAA.

Escobar will be available, if it looks like younger players are ready. Probably wouldn't get as much as the two relievers or Park.

All four of the veteran starting pitchers will be available, but the offers may be disappointing. Much of the league thinks Santana was lucky last year. Nobody will want Santiago (I really hope I'm wrong!). Gibson and Hughes have a lot to prove.

They should consider trading Nick Gordon, if they can get something for him. He's going to have a lot of baggage tied to expectations set by the previous regime and his high draft pick. A fresh start could be better for everyone.

Pressly, Tonkin? Sure, if you can. . . and if the long-promised superstars in the minors show they're ready, or at least if you think Wimmers and Baxendale can be reasonable facsimiles.

Breslow? It would be odd to trade next year's pitching coach.

Dozier? Sure, but it may not as easy as expected. It may depend upon an availability due to injury. Mets? Blue Jays?

If Breslow can pitch he will not take a coaching job. A million and some a year is a lot better that 100-300k a year as a coach. It might be debatable the pitching part now. A lot of walks this spring and he might not have been facing the A team players. I did not pay that close of attention.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why would you trade Gordon, your starting shortstop for ten years? That is an odd suggestion, imo.

hes playing some second base this year.... maybe not a lock at SS

[Guest]

If Breslow can pitch he will not take a coaching job. A million and some a year is a lot better that 100-300k a year as a coach. It might be debatable the pitching part now. A lot of walks this spring and he might not have been facing the A team players. I did not pay that close of attention.