Accounting for the Runs in Your Predicted 2017 Twins Wins

[Teflon]

The Twins gave up 889 runs last season and scored 772 for a run differential of -167 runs. Knowing the Twins will improve about 2 games for every 20 runs they trim from this figure (starting at a baseline of 65 wins at -160 runs)  what's your prediction for the 2017 Twins win total and your breakdown of how they'll account for the neccessary changes to the run differential?

 

Example:

 

Phase                 Runs +/- Note

Infield Defense         -10     Full season of Sano at 3B

Outfield Defense      +20    400 more innings of Buxton & Kepler

Catching                  +10     Castro

Starting Pitching        +5     same runs but more innings

Relief Pitching          +20     less exposed

Hitting                      +15     Maturing hitters

Net                           +60    -100 run differential, 71 wins

 

 

 

RunDifferential -  Estimated Wins

-160 65

-140 67

-120 69

-100 71

  -80 73

  -60 75

  -40 77

  -20 79

     0 81

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Interesting idea.

I'll sit back and watch others take a shot at it, though.

[Vanimal46]

Phase Runs +/- Note
Infield Defense -20 Full season of Sano at 3B and Polanco at SS.... Lots of bobbled ground balls 
Outfield Defense  +20  400 more innings of Buxton & Kepler.... Sounds about right
Catching  +10 Castro
Starting Pitching  +5 same runs but more innings
Relief Pitching  +10 - expecting regression from Kintzler as the IF defense is worse this season - lots of shuffling between other pitchers
Hitting  +15 Maturing hitters

 

Total: -120 for 69 wins. 

[Blake]

I'm against math. The Twins win 71 games this year. Yes, I pulled that number out of, okay, we'll call it "thin air."

[USAFChief]

I've got my heart set on "sequencing."

[Doomtints]

~71 wins is on par with the reasonable predictions that are out there.

 

Did you crack the Atlantis Casino formula?

[Blake]

 

~71 wins is on par with the reasonable predictions that are out there.

 

Did you crack the Atlantis Casino formula?

Actually, I've been saying 71 wins since threads started going up regarding win predictions and I'm too stubborn to change. Some would call curmudgeonly even. 

[Willihammer]

This team could trim off 100 runs with improved pitching and defense and still only be ~25th in baseball in runs allowed.

 

They're gonna have to mash to be competitive.

 

They hit 200 homers last year. Can they top that?

 

Can they cut down on the K's?

[Doomtints]

 

Actually, I've been saying 71 wins since threads started going up regarding win predictions and I'm too stubborn to change. Some would call curmudgeonly even. 

 

I'm right there with ya.

 

More wins are possible but don't put your money on it.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This team could trim off 100 runs with improved pitching and defense and still only be ~25th in baseball in runs allowed.

...

That is a staggeringly discouraging stat, Willlihammer.

In fact, had the Twins given up 162 fewer runs, 1 run per game, they would have tied the Angels for 19th place. Wow.

I am hoping we have more people on base this year when home runs are hit. It would be helpful if our K% (6th) changed places with our W% (13th) but I don't see our free-swinging players doing that. Maybe a step or two in the right direction.

 

The pitching needs to be much better before this team is at all competitive. I am sticking with my under as to the 74.5 wins for the Twins this year.

[Doomtints]

 

They hit 200 homers last year. Can they top that?

 

Can they cut down on the K's?

 

No. They won't have one guy hitting 40 this year.

Yes, they can cut down the Ks. But there will be slumps where some players look just as bad as last year.

 

May the slumps be short and the dingers be long.

[Platoon]

I've got my heart set on "sequencing."

I am so glad the metrics guys came up with the term "sequencing"! Before they did that all we had to rely on was Dumb A*^ Luck.

[gil4]

 

I am so glad the metrics guys came up with the term "sequencing"! Before they did that all we had to rely on was Dumb A*^ Luck.

So now we're going to rely on dumb a** sequencing instead? 

(Criticize that which you don't understand is a dangerous policy, but it's all I've got on this one. Anyone want to tell me what we're talking about?)

[Bill Brown69]

I will give it a shot

 

IF Defense -5 

OF Defense +35 You must have forget how awful last year really was. If Grossman spends 2/3 of the year on the DL then +50.  

Catching  +20 Zuke was bad

Starters +60 And that number still says it is not a good rotation, just not historically bad

Relievers +20 

Hitters   +40  This team will score a lot.

 

That equals a -2 run differential or a +13 if Grossman is on the DL. 81-84 wins! Now I am going to spend at least this week enjoying my rose colored glasses!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

To everyone that is predicting a massive drop in infield defense this season... You all realize the left side of the infield was already terrible last year, right? Even Plouffe wasn't good, posting  a -5 DRS in just 519 innings (Sano was -2 DRS in 376 innings).

 

The amount it can drop approaches the limitations of how bad an MLB player can be defensively while remaining in MLB.

[dbminn]

Good job Teflon. IMO, you underestimate some areas where I expect more improvement:

 

SP:

• Gibson pitched hurt for most of the year (after returning from DL). It was bad enough he fundamentally changed his mechanics for 2017. He's throwing well and 29 years old. I expect he'll return to 2014-2015 form (+10 to 15 runs).
• Duffey and Berrios should be better than last year. I predict that between them they will have more than 30 starts. (For stat nerds, Duffey's FIP-WAR was 15 runs lower than RA9-WAR last year. For Berrios, 12 runs lower).
• Mejia and Berrios provide better depth to start the season. Gonsalves may be ready after the all-star break.
• Hughes should be able to pitch better now that he can feel his fingers. For this guesstimate, I'll say he'll still be below average.

The bar was set awfully low during 2016. Looking at FG, it's not hard to see +40 runs from SP, even if none have a great season.

 

Hitting:

 

Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Rosario will show more than a combined +15, just based on progression. They all have enough AB under their belt to begin showing real improvement. Buxton and Rosario made strides at the end of last year and have continued down the same path in ST. I'd say +35, then subtract 10 for Dozier for +25.

 

Fielding:

 

Fangraphs shows Plouffe was really bad at 3B last year. Much worse than Sano. -10 runs looks pessimistic but I won't make any changes for it. Could be as many as +6 runs for Twins D(!). (Polanco at SS will probably take away any gains at third anyway.)

 

Net change from Teflon's prediction is +40 runs. That brings to the Twins closer to 75 wins, which is about what I expect. Injuries to key players could send the win total down quite a bit. Breakout seasons by any of the youngsters could put them closer to even. I'll live with a predicted 75.

 

 

[Blake]

 

To everyone that is predicting a massive drop in infield defense this season... You all realize the left side of the infield was already terrible last year, right? Even Plouffe wasn't good, posting  a -5 DRS in just 519 innings (Sano was -2 DRS in 376 innings).

 

The amount it can drop approaches the limitations of how bad an MLB player can be defensively while remaining in MLB.

I'm to the point I'll be happy if everyone makes the plays their supposed to and once in a while turning in a defensive gem.

 

I guess I'm saying steady over flashy.

[Platoon]

This team will either hit well enough as is constructed,or will learn to. If they don't, the future is really bleak. That's why my bench would be defensive in nature. I do not think enough emphasis can be placed on a decent OF. Making RG the fourth one would border on FO malpractice.

[ashbury]

That's why my bench would be defensive in nature.

Depends in some part on whether you forecast this team playing from behind, or with a lead, in late innings.