Dozier to the Cubs make some sense for both teams?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Yes, I know that the Cubs just won the WS, but teams can always stand to improve their rosters. After looking at all the different teams out there, I was intrigued by the fit that Dozier would be for the Cubs and the pieces they have to offer the Twins. 

 

Dozier makes the Cubs stronger by improving there everyday 2B situation. Zobrist would still serve as the super-utility  guy spelling Dozier vs some RHP and Schwarber in LF vs some LHP. 

 

The package I would want form the Cubs would be Baez, to play SS for us, so that we can move Polanco to 2B. Then, maybe some form of Clfton RHP, and maybe Happ 2B/LF...but not likely to get him along with the first two. They have other arms and bats that would be intriguing to include with Baez and Clifton. Baez plays a good SS and has some pop, and still has plenty of potential left. 

 

 

 

This makes the Cubs starting lineup better, and makes the Twins infield defense better and younger by moving Polanco to 2B and Baez to SS- Thoughts? 

[Linus]

Allright boys and girls how many posts can we reach?

[mickeymental]

it's sure to happen within 24 hours.

[jimmer]

Yes, I know that the Cubs just won the WS, but teams can always stand to improve their rosters. After looking at all the different teams out there, I was intrigued by the fit that Dozier would be for the Cubs and the pieces they have to offer the Twins.

 

Dozier makes the Cubs stronger by improving there everyday 2B situation. Zobrist would still serve as the super-utility guy spelling Dozier vs some RHP and Schwarber in LF vs some LHP.

 

The package I would want form the Cubs would be Baez, to play SS for us, so that we can move Polanco to 2B. Then, maybe some form of Clfton RHP, and maybe Happ 2B/LF...but not likely to get him along with the first two. They have other arms and bats that would be intriguing to include with Baez and Clifton. Baez plays a good SS and has some pop, and still has plenty of potential left.

 

 

 

This makes the Cubs starting lineup better, and makes the Twins infield defense better and younger by moving Polanco to 2B and Baez to SS- Thoughts?

i doubt the cubs would move Baez for Dozier straight up much less adding players. I like it from our standpoint.

[Doomtints]

I don't think the Cubs would be interested. They have a top defender/average hitter (with some pop) at 2B. It worked last year, so why change?

 

The Cubs rival Cardinals could use Dozier and may look at that near the deadline if it looks like they will be fighting it out until the end.

[DaveW]

FWIW: pinged my infamous source, they said "Can't see the Cubs being a fit, Cubs are absolutely stacked for next several years and have no need to move any long term assets"

[jimmer]

FWIW: pinged my infamous source, they said "Can't see the Cubs being a fit, Cubs are absolutely stacked for next several years and have no need to move any long term assets"

so, basically, what most everyone who follows the game decently already thought/knew? :-)

[DaveW]

 

so, basically, what most everyone who follows the game decently already thought/knew? :-)

Yeah, I mean it isn't earth shattering news or anything

I think it's pretty much a done deal that Dozier is a Twin until June at least.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

FWIW: pinged my infamous source, they said "Can't see the Cubs being a fit, Cubs are absolutely stacked for next several years and have no need to move any long term assets"

Sure, but that also means that they can afford to upgrade to Dozier for the short term improvement, while still having depth now and the future. They can also afford to extend Dozier if they wish. His bat would also play well there.

 

[DaveW]

 

Sure, but that also means that they can afford to upgrade to Dozier for the short term improvement, while still having depth now and the future. They can also afford to extend Dozier if they wish. His bat would also play well there.

This is very true. I just doubt Theo wants to give up what it will take at this point, the Twins have a pretty high asking price for Dozier "allegedly" 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This is very true. I just doubt Theo wants to give up what it will take at this point, the Twins have a pretty high asking price for Dozier "allegedly" 

I get it isn't a likely situation. Just that I believe that it makes both teams better now and in the future. They would still have Zobrist and Happ coming up, and they have several mid-roration prospect arms to offer. They prefer to buy SP in FA anyway. Baez can move to SS for us and make our defense better, where he is not a SS of them. Just saying it is something I feel would make both teams better now and later.

[DaveW]

 

I get it isn't a likely situation. Just that I believe that it makes both teams better now and in the future. They would still have Zobrist and Happ coming up, and they have several mid-roration prospect arms to offer. They prefer to buy SP in FA anyway. Baez can move to SS for us and make our defense better, where he is not a SS of them. Just saying it is something I feel would make both teams better now and later.

Agreed on that front, I would be much more comfortable trading Dozier now then later, but I also think that Dozier actually IMPROVES on his numbers from last year.

[Doomtints]

 

I get it isn't a likely situation. Just that I believe that it makes both teams better now and in the future. They would still have Zobrist and Happ coming up, and they have several mid-roration prospect arms to offer. They prefer to buy SP in FA anyway. Baez can move to SS for us and make our defense better, where he is not a SS of them. Just saying it is something I feel would make both teams better now and later.

 

I dunno man. When you win the WS, I would think you make as few changes as possible. They erred in letting Dexter Fowler go, but overall the Cubs have done a good job this offseason.

[Thrylos]

I'd place the likelihood of Baez putting better numbers than Dozier in 2017 at about 75%.

 

No way the Cubs are doing this.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'd place the likelihood of Baez putting better numbers than Dozier in 2017 at about 75%.

 

No way the Cubs are doing this.

 

Wow, that's a crazy reach.

 

(But first, yeah no way the Cubs do this. If they move Baez it will be for young pitching, not for a late 20s hitter due an extension in two years. Why trade MLB-ready upside for a proven veteran when your team is stacked?)

 

And we're back to the crazy reach. Javy Baez is a fun guy with some Q factor from the playoffs but you clearly haven't looked at his stats. He didn't even put up a 100 OPS+ in 2016 and he struck out in 24% of his plate appearances while walking 3.3% of the time. (His number are actually incredibly close to Eddie Rosario's - not the best comp right now, even with the positional help of 2B vs LF.)  Baez may turn into a great player someday but he's nowhere near Dozier's level now.

 

Over the past three years Dozier has a 118 OPS+ with much better pop and a K-rate of 19.7% and walk rate of 10%. He's hit over 20 HR three years running with 40+ last year obviously. Dozier even stole more bases at a better clip than Baez (side note: Dozier had a really nice 90% steal rate last year on 20 attempts - not something you hear much about). Brian Dozier will likely regress a bit but he's a good bet to put up some nice numbers in a Twins lineup that provides some protection but looks to be trailing in a good number of games.

 

Javy Baez's defense may make him a better player fairly soon but from a numbers POV, this 75% assertion is pure folly. I'd say Baez has a less than 10% chance to have better numbers that Dozier this year. Even with a big jump by Baez and a regression by Dozier, Baez would likely just pull even. Baez is a young guy with a lot of talent but a lot of things to work out. Dozier is a guy in his prime who may have just had his career year but is a solid MLB veteran.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Agreed on that front, I would be much more comfortable trading Dozier now then later, but I also think that Dozier actually IMPROVES on his numbers from last year.

 

Improves...in what way? Improving on last year's numbers would be near record-setting and MVP frontrunner territory. That's difficult to project for anyone without an extensive track record of performances like that. I could maybe see improved consistency & peripherals, but not necessarily his season-ending stats.

 

Personally, I don't see Dozier getting traded at all this year barring a league-wide injury epidemic at the position. We simply won't get the premium return we want. There are too many options that teams can go get and plug in due to the glut of 2nd basemen across the league right now. It's a luxury for most non-competitive teams to carry a great second basemen and someone would happily flip a guy to a contender for less than the Twins would need.

[Doomtints]

If Dozier improves upon last year, then keeping him might be better than trading him. He will be hitting MVP years as the young Twins rebuild starts to take shape.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I dunno man. When you win the WS, I would think you make as few changes as possible. They erred in letting Dexter Fowler go, but overall the Cubs have done a good job this offseason.

 

Strongly disagree. Fowler is a very good player but he's not a great player and that contract was huge - 5 years $82 million. He'll be 31 to start the season and last year represents a career year (840 OPS that's likely to sink back closer to 800 - his career is 778 and that's buoyed by six years in Colorado). Even if Fowler keeps it up the first two years of the contract, by the end he'll be 45 and will have moved off CF into a corner where those numbers are way less palatable as his skill set inevitably erodes. I was actually more surprised that the usually sound Cardinals made the deal - it's the kind of deal they've by and large avoided in the past.

The Cubs have good internal options too. Heyward can move over to CF (where his bat struggles are less magnified) while Zobrist and Schwarber man the corner OF spots. For 4th OF (and days the Cubs move Schwarber to C or Zobrist to DH) the Cubs have a nice platoon of John Jay and Almora – a cagy vet and a young guy with upside. That’s a really nice OF and one that actually gets crowded by Fowler being around.

 

Good teams know how to let non-core guys go while keeping momentum and message going (e.g. Spurs). Fowler got more expensive than he was worth and he never really lined up with the position player peak of the Cubs. I imagine the Cubs will have a similar decision next year if Arrieta seems very good and not great this year. They’ve got a window of 8-10 years and gotta know when to hold, know when to fold em.

[Doomtints]

 

Strongly disagree. Fowler is a very good player but he's not a great player and that contract was huge - 5 years $82 million. He'll be 31 to start the season and last year represents a career year (840 OPS that's likely to sink back closer to 800 - his career is 778 and that's buoyed by six years in Colorado). Even if Fowler keeps it up the first two years of the contract, by the end he'll be 45 and will have moved off CF into a corner where those numbers are way less palatable as his skill set inevitably erodes. I was actually more surprised that the usually sound Cardinals made the deal - it's the kind of deal they've by and large avoided in the past.

 

Fowler is one of those rare guys who seems to bring things to the table that don't show up in the metrics. I'm sold on him. I understand completely why some people would not be.

 

This means that, to me, you can't pull out the stat sheet and tell me he sucks. I'll never buy it.

[Dantes929]

 

Improves...in what way? Improving on last year's numbers would be near record-setting and MVP frontrunner territory. That's difficult to project for anyone without an extensive track record of performances like that. I could maybe see improved consistency & peripherals, but not necessarily his season-ending stats.

 

Personally, I don't see Dozier getting traded at all this year barring a league-wide injury epidemic at the position. We simply won't get the premium return we want. There are too many options that teams can go get and plug in due to the glut of 2nd basemen across the league right now. It's a luxury for most non-competitive teams to carry a great second basemen and someone would happily flip a guy to a contender for less than the Twins would need.

Too hard to predict but a year ago Dozier was a one dimensional hitter that pitchers had appeared to figure out.   He worked on being a more complete hitter with early dismal results but then it clicked.    IMO, he is now in a better position to be MVP caliber than he was last year at this time to be a 40 or even 25 home runs guy.   

[Taildragger8791]

 

Too hard to predict but a year ago Dozier was a one dimensional hitter that pitchers had appeared to figure out.   He worked on being a more complete hitter with early dismal results but then it clicked.    IMO, he is now in a better position to be MVP caliber than he was last year at this time to be a 40 or even 25 home runs guy.   

 

I understand all that. But it's one thing to project a breakout year for a guy and a whole other thing to project becoming an all-time great 2B, which is the territory you'd be dipping into. It's an extremely high expectation that isn't even fair to the player.

[Brandon Warne]

The short answer is no.

The longer answer is no, sir.

[USAFChief]

 

I'd place the likelihood of Baez putting better numbers than Dozier in 2017 at about 75%.

 

 

Tell ya what...I don't even need the 3-1 you think would be fair.

 

Give me 2-1. I'll take Dozier.  My six pack of a beverage of your choice against your two six packs of a beverage of my choice.  

 

Deal?

[Thrylos]

 

Tell ya what...I don't even need the 3-1 you think would be fair.

 

Give me 2-1. I'll take Dozier.  My six pack of a beverage of your choice against your two six packs of a beverage of my choice.  

 

Deal?

 

Deal.  Based of bWAR. Injuries nullify the deal

[Brandon Warne]

I don't know that Dozier has ever been a one-dimensional hitter -- at least not since his breakout. The walk rate adds a second dimension. 

 

One-dimensional should be reserved for guys like....I don't know. Oswaldo Arcia? 

[Thrylos]

 

I don't know that Dozier has ever been a one-dimensional hitter -- at least not since his breakout. The walk rate adds a second dimension.

 

One-dimensional should be reserved for guys like....I don't know. Oswaldo Arcia?

 

90th best in the majors among hitters with 400+ PA in 2016...

 

Been around .075 or so isoD the last few years.  Difference?  BABIP.  .280ish this season vs .260ish previously , pushed the BA at .268 from ~.240 the previous years getting that OBP to .340 instead to .310 territory.    Sustainable?  We'll find out.

 

Footnote:  Oswaldo Arcia and Brian Dozier had identical BB%, 8.8, with the Twins last season.

[jimmer]

Baez has 5 years of control left.  He's an elite defender. He can play all over the place (which is valuable for a manager like Maddon) and he's only 24. Theo will have all of Javier's peak years.  2.7 WAR at 23 with only 450 PA.

 

No chance Theo would trade a player like that for 2 years of Dozier (who just had a career year).

[Bob Sacamento]

At this point, the only way Baez gets moved is for a cost controlled starting pitcher something the Twins do not have.  Baez will make the league minimum for the next two years and then three years of arbitration, that's five years of team control. Baez just turned 24, plays SS, 2B, and 3B at a gold glove level and can even is an emergency catcher, Yes, Baez has his warts, swings at pitches out of the zone being the biggest concern but that can be remedied at this stage/age especially considering his power and bat speed.  The Cubs won't do Dozier straight up for Baez, Brian's not going back to SS or 3B which is highly valued by Maddon.

 

My guess for WAR 2017:

 

Dozier 3.5

Baez 2.7

[jimmer]

 

My guess for WAR 2017:

 

Dozier 3.5

Baez 2.7

My guess for 2017 WAR for those two is

 

Baez: 3.3.

Dozier 3.9.

 

[sorney]

 

The short answer is no.

The longer answer is no, sir.

You are wrong.

The short answer is no.

The longer answer is noooooooooo.