Keith Law System Ranks

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I believe I read somewhere, maybe on this thread, that Fangraphs had rated the Twins farm system in the bottom 10.  I haven't seen that.

 

I said it, but I could be mistaken here.  I seem to remember that podcast a couple weeks back where they said as much.  That's what I was thinking of when I wrote it.

[Doomtints]

If Law describes what he ranks as the 11th best farm system as a system that has a lot of mid-level players but zero future stars, the 12th-30th ranked teams must be real dumpster fires. This would immediately upgrade the Twins "good but uninteresting" players significantly if the rest of the market is so terrible. Law contradicted himself a bit by ranking the Twins as high as 11.

 

However, regardless of his #11 ranking, what he is saying about the Twins is true and most scouts agree. The Twins have a lot of players who could crack the bigs, but have no obvious difference maker in the pipeline.

 

The lack of exciting talent in the minors for the Twins isn't the big deal that it sounds like. The Twins just need to start feeding the organization on both ends again, chasing after both interesting MLB veterans and continuing to develop and acquire minor league players. 

[drjim]

Based on other comments, I think Law really values depth in making his rankings. Twins have that.

[Brandon Warne]

Not having a future stud tells me they need(ed) to get ready to get at least one very good player in FA. 

 

I favored Heyward -- shoot me, I can handle it -- but I think they'll have to find one really good player to supplement Buxton and Sano in FA.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Anonymous: Of all your farm system rankings, name a couple of systems that have the best group of reliever prospects.

 

Klaw: Twins come to mind immediately. Chargois, Reed, Melotakis, Burdi if healthy, etc.

And maybe Jay as well. Add Rogers and Duffey (who I think should play up as a reliever) and/or maybe Hildenberger (under the radar) and you have yourself a potentially killer bullpen.

[darin617]

So if the Twins are rated #11 now doesn't that mean they have practically failed in the draft with all the high picks they had in the last few years?

 

I understand with Buxton & Berrios off the prospect list they would move down. It just shows that hopefully the new brass has some better ideas with the upcoming draft.

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

And maybe Jay as well. Add Rogers and Duffey (who I think should play up as a reliever) and/or maybe Hildenberger (under the radar) and you have yourself a potentially killer bullpen.

 

That's kind of what I've been thinking. I'm high on Hildenberger, et al, and wonder if the Twins can use a stocked bullpen to trade for pitchers who look promising in A+ or AA as a way of bringing in some potential top of the rotation pitchers (none of whom are a 'lock', of course).

 

Right now I feel that all we have that might be really good is Romero.

[DocBauer]

Have you read the article on Gordon? I know he's a friend and teammate and not a scout or personnel director, but I found it interesting the high praise Gordon had for Felix Jorge. We talk a lot about Jay and Stewart and Romero and others, and it seems we sort of forget about or dismiss Jorge for whatever reason. But Gordon's opinion, to me, was certainly interesting.

[diehardtwinsfan]

"Not a lot of future stars" doesn't mean someone couldn't take that step forward and become a future star. It is just an honest assessment that there are a lot of question marks with their top pieces.  That's where that depth piece comes in.  Some of it is just looking at the system and going "hey, there's a lot of guys here good enough to make the majors."  But setting that aside, there's a lot of guys could just as easily put themselves on that future star list.  Off the top of my head:  Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Romero, Thorpe, Javier, and Gordon are all guys who people could be swooning over next year at this time.  Plus there's #1 overall and huge boatload of raw and talented guys in the low minors.  Now will they all?  Probably not.  But it's certainly not dire. 

[DocBauer]

"Not a lot of future stars" doesn't mean someone couldn't take that step forward and become a future star. It is just an honest assessment that there are a lot of question marks with their top pieces.  That's where that depth piece comes in.  Some of it is just looking at the system and going "hey, there's a lot of guys here good enough to make the majors."  But setting that aside, there's a lot of guys could just as easily put themselves on that future star list.  Off the top of my head:  Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Romero, Thorpe, Javier, and Gordon are all guys who people could be swooning over next year at this time.  Plus there's #1 overall and huge boatload of raw and talented guys in the low minors.  Now will they all?  Probably not.  But it's certainly not dire.

 

Agree 100%! As I stated in an earlier post, depth means more opportunity for someone to step forward to be even better than previously "speculated". Take Gonsalves for example. He's still quite young, LH, seems to have a good knack for simply knowing how to pitch, and has proven himself at every level. He still needs to refine his breaking stuff more, from all reports, but has a very nice change. He's probably not done yet filling out a bit more, getting a bit stronger, and what if his FB goes up another tick or two along with a better breaking ball?

 

There are ebbs and flows to a milb system. Top guys graduate, as they have started to do with the Twins. Your rankings will naturally slip a bit when they do, awaiting the next wave of young guys to take a step up. I feel very good about the depth in the system and this high of a ranking right now.

[gunnarthor]

 

So if the Twins are rated #11 now doesn't that mean they have practically failed in the draft with all the high picks they had in the last few years?

 

 

It's probably a loaded question but here are my thoughts - first, the Twins have graduated the 2012 draft class (five players made the majors - Buxton, Berrios, Duffey, Rogers and Chargois) and Melotakis might still make it.  So I think they aced that draft. 

 

So the 2013-2016 drafts are what we're discussing where we had the 4th, 5th, 6th and 15 picks (IIRC).  I loved the 2016 draft and Kiriloff is pretty well regarded prospect but that whole class is pretty far away and very young - I think they drafted four 17 year olds.  So the real issue is the 2013-2015 drafts.

 

The first round picks - Stewart, Gordon and Jay - were all decent picks at the time so I don't have problems with any of them. And all three have been subjects of lots of discussion here.  The 2013 draft seems (to me) the most sensible draft - Stewart was a good pick at #4 and they did a nice job of switching between young HS high ceiling talent (Gonsalves, Naveretto) and safe college floor (Eades, Garver, Slegers).  And only 15 of the 39 first round picks have even made the majors yet, so it's probably too early to bury this draft class but it's pretty clear that they don't have a future ace or MVP in it.  It looked better at the time but it could still hold up - Gonsalves and Stewart were two of the youngest pitchers in AA last year, Garver looks like a low-end starter or strong back up ML catcher.

 

2014 looks worse.  The first two picks - Gordon and Burdi - could absolutely save this draft but Burdi's been hurt.  I think the world of Gordon and think he's in the Kepler range of prospects but after those two, the Twins drafted 6 or 7 relievers.  I understand the strategy but was never in favor of it.  It doesn't seem like it's worked (and Deron Johnson has been promoted out of this role) but Jake Reed could be a strong bullpen arm.  But this wasn't a great draft.  And, in fairness, it wasn't a particularly strong draft class so maybe the Twins thought velocity - even if it's just relievers - was the way to go.  But this is probably a good reminder on how tough drafts are.  Burdi was a great second round pick (most mocks had him going in the first round) but injuries are a real problem. 

 

2015 was the Jay draft.  Jay was a controversial pick and then the Twins didn't pick again until #73 (who didn't even sign).  But they did a better job of mixing up their picks and took Blankenhorn and Cabbage in the third round.  Considering they didn't have a second round pick, the #6 pick was really important.  I think if you feel that Jay can start, you're ok with this draft (and the system) but if you think he's another reliever (even a top closer) you're pretty down on this one.  I'm torn but I liked the Jay pick - I wanted the Twins to take Daz Cameron - and there wasn't an obvious choice at 6.  I think the Twins were linked to guys like Allard, Stephenson and Fullmer a lot, as well.

 

So my thoughts are that the Twins drafts from 2013-2016 are more or less about what they should have been, depending on how you view drafts, with the 2014 draft being the weakest.  They haven't (as of yet) had a late round player break out (but that's not surprising since we don't usually know we have a Dozier for a few years) and their first round picks seem to not approach their ceilings but will be MLers.  The Twins gave up one second round pick in there to sign Santana, as well.  But they've managed to draft some depth and each of these drafts could give the Twins two major league caliber starter, which is pretty good for a draft class.  So I think the thoughts of Klaw and the fangraphs writer are fairly accurate - they don't have an ace or future MVP in the system but it's a very deep system. It's also worth remembering that this is a very young group of prospects. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"Not a lot of future stars" doesn't mean someone couldn't take that step forward and become a future star. It is just an honest assessment that there are a lot of question marks with their top pieces.  That's where that depth piece comes in.  Some of it is just looking at the system and going "hey, there's a lot of guys here good enough to make the majors."  But setting that aside, there's a lot of guys could just as easily put themselves on that future star list.  Off the top of my head:  Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, Romero, Thorpe, Javier, and Gordon are all guys who people could be swooning over next year at this time.  Plus there's #1 overall and huge boatload of raw and talented guys in the low minors.  Now will they all?  Probably not.  But it's certainly not dire. 

Yeah. It's important to remember that just as good prospects can fail (Alex Meyer), low level prospects with talent can come out of nowhere and dominate (Brian Dozier).

 

The Twins have a lot of interesting prospects. Many will wash out but a few could step up and emerge as top 100 guys in a hurry (Lewis Thorpe springs to mind, along with an improved Tyler Jay or a dominant season from Gordon as he puts it together).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's probably a loaded question but here are my thoughts - first, the Twins have graduated the 2012 draft class (five players made the majors - Buxton, Berrios, Duffey, Rogers and Chargois) and Melotakis might still make it.  So I think they aced that draft. 

 

So the 2013-2016 drafts are what we're discussing where we had the 4th, 5th, 6th and 15 picks (IIRC).  I loved the 2016 draft and Kiriloff is pretty well regarded prospect but that whole class is pretty far away and very young - I think they drafted four 17 year olds.  So the real issue is the 2013-2015 drafts.

 

The first round picks - Stewart, Gordon and Jay - were all decent picks at the time so I don't have problems with any of them. And all three have been subjects of lots of discussion here.  The 2013 draft seems (to me) the most sensible draft - Stewart was a good pick at #4 and they did a nice job of switching between young HS high ceiling talent (Gonsalves, Naveretto) and safe college floor (Eades, Garver, Slegers).  And only 15 of the 39 first round picks have even made the majors yet, so it's probably too early to bury this draft class but it's pretty clear that they don't have a future ace or MVP in it.  It looked better at the time but it could still hold up - Gonsalves and Stewart were two of the youngest pitchers in AA last year, Garver looks like a low-end starter or strong back up ML catcher.

 

2014 looks worse.  The first two picks - Gordon and Burdi - could absolutely save this draft but Burdi's been hurt.  I think the world of Gordon and think he's in the Kepler range of prospects but after those two, the Twins drafted 6 or 7 relievers.  I understand the strategy but was never in favor of it.  It doesn't seem like it's worked (and Deron Johnson has been promoted out of this role) but Jake Reed could be a strong bullpen arm.  But this wasn't a great draft.  And, in fairness, it wasn't a particularly strong draft class so maybe the Twins thought velocity - even if it's just relievers - was the way to go.  But this is probably a good reminder on how tough drafts are.  Burdi was a great second round pick (most mocks had him going in the first round) but injuries are a real problem. 

 

2015 was the Jay draft.  Jay was a controversial pick and then the Twins didn't pick again until #73 (who didn't even sign).  But they did a better job of mixing up their picks and took Blankenhorn and Cabbage in the third round.  Considering they didn't have a second round pick, the #6 pick was really important.  I think if you feel that Jay can start, you're ok with this draft (and the system) but if you think he's another reliever (even a top closer) you're pretty down on this one.  I'm torn but I liked the Jay pick - I wanted the Twins to take Daz Cameron - and there wasn't an obvious choice at 6.  I think the Twins were linked to guys like Allard, Stephenson and Fullmer a lot, as well.

 

So my thoughts are that the Twins drafts from 2013-2016 are more or less about what they should have been, depending on how you view drafts, with the 2014 draft being the weakest.  They haven't (as of yet) had a late round player break out (but that's not surprising since we don't usually know we have a Dozier for a few years) and their first round picks seem to not approach their ceilings but will be MLers.  The Twins gave up one second round pick in there to sign Santana, as well.  But they've managed to draft some depth and each of these drafts could give the Twins two major league caliber starter, which is pretty good for a draft class.  So I think the thoughts of Klaw and the fangraphs writer are fairly accurate - they don't have an ace or future MVP in the system but it's a very deep system. It's also worth remembering that this is a very young group of prospects. 

 

Very well said. 

 

What I find funny is that at the time 2012 was regarded as a week draft and 2014 a strong one... kind of funny how you look back and rethink that.  I think Allard was one of my big names for the 2015 draft, though to be fair, he fell pretty far.  I don't remember why.  There really wasn't a whole lot floating around Jay other than that he was one of those options at that pick.  Ace upside, but with far more question marks then you wanted out of a 1st rounder.  That was one of those drafts where in all honesty, we had no idea who the Twins would draft.  The same couldn't be said for Gordon and Stewart.  They were pretty much the best of what was left in terms of ceiling. 

[drjim]

Considering how the drafts have played out, Stewart and Gordon seem acceptable to me. What is really going to haunt the Twins is taking Jay when Benintendi was snapped up with the next pick. Missing out on college bats that good and advanced for the chance to convert a reliever into a starter is a huge miss. But overall, I think the drafts have not really been a problem.

 

What has really hurt the Twins is they have really not been aggressive in trading assets for prospects and after 2009 they have not gone all that big in the international market. Really not fully taking advantage of two avenues to talent procurement. Dozier situation aside, I think this will be the most significant upgrade with the new front office - much more aggressive in talent acquisition from all sources.

 

 

[drjim]

Law has started his Top 100. 81-100 today:

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6172

 

87. Kohl Stewart

91. Stephen Gonsalves

97. Alex Kiriloff

 

Stubbornly remains the high man on Stewart. I suspect other lists will have Kiriloff higher than Law.

[gunnarthor]

 

Law has started his Top 100. 81-100 today:

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6172

 

87. Kohl Stewart

91. Stephen Gonsalves

97. Alex Kiriloff

 

Stubbornly remains the high man on Stewart. I suspect other lists will have Kiriloff higher than Law.

Thanks for the post.  Any Dodgers in that range?  

 

As for Stewart, I don't think arguing about his ranking matters much.  We'll know a lot more after this season.  (Admittedly, I said the same thing last year).  

[drjim]

 

Thanks for the post.  Any Dodgers in that range?  

 

As for Stewart, I don't think arguing about his ranking matters much.  We'll know a lot more after this season.  (Admittedly, I said the same thing last year).  

 

No Dodgers

[Mike Sixel]

 

Considering how the drafts have played out, Stewart and Gordon seem acceptable to me. What is really going to haunt the Twins is taking Jay when Benintendi was snapped up with the next pick. Missing out on college bats that good and advanced for the chance to convert a reliever into a starter is a huge miss. But overall, I think the drafts have not really been a problem.

 

What has really hurt the Twins is they have really not been aggressive in trading assets for prospects and after 2009 they have not gone all that big in the international market. Really not fully taking advantage of two avenues to talent procurement. Dozier situation aside, I think this will be the most significant upgrade with the new front office - much more aggressive in talent acquisition from all sources.

 

Trea Turner, starring in the majors...when was he taken? I think that pick is hurting right now also, frankly. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Trea Turner, starring in the majors...when was he taken? I think that pick is hurting right now also, frankly. 

Yeah, Turner is a good pick in hindsight - much like Trout.  But Turner was pretty consistently considered a tier below and the discussion here compared him a lot to Levi Micheal.  I do remember the Twins being linked to him in a "they worked him out" sorta way but there didn't seem to be a lot more than that.  Pretty much every draft had Gordon well above him.  And that's kind of the risk you get when you draft HS kids.  Gordon will be 21 next season and in AA.  That's the same age Turner was drafted.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, Turner is a good pick in hindsight - much like Trout.  But Turner was pretty consistently considered a tier below and the discussion here compared him a lot to Levi Micheal.  I do remember the Twins being linked to him in a "they worked him out" sorta way but there didn't seem to be a lot more than that.  Pretty much every draft had Gordon well above him.  And that's kind of the risk you get when you draft HS kids.  Gordon will be 21 next season and in AA.  That's the same age Turner was drafted.

 

Agreed, I think Turner is a great example that if you can really hit at a high level in college, that should not be ignored. He had a "down" senior year, IIRC, but wasn't he hurt some?

 

I was merely pointing out that they just haven't really HIT on a pick in the last 5 years. Until Buxton can hit, and / or someone can pitch, it looks pretty "meh", given where they picked. Probably acceptable, but no big WINS yet. They need some wins, badly.

[gunnarthor]

 

Agreed, I think Turner is a great example that if you can really hit at a high level in college, that should not be ignored. He had a "down" senior year, IIRC, but wasn't he hurt some?

 

I was merely pointing out that they just haven't really HIT on a pick in the last 5 years. Until Buxton can hit, and / or someone can pitch, it looks pretty "meh", given where they picked. Probably acceptable, but no big WINS yet. They need some wins, badly.

It's probably worth pointing out that the 2013-2015 draft classes haven't produced a hit yet that the Twins could have drafted.  The best MLers (so far) from those drafts have been Turner, Tim Anderson, Brandon Finnigan and Sean Manaea.  Obviously, there are a lot of highly ranked guys from those drafts in the minors although I can't think of any low round guys who are currently highly ranked from those drafts (but there could be some).  And those highly ranked players include - depending on the list - Twins players.

 

As for hits in general, I think Berrios at 32 (or whatever) would probably qualify.  And Buxton will be fine.

[drjim]

 

Trea Turner, starring in the majors...when was he taken? I think that pick is hurting right now also, frankly. 

 

Hurting at this exact moment, sure, but far from ready to say it will end up being a negative overall.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hurting at this exact moment, sure, but far from ready to say it will end up being a negative overall.

 

which I never said......

[Vanimal46]

gunnarthor broke down the recent drafts very well. 2012 class was great, 2013 has a couple of good players, 2014 was the reliever draft - ugh. Dr. Jim also hit it on the head with the Twins' biggest issue, that being not trading off assets for prospects.... 

Given the way the Twins operate, where their primary focus is drafting to improve the system, they need to have a 2012 draft every other year to maintain a top 10 system. I hope the new regime takes advantage of trading assets when they're out of contention and exploring other avenues to keep the minor leagues strong.