Sad News on the Pitching Front: May out for Season

[KirbyDome89]

 

 

At the time of the May and Meyer trades, I read several scouting reports on both of them and what I read made it look like both of them were going to be relievers.  Twins fans seem to be the only people around hoping for more, seeing more than what is really there.  Maybe that's because the Twins gave up so much to get them, maybe that's because the franchise needed both of them to be better than what the scouts saw.  I don't know.  But at the end of the day, neither of them have worked out to be starters, and it's not surprising to me at all based on what analysts not tied to the Twins have been saying since day one.

 

For what it's worth, I always pegged May as the better of the two.  And so far that's right.  But he's a bullpen arm, and hopefully someday a decent one.

You believed they would be relievers based on the scouting, or the report stated they would likely wind up as bullpen pieces? I can see relief work listed as their floor but I don't recall reading anything about either of them here on TD or elsewhere that didn't list them as starting rotation pieces. The Twins don't have a reputation for making savvy transactions but I really doubt they were so far in the dark as to the talent level of both prospects that they were the only group that saw either as potential starting pitchers. 

 

I wouldn't give up on May as a starter just yet. He wasn't anything to write home about in 14' but he was improving in 2015 and actually had a really good June before the Twins moved him to the pen. 

[Doomtints]

 

You believed they would be relievers based on the scouting, or the report stated they would likely wind up as bullpen pieces? I can see relief work listed as their floor but I don't recall reading anything about either of them here on TD or elsewhere that didn't list them as starting rotation pieces. The Twins don't have a reputation for making savvy transactions but I really doubt they were so far in the dark as to the talent level of both prospects that they were the only group that saw either as potential starting pitchers. 

 

I wouldn't give up on May as a starter just yet. He wasn't anything to write home about in 14' but he was improving in 2015 and actually had a really good June before the Twins moved him to the pen. 

 

Independent scouting reports on Meyer said stuff like this:  His ceiling is a middle-of-rotation guy if he can figure out his control problems.  However his strange delivery makes that unlikely.  He struggled in college.  He could end up being a closer, but likely he's a good set up man.  

 

Twins fans on Meyer:  He's an ace.

 

Independent scouting reports on May said stuff like this:  He has a good fastball but his secondary pitches suffer from control issues.  He struggled in college.  He has a ceiling of being an above-average starter but his delivery needs correction.  If he can figure out his control issues he could be a guy who can go deep into games, though he may never have spectacular numbers.  

 

Twins fans on May:  He's an ace.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Independent scouting reports on Meyer said stuff like this:  His ceiling is a middle-of-rotation guy if he can figure out his control problems.  However his strange delivery makes that unlikely.  He struggled in college.  He could end up being a closer, but likely he's a good set up man.  

 

Twins fans on Meyer:  He's an ace.

Several people were higher on Meyer than that.

 

4) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B+: Hard-thrower pitched effectively in Double-A, although a shoulder injury caused him to miss two months. Healthy now, should be ready for major league trial in 2014, projects as number two starter if everything works out with his arm. ETA: 2014.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014

[jimmer]

 

Independent scouting reports on Meyer said stuff like this:  His ceiling is a middle-of-rotation guy if he can figure out his control problems.  However his strange delivery makes that unlikely.  He struggled in college.  He could end up being a closer, but likely he's a good set up man.  

 

Twins fans on Meyer:  He's an ace.

 

Independent scouting reports on May said stuff like this:  He has a good fastball but his secondary pitches suffer from control issues.  He struggled in college.  He has a ceiling of being an above-average starter but his delivery needs correction.  If he can figure out his control issues he could be a guy who can go deep into games, though he may never have spectacular numbers.  

 

Twins fans on May:  He's an ace.

I imagine TR also thought Meyer had Ace, or #2, stuff or trading Span for him would have seemed, um, sillier than it turned out to be.

 

I can't remember even the most optimistic saying May would be an ace. That includes fans.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I can't remember even the most optimistic saying May would be an ace.

Nope. To quote Sickels again:

 

12) Trevor May, RHP, Grade C+/B-: Hard-thrower acquired from Phillies for Ben Revere has had two erratic Double-A seasons, collecting plenty of strikeouts but with wobbly command. Could still develop into a rotation workhorse or perhaps a dominant reliever. ETA: late 2014.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014

 

That was pretty much my take on May since day one. He *might* have had the ability to top out as a middling #2 starter but his likely ceiling was always mid-rotation with a strong innings count. I never heard anyone seriously use the word "ace" in reference to May.

[Thrylos]

 

Independent scouting reports on Meyer said stuff like this:  His ceiling is a middle-of-rotation guy if he can figure out his control problems.  However his strange delivery makes that unlikely.  He struggled in college.  He could end up being a closer, but likely he's a good set up man.  

 

Twins fans on Meyer:  He's an ace.

 

Independent scouting reports on May said stuff like this:  He has a good fastball but his secondary pitches suffer from control issues.  He struggled in college.  He has a ceiling of being an above-average starter but his delivery needs correction.  If he can figure out his control issues he could be a guy who can go deep into games, though he may never have spectacular numbers.  

 

Twins fans on May:  He's an ace.

 

 

Here are a few non-Twins scouting reports on Meyer at the time of the trade or thereabouts, with quotes from there:

 

Number 1: "He has the makings of a true top-of-the-rotation starter."

 

Number 2: "his ceiling is phenomenal and he has all of the tools to develop in to a number-one starter in the MLB. He's isn't a projection-only guy either, backing up his top prospect status with a lights out performance last year."

 

Number 3: "If his shoulder holds up he could become a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Twins rotation and has a significantly higher ceiling than anyone currently found on the big league staff."
 

Number 4: "looks the part of a potential front-of-the-rotation piece, and we could see him turn up in the Twin Cities in the second half"

 

Number 5: "If you were to create a starting pitcher from scratch it might look something like Meyer: 6-foot-9, 220 pounds, above-average to plus strikeout potential, solid or better control, and fantastic groundball rates. If he can avoid injury, Meyer could develop into a legitimate frontline starting pitcher"

 

Not sure where you got your information...

 

[Kwak]

 

I'm still bothered by the fact that we apparently couldn't get any use out of Worley, who's been a pretty effective pitcher everywhere except his stint in Minnesota. Hell, his ERA was 3 runs higher here than at any other point in his career. What the hell are the Twins doing to ruin pitchers?

The Twins are extremely anti-BB and are very pitch-count conscious. Two recent examples: last night Gibson has a 7 run lead going to the 9th and threw 106 pitches, he is replaced despite Gibson's protests that he is OK. Molitor's response is published in today's Strib; Santiago--Twins claim he "walks too many", so Hector changes and in his first four games he gets clobbered. Hector then changes back to his pitching style he used with the Angels. Result is two very effectively pitched games with two Twins' wins. This doesn't exonerate the failure of Twins' pitchers, but it does suggest that the Twins might be one of the causes of pitcher failure.

[Doomtints]

 

Several people were higher on Meyer than that.

4) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B+: Hard-thrower pitched effectively in Double-A, although a shoulder injury caused him to miss two months. Healthy now, should be ready for major league trial in 2014, projects as number two starter if everything works out with his arm. ETA: 2014.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/15/4838866/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2014

 

That article is specific to the Twins.  Look at stuff that isn't.  

[Doomtints]

 

I imagine TR also thought Meyer had Ace, or #2, stuff or trading Span for him would have seemed, um, sillier than it turned out to be.

 

I can't remember even the most optimistic saying May would be an ace. That includes fans.

 

Yeah.  I thought of editing that to say #2, but I thought people may have read it by then and I didn't want to seem snarky by editing a post after people might already be reacting to it.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That article is specific to the Twins.  Look at stuff that isn't.  

What does that matter? It's John Sickels. He's quite possibly the most respected MiLB analyst in the sport.

[Doomtints]

 

 

Not sure where you got your information...

 

Start searching Baseball Prospectus.  Scouting reports this old are all free to look at.  That's actually where I paraphrased from when writing my post.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Start searching Baseball Prospectus.  Scouting reports this old are all free to look at.  That's actually where I paraphrased from when writing my post.

Even BP wasn't consistent with Meyer. From 2014:

 

Developmental Update: Meyer is a 6-foot-9 right-hander with a big arm who has had a lot of problems in the past repeating his delivery and commanding his fastball. While Meyer is very athletic for his size, he often couldn't time his lead shoulder and hip consistently, and that caused his release point to drift. His stuff and velo have always been premium. It's a common meme in baseball that it's dangerous to give up on big pitchers as they can put it together late and make you look foolish... and indeed, 2014 has seen the former Kentucky Wildcat turn a corner. Meyer is throwing more strikes this year—low strikes. He suddenly looks the part of a potential front-of-the-rotation piece, and we could see him turn up in the Twin Cities in the second half. - Al Skorupa

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24076

[Doomtints]

 

What does that matter? It's John Sickels. He's quite possibly the most respected MiLB analyst in the sport.

 

Hey now.  I did my best not to cherry pick.  I summarized two reputable scouting reports from the seasons before the trades -- the first ones I found.  

 

I purposely avoided looking at scouting reports from later on because I didn't want to post anything clouded by hype (in either direction).  All the Sickels article shows is that he bought into the hype too.  The criticisms of Meyer are the same in both reports, but one report says he's marginal and another says he's guaranteed.  What changed in between except for some hype?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hey now.  I did my best not to cherry pick.  I summarized two reputable scouting reports from the seasons before the trades -- the first ones I found.  

 

I purposely avoided looking at scouting reports from later on because I didn't want to post anything clouded by hype (in either direction).  All the Sickels article shows is that he bought into the hype too.  The criticisms of Meyer are the same in both reports, but one report says he's marginal and another says he's guaranteed.  What changed in between except for some hype?

But you did cherry pick by discarding all the analysts who were high on Meyer, of which there were dozens.

 

And now you've discarded them again by saying they "bought into the hype".

 

Meyer was a very highly regarded prospect by scores of analysts.

 

Hell, on BP's own official list, he topped out as the #14 prospect in all of baseball in 2015. Does that scream "middle of the rotation guy or maybe a bullpen piece, tops" to you? In 2014, BP had him at #32.

 

Sometimes prospects bust. It's a reality of baseball. It doesn't mean everyone who regarded that player highly was delusional. Sometimes, guys simply don't harness their stuff or they get injured. In Meyer's case, it was a bit of both.

[Doomtints]

 

But you did cherry pick by discarding all the analysts who were high on Meyer, of which there were dozens.

 

 

 

Nope.  As I said, I picked the reports on baseball prospectus published immediately before the trades.  That's not cherry picking.  

 

You, however, are going out of your way to find reports that say otherwise.  That's cherry picking.  

 

I have already addressed why I purposely avoided 2014 and 2015 reports.  Both of them were projected to be in the majors by 2014 by the early scouting reports, so rosy reports from those years are downright silly.  You can't get away from citing later reports, I can't help that.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You, however, are going out of your way to find reports that say otherwise.  That's cherry picking.  

No, it's not. The first place I went to was John Sickels and I had no idea what his report was going to read.

 

Because it's John Sickels. If you call John Sickels cherry picking, I don't really know what to say. He's my go-to source on most prospects, as he's been doing it forever, it's all easily searchable, and he might be the most respected analyst in the sport.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And if you don't like Sickels' 2014 report, here's his October 2012 report, which is pretty much identical.

 

6) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B+: Acquired from the Nationals for Denard Span. Impressive high-ceiling arm is something that the Twins need, could develop into a number two starter if he maintains the greater mechanical consistency he showed in 2012 compared to his college days at the University of Kentucky.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/29/3568278/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2013

 

Again, lots of analysts were high on Meyer. You said outside analysts weren't high on him and that's flatly untrue.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Nothing sad about missing the next 18 games. I probably will too. C'est la vie.

[Doomtints]

 

And if you don't like Sickels' 2014 report, here's his October 2012 report, which is pretty much identical.

 

6) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B+: Acquired from the Nationals for Denard Span. Impressive high-ceiling arm is something that the Twins need, could develop into a number two starter if he maintains the greater mechanical consistency he showed in 2012 compared to his college days at the University of Kentucky.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/29/3568278/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2013

 

Again, lots of analysts were high on Meyer. You said outside analysts weren't high on him and that's flatly untrue.

 

Re-read what you just posted.  "He COULD be a #2 guy IF he performs better."  Other scouts spent fewer words on his ceiling and more on his tendencies.  

Sickels is being positive there.  I commend him for that.  

 

Sickels is fairly accessible.  Let's reach out to him and ask about Meyer's trajectory and if he is surprised by it.  Chances are he says he isn't surprised.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Re-read what you just posted.  "He COULD be a #2 guy IF he performs better."

That's... Not... What... He... Said...

 

"could develop into a number two starter if he maintains the greater mechanical consistency he showed in 2012"

[Doomtints]

I emailed a question to John asking him if he is surprised by Alex Meyer's trajectory.  I will let you know when he responds.  As his articles only talk about Meyer's ceiling, we'll soon find out his real opinion.  

 

[Craig Arko]

I suppose it would be too much to ask if Meyer stuff could go in the Meyer thread and May stuff could go in the May thread.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I suppose it would be too much to ask if Meyer stuff could go in the Meyer thread and May stuff could go in the May thread.

I have had it up to here with your "rules!"

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I suppose it would be too much to ask if Meyer stuff could go in the Meyer thread and May stuff could go in the May thread.

Yep. I love rehashing old scouting reports on players who are no longer in the organization. Only thing that could make it better is to get into a heated argument about Zack Jones. 

[Doomtints]

Tom Baker has spoken.

[Doomtints]

 

Yep. I love rehashing old scouting reports on players who are no longer in the organization. Only thing that could make it better is to get into a heated argument about Zack Jones. 

 

Hey now.  Zach Jones is back in the Twins org and pitching well in AA.  He'll be with the Twins before you can say "Zachie Robinson!"

[HitInAPinch]

 

I suppose it would be too much to ask if Meyer stuff could go in the Meyer thread and May stuff could go in the May thread.

 

Thank you for that....

[dxpavelka]

 

It was enough sample size for the Twins to decide they couldn't make use of him and trade him off for petty cash.

Judging by the fact that his ERA since he left is less than half of what it was for those 48 innings I'd venture to guess that it may not have been a wise decision.

[operation mindcrime]

To make matters worse, here is the list of the players who made starts for the Twins that season:

 

Kevin Correia

Mike Pelfrey

Scott Diamond

Sam Deduno

Pedro Hernandez

Andrew Albers

Liam Hendrinks

Cole DeVries

------

Kyle Gibson

 

Other than Gibson, arguably Worley was the best of the list

Omfg! "Total System Failure"