Article: Parting Gifts: Ryan's 5 Best Final Moves

[Linus]

TR greatest parting gift is a well stocked farm system which is the most important factor of any.

 

They have some potential high end players and enough depth that if some bust we will still be ok.

[Kwak]

Discussing (championing?) the acquisition of a few, successful, bit players only serves to amplify the failure.  Ryan's assignment was to right the ship, turn things around and build a consistent winner. It was clear when he was named "interim GM" that the minor league cupboard was bare and that there was much work to be done. The big decision he missed was "keeping the gang" (management) intact. The Rule 4 draft hadn't provided much for many years (including during his first tenure as GM). This was the perfect time to "shake the tree" and inject new people (and thinking) into an organization that had failed. These aren't multi-million dollar players--no, they are eminently affordable staffers, scouts, and instructor/coaches. There was plenty of money available for that change. The performance of the "first wave" (or is it two waves?) of talent hasn't come close to what was promised.

 

Sure, there were some decent, bit players acquired--BIT PLAYERS. These aren't the guys that turn things around--nor should anyone stand on a pedestal and shout about some minor good decisions. It's the big decisions that make the real impact--and the jury has rendered its verdict of "Guilty". Now we wait to see if the ownership committee makes the right decision for the next GM.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Terry was really bad but my god the Diamondbacks GM is a disaster. He traded Palka for Herrman and gave away Dansby Swanson and other prospects for Shelby Miller. That franchise just got set back another 10 years.

 

I believe their GM is Dave Stewart and the Director of Baseball Operations is Tony Larussa... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

A 24-year-old Palka is of more value to a team in MN's position than a 28-year-old (out of options) Herrmann. I don't think this is a particularly controversial statement.

 

Of course Palka carries uncertainty, as does any prospect, but it seems odd to completely downplay a guy who's on track to hit almost 40 home runs in his first taste of the high minors.

Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Wait, so Herrmann was expendable because we had John Hicks (although I seem to recall he was claimed after Herrmann was traded)... and in the very next point, John Hicks was expendable for David Murphy too. Got it.

What great catching depth we must have! Why are people worried about the position at all going forward? Seems crazy, the way you portray it.

 

Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy. John Hicks going was not a big deal. Chris Hermann being traded was not a big deal (except that the Twins actually got something interesting back). The Twins have had multiple catchers with the same set of skills and if the guys they currently have were hit by a bus, they could go find similar replacements relatively easily.

 

This topic continues to be beaten to death. It's the weirdest thing in a super weird year on TD.

Edited July 26, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Well, they only won 3 of the 1st 18 games he appeared in... so probably not much worse

 

Ha. I was more saying from the point of view of a fan making it through those games. There was at least a month this year where every single reliever coming in made me cringe with the exception of Abad. For that month alone, he has been a great pickup.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...

 

As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM. Though we may not love Suzuki or JRM, I think we can comfortably say we're happy the Twins took a shot on JRM (who still has multiple options left and is a much better prospect than Hermann) and are glad Suzuki is starting everyday instead of Hermann. The Twins got something for nothing and that something has turned out to be more exciting than we thought at the time.

 

And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival". We've just correctly pointed out Small Sample Size and Past Performance and dismissed that a hot 145 at bats is relevant to deciding who wins a trade. The Twins had a below-replacement level catcher who they likely couldn't keep in the minors and who didn't warrant a guaranteed spot in the bigs and swapped him for an interesting outfield power bat prospect currently tearing it up in AAA. That's a pretty big win no matter how you look at it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy.

I thought you just said that Herrmann lacking options was a big negative?  That's certainly a difference that he and Centeno don't share with Hicks, who is not only optionable this year, but again in 2017.  Being able to more freely audition catchers, in an org with a catching deficiency, seems like it would be more than a negligible or minute difference.

Edited July 26, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM.

Those weren't the only options.  They could have tried to pass Herrmann through waivers and outright him to AAA, and if he was really as interchangeable with Juan Centeno as you claim, it shouldn't have been too much of a problem to time such a transaction -- an out of options Centeno cleared waivers himself in November.

 

 

And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival".

 

Read the article again.  Nick, to whom I was responding, most definitely completely ignores Herrmann's 2016 performance.  There is no mention of it at all in the article, even just to dismiss it as a small sample size, outlier, etc.  Which sort of matters when he wants to conclude the trade is a "big win" based on the 2016 minor league performance of Palka.

 

I'd even be willing to consider the trade as win for Minnesota right now, but I think such a conclusion needs a more honest accounting of all of the facts, and the fact is that Herrmann has looked like a useful MLB player in 2016 at a position of need for the Twins, and it isn't all that clear that Palka will ever exceed that threshold.  (The "X" factor is, of course, if the Twins have coaching/development problems that were stifling Herrmann here.)

[Linus]

In an attempt to simplify this: who would you rather have? I'll take Palka.

[d-mac]

 

 

So the heap pile, even though it might once a while get them someone who may be serviceable, costs them much more in opportunity...

 

Opportunity cost, bingo. 

[jharaldson]

I won't dispute that these are positive moves but for 2016 they have resulted in 1.7 WAR total.  

 

 

 

 

 

[d-mac]

So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

[jimmer]

 

So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

I'd trade Rosario or Grossman before I traded Palka.  Rosario is best served as a 4th OF, not a starter. Been saying for a long time,

[alarp33]

 

So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

 

Out of all those names you listed, I would put 2 of them in the category of "locks to be long term MLB Starters (btoh good ones)".  Sano and Kepler.  

 

 

Edit:  Not to say I disagree with flipping Palka.. just pointing out that logjam is no sure thing

 

Edited July 26, 2016 by alarp33

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So.... has anybody figured out how Palka is going to find playing time in the majors? He's not going to supplant Kepler. Rosario will likely be given quite a bit of leash in LF. And Grossman has been pretty good. At DH/1B we have Sano (long term), Mauer, Park, and Vargas. Palka is already 25. An astute GM would recognize this back-log and try to flip Palka in the offseason. 

Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely.

 

So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter?

[d-mac]

 

Out of all those names you listed, I would put 2 of them in the category of "locks to be long term MLB Starters (btoh good ones)".  Sano and Kepler.  

 

 

Edit:  Not to say I disagree with flipping Palka.. just pointing out that logjam is no sure thing

 

Agreed, but they will all get their looks before Palka. And time is not on Palka's side. 

[d-mac]

 

Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely.

 

So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter?

 

My bad, I thought Palka was a year older. He is 24 though, 10/28/91. Turns 25 in october. 

[d-mac]

 

My bad, I thought Palka was a year older. He is 24 though, 10/28/91. Turns 25 in october. 

 

But still, once a player turns 26, that prospect shine goes away.