Not Ready But Worth the Wait

[GMinTraining]

The Baseballist: Mining For Power Prospects Around The Diamond

Baseball America Article

 

Scouts don’t rely on the number in the “home runs” column when grading a young player’s raw power—and neither should fantasy owners.  Instead, scouts study hitters in batting practice to see (and hear) how the ball comes off his bat. They also consider the quality and frequency of a batter’s hard contact in games. So to some extent, the outs a batter consumes when not going deep, or what he does when not putting the ball in play, are irrelevant to his raw-power evaluation. This particularly holds for talented young players who are not yet fully developed hitters.

 

For this reason, the long-standing fantasy baseball resource Baseball HQ evaluates power using a metric they call linear-weighted power (LwPwr), which measures the quality of a batter’s extra-base production per ball in play. (Read all about it here.) Using the LwPwr formula, doubles and triples are weighted at 0.8, while home runs are weighted at 1.4, and the sum of those values is then divided by a batter’s at-bats (minus) strikeouts. This ignores what a batter does while not putting the ball in play, so you must factor his strikeout and walk rates separately.

 

One can then scale this LwPWr value to the league average to determine what Baseball HQ calls linear-weighted power index (PX), which is what I have used in this piece to rank prospects at each position. Think of PX as a power ceiling for each player, because as noted, strikeouts are not counted against him.

 

Adding one further wrinkle to the PX formula, I adjusted it for the home-run park factor for each player. This step is important, because minor league parks feature radically different home-run conditions. The end result of this calculation is the number found in the PX column throughout. Keep in mind that because PX is an index, a value of 100 is average, while those who score at 150 would be 50 percent better than league average(s).

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-mining-power-prospects-around-diamond/#gJLOest84dhmybYa.97

 

The Top Players based on PX Index formula (MLB & MiLB) in 2015:  

[100 PX is avg.]

MLB - M. Stanton - 280

MiLB - AB Walker - 273 (39 points higher than next minor leaguer)

MiLB - Bobby Bradley - 238

MLB - R. Grichuk - 225

MLB - B. Harper - 212

MLB - M. Sano - 210

MLB - M. Trout - 192

MLB - P. Goldschmidt - 191

MLB - JD Martinez - 190

 

A repeat of AAA for ABW in 2017 will give a much better indication of future potential.  Stanton hit a max of 22 HRs in his first round of the 2016 HR Derby.  He had 4 and a half minutes to complete this task.  

 

ABW competed in the same timed HR derby format in 2014 (Florida State League) and had only 3 minutes with no timeouts.   ABW had a score of 36 in the finals.  ABW's HRs are epic as are his SO's, but his upside is off the charts.  Not Ready But Worth the Wait

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

If we call him up who would then take the bench?

[Mr. Brooks]

If we call him up who would then take the bench?

Mauer could move to the bench.

[Mike Sixel]

This sentence is kind of important, imo:

 

This ignores what a batter does while not putting the ball in play, so you must factor his strikeout and walk rates separately.

[nytwinsfan]

Very strange that Palka isn't on this list. Does that suggest he's been in extremely hitter-friendly parks throughout his minor league career? Is there some other reason he would be excluded?  To be honest, Palka's absence sort of makes me doubt the reliability of this method.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

That and he's outperforming Walker thus far too. 

[Vanimal46]

That chart listed in the original post was from the 2015 season. So that's probably playing into Palka not being on the list. 

It's the same song and dance talking about ABW. If you're an ABW bo-bo, you're marketing his power numbers. If you're an ABW skeptic, you're marketing his K% and batting average. Both sides have a point, and why ABW is a very flawed, interesting prospect.

He's not blocking anyone in the lower levels from playing time, so he's just fine playing in AAA.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Very strange that Palka isn't on this list. Does that suggest he's been in extremely hitter-friendly parks throughout his minor league career? Is there some other reason he would be excluded? To be honest, Palka's absence sort of makes me doubt the reliability of this method.

Well, it is just 2015 data, and Palka spent last season in the California League, which is regarded as hitter friendly.

[GMinTraining]

 

If we call him up who would then take the bench?

Don't call him up until Mid August or September and see what you might have.  It's not like he is going to be the reason the Twins are losing this year.  What do you have to lose?  Will the power play?  Would love to know and stop speculating.  Even in a small sample size.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no speculation. Walker can't hit.

[Bluestreet22]

Walker seems to be figuring some things out in AAA give him another year there and let's see what happens!