Unanswered questions, tough decisions loom for Twins

[The Wise One]

 

I enjoy Sickel's books every year. A deep organization might have 35 prospects C or better. The vast majority are below that level.

The real decision was to tender or not. Getting back a non prospect in trade is irrelevant. They could have saved 4.5 million. That isn't very much money on the market though Trevor Cahill, Jeremy Blevins and Joe Blanton were in that neighborhood and doing OK. I would not have advocated going after any of those three.

The problem isn't Milone. He is paid below the going rate of a number 5 starter. The commitment in his contract is one that is small enough so that if doesn't pitch well they don't keep throwing out there.

The problem is the commitments to three other back end starters that they can't easily let go. Since 2012, Milone has a better ERA+ than Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. They are all below average, Nolasco more below average than the other three. Their performance and decline was predictable. Milone is the only wise signing for the back of the rotation of the 4.

At the time when Nolasco, Hughes or Santana were signed, could have anyone predicted the ERA+  stat?  Now try ERA+ for 15-16 as you are only as good as your last couple seasons. Not the same picture

[The Wise One]

 

While Chacin did a stint in the minors last year after being released by Colorado, he was not traded from the minor leagues this year.  And his salary this season is only $1.1 mil.

 

Brendan Ryan was indeed in the minor leagues when he was traded last month, but of course he was on a minor league contract and minimum salary.  And he was traded for "cash considerations or a player to be named later" which if history is any guide, likely means a nominal amount of cash, comparable to the waiver fee.

 

Again, neither example is particularly comparable to Tommy Milone, who is still owed something like $3 mil.  Nobody is taking on his salary in trade right now, probably not until he returns to MLB and starts performing (or a team is desperate and his remaining salary is low in August, what I like to call the "Kevin Correia Theorem").  Indeed, the Angels passed on claiming Milone for the waiver fee (plus his salary, of course) when they opted to trade for Chacin and his salary instead.

Exact money, more money, less money. It is going to be hard to match exactly. Fringe players spending time in the minors being traded does happen  There would be no doubt that Millone would be brought beck up and Dean sent back down if a team is sniffin.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Exact money, more money, less money. It is going to be hard to match exactly. Fringe players spending time in the minors being traded does happen

Not looking for anything "exact" just comparable financially, which you have yet to find. Milone making $3 mil more than these guys is important, because teams looking at a guy like Milone and not someone better are probably cheap and would definitely resist a trade over a couple million, just like they resisted claiming Milone in the first place.

 

Like our Plouffe discussion in the other thread, that roadblock probably melts away if the Twins throw in a few mil cash, but there are no indications that the Twins are considering such a move right now. (There actually isn't much evidence to suggest they will consider it late July into August either which is troubling.) Hence, Milone's trade value suffers compared to cheaper players in a similar position.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Milone's value is bad right now b/c quite frankly he was just bad.  He had (at least I'd like to think he did) value in the offseason as someone who for 3 years has been a decent pitcher, granted a back of the rotation pitcher, but decent.  Now... not so much. 

[jorgenswest]

At the time when Nolasco, Hughes or Santana were signed, could have anyone predicted the ERA+  stat?  Now try ERA+ for 15-16 as you are only as good as your last couple seasons. Not the same picture

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At the time when Nolasco, Hughes or Santana were signed, could have anyone predicted the ERA+  stat?  Now try ERA+ for 15-16 as you are only as good as your last couple seasons. Not the same picture

Career ERA+ as a starting pitcher when they signed with the Twins:

 

Nolasco: 94

Hughes: ~91

Santana: 99

 

Milone is at 97 career right now, which isn't really surprising given his age and minor league record.  Baker was 102 with the Twins, Slowey 90.  Correia was 89 for the Twins.

 

No doubt the Twins went through a SP dry spell for a few years there, although in part compounded by their own action/inaction, but it also seems beyond dispute that the Twins overreacted the other way by locking up big years and money to 3 guys delivering performance levels that most teams can find cheaper (and even the Twins of the last few years have been finding them cheaper but unable to play them, most notably Milone and May).

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

Absolutely not. No way, no how.

 

Gordon is 20 years old and having his first above average season in high A ball. He has no business being within a thousand miles of a MLB lineup in 2016.

You're right.  I got a little carried away.  

[Rosterman]

Teams had a chance to grab Milone, stash him in the minors themselves. Can he come back? Of course. Might he become valuable? No more so than anyone else on the roster. He would be a free agent at season's end.

 

Will be curious to see where Milone ends up next season.

[jorgenswest]

Teams had a chance to grab Milone, stash him in the minors themselves. Can he come back? Of course. Might he become valuable? No more so than anyone else on the roster. He would be a free agent at season's end.

 

Will be curious to see where Milone ends up next season.

I think I agree that he will become a free agent (assuming the Twins don't tender). If he is returned to the 40, wouldn't the Twins have the option of tendering and retaining team control through 2018? Did they give up team control when they outrighted him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think I agree that he will become a free agent (assuming the Twins don't tender). If he is returned to the 40, wouldn't the Twins have the option of tendering and retaining team control through 2018? Did they give up team control when they outrighted him?

Nope. If he is added back the 40 man, we will still control him. Of course we would have to offer arbitration or make him a free agent anyway...

[The Wise One]

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

If ERA+ and FIP paint different pictures of the same thing then maybe you need to try a third metric.

[The Wise One]

 

 

Career ERA+ as a starting pitcher when they signed with the Twins:

 

Nolasco: 94

Hughes: ~91

Santana: 99

 

Milone is at 97 career right now, which isn't really surprising given his age and minor league record.  Baker was 102 with the Twins, Slowey 90.  Correia was 89 for the Twins.

 

No doubt the Twins went through a SP dry spell for a few years there, although in part compounded by their own action/inaction, but it also seems beyond dispute that the Twins overreacted the other way by locking up big years and money to 3 guys delivering performance levels that most teams can find cheaper (and even the Twins of the last few years have been finding them cheaper but unable to play them, most notably Milone and May).

Millone's ERA+ in Oakland was 100.  

Sanatana has great years and bad years. That Hughes seemed to have found the pitcher everyone thought he could be when he came fooled people.  Nolasco was the innings eater.  However, your claim that most teams find these pitchers cheaper is unsupportable. You are not going to accept Millone is tradeable from the minors because I didn't find the comparables, then you better have backing for your statements

 

[jokin]

 

 

However, your claim that most teams find these pitchers cheaper is unsupportable.

 

For starters, the Cubs found Jake Arrieta in exchange for a rental #5 SP.
 

[The Wise One]

 

For starters, the Cubs found Jake Arrieta in exchange for a rental #5 SP.
 

Great trade for the Cubs. Outlier, trade the claim was most clubs,

[jorgenswest]

If ERA+ and FIP paint different pictures of the same thing then maybe you need to try a third metric.

By 500 innings the various ERA estimator metrics converge with ERA. If they didn't converge, they wouldn't have value. They all paint pictures of a pitchers ability to prevent runs scored. The purpose of the metrics is to try to get a better picture in a smaller sample. FIP stabilizes before ERA and is more reliable than ERA when looking at a single full season from a starting pitcher. Short of that full season neither is very reliable. since fly ball rate stabilizes earlier than home run rate, xFIP stabilizes earlier than FIP.

 

They all paint a picture of the ability to prevent runs scored. When the sample is large enough ERA (and ERA+ for context) paints a good picture. The sample used was large enough. Looking at a large group of similarly aged pitchers and performance of their prime suggested that the Twins might expect Santana to perform as a number 3/4 starter his first year and 4/5 in 2016. With luck he will still be performing in the middle of the number 5 starters at the end of the 4 years. The picture for Nolasco and 4 years wasn't as bright. Essentially they paid 100 million dollars the upside of filling the back end of their rotation. It was easy to see that it was a bad decision at the time.

 

The Twins can only get out of this hole by developing or acquiring young team control starting pitching. Multiyear free agent contracts to any decline phase pitcher guarantees a cycle of mediocrity. Though mediocrity would be a huge step up from the performance this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

However, your claim that most teams find these pitchers cheaper is unsupportable.

Perhaps my point wasn't clear. Yes, each of these pitchers signed close to their market value, but I would guess very few teams sign that many around that performance level all at once. Particularly the Hughes extension on top of the other deals.

 

Most teams might fill in a spot or two with such a free agent, but the other spots they aim higher, find cheaper, etc. Sometimes you find guys like Milone getting pushed out of another club, guys like May emerge, sometimes guys overperform a more modest 3/24 type contract like Hughes (which the Twins promptly tore up). By signing three such guys to bigger money/years, the Twins seemed to have limited their flexibility compared to most clubs, and have lost a decent amount of surplus value on Milone and May as a result.

[Ncgo4]

Folks, this is Mr Ryan's club to play with. There is some hope he will be gone at year's end. Even with only a slight hope I pray no trades are made until new mgmt is in place. Can you imagine how badly he could do for us in a fire sale environment?

[The Wise One]

 

By 500 innings the various ERA estimator metrics converge with ERA. If they didn't converge, they wouldn't have value. They all paint pictures of a pitchers ability to prevent runs scored. The purpose of the metrics is to try to get a better picture in a smaller sample. FIP stabilizes before ERA and is more reliable than ERA when looking at a single full season from a starting pitcher. Short of that full season neither is very reliable. since fly ball rate stabilizes earlier than home run rate, xFIP stabilizes earlier than FIP.

They all paint a picture of the ability to prevent runs scored. When the sample is large enough ERA (and ERA+ for context) paints a good picture. The sample used was large enough. Looking at a large group of similarly aged pitchers and performance of their prime suggested that the Twins might expect Santana to perform as a number 3/4 starter his first year and 4/5 in 2016. With luck he will still be performing in the middle of the number 5 starters at the end of the 4 years. The picture for Nolasco and 4 years wasn't as bright. Essentially they paid 100 million dollars the upside of filling the back end of their rotation. It was easy to see that it was a bad decision at the time.

The Twins can only get out of this hole by developing or acquiring young team control starting pitching. Multiyear free agent contracts to any decline phase pitcher guarantees a cycle of mediocrity. Though mediocrity would be a huge step up from the performance this year.

Yet after 500 innings  one would not say that Nolasco's   ERA and FIP or xFIP have normalized.  It has not normalized after 1000 innings.  In Miami he had a career fip of 3.8.  It would not be unreasonable to think one could "fix"  why there was a difference.  It wasn't like he was considered scrap heap before joining the Twins. There were a couple better options, there were a lot worse options that received similar contracts.

[jorgenswest]

Yet after 500 innings  one would not say that Nolasco's   ERA and FIP or xFIP have normalized.  It has not normalized after 1000 innings.  In Miami he had a career fip of 3.8.  It would not be unreasonable to think one could "fix"  why there was a difference.  It wasn't like he was considered scrap heap before joining the Twins. There were a couple better options, there were a lot worse options that received similar contracts.

Is it possible that the difference between the ERA estimators and ERA has to do with his skill set? In that case they will not converge.

[The Wise One]

 

Perhaps my point wasn't clear. Yes, each of these pitchers signed close to their market value, but I would guess very few teams sign that many around that performance level all at once. Particularly the Hughes extension on top of the other deals.

Most teams might fill in a spot or two with such a free agent, but the other spots they aim higher, find cheaper, etc. Sometimes you find guys like Milone getting pushed out of another club, guys like May emerge, sometimes guys overperform a more modest 3/24 type contract like Hughes (which the Twins promptly tore up). By signing three such guys to bigger money/years, the Twins seemed to have limited their flexibility compared to most clubs, and have lost a decent amount of surplus value on Milone and May as a result.

One has to remember  the preceding years chaos of a pitching staff the years preceding these signings.  Signing 3/5 of a rotation was a sign that one did not expect more than 3 of your own pitchers to develop into a success.  Surplus value on Milone?  At his peak Milone would bring back a filler player or a high risk, high reward player.  Nothing has changed. May is not the type of pitcher the Twins trade.

[The Wise One]

 

Is it possible that the difference between the ERA estimators and ERA has to do with his skill set? In that case they will not converge.

FIP is to measure skillset. Nolasco's ERA has been higher than fip suggesting that the skills are better the results

[jorgenswest]

FIP is to measure skillset. Nolasco's ERA has been higher than fip suggesting that the skills are better the results

Is pitching from the stretch a skill? Is pitching with runners on base a skill? If not, then Nolasco has simply had bad luck for 9 straight years. If they are a skill and one that Nolasco does poorly, they don't show up in FIP or xFIP and those measures don't represent his pitching skill well.

[The Wise One]

Is pitching from the stretch a skill? Is pitching with runners on base a skill? If not, then Nolasco has simply had bad luck for 9 straight years. If they are a skill and one that Nolasco does poorly, they don't show up in FIP or xFIP and those measures don't represent his pitching skill well.

 

 

And what if pitching in the stretch is not the problem?  Give you a hint, given his mediocre LOB%, you assessed the problem with Nolasco.  Is it an unfixable problem? The Twins obviously did not think so.

 

So if Fielding Independent Pitching is an unreliable measure of skill then why are the sites using it?

 

Congratulations, as you point out the limitations of FIP, XFIP, SIERRA et al, you also manage to show why WAR is a useless stat also.

 

[magiklair]

Nice article. I'd like to see more of Centeno and Polanco. We know what we have in Suzuki.. Centeno hit .275 in triple a. Let's see what he can do in the majors..

[ashbury]

Centeno hit .275 in triple a. Let's see what he can do in the majors..

I predict .231.

[Mike Sixel]

Have any questions been answered, that will effect next year?

 

Polanco?

Arcia?

Sano in RF?

Others?