Blake Swihart

[Mike Sixel]

The Red Sox have no need to trade Swihart unless they get a significant return. He isn't out of options. They have a starting catcher coming off an injury. Why would they trade him for one of Minnesotas many back end starters?

Because Dombrowski is their GM and they are trying to win NOW....... Though I agree, he isn't coming for a back end player, I think peyote are over estimating his cost

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Swihart strikes me as overrated and therefore probably overpriced. I've long thought the Twins should have been talking to the Giants about Susac, although he is also off to a slow start this year.

[jimbo92107]

The conversation would start, and likely end, with Berrios.

I bet they would take Duffey in a straight swap, and there's no way I would do that. I think Bender's gonna be a good one. 

[CampQ]

Because Dombrowski is their GM and they are trying to win NOW....... Though I agree, he isn't coming for a back end player, I think peyote are over estimating his cost

Peyote has never once led to a cost benefit evaluation.

 

Read Howl. You'll get the vibes, man

[Riverbrian]

Don't overpay for position scarcity. 

 

You've already made your move for John Ryan Murphy... Don't do it again. 

 

The best hitting catchers perform like below average hitting outfielders so don't overplay for position scarcity again please. 

 

Every team has weak hitting catchers and these weak hitting catchers are expensive because of this position scarcity. 

 

Herrmann is backing up in Arizona and Fryer is the backup in St. Louis because of this position scarcity and we all thought they were going to fall off the face of the earth. 

 

Draft the best college catcher this year.

 

Wait for Murphy to become that .260 BA with 9 HR ceiling that he could become.

 

Call up Turner and grow your own. 

 

Trade for Lavarnway for Cash Considerations because his production will only be a little bit worse or a little bet better than every other catcher on the planet not named Posey. 

 

 

All of these are better options so don't give up anything of value for somebody who is just going to bat 8th in the lineup. 

 

If you are desperate to get rid of Suzuki... You will be desperate to get rid of the guy who replaces him as well because catchers just are not that impressive. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Draft the best college catcher this year.

Never, ever draft for need.

 

Especially a catcher.

 

It's rare for a catcher to spend fewer than two years in the minors, even collegiate athletes. In two years, the situation could be drastically different and you overdrafted to get a guy based on nebulous future need.

 

Draft the BPA, especially in the first three rounds. Once you get past the third round, reaching a bit on an upside player is fine but not early. Never early.

[Riverbrian]

 

Never, ever draft for need.

 

Especially a catcher.

 

It's rare for a catcher to spend fewer than two years in the minors, even collegiate athletes. In two years, the situation could be drastically different and you overdrafted to get a guy based on nebulous future need.

 

Draft the BPA, especially in the first three rounds. Once you get past the third round, reaching a bit on an upside player is fine but not early. Never early.

 

I'm Ok with that but it's the most likely way to get a Posey type C. 

 

Unless you find one on the international FA Market. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm Ok with that but it's the most likely way to get a Posey type C. 

 

Unless you find one on the international FA Market. 

Sure, but Posey was a top five draft pick. The Twins pick in the middle of the draft this season.

 

Pick the best guy on the board and if that's a catcher, great. If it's not, evaluate the system and make the appropriate moves to acquire a catcher.

[Riverbrian]

 

Sure, but Posey was a top five draft pick. The Twins pick in the middle of the draft this season.

 

Pick the best guy on the board and if that's a catcher, great. If it's not, evaluate the system and make the appropriate moves to acquire a catcher.

 

You pay a premium either way

[Mike Sixel]

 

Peyote has never once led to a cost benefit evaluation.

Read Howl. You'll get the vibes, man

 

Wow! that is one crazy auto correct......wow.

 

sometimes my phone picks the most strange words.......though peyote may explain the decision making going on right now.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You pay a premium either way

True, but it's more of a sure thing. In the draft, you're getting a player you're more confident will succeed in the long run and in the trade/acquisition, you're getting a player further along in his development.

 

The Twins drafted for need when they selected Levi Michael. We all know how that turned out for the organization. They may as well have given that pick to another team or simply abstained from picking at all.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Bender

Haven't heard that one. Sweeeet. 

[Vanimal46]

Let's say the team does over pay for a position scarcity, and it works out. Wouldn't that be a significant advantage over the competition? Did other teams punt the C position before because, well there's only 1 Joe Mauer/Buster Posey, there's no way we'll find anything better? 

[mazeville]

To me, this is where Hughes' fall from his 2014 highs really stinks.

 

Just say for instance that Hughes performs to that level this year. He would certainly attract a Swihart-type player in return. And more, in fact. Unfortunately, he is pitching like garbage. 

 

That's been a big part of the problem with the Twins' struggles in recent years. Players who should be tradable haven't played well enough to generate the strong returns that would give a nice boost to the team's comeback. And players who do play well are greeted with shouts of "Don't trade him! He's too good!" Or they're local players.

 

The best we can hope for at this point is for Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Trevor Plouffe or Brian Dozier to start playing well enough to generate trade interest so we can perhaps pry a good catching prospect from a contender.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sure, but Posey was a top five draft pick. The Twins pick in the middle of the draft this season.

 

Pick the best guy on the board and if that's a catcher, great. If it's not, evaluate the system and make the appropriate moves to acquire a catcher.

 

Yes, in fact, I'd go so far as to say never draft a catcher in the 1st round unless he's a can't miss guy. The best catcher drafted since Posey way back in 2008 is Yasmani Grandal and if you filter catchers by WAR, he's the 19th best catcher over the past three years.

 

This is an increasingly neglected position, the Twins hit bottom rather early on it, but just about every other club is going to follow. All of the best catchers in the league (and best is a very, very relative term for the position) are 29+. Once the McCann's, Martin's, Cervelli's, LuCroy's, Molina's, Norris', et al hang up their cleats, and based on their ages, it will be soon, the league is going to realize they are at a crisis point regarding the position.

 

I'm guessing it's not a popular position to play any longer and fewer kids are volunteering to take up the tools of ignorance, or their parents are telling them not to.

[Riverbrian]

 

Let's say the team does over pay for a position scarcity, and it works out. Wouldn't that be a significant advantage over the competition? Did other teams punt the C position before because, well there's only 1 Joe Mauer/Buster Posey, there's no way we'll find anything better? 

 

Catcher comes with other considerations. Such as defense and the ability to work with Pitchers and call a professional game. 

 

Also... Managers are prone to rest them more than other positions because it's a hard physical job. 

 

If you get a Mauer or a Posey... They start looking for another position that they can play so they can play that bat in the lineup every day so you end up starting your backup frequently anyway. 

 

Hey if you can get a Posey or a young Mauer... Do it but the price is going to be bone crushing. 

 

Swihart for a #2 starter? That's a horrible price for someone who might hit as well as Eduardo Escobar if you are lucky.  BTW... The Twins don't have anybody who fits that description unless you are willing to trade Berrios.  

 

On top of that. Swihart just lost his job to someone who probably hits a little less but was better defensively and that kind of shows the willingness of most clubs to punt the position at least offensively. 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

so, don't make catcher better if you can't get Mauer / Posey?

 

How about not having the worst* catching situation in the game? That would be a nice start........

 

*according to FG War.....

 

aim low, get bad results.....

[nicksaviking]

 

Let's say the team does over pay for a position scarcity, and it works out. Wouldn't that be a significant advantage over the competition? Did other teams punt the C position before because, well there's only 1 Joe Mauer/Buster Posey, there's no way we'll find anything better? 

 

I don't think teams punted the position, I think the best athletes punted the position.

 

Maybe the Twins could sell the farm and somehow get the last great catcher, but it would just be one more thing the Twins were last at.

[Riverbrian]

 

so, don't make catcher better if you can't get Mauer / Posey?

 

How about not having the worst* catching situation in the game? That would be a nice start........

 

*according to FG War.....

 

aim low, get bad results.....

 

C'mon Mike... You know I'm not saying that. 

 

I'm saying how much do you want to pay for a guy who will sit every 3rd game to rest and only hit as well as Eduardo Escobar if you are lucky. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

C'mon Mike... You know I'm not saying that. 

 

I'm saying how much do you want to pay for a guy who will sit every 3rd game to rest and only hit as well as Eduardo Escobar if you are lucky. 

 

Why are you comparing the hitting to non-catchers? 

 

If you can go from the worst catching in the league to league average, that has real value, imo. Not Berrios value, but real value.

 

All I know is that A LOT of catchers have switched teams since Suzuki came here, and we still have the worst situation.

 

and, sorry, I'm having a rather bad day at work, I'll watch the snark.

[alarp33]

 

C'mon Mike... You know I'm not saying that. 

 

I'm saying how much do you want to pay for a guy who will sit every 3rd game to rest and only hit as well as Eduardo Escobar if you are lucky. 

 

Well 15 catchers played in more than 2/3 of the games last year, so I'm not sure if they traded for a good Catcher that guy would be sitting every 3rd game.  

 

Also, why Escobar, why lucky?  Swihart is young, but has played 91 games with a .275/.324/.386 line, a good amount higher than Escobars career .301 obp.  

 

Also, if you're replacing a .550 ops player in the lineup with a .720 one, I would say thats pretty damn valuable, no?  They wouldn't be trading for a Swihart type to DH

[nicksaviking]

 

 

so, don't make catcher better if you can't get Mauer / Posey?

 

How about not having the worst* catching situation in the game? That would be a nice start........

 

*according to FG War.....

 

aim low, get bad results.....

 

Of catchers with 100 PA last year Suzuki was 54th in catcher WAR at -.1. Derrek Norris was fifth in WAR at 2.4. Despite the wide gap in perceived talent, that's only a difference of 2.5 WAR.

 

Every other position has a difference of at least 4 WAR, and most are way more. There's just not much of a difference between "good" catchers and terrible catchers any more. There is one great catcher and a couple of good catchers left; they are all old, and none are for sale. The Twins just have to figure out how to adapt without a good catcher, every other team is going to have to learn eventually, maybe the Twins can gain some kind of advantage with their head start.

[Riverbrian]

Hope your day at work gets better and don't worry about the snark... You and me are cool. 

 

I just think you were missing my point. 

 

The reason I'm comparing the potential output to other positions was to illustrate what you get in return. Yes you can upgrade the catcher position but the price tag will be high and you have most likely downgraded another position to upgrade the catcher position and you end up with someone who hits like Escober. 

 

I don't know what stats you are using to state that the Twins have the worst catching in the league... I can believe that they have the worst catching in MLB but I also think it's quite possible that the difference between 30th and 10th isn't that large because catching sucks offensively around the league.  

 

Keep in mind... I'm not a WAR guy so that won't help change my mind. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of catchers with 100 PA last year Suzuki was 54th in catcher WAR at -.1. Derrek Norris was fifth in WAR at 2.4. Despite the wide gap in perceived talent, that's only a difference of 2.5 WAR.

 

Every other position has a difference of at least 4 WAR, and most are way more. There's just not much of a difference between "good" catchers and terrible catchers any more. There is one great catcher and a couple of good catchers left; they are all old, and none are for sale. The Twins just have to figure out how to adapt without a good catcher, every other team is going to have to learn eventually, maybe the Twins can gain some kind of advantage with their head start.

 

2.5 WAR is a lot of WAR, though......they also have about the worst backup catchers in the league. They also have no one in AAA that is ready, and the AA guys are not ready. If the Twins could move up 2.5 WAR at C, SS, and LF, that team would be A LOT better than it is right now......

 

I understand it is not a position with the huge gaps between the better and the worst players, like some other positions. I also believe that having the worst catching the league matters, and that they traded for a guy that has been awful so far. Not just bad, but awful.

 

All I'm saying is don't punt the position just because it is a hard position to fill, but then, I feel that way about the 25th man, unlike the Twins, so what do I know?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hope your day at work gets better and don't worry about the snark... You and me are cool. 

 

I just think you were missing my point. 

 

The reason I'm comparing the potential output to other positions was to illustrate what you get in return. Yes you can upgrade the catcher position but the price tag will be high and you have most likely downgraded another position to upgrade the catcher position and you end up with someone who hits like Escober. 

 

I don't know what stats you are using to state that the Twins have the worst catching in the league... I can believe that they have the worst catching in MLB but I also think it's quite possible that the difference between 30th and 10th isn't that large because catching sucks offensively around the league.  

 

Keep in mind... I'm not a WAR guy so that won't help change my mind. 

 

Well, I don't know what stats to look at if I can't look at WAR. But, when you add Murphy plus Suzuki (or Suzuki last year plus the backups last year) you end up with one of the, if not the, worst situations in the game.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well 15 catchers played in more than 2/3 of the games last year, so I'm not sure if they traded for a good Catcher that guy would be sitting every 3rd game.  

 

Also, why Escobar, why lucky?  Swihart is young, but has played 91 games with a .275/.324/.386 line, a good amount higher than Escobars career .301 obp.  

 

Also, if you're replacing a .550 ops player in the lineup with a .720 one, I would say thats pretty damn valuable, no?  They wouldn't be trading for a Swihart type to DH

 

I'm curious why you chose to slightly inflate Swihart's 2015 OPS and then use Escobar's 2016 OPS to make your point. 

 

I'm also curious why you chose to only use Escobar's OBP. 

 

Escobar has more at-bats than Swihart and the exact same career slugging. 

 

Now... If you'd like to give up Berrios for that. I can't stop you but I'll be asking for Terry Ryan to come back and replace you as GM. 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know what stats you are using to state that the Twins have the worst catching in the league... I can believe that they have the worst catching in MLB but I also think it's quite possible that the difference between 30th and 10th isn't that large because catching sucks offensively around the league.  

 

Keep in mind... I'm not a WAR guy so that won't help change my mind. 

 

Well WAR agrees with you anyway.

[alarp33]

 

Of catchers with 100 PA last year Suzuki was 54th in catcher WAR at -.1. Derrek Norris was fifth in WAR at 2.4. Despite the wide gap in perceived talent, that's only a difference of 2.5 WAR.

 

Every other position has a difference of at least 4 WAR, and most are way more. There's just not much of a difference between "good" catchers and terrible catchers any more. There is one great catcher and a couple of good catchers left; they are all old, and none are for sale. The Twins just have to figure out how to adapt without a good catcher, every other team is going to have to learn eventually, maybe the Twins can gain some kind of advantage with their head start.

 

The 10th ranked C by WAR (Miguel Montero) was also a 2 win improvement over Suzuki.  May not seem like much, but 2 wins are pretty expensive.

[alarp33]

 

I'm curious why you chose to slightly inflate Swihart's 2015 OPS and then use Escobar's 2016 OPS to make your point. 

 

I'm also curious why you chose to only use Escobar's OBP. 

 

Escobar has more at-bats than Swihart and the exact same career slugging. 

 

Now... If you'd like to give up Berrios for that. I can't stop you but I'll be asking for Terry Ryan to come back and replace you as GM. 

 

I used Swihart and Escobar's career numbers according to Baseball reference, what was wrong about those numbers?

 

I used OBP because as you said, their slg% is the same, and OPS is a pretty poor stat anyways since most agree OBP  >>>  SLG% 

 

I don't know enough about Swihart, other than prospect rankings and looking at the numbers.  I don't think I ever once said I would give up Berrios for him... but it certainly would take a heck of a lot more than some of the other names thrown around on here (Duffey, Gibson, Santana, etc).  I would certainly give up Jay or Gonsalves.. thought I think the Red Sox would decline quickly. 

 

Has the prospect luster worn off or something, I know they have Vazquez, but they have plenty of prospects and money He was Keith Law's 10th ranked prospect going into last season.  I don't see them giving up something of value for a scrap heap Twins pitcher. 

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

WAR, what is it good for?