International signings

[old nurse]

 

Bah, it's not like international signings turn into Sano, Kepler, or even Polanco types....why bother?

Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Javier Pimentel, Angst because they don't have 10 names that you can think are the next superstar?

[Mike Sixel]

No, angst because they aren't using every penny to get guys.....either a handful of the top guys, or lots and lots of guys.....my point should have been clear, this is one path to acquire talent, and they Twins, so far, have not gone in this year totally.

[darin617]

So this is a sad year for the Twins signing international players. They spent money like they went crazy last year and got fined for over spending. Well this thread is dead now that is buried in an old post it was related to.

[gunnarthor]

 

No, angst because they aren't using every penny to get guys.....either a handful of the top guys, or lots and lots of guys.....my point should have been clear, this is one path to acquire talent, and they Twins, so far, have not gone in this year totally.

I believe they've used every penny, every year.  It looks like they are going quantity over quality this year - as opposed to last year where they used their entire pool on one player. 

[nicksaviking]

I believe they've used every penny, every year. It looks like they are going quantity over quality this year - as opposed to last year where they used their entire pool on one player.

 

I'd think the way it is now, if the Twins will not go past their cap, the quality option will be forever off the table. Every other year the other teams will just outbid them on the top 50 or so guys and be content paying the overage penalty.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd think the way it is now, if the Twins will not go past their cap, the quality option will be forever off the table. Every other year the other teams will just outbid them on the top 50 or so guys and be content paying the overage penalty.

Well that's not true.  Wander Javier was a top guy last year.  So was Ynoa the year before.  I think we're a bit too concerned about the cap but, in any event, the Twins do spend their cap.

[bird]

 

No, angst because they aren't using every penny to get guys.....either a handful of the top guys, or lots and lots of guys.....my point should have been clear, this is one path to acquire talent, and they Twins, so far, have not gone in this year totally.

 

 

Let's not automatically assume the worst at this stage of things, for two very good reasons:

 

 1. They can and will sign additional IFA's during this signing period, just like they have in many previous years. We have no real idea how much of their allotment has been spent so far.

 

2. They have essentially spent their allotment each year. Anyone claiming otherwise is either erroneous or is disingenuously quibbling about some very small remainder of far less than 5% of the total allotment.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Well that's not true.  Wander Javier was a top guy last year.  So was Ynoa the year before.  I think we're a bit too concerned about the cap but, in any event, the Twins do spend their cap.

They got some in the past, but now it appears most teams are taking advantage of the loophole. If 10 or so teams each year blow past their cap, I don't see how a team like the Twins will be able to get a top guy, the teams blowing their budget can and clearly this year did, crush any number the Twins or similar hesitant teams can offer.

 

The Dodgers, Cubs and Yankees can go all out again next year I believe. Those three teams combined could spend $150M on the draft, if the Twins stick with their 5M or so budget they won't be getting any elite prospects.

[The Wise One]

Going over the cap limit by  greater than 15%  effects the offender for 2 years.  Four or five less bidders is that much less competition

 

Sano was the prize his year, Humor me and remind me what other bonus baby that got a pile of money was successful.  Since you have access to the list, how many of them were not. 

 

Quantity over a guess at quality. A dozen Felix Jorges for $250,000   please. With attentive signings you have as good of chance as Michal Ynoa for the same  money.

 

I don't recall Wilson Ramos being much of a big deal, big dollar guy.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I thought the post I was reacting to said they did not spend their allotment this year.....if that is in error, then great, I have no issues.

 

You want a list of guys signed that did well? Sano, Kepler, Polanco.....and that's just MN.....

[nicksaviking]

 

I thought the post I was reacting to said they did not spend their allotment this year.....if that is in error, then great, I have no issues.

 

You want a list of guys signed that did well? Sano, Kepler, Polanco.....and that's just MN.....

 

That may have been my post and I don't have a clue. I was just going off of the BA link where the highest bonus was less than 500K. 

 

Clearly the front office was in turmoil during this time, hopefully it didn't impact any signings.

[gunnarthor]

 

They got some in the past, but now it appears most teams are taking advantage of the loophole. If 10 or so teams each year blow past their cap, I don't see how a team like the Twins will be able to get a top guy, the teams blowing their budget can and clearly this year did, crush any number the Twins or similar hesitant teams can offer.

 

I think it's tough to make that claim when just last year they got a top ten guy.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's not automatically assume the worst at this stage of things, for two very good reasons:

 

 1. They can and will sign additional IFA's during this signing period, just like they have in many previous years. We have no real idea how much of their allotment has been spent so far.

 

2. They have essentially spent their allotment each year. Anyone claiming otherwise is either erroneous or is disingenuously quibbling about some very small remainder of far less than 5% of the total allotment.

Although they could just "spend it to spend it", that is, spend the leftover amount less carefully just to use it up later in the signing period.

 

It's like a draft -- sure, every team may make the same number of picks -- no team is just going to quit drafting 10 rounds early -- but that doesn't mean every team has a good, thorough, effective draft strategy.

 

It's hard to say exactly what they're doing from afar, but I don't get a great sense of plan or direction in their international moves to date.  (Which kind of applies to a number of areas in the second TR regime, frankly).

[gunnarthor]

 

Although they could just "spend it to spend it", that is, spend the leftover amount less carefully just to use it up later in the signing period.

 

It's like a draft -- sure, every team may make the same number of picks -- no team is just going to quit drafting 10 rounds early -- but that doesn't mean every team has a good, thorough, effective draft strategy.

 

It's hard to say exactly what they're doing from afar, but I don't get a great sense of plan or direction in their international moves to date.  (Which kind of applies to a number of areas in the second TR regime, frankly).

Bluntly, we're signing 16 year old kids so any return is 6 to 8 years away.  We're just starting to see returns from the 09 group.  It's way too early to decide how they've done under the second Ryan regime.  Some years they've gone quality and others they've gone quantity.  Just like other teams.  

 

IIRC, and I might not, Amaurys Minier was a huge signing in 2012 and he's just now - at 20 - having a solid season in low A ball.  Same with Lewin Diaz, signed a year later.  I think in 2011, the Twins went quantity and nabbed both Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero for .5m combined  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bluntly, we're signing 16 year old kids so any return is 6 to 8 years away.  We're just starting to see returns from the 09 group.  It's way too early to decide how they've done under the second Ryan regime.  Some years they've gone quality and others they've gone quantity.  Just like other teams. 

I think there are ways to evaluate our performance in this arena other than waiting 6-8 years.  Not that we have the best insight into it from afar, of course, and it's hard not to wonder what was going on this summer.  It was apparently sometime in June when TR was told he wasn't coming back, and a month later he decided he didn't want to be a lame duck.  I hope none of that carried over into our July 2nd activity or lack thereof -- reports also suggest that TR kept it a secret pretty well (i.e. Antony didn't know), but it's hard not to wonder if TR shied away from approving July 2nd aggressiveness this year, either in quantity or quality.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

IIRC, and I might not, Amaurys Minier was a huge signing in 2012 and he's just now - at 20 - having a solid season in low A ball.  Same with Lewin Diaz, signed a year later.

FYI, Minier and Diaz have yet to make it out of rookie league ball.  Looks like they are teammates of Kiriloff in Elizabethton:

 

http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t576

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I think there are ways to evaluate our performance in this arena other than waiting 6-8 years.  Not that we have the best insight into it from afar, of course, and it's hard not to wonder what was going on this summer.  It was apparently sometime in June when TR was told he wasn't coming back, and a month later he decided he didn't want to be a lame duck.  I hope none of that carried over into our July 2nd activity or lack thereof -- reports also suggest that TR kept it a secret pretty well (i.e. Antony didn't know), but it's hard not to wonder if TR shied away from approving July 2nd aggressiveness this year, either in quantity or quality.

I would doubt that.  First, Ryan has always been a pretty good company man.  We don't know as much about the international stuff but his draft was the draft of a guy looking out for the longterm goals of the organization.  I wouldn't think Ryan would hurt our international signing work and since we had a pool in place, I'm pretty sure Ryan was going to spend it and the GM isn't the guy who does the ground work there.  And, frankly, I suspect the Twins were talking about their July 2nd plans before May.

 

And again, we made big signings in 2012 (Minier), 2013 (Diaz), 2015 (Javier) and went quantity in 2014 and 2016 (IIRC).  I have no idea how we can judge the 2014 class (for instance). We're just now seeing the 2012 and 13 classes start to matriculate into rookie ball.  I think the 2011 signings look good b/c of Jorge and Romero.  So, as long as the Twins spend their pool - which they will - I'm not going to worry.

[Mike Sixel]

Minier and Diaz were not my first choices as BIG signings, I hope to be proven wrong on those.

[nicksaviking]

So, as long as the Twins spend their pool - which they will - I'm not going to worry.

I'm wondering what your feelings are on spending over the pool as is the trend with many if not most teams these days?

 

Like myself, I would guess the frustration for many others doesn't really stem from whether or not the Twins actually spent all of their 2.4M, it stems from not taking advantage of the loophole. It's not like only the big market teams are doing it, Oakland, San Diego, Cincinnati, Tampa, St. Louis and Atlanta have all done it if memory serves. Shouldn't we feel disappointed that our team isn't doing all they can to get as many elite Latin players as possible?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would doubt that.  First, Ryan has always been a pretty good company man.  We don't know as much about the international stuff but his draft was the draft of a guy looking out for the longterm goals of the organization.  I wouldn't think Ryan would hurt our international signing work and since we had a pool in place, I'm pretty sure Ryan was going to spend it and the GM isn't the guy who does the ground work there.  And, frankly, I suspect the Twins were talking about their July 2nd plans before May.

I didn't mean to suggest that Ryan would do anything deliberately, but if he was sensing the end (and maybe this predates June, or May), he might unconsciously have been less aggressive (although TR hardly needs an excuse to do that ), perhaps out of a feeling of being a "good company man" and wanting to leave options/flexibility for Antony or another successor.  He did walk away well before the trade deadline, after all.

 

And I know he doesn't do the international ground work, but he directs it and ultimately approves it -- maybe a scout came to him with an opportunity to go bigger late (maybe someone's agreement with another team fell through) and he shied away from approving it?  Maybe he didn't make a push to sign those guys released from their Red Sox deals?

 

I have no great confidence that any of these things are true, of course.  But they wouldn't surprise me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And again, we made big signings in 2012 (Minier), 2013 (Diaz), 2015 (Javier) and went quantity in 2014 and 2016 (IIRC).  I have no idea how we can judge the 2014 class (for instance). We're just now seeing the 2012 and 13 classes start to matriculate into rookie ball.  I think the 2011 signings look good b/c of Jorge and Romero.  So, as long as the Twins spend their pool - which they will - I'm not going to worry.

The other issue, which Mike hints at, is that not all "big" signings are equal.  I know the international market is still very much a crap shoot (perhaps in more ways than one ), but the Twins could be honing in on the wrong "big" signings, in addition to the wrong number/mix of "big" signings when limited by our pool.

 

A team going over it's pool can still sign guys for $300k the following two years, so if you were really not planning to spend $500k on any one player this year, it might have been wise to break the pool last year?  And if it's really a crap shoot, being limited to $300k isn't that big of a deal.

[bird]

 

I think there are ways to evaluate our performance in this arena other than waiting 6-8 years.  Not that we have the best insight into it from afar, of course, and it's hard not to wonder what was going on this summer.  It was apparently sometime in June when TR was told he wasn't coming back, and a month later he decided he didn't want to be a lame duck.  I hope none of that carried over into our July 2nd activity or lack thereof -- reports also suggest that TR kept it a secret pretty well (i.e. Antony didn't know), but it's hard not to wonder if TR shied away from approving July 2nd aggressiveness this year, either in quantity or quality.

 

A couple things:

 

1. Take a look at the progress of what the pros considered to be the top 20 IFA's in 2011. From all appearances when I look at that list, my guess is the fans of about 29 teams are questioning whether their club has any sense of direction or strategy.

 

2. The international scouting infrastructure has structure to it. Terry Ryan had so little to do with what took place on July 2nd. IIRC, Ryan said he never went out to watch Tyler Jay throw a baseball. If that's the case, I hardly think he sauntered down under to study Lachlan Wells. The guys being signed right now have been on the scouts' radar for a long long time.

 

3. It seems to me that the only way to pass judgment on the IFA performance in the earlier stages is to carefully examine the pipeline and compare it to the competition. Two things stand out to me. One is that we have a slightly higher proportion of foreign-born prospects in our system than the average organization, so it's not like we're not playing. Second, we have our fair share of successes. Of course, much of this is due to Billy Smith single-handedly scouting, developing relationships, outmaneuvering, and adroitly negotiating, and subsequently developing Sano, Buxton, and Kepler, although he must have turned the development of Buxton over to Ryan a year or so ago and concentrated on Kepler.

[bird]

 

Minier and Diaz were not my first choices as BIG signings, I hope to be proven wrong on those.

 

 

Apparently you disagreed with those bozos at BA and some of those other nitwits out there. 

 

IIRC, Minier was #7 on their list and #22 on another list, and Diaz was #10 on their list. If BIG signings were equally distributed among all 30 teams, those would qualify, right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Apparently you disagreed with those bozos at BA and some of those other nitwits out there. 

 

IIRC, Minier was #7 on their list and #22 on another list, and Diaz was #10 on their list. If BIG signings were equally distributed among all 30 teams, those would qualify, right?

If all it took to run a competent MLB front office was signing players based on published rankings, the Twins could save a lot of money!

 

Seriously, I think it's fair to hold the Twins front office to a higher standard than that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A couple things:

 

1. Take a look at the progress of what the pros considered to be the top 20 IFA's in 2011. From all appearances when I look at that list, my guess is the fans of about 29 teams are questioning whether their club has any sense of direction or strategy.

 

2. The international scouting infrastructure has structure to it. Terry Ryan had so little to do with what took place on July 2nd. IIRC, Ryan said he never went out to watch Tyler Jay throw a baseball. If that's the case, I hardly think he sauntered down under to study Lachlan Wells. The guys being signed right now have been on the scouts' radar for a long long time.

 

3. It seems to me that the only way to pass judgment on the IFA performance in the earlier stages is to carefully examine the pipeline and compare it to the competition. Two things stand out to me. One is that we have a slightly higher proportion of foreign-born prospects in our system than the average organization, so it's not like we're not playing. Second, we have our fair share of successes. Of course, much of this is due to Billy Smith single-handedly scouting, developing relationships, outmaneuvering, and adroitly negotiating, and subsequently developing Sano, Buxton, and Kepler, although he must have turned the development of Buxton over to Ryan a year or so ago and concentrated on Kepler.

 

Cool it, funny guy.  I never once said that TR was personally scouting players, and if you continued reading the next couple posts you would see that was explicitly clarified after a polite response from another poster.  I'm not sure if your "jokes" at my expense were particularly worth posting the second they came into your head.

[bird]

 

If all it took to run a competent MLB front office was signing players based on published rankings, the Twins could save a lot of money!

 

Seriously, I think it's fair to hold the Twins front office to a higher standard than that.

 

 

You can't possibly think they're reading and discussing this stuff and ignoring their scouts, can you? They liked Minier. They liked Diaz. By sheer coincidence, the ninnies at BA must've agreed. 

 

I think we can be very confident the Twins do operate at a much higher standard than that, right? Do you think otherwise? 

 

[bird]

Sorry, spycake, I was making light of the oft-repeated opinion about Billy Smith's role in signing Sano, Polanco, and Kepler, but didn't intend for it to be at your expense. My bad. I'm not suggesting that's your narrative at all.

 

I didn't begin to suggest that you were thinking Ryan was out there with his binoculars. I was merely pointing out how unlikely it is that all the wheels that have been churning for a year or more leading up to July 2nd would be knocked off the tracks by Ryan's departure. If Ryan sabotaged their efforts, even unintentionally, you can imagine the reaction of a few dozen employees who have worked their butts off, most of whom were hired by Ryan, and these are people who by all accounts share great mutual respect with him. I just can't imagine the whole concerted IFA effort being compromised given all the resources and people involved even more intensely than Terry Ryan in the process.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

If all it took to run a competent MLB front office was signing players based on published rankings, the Twins could save a lot of money!

 

Seriously, I think it's fair to hold the Twins front office to a higher standard than that.

Who isn't?  The gripe has been the Twins don't sign any big name guys.  Well, we showed that they did by using BA's list.  So you moved the goal posts to BA doesn't define the big names.  OK.  Fine.  So now you want to grade by results.  Fine.  We point out that the 2011 and 12 classes are just now entering rookie or A ball.  Earlier classes had pretty good results.  So now you want to complaint about the later classes based entirely on rankings.  Do you see the circular logic problem?  

[gunnarthor]

 

 

A team going over it's pool can still sign guys for $300k the following two years, so if you were really not planning to spend $500k on any one player this year, it might have been wise to break the pool last year?  And if it's really a crap shoot, being limited to $300k isn't that big of a deal.

The Pohlad's aren't going to go out of the pool.  It's the same complaint we have when they don't sign Grienkie in free agency.  It's not going to happen so just move on.  We have ****ty owners.  The FO seems to be doing ok with the hand they are dealt.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Am I missing something? The Twins do not pay attention to BA, but you're aware of that, right? You can't possibly think they're reading and discussing this stuff and ignoring their scouts, can you? They liked Minier. They liked Diaz. By sheer coincidence, the ninnies at BA must've agreed. 

What I'm saying is, the Twins job isn't to sign publicly ranked/regarded players -- the Twins job is to sign (and develop) the correct ranked/regarded players.  Their moves aren't necessarily above reproach just because they sign ranked/regarded players.  Obviously no one will hit at 100% at that, it's well less than that for international amateurs, but it feels like the Twins might be hitting below the average here.  And it definitely feels like the same front office has been hitting below the average in other areas too, namely MLB and international FA, so it feels like their might be some structural weaknesses at play.