Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the new front office is basically Stewart's only chance at this point, to be good and not just a AAAA journeyman type. I don't know how realistic it is, but I'd be curious to at least see what happened if Stewart started mixing in 4-seamers at the top of or above the strike zone.

 

That's what KLAW wants him to do, btw....

[Mike Sixel]

I tweeted with Dave Cameron, fwiw, he thinks the Twins blew it.

[drjim]

 

I tweeted with Dave Cameron, fwiw, he thinks the Twins blew it.

 

Makes sense from his perspective. He is probably the top national guy on De Leon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Makes sense from his perspective. He is probably the top national guy on De Leon.

 

Agreed.

[drivlikejehu]

Cameron has a thing for soft-tossing RHPs with good change-ups. His track record on pitching projections isn't real great though, from memory . . . I know he was really pessimistic about Cleveland because their staff relied too much on velocity compared to command.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I tend to believe 2017 is going to make or break Kohl Stewart.  One more year of mulling around with inconsistency and lower expectations and I think it's time to give up the ghost.  Or he shocks us and gives us some hope in our pitching minors.

I don't know if 2017 is make or break for Stewart. I don't know how long it will take to change the organizational philosophy of the minor league coaching staff. That may make Stewart's "do or die" season come in 2018, which could decide his fate as a reliever or starter.

 

2017 will be important, though. We need to see some kind of progress with that K rate.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW has Rmoero at 65....starter stuff, but some reliever risk in the delivery. Best shot of any of their guys to be a number 1 or 2 starter.

 

seriously, subscribe to insider, it's cheap. the write up is pretty long per guy.

[d-mac]

 

I tweeted with Dave Cameron, fwiw, he thinks the Twins blew it.

 

Could you say the Twins whiffed?   

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know if 2017 is make or break for Stewart. I don't know how long it will take to change the organizational philosophy of the minor league coaching staff. That may make Stewart's "do or die" season come in 2018, which could decide his fate as a reliever or starter.

 

2017 will be important, though. We need to see some kind of progress with that K rate.

 

You may well be right.  But every year we say that it feels like the odds of him every being a contributor go down significantly.

[Mike Sixel]

David
1:58 Where do you see Dozier going now/at the deadline? Giants? Cardinals? Nats? Mets? Does any "likely" team have a prospect package that entices the Twins?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:58 I think Minnesota waits for someone to get hurt so they can leverage that club. Of course, if Dozier starts slow....

[Mike Sixel]

Kevin
2:58 How do you feel about Alex Kirilloff and Fernando Romero? I think they will be studs respectfully

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:58 I really like Kirilloff, think there's a chance Romero is a reliever.

[jimmer]

Cameron has a thing for soft-tossing RHPs with good change-ups. His track record on pitching projections isn't real great though, from memory . . . I know he was really pessimistic about Cleveland because their staff relied too much on velocity compared to command.

I read Cameron a lot and I have never heard this point of view expressed by him.

[drjim]

 

I read Cameron a lot and I have never heard this point of view expressed by him.

 

Have you listened to his podcasts? I consume that more than his writings. He pretty clearly (and self-admittedly) rates RHPs with good changeups and lower velocities higher than most everyone else. Or has a thing for them, if you want to phrase it that way.

 

I don't know about the track record of his analysis though.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick Gordon is number 53 on KLAW's list:

 

"can really, really hit"

 

"tools allow him to be an average big leaguer, but....will allow him to be more"

[drivlikejehu]

 

I read Cameron a lot and I have never heard this point of view expressed by him.

 

He talks about it all the time in chats and podcasts. Doesn't necessarily write feature articles on it.

[jimmer]

He talks about it all the time in chats and podcasts. Doesn't necessarily write feature articles on it.

never read it in his weekly Fangraphs chats, which I read and/or participate in every week. I will be looking out and asking him about it though.

[Mike Sixel]

Murdoc: Where’s the best landing spot for Dozier now?

 

9:19
Paul Swydan: I fear that he won’t be going anywhere until the trade deadline or until a contender suffers a debilitating injury.

 

Hack Wilson: Any optimism that Forsythe has set a higher market value for Dozier and a good first half will net the Twins more that JDL and stuff?

 

9:27
Paul Swydan: No, but I admire your optimism for such a scenario.

[markos]

 

never read it in his weekly Fangraphs chats, which I read and/or participate in every week. I will be looking out and asking him about it though.

He has often brought it up with regard to pitchers from Korea and Japan, who frequently have better results in the US than their raw stuff would indicate. And many of those pitchers (both starters and relievers) primarily get by with fastball-changeup or fastball-splitter combinations. 

[jimmer]

He has often brought it up with regard to pitchers from Korea and Japan, who frequently have better results in the US than their raw stuff would indicate. And many of those pitchers (both starters and relievers) primarily get by with fastball-changeup or fastball-splitter combinations.

I believe everyone who has said Cameron has said these things. Saying I havent heard or read that he said them doesnt mean I dont believe it. I will be looking out and asking him about it in the future.

[jimmer]

Nick Gordon is number 53 on KLAW's list:

 

"can really, really hit"

 

"tools allow him to be an average big leaguer, but....will allow him to be more"

mlb's new list has him #9 prospect at shortstop with the potential to be a solid shorstop. Call him 'consistent'

 

Fangraphs propsect guy says he has hit well, but hasnt added much strength. His defense is smooth and projectable as opposed to crisp and mature. Not all scouts are totally sure he is going to stay at shortstop anymore.

[d-mac]

 

Nick Gordon is number 53 on KLAW's list:

 

"can really, really hit"

 

"tools allow him to be an average big leaguer, but....will allow him to be more"

 

I'd never use that description on Gordon. LOL

[Mike Sixel]

5 Run Homer
12:05 Minnesota really screwed thrmselves, didn't they? They squandered the only logical trade partner for their star player at the peak of his trade value. What do they do with Dozier now?

 

Dave Cameron
12:05 Yeah, I think they messed up not getting De Leon, but as always, caveats about medicals and what we don't know included. I don't think there's any real chance Dozier's trade value goes up from here, though.

[Mike Sixel]

Weezy
12:08 What factors have Jose De Leon looking like an ace on projection systems? Is it his dominance of Rookie ball as a 22 yo?

 

Dave Cameron
12:09 He's never posted a K% below 30% at any level. 6% BB%, 33% K% in Triple-A last year. There's a reason the projections love him; guys who miss bats like this are almost always good.

[jimmer]

Cameron today explained why he likes De Leon. Never posted a K% lower than 30% at any level. 6% BB%, 33% K% in triple a last year. Then he says 'there is a reason the projections love him. Guys who miss bats like this are almost always good.'

 

Beat me to it, Mike. Its what happens when one can copy and paste and the other has to type it :-)

[Mike Sixel]

Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:13 Biggest loser in the LAD-TB De Leon - Forsythe deal has to be Minnesota, right? Is there any remaining erstwhile contender with a major 2B need? Do the Twins have to hope for Dozier to keep raking into the All Star break and for a contender to develop a need, in order to reap a reward they could have had if they had not gotten greedy?

 

Dave Cameron
12:14 Best case for Twins now might be to try and re-sign Dozier again, see if they can get more than the two years left they still have, and hope he ages like Kinsler.

[Mike Sixel]

not the twins, but, 

 

cheese
12:24 Does the upgrade from Howie Kendrick to Forsyth justify the loss of DeLeon?

 

Dave Cameron
12:24 Not to me.
And even without Kendrick, they could have just brought back Utley and platooned him with Hernandez or Taylor.
Plus I know Willie Calhoun is odd shaped and maybe can't field, but he's close-ish and can hit.

[drjim]

 

Cameron today explained why he likes De Leon. Never posted a K% lower than 30% at any level. 6% BB%, 33% K% in triple a last year. Then he says 'there is a reason the projections love him. Guys who miss bats like this are almost always good.'

Beat me to it, Mike. Its what happens when one can copy and paste and the other has to type it :-)

 

De Leon strikes me as a classic stats vs scouting/history split. Plus changeup guys with decent command that are a little light on velocity and don't have a great breaking pitch will generally outperform their stuff moving up the minors. They can absolutely make it in the bigs, but they have less margin for error.

 

And I personally am a little concerned with durability. Further narrows the odds.

[Mike Sixel]

since I can copy and paste:

 

jimmer
12:30 You seem higher on De Leon than many, I've heard said it's because you say you prefer softer-tossing RHP with good change ups (I'm guessing that means more control type pitchers) than guys with more velocity? Is this the case?

 

Dave Cameron
12:30 I think the history of prospect ratings shows that guys with plus change-ups and command perform better then their rankings suggest, and guys with big velo/breaking balls/bad command/bad performance do worse than their rankings show.
12:31 I don't think De Leon is going to be Kershaw or something, but if he's James Shields, well, then he's going to have a better career than 99% of other pitching prospects, including the ones who throw harder or have nicer breaking balls.

[jimmer]

since I can copy and paste:

 

jimmer

12:30 You seem higher on De Leon than many, I've heard said it's because you say you prefer softer-tossing RHP with good change ups (I'm guessing that means more control type pitchers) than guys with more velocity? Is this the case?

 

Dave Cameron

12:30 I think the history of prospect ratings shows that guys with plus change-ups and command perform better then their rankings suggest, and guys with big velo/breaking balls/bad command/bad performance do worse than their rankings show.

12:31 I don't think De Leon is going to be Kershaw or something, but if he's James Shields, well, then he's going to have a better career than 99% of other pitching prospects, including the ones who throw harder or have nicer breaking balls.

I said today I would ask the question and I did. Glad to see him answer it and I like his response.

[drjim]

 

since I can copy and paste:

 

jimmer
12:30 You seem higher on De Leon than many, I've heard said it's because you say you prefer softer-tossing RHP with good change ups (I'm guessing that means more control type pitchers) than guys with more velocity? Is this the case?

 

Dave Cameron
12:30 I think the history of prospect ratings shows that guys with plus change-ups and command perform better then their rankings suggest, and guys with big velo/breaking balls/bad command/bad performance do worse than their rankings show.
12:31 I don't think De Leon is going to be Kershaw or something, but if he's James Shields, well, then he's going to have a better career than 99% of other pitching prospects, including the ones who throw harder or have nicer breaking balls.

 

I wonder if he has evidence for this. Seems like something that could be analyzed deeper. A Shields reference makes me think he remembers outliers.

 

The comp that comes to my mind from reading up on De Leon is Kevin Slowey. Able to have some success, especially initially, but doesn't last especially long.