Which Twins Players Would You Protect in an Expansion Draft?

[gopherman23]

Inspired by a reddit post on r/baseball, which 15 players would you protect?

 

Using the expansion draft rules from 1997, each team gets to protect 15 players. The expansion team(s) can then draft from the remaining players. Who would your 15 protected players be?

 

Here are the specific rules:

Fifteen players from the rosters of their entire organization -- both their 40-man roster, plus all minor league affiliates -- are protected.

 

Players chosen in the 2015 and 2016 amateur drafts are automatically protected, plus players who were 18 or younger when signed in 2014.

 

Players who are free agents after the end of the 2016 season need not be protected.

 

Here is the list I came up with:

 

Byron Buxton

Miguel Sano

Jose Berrios

Brian Dozier

Eddie Rosario

Trevor May

Nick Gordon

JR. Murphy

Max Kepler

Kyle Gibson

Tyler Duffey

Byung Ho Park

Eduardo Escobar

Jorge Polanco

Nick Burdi

[Shane Wahl]

Wow that is hectic. I would have thought it would be more than 15. Obviously Mauer is probably still protected by his contract from being selected.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting idea, but it seems kind of silly to try to predict it a year in advance.  The 1997 teams certainly didn't have to do that.  Might make more sense to do it as of November 2015.

 

I'd say there's a decent chance you wouldn't want to protect Park next winter, and possibly Burdi, Murphy, and Polanco too.  Actually, next winter Dozier will only have 2 years and $15 mil remaining on his contract, Escobar will only have 2 more seasons of control, Gibson 3, probably still protect them but you could possibly make a case not to if they have disappointing 2016 seasons.

 

Also note that there were only 70 slots in the 1997 draft, and no team could lose more than 3 guys, so it's not liked one organization could be ravaged.

 

Might be more interesting to think about who we might lose -- for next winter, using your protected list, that might be Meyer, Walker, Stewart?  Or Gonsalves, or Turner? Depending on how their 2016 seasons go, I am not sure we'd really feel that loss too much.

 

[tobi0040]

Tyler Jay is on my top 15. I don't think Park or Escobar are on my top 15.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tyler Jay is on my top 15. I don't think Park or Escobar are on my top 15.

2015 draftees are automatically protected (as would 2016 draftees, since the hypothetical draft is next winter).

 

Actually, would Gordon be automatically protected too?  2014 draftee, but only 18 when signed that year.

[gunnarthor]

Under your list, we'd (potentially) lose a bunch of our ML ready now pitching - Hughes, Santana, Milone and Nolasco.  Plus our starting third baseman and first baseman.  And our closer and top set up man.  I can't remember how the expansion drafts went, way back when, but I think a closer was the first pick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Under your list, we'd (potentially) lose a bunch of our ML ready now pitching - Hughes, Santana, Milone and Nolasco.  Plus our starting third baseman and first baseman.  And our closer and top set up man.  I can't remember how the expansion drafts went, way back when, but I think a closer was the first pick.

Remember, this hypothetical draft is for NEXT winter.  I don't know why, but that's what it is, and it's very confusing.

 

In any case, Jepsen will be a FA then, Plouffe will only be a year away from FA, same for Nolasco and two years for Mauer, Perkins, Milone, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here are the results from the last expansion draft:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Major_League_Baseball_expansion_draft#Results

 

The top 3 picks were starting pitchers.  Doesn't look like many or any expensive veterans or soon-to-be-FA's were selected.  The Diamondbacks were certainly willing to pay money for players that winter too.

 

Would be interesting to see drafting teams strategy today.

[tobi0040]

 

Here are the results from the last expansion draft:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Major_League_Baseball_expansion_draft#Results

 

The top 3 picks were starting pitchers.  Doesn't look like many or any expensive veterans or soon-to-be-FA's were selected.  The Diamondbacks were certainly willing to pay money for players that winter too.

 

Would be interesting to see drafting teams strategy today.

 

I would guess a team would draft one guy they could have in commercials and a bunch of good, young players and prospects

[alarp33]

 

Under your list, we'd (potentially) lose a bunch of our ML ready now pitching - Hughes, Santana, Milone and Nolasco.  Plus our starting third baseman and first baseman.  And our closer and top set up man.  I can't remember how the expansion drafts went, way back when, but I think a closer was the first pick.

 

Umm no expansion team would choose to take on those contracts. Milone is cheap, so I guess maybe he would be picked in this hypothetical

[gunnarthor]

 

Umm no expansion team would choose to take on those contracts. Milone is cheap, so I guess maybe he would be picked in this hypothetical

Probably depends on the budget and what other teams have available.  As Spycake noted, this exercise takes place a year from now so some of those guys would be gone anyway.  But you could take Perkins on a year 6.5 deal (with a team option).  I think an expansion team would take that - they could trade him in season since relief pitchers are always in demand.

[Winston Smith]

I bet Nolasco would be the first pick! 

[jud6312]

I really like this idea a lot. There's some on my list that others will likely scoff at, but I put decent value on power - both bats and arms - and in the case of a tie, lefties got the nod.

 

In no particular order:

• Byron Buxton
• Miguel Sano
• Max Kepler
• Jose Berrios
• Jorge Polanco
• Stephen Gonsalves
• Lewis Thorpe
• Nick Gordon
• Nick Burdi
• Tyler Duffey
• Oswaldo Arcia
• Mitch Garver
• JR Murphy
• Trevor May
• Tyler Jay

I debated on guys like Chargois, Reed, Meyer, based on upside, but given the unknowns with them, I'd be surprised if they'd get picked. I also considered Eddie Rosario, but after I gave it more thought I realized that while I like him and am glad he's on the team, I wouldn't be destroyed if he were moved.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But you could take Perkins on a year 6.5 deal (with a team option).  I think an expansion team would take that - they could trade him in season since relief pitchers are always in demand.

Such a pitcher might be nice, but an expansion team only gets 35 picks, and only 3 guys can be selected from each team.  I don't think they'd waste one of those getting a 34 year old reliever (likely non-elite, unless he majorly rebounds) for one year at $6.5 mil.  They can approximate that on the FA market.  Even if he performs well, flipping him midseason you'd probably be lucky to get a guy like Gonsalves or Stewart in return, so you might as well just take one of those prospects in the draft instead if available.

 

I think they would want to load up on lotto tickets, young guys, and longer-term options.  A new team can't easily get those guys elsewhere -- that's the whole point of the expansion draft.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

I think they would want to load up on lotto tickets, young guys, and longer-term options.  A new team can't easily get those guys elsewhere -- that's the whole point of the expansion draft.

Maybe.  Looking at the list of protected guys by the OP and not taking a guy making much, I think the best prospect not protected would probably be Stewart or Meyer.  Probably depends on how good your scouting department was at that point.  

[nicksaviking]

I don't think the team would have to worry a whole lot about losing top young prospects that aren't MLB ready as we might think. The expansion draft was designed for the two new teams to fill out their 40-man and 25-man. Looking at the results, almost everyone drafted made it to the majors, which suggests they were already at the MLB level or close to it.

 

Most of these guys would have to be MLB ready because the other main way these teams filled out rosters was through the June draft. The D-Backs had 60 draft picks in 1997 and the Rays had 92! Most teams have 40-50. Obviously you're not going to fill out your 40-man with the guys picked in round 80 of the previous years draft.

[dgwills]

I can't help but notice the Twins lost an all-star in the last expansion draft. Don't want that happening again. I tried making a list, but realized it would take me forever to make the last few choices. The Twins would likely lose 3 players with the amount of good prospects and young players they have.

[Vanimal46]

I'm just going to throw this out there before the fan club jumps on this....

Adam Brett Walker. Have a great weekend everyone.