Three Teams

[ThejacKmp]

 

A:  I could be misremembering, but I thought it was pretty well established that the Twins DIDN'T contact Madden.

 

B:  You're missing the forest for the trees.  The overall point is larger than the individual details of one specific person.  

 

The Cubs think big, and look for ways to excel.  They worry less about the potential costs than the potential gains.

 

The Twins think small, and look for ways not to fail.  They worry less about the potential gains than the potential dangers.

 

Yes, the Cubs have a few resource advantages.  Focusing on that, yet again, misses the point.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-talked-to-joe-maddon-about-manager-job-sources-say/280875292/

 

They talked to him.

 

And if teams like the Twins don't pay attention to the costs, they end up wasting a generation of talent. Sometimes building slow is okay, especially when you have Sano/Buxton and co.

[ThejacKmp]

 

In terms of experience and salary, Hughes was a closer asset match for Feldman than for Arrieta, that's all I was saying.  (And indeed, ultimately the Twins may have been better off flipping Hughes as the Cubs did Feldman, especially if Ervin Santana was next on their FA shopping list.)

 

 

You are missing the point if you think the problem with Pelfrey and Correia is that they were blocking internal options.  Putting it in those terms is exactly the issue many of us have with the Twins thinking.  The Twins are too often content to simply fill roster spots with mediocre players (even in projected mediocre rebuilding seasons) rather than looking for higher upside / flippable assets.

 

And if they did it next year, I'd also be upset. If Pelfrey has an opening day rotation spot, it's a crime. But I think you're overblowing how awful it was to sign Pelfrey (less so Correia, who had no upside). He was a lottery ticket (albeit one with a low ceiling) who got hurt and was effective for awhile and then not. 

 

Hughes would be interesting to flip last year, you certainly could have gotten something for him. The Twins do hold onto guys (though I think seeing him as part of your core going forward is defensible). Willingham springs to mind most. Hughes was towards the end of rebuiling and you can defend keeping him. Willingham cannot (though that was Bill Smith, who did not forsee the Twins sucking for some reason).

 

People consistently keep acting like Arrieta was some given thing that all kinds of teams were drooling over. Go back and read some articles about the trade. He was a throw in guy. Tons of guys like him get traded or dropped every year because they are an "eternal prospect". Occasionally they work out.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/trade-orioles-scott-feldman-cubs-jake-arrieta-pedro-182847335.html

[bluechipper]

 

No he wouldn't. He would have signed Samardjiza to expensive long-term contract through his 30's, because veterans >>>>>>>>> young, cheap, rookies in TR's mind. No Russell, plus all the risk of Samardjiza's arm falling off and being stuck with a fat contract.

 

There was no "luck" with Arrieta. He's always had the stuff to get K's and likely just needed a change of scenery. The Cubs saw something they could fix, and acquire a talented arm at a discounted price and made the deal. Arrieta has now been pitching at an elite level for two full seasons now. There is no luck there. That is how well run-ball clubs operate. 

You're honestly saying that a guy with a 5.56 ERA over 4 seasons transforming himself into one of the best pitchers in baseball has no element of luck? Sure he had talent, but his perceived upside was similar to that of Phil Hughes at the time of his signing. The difference between good(Hughes) and great (Arrieta) is a lot of luck.

[DaveW]

 

I never read that ... is that really what Maddon said?

No, but he turned them down and never considered them. He choose a team ran by Epstein.

[DaveW]

 

If the Twins wanted to unload him they could in a second on that contract (barring injury or him suddenly losing all control).

Are you sure about that?

[Foghorn Leghorn]

We will be up there with them once Berrios gets called up and if Arcia ever gets his head out of his butt.

[Vanimal46]

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-talked-to-joe-maddon-about-manager-job-sources-say/280875292/

 

They talked to him.

 

 

Would have loved to be a fly on the wall during that phone call.

 

TR: "Hey Joe this is Terry."

JM: "Terry who?"

TR: "Terry Ryan, from the Minnesota Twins."

JM: "Oh, what can I do for you Terry?"

TR: "Well Joe, I just read in the newspaper that you opted out from the Tampa Bay Rays, and are already in discussions with the Cubs, but we'd love to bring you in for a formal interview to be the next manager of the Twins. What do you say?"

JM: "Hmm, you certainly have some good young talent to work with Terry, but I'm about to sign my contract with the Cubs in 30 minutes. Theo's talking about bringing in Lester to anchor the rotation. Who do you have again?"

TR: "Well, right now we have Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco leading the way! And who knows, Ervin Santana's a free agent that we've considered too."

JM: "That's it?"

TR: "Well yeah, we've really gone above and beyond the norm to bring in quality talent to the rotation. So what do you think, should we send the Pohlad's jet tomorrow to pick you up?"

JM: "And how much will the payroll be increased by each year?"

TR: "It's going to depend on a few factors Joe. The main goal is to increase gross revenue of the organization by 7%. Sometimes we see that in the payroll, sometimes we don't." 

JM: "I've been down that path before in Tampa and hated it."

TR: "I promise things will be different! We aren't cheap like they are in Tampa. Anyways I'm going to arrange for Pohlad's jet to pick you up tomorrow, sound good?"

JM: "Terry, I'm signing the contact with the Cubs this second. I'm going to have to let you go."

*phone disconnects*

 

Well Rob, we gave it our best shot. 

[bluechipper]

LOL Hughes is not a high strikeout pitcher. Have you ever look at the K rate leaders in the past five years at Fangraphs?

 

Arrieta k/9 with Bal:7.0

Hughes k/9 with NYY:7.6...so yeah.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Are you sure about that?

 

Unequivocally.  If the Twins cut Hughes this offseason, some team would claim him and pay that contract. That is the definition of a tradeable contract.  And let’s be real, Hughes would land the Twins a prospect or two. His last season was great (7th Cy Young) and teams would remember that.  Even if he was awful next year, he’d still likely be worth a waiver claim pickup.

[ThejacKmp]

 

No, but he turned them down and never considered them. He choose a team ran by Epstein.

 

The Cubs job is a better job. Anyone would take that. You have a chance to be remembered forever in that city and they have tons of money to throw at problems. The Twins are not the Rays but they don't have the resources of the Cubs.

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

They talked to him.

 

Maybe.  

 

It might depend on which beat reporter you trust more:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/10/28/twinsights-contact-twins-joe-maddon-source-says/

 

In any case...the Cubs saw something they felt was a good gamble, and they went out and got it.

 

The Twins didn't.

 

That's sort of the point.

[d-mac]

 

You're honestly saying that a guy with a 5.56 ERA over 4 seasons transforming himself into one of the best pitchers in baseball has no element of luck? Sure he had talent, but his perceived upside was similar to that of Phil Hughes at the time of his signing. The difference between good(Hughes) and great (Arrieta) is a lot of luck.

 

Yup. Luck, that he's been healthy, sure. But there was no luck to the Cubs identifying that Arrieta having that talent in him and there was no luck on Arrieta's part to achieve that level of success, just lots of hard work. I've always thought Arrieta had a ton of talent. I remember back in 2012 and 13 wishing that we would trade for him. 

[d-mac]

 

Arrieta k/9 with Bal:7.0
Hughes k/9 with NYY:7.6...so yeah.

 

Great! Not my point though.

[ThejacKmp]

 

An OPS over .850 in AA and AAA seems to disagree with you. 

Because that’s all a big league catcher does right? No one ever doubted that Pinto could hit but he’s never shown the ability to catch on the ML level. He’s significantly less valuable as a DH or 1B. Offensive numbers are pointless when it comes to talking about Pinto being ready.

[d-mac]

 

Because that’s all a big league catcher does right? No one ever doubted that Pinto could hit but he’s never shown the ability to catch on the ML level. He’s significantly less valuable as a DH or 1B. Offensive numbers are pointless when it comes to talking about Pinto being ready.

 

It's not like he's any worse than Suzuki. Suzuki is routinely rated as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And he can't throw out runners.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Maybe.  

 

It might depend on which beat reporter you trust more:

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/10/28/twinsights-contact-twins-joe-maddon-source-says/

 

In any case...the Cubs saw something they felt was a good gamble, and they went out and got it.

 

The Twins didn't.

 

That's sort of the point.

 

Check your dates. Yours was written 10/28, four days after he resigned. Mine was written 10/30. Its reasonable to think the Twins might have waited a few days to feel him out and arrange a phone chat.

Sort of the point. The other side is that the Twins reached out to him (and you'd have to think he'd be a frontrunner) and were rebuffed. The Cubs job was there and he took it. The Twins never had a chance at Maddon but it wasn't because they weren't aggressive. That is what we were talking about. The twins aggressiveness vis a vis Mr. Maddon.

 

[d-mac]

 

Are you sure about that?

 

I'm sure they could. If they trade him for some gently used batting practice balls.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It's not like he's any worse than Suzuki. Suzuki is routinely rated as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And he can't throw out runners.

 

He had major concussion issues all year. Not his fault but he wasn't available. Also, the Twins had issues with his play calling and ability to control pitchers. Agreed that Suzuki is not ideal (though he was middle of the pack on pitch framing this year FWIW) but Pinto wasn't ready (and then got concussed).

Suzuki will be a welcome sight as a backup next year. Anything else will mean the Twins failed this offseason (and conversely, I'm okay calling this offseason a success if all they did was go get a decent three year solution at catcher. It'd be nice to work on the bullpen but they have internal options that are promising).
 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm sure they could. If they trade him for some gently used batting practice balls.

 

Wow. That's a lot of hate for a guy a season off of finishing 7th in the Cy Young. I'm not saying that he's going to get back to that level but teams would give up some prospects to find out.

[bluechipper]

 

Yup. Luck, that he's been healthy, sure. But there was no luck to the Cubs identifying that Arrieta having that talent in him and there was no luck on Arrieta's part to achieve that level of success, just lots of hard work. I've always thought Arrieta had a ton of talent. I remember back in 2012 and 13 wishing that we would trade for him. 

Sure, apparently everyone saw his talent back in 2012, but there's no way anyone could predict him being this good, and that's my point. Yes, the Cubs put themselves in a good position by acquiring a higher upside guy, but that difference between being good and being Cy Young is icing on the cake, or in other words, luck.

[d-mac]

 

He had major concussion issues all year. Not his fault but he wasn't available. Also, the Twins had issues with his play calling and ability to control pitchers. Agreed that Suzuki is not ideal (though he was middle of the pack on pitch framing this year FWIW) but Pinto wasn't ready (and then got concussed).

Suzuki will be a welcome sight as a backup next year. Anything else will mean the Twins failed this offseason (and conversely, I'm okay calling this offseason a success if all they did was go get a decent three year solution at catcher. It'd be nice to work on the bullpen but they have internal options that are promising).
 

 

Strawman argument. The concussion is irrelevant because it happened this past spring training. The Twins signed Suzuki before the '14 season to be their starter. He played out of his mind for half a season. The Twins, clearly in rebuild mode never attempted to sell high and trade him at the deadline and then roll with their bat-ready catcher that needed polish defensively. Instead they resigned their no-hit, poor glove (by any sort of modern defensive evaluation for catchers) and kept Pinto in the minors. Low and behold! Their no-hit catcher turns back into a pumpkin.

 

Maybe if they gave Pinto a half a season of being the starting catcher at the major league level they would be a little closer to having this problem solved. Finally, if had been the starter going into the season he may not have been behind the plate in that ST game when he got hit in the head by the Adam Jones back-swing.

[d-mac]

 

Wow. That's a lot of hate for a guy a season off of finishing 7th in the Cy Young. I'm not saying that he's going to get back to that level but teams would give up some prospects to find out.

2014 looks a lot like an outlier. Not saying he can't come back, but teams aren't exactly going to be lining up to trade for a pitcher with a 116 FIP- last year on a long term contract.

[d-mac]

 

Sure, apparently everyone saw his talent back in 2012, but there's no way anyone could predict him being this good, and that's my point. Yes, the Cubs put themselves in a good position by acquiring a higher upside guy, but that difference between being good and being Cy Young is icing on the cake, or in other words, luck.

 

I think the difference between '14 Hughes and '14-'15 Arrieta is talent. Arrieta simply has better stuff. Not luck, but let's agree to disagree.

[Platoon]

Here's yet another passive? agressive? pork chop to toss to the ravishing pack! . In how many orginisations would an arm like Meyers been left to marinate for all these years in the minors? Remember this question is asked in light of said team being 4 yr 90 loss+ losers, not well built contenders. Plus having historically poor pitchers on the big league team. This regardless of whether he was in a lights out mode, or walking the entire population of Rochester NY. Made no difference, there was always an excuse. If you are looking to why the Cubs succeeded on Arrieta, and we have the pitching woes we do, this might, or might not be an example?

[TheLeviathan]

 

And if they did it next year, I'd also be upset. If Pelfrey has an opening day rotation spot, it's a crime. But I think you're overblowing how awful it was to sign Pelfrey (less so Correia, who had no upside). He was a lottery ticket (albeit one with a low ceiling) who got hurt and was effective for awhile and then not. 

 

Hughes would be interesting to flip last year, you certainly could have gotten something for him. The Twins do hold onto guys (though I think seeing him as part of your core going forward is defensible). Willingham springs to mind most. Hughes was towards the end of rebuiling and you can defend keeping him. Willingham cannot (though that was Bill Smith, who did not forsee the Twins sucking for some reason).

 

People consistently keep acting like Arrieta was some given thing that all kinds of teams were drooling over. Go back and read some articles about the trade. He was a throw in guy. Tons of guys like him get traded or dropped every year because they are an "eternal prospect". Occasionally they work out.

 

What you are missing is that they couldn't even land a "take a flyer on me former top prospect" for Correia.  And there was zero chance of that happening.

 

I'll grant that Pelfrey is at least closer to that sort of gamble, but not much.  The Twins had a habit throughout their rebuild of spending money and roster spots on guys with limited upside and of whom they had no interest in trading.

 

If they had followed the Cubs blueprint they would've dealt Suzuki and Willingham and never wasted their time on the likes of Jason Bartlett and Kevin Correia and that ilk.  And the best part?  Better players are better at stabilizing your rotation too!  You just deal them and patch-work for two months to audition other players.  

 

Yes, Arrieta has been a godsend for them they couldn't have predicted.  But they have routinely put themselves in a position to get those sorts of lucky breaks by taking a different, more aggressive stance to rebuilding.  It's the old saying - sometimes it's better to make your own luck than wait for it to happen.

[Hrbowski]

Arrieta is the Cubs' Johan Santana. It isn't like we haven't come up with an ace for nothing, few teams do.

 

 

The Twins were interested in Jake Arrieta before he was acquired by the Cubs in the Scott Feldman deal earlier this month.

 At least we were thinking right.

[ThejacKmp]

 

2014 looks a lot like an outlier. Not saying he can't come back, but teams aren't exactly going to be lining up to trade for a pitcher with a 116 FIP- last year on a long term contract.

 

But other team would take on that contract - and likely give the Twins something.* If the Twins had better pitchers they could unload that contract. So that's not something they can't get rid of without giving things away (see Nolasco, Ricky). 

 

* Note that I am not advocating that the Twins trade Hughes. Let him bounce back next year and then think about dealing him if the young guys are crowding him out. He may not be a Cy Young candidate every again but there's no reason to think he won't be a solid starting pitcher for a few years.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Strawman argument. The concussion is irrelevant because it happened this past spring training. The Twins signed Suzuki before the '14 season to be their starter. He played out of his mind for half a season. The Twins, clearly in rebuild mode never attempted to sell high and trade him at the deadline and then roll with their bat-ready catcher that needed polish defensively. Instead they resigned their no-hit, poor glove (by any sort of modern defensive evaluation for catchers) and kept Pinto in the minors. Low and behold! Their no-hit catcher turns back into a pumpkin.

 

Maybe if they gave Pinto a half a season of being the starting catcher at the major league level they would be a little closer to having this problem solved. Finally, if had been the starter going into the season he may not have been behind the plate in that ST game when he got hit in the head by the Adam Jones back-swing.

 

If the Twins had come into this season with Pinto and Hermann as catchers, you would've been terrified and would have been on here saying the Twins needed a good backup because Pinto was unproven. If he fails, you're stuck with Hermann. Ugh. Especially since there were bound to be a bunch of young Twins pitchers who could use someone who at least belongs in the majors.

 

And that's where you should see above about the free agent catchers post I made. Unless the Twins were going to outbid everyone for Russell Martin, there were no free agent catchers available. You could trade for one but they didn't know what they had in Pinto.

 

Suzuki was a fine signing since he can move into a backup role when the Twins have their next catcher (unlikely to be Pinto or Garver, who didn't take that big step forward he would have needed to to be in the Twins plans for next year. Hopefully they can use some of the excess talent they have in the OF and corner infield positions to solve that.) If Pinto had been ready or played well enough in AAA, he could've moved up and they'd slot Suzuki as backup. Sadly that didn't happen.

 

It's not about just throwing things at a wall. Players have to be put in a position to succeed. Pinto wasn't ready for the majors and Suzuki allowed the Twins to keep him in the minors to learn the trade. It didn't work out but that doesn't mean that the process wasn't reasonable and sound.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Strawman argument. The concussion is irrelevant because it happened this past spring training. The Twins signed Suzuki before the '14 season to be their starter. He played out of his mind for half a season. The Twins, clearly in rebuild mode never attempted to sell high and trade him at the deadline and then roll with their bat-ready catcher that needed polish defensively. Instead they resigned their no-hit, poor glove (by any sort of modern defensive evaluation for catchers) and kept Pinto in the minors. Low and behold! Their no-hit catcher turns back into a pumpkin.

 

Maybe if they gave Pinto a half a season of being the starting catcher at the major league level they would be a little closer to having this problem solved. Finally, if had been the starter going into the season he may not have been behind the plate in that ST game when he got hit in the head by the Adam Jones back-swing.

 

I don't think the concussion is a strawman argument because it speaks to depth. The Twins without Suzuki would have had frightening depth at catcher. You'd be one Pinto injury away from Hermann and Fryer as your catchers. That's a bit scary. Suzuki's contract and temperament didn't mean he had to start - he just gave the Twins options with Pinto.

 

And they did shop Suzuki - no one needed him. There were no team at the deadline last year with pressing needs at catcher. Suzuki would've been a backup on those playoff squads and thus didn't garner anything worth taking.

 

And minor quibble but it's "lo and behold". No biggie, just one of my pet peeves.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think the difference between '14 Hughes and '14-'15 Arrieta is talent. Arrieta simply has better stuff. Not luck, but let's agree to disagree.

 

All of the peripheral stats at the time disagree with you as well. So you will have to agree to disagree with them as well.