The Buxton Expectation Levels

[strumdatjaguar]

He's looked better the last week.  Two hits last night.  In fact, one hit would have been a single for every other player in MLB, but Byron was thinking Double the whole way and ended out at 2B standing up.  He's going to find himself safe at 1B on bunts as well. The Twins should keep running him out there.  This is a special player who will not need much time to become acclimated to the majors. 

[h2oface]

The same folks that touted his greatness are now saying back off on the expectations, and touting excuses now. There is a lot to be said about a player that comes out of the box and performs like he has been touted. Buxton has not done that. Watching him slide.... I think he is just mentally challenged - and watching him pop up bunts? Come on. Right now I have no expectations. I am extremely disappointed that he was not able to really help the team, ala Sano, when they really needed him to come up and wow us, especially with Dozier doing the second half fade, and Mauer and Plouffe not stepping up, and Hunter's rapid decline. Buxton is not such a great story right now, but I will leave the door open.

 

Now Carlos Correa....... that is a different story.

[spinowner]

I equate his performance now to be about what it would have been a year ago had he not lost a year of time due to injuries. For him to even be in the majors at this point is a success story. No-one should be worried at this very, very early stage.

[gopherman23]

Buxton is hitting .300 with only 1 strikeout in his last 5 games (5 strikeouts in his last 11 games). Small sample size I know, but a step in the right direction. His babip is right around .300 as well, which is low for a guy with his speed. His minor league babip sits at .366.

[gopherman23]

From what I've seen from Buxton, he doesn't have a strong arm, and not much power. More like Ben Revere in those traits.But he will have a long and successful career with what he does bring. Faster than all get out, we'll see a ton of bunt hits like the one last night. He'll get to alot of balls no other human could get to. He'll be an exciting player to watch for years. He is what he is and I wouldn't compare him to any other player at this point.

I think you are the first person to accuse Buxton of having a weak arm, which is not true at all.

[HitInAPinch]

Beware the "5-tool player" ............

[Kwak]

 

The same folks that touted his greatness are now saying back off on the expectations, and touting excuses now. There is a lot to be said about a player that comes out of the box and performs like he has been touted. Buxton has not done that. Watching him slide.... I think he is just mentally challenged - and watching him pop up bunts? Come on. Right now I have no expectations. I am extremely disappointed that he was not able to really help the team, ala Sano, when they really needed him to come up and wow us, especially with Dozier doing the second half fade, and Mauer and Plouffe not stepping up, and Hunter's rapid decline. Buxton is not such a great story right now, but I will leave the door open.

 

Now Carlos Correa....... that is a different story.

TD posters tend to have the rosiest of rose-colored glasses about Twins prospects.  That yields uber expectations (as well as considerable smugness) concerning future performance of said player(s) and the team as a whole.  The many comparisons to Trout (as well as Mays and Griffey Jr.) now have been tempered by the reality of this Summer's performance--and some are hurt (WHY?) while others make excuses/rationalizations.  Of course the book on Buxton is only in the first or second chapter and there is plenty of time for the story to improve.  However, even the biggest fans must consider that Buxton's future is not that of a future HOFer but simply that of a good, solid, player. 

 

Your point on Correa is spot on!  There were posts on TD that mocked Houston's selection of Correa instead of Buxton.  I wish I had a $1 for every SS post on TD.  I'm not criticizing the selection of Buxton, but I definitely disagree with those that criticize Houston for selecting Correa. 

[kab21]

 

Beware the "5-tool player" ............

that was true in the draft but Buxton is a 5 tool player that has produced everywhere in the minors except for the lost 2014 season (30 games between injuries).  You get excited about these guys.

 

There is still risk because he is a prospect.  I think I mentioned somewhere a year or so ago when I tried to temper his HOF expectations that his downside is BJ Upton.  5 tool premium athlete that produced throughout the minors and was up for good at 22.  BJ was a real good player (22.4 WAR in 6 seasons) but he never really lived up to the expectations due the swing and miss in his bat.  His power was also inconsistent.  Buxton has done great in the minors but both of these warnings are present.

 

Obviously his ultimate downside is lower but this is let's say a 25% level outcome.  I can live with that but I hope he does better.

[Linus]

He's 21 years old and missed last year (essentially) with injuries.  I think it is promising that he's even up here contributing.

 

People have to get over all the comparisons - each player is different.  It might take him two years to adapt to MLB caliber pitching.  Who cares?  That would put him at the ripe old age of 23 and ready to play CF for the Twins for 12 years.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Carlos Gomez feels like the cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Elite glove, blazing speed, developing power, quick to the Major Leagues. If things break right for Buck, I can see Gomez c. 2013/14 as his baseline (.850 OPS, 40+ SB, gold glove defense) with the possibility to be even more.

 

There is a risk though that he ends up with a line more like Gomez' overall career (.730 OPS, still with great speed on the bases and great defense). That would still be a player of value, but I think most would be disappointed if that's where he ended up.

 

By all accounts, Buxton has a great make up and work ethic. Hopefully that drives him to get the maximum out of his undoubted talent.

[sane]

One of my faves actually.

"one outlier doesn't make a or break a trend"

I agree with you. Matt is an outlier, and he is "one of MY faves" also.

I was one of Matt's coaches in Pony League and High School baseball.

And if any of us says that "we saw his success coming", that guy is lying through his teeth"

It is a fabulous success story for a terrific young man!

[Turd Furgeson]

I think it was in the other Buxton thread but someone brought up his lefty/righty splits and I was actually surprised to see how extreme they are. 

 

vs RHP .638 OPS in 80 PAs

vs LHP .275 OPS in 41 PAs

 

Long term you'd obviously expect him to hit lefties better than RHPs and he's hitting RHPs at least at a much more tolerable level. I think there's some reason to be optimistic. 

[spinowner]

 

Carlos Gomez feels like the cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Elite glove, blazing speed, developing power, quick to the Major Leagues. If things break right for Buck, I can see Gomez c. 2013/14 as his baseline (.850 OPS, 40+ SB, gold glove defense) with the possibility to be even more.

 

There is a risk though that he ends up with a line more like Gomez' overall career (.730 OPS, still with great speed on the bases and great defense). That would still be a player of value, but I think most would be disappointed if that's where he ended up.

 

By all accounts, Buxton has a great make up and work ethic. Hopefully that drives him to get the maximum out of his undoubted talent.

Buxton is level-headed. Gomez, is, well, not level-headed. That's the biggest difference between the two and it's just as important if not more so than the 5 physical tools.

[kab21]

Gomez never really had any success in the minors.  Similar tools and Buxton could end up being that type of player but I wouldn't compare Gomez's initial struggles to what we might expect to get from Buxton.

[DaveW]

Trout is one of the best two all around players in MLB. Setting expectations that high is absurd. Young Torii Hunter is a much more realistic expectation.

[Turd Furgeson]

 

Trout is one of the best two all around players in MLB. Setting expectations that high is absurd. Young Torii Hunter is a much more realistic expectation.

 

I think people get upside and expectations mixed up. Buxton may very well have Trout upside and that's special because there are very few players you could ever say that about, but the likelihood that he reaches that upside is very low. The nice thing is that he could actualize 60% of his upside and be a multi-time all-star. 

[cmb0252]

Is this a real thread or is this one of those "not joke threads" where the creator just hasn't yelled not yet? Are people really changing their minds after 35 games from a 21 year old who was rushed to the bigs after missing almost all of last year? That's not a thing is it? I'm saying this but people were already writing off Nick Gordon after he struggled to start the year.....

 

My expectations haven't changed at all. Buxton has the tools, the glowing scouting reports, a good head on his shoulders, and outside of his 35 games in the majors has the numbers to justify high expectations. All he needs is time. What type of player will he become? No one knows. That's the fun thing of following prospects.

[sane]

Are people really changing their minds after 35 games from a 21 year old who was rushed to the bigs after missing almost all of last year? That's not a thing is it? I'm saying this but people were already writing off Nick Gordon after he struggled to start the year.....

Nah! It's just the Minnesota Doomsday Preppers, fortifying themselves against the "inevitable" failure and disappointment awaiting their sports teams and their hopes.It has something to do with long, cold, desolate winters on the prairies and in the woods of the near-Arctic tundra. Nothing to worry about.........

[sane]

Nah! It's just the Minnesota Doomsday Preppers, fortifying themselves against the "inevitable" failure and disappointment awaiting their sports teams and their hopes.It has something to do with long, cold, desolate winters on the prairies and in the woods of the near-Arctic tundra. Nothing to worry about.........

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giants_in_the_Earth_(novel)