The Future of Tyler Jay

[RJM96]

In 18 games (small sample size, I know) for Fort Myers, Jay has a 4.15 ERA and a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. At this point, what are the chances that he develops into a decent starter?

[Turd Furgeson]

I don't think the numbers tell enough to know. Minor League numbers can be helpful, but I don't think ERA is a good one to use. His K9 is good, but he's walking quite a few and getting hit a lot. Do we know if he's just working on specific pitches because sometimes that's what a pitcher is doing, working on a specific pitch rather than trying to use their full arsenal to get outs.

[gopherman23]

I was never a big fan of drafting an experiment with the 6th overall pick. At the same time, this past draft wasn't exactly dripping with talent either, so I can live with the pick.

[nytwinsfan]

He is doing great. I have exactly 0 worries about him now that I didn't have when he was picked. Of course there is always risk turning a reliever into a starter, but the key stats are:

 

FIP: 1.96

BABIP: .360

 

His ERA, which is mostly based on a high opposing batter BABIP, will come down. And although he walked a few extra batters at the beginning, he has reduced those walks, with only one BB in his last 7 starts. And as Turd Furgeson pointed out, his K/9 rate of 10.9 is quite good.

[Teddy]

I'm excited to see what he does next year in a full-time starter's role.

[Einstein1]

He's settling in nicely.  Over his last 10 appearances his ERA is 1.80, with a WHIP under 1.0 and a K/9 rate over 11.  I'm excited to see how he develops.  

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I would not bet on him making it as a starter. The odds just aren't good. One thing I did notice while scanning his stats over is his terrible splits vs RH-hitters...they owned him. He was great vs LH-hitters though. Having extreme splits is not something that screams starter. Small sample, yes, but their is certainly something real behind that that will need to be addressed if he has any chance.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664079#/splits/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Like the way he finished this last month out though. Rooting that he pans out. Guessing that this might be a bumpy ride for the next few years, if starting is the route we are pushing.

[clutterheart]

I would not bet on him making it as a starter. The odds just aren't good. One thing I did notice while scanning his stats over is his terrible splits vs RH-hitters...they owned him. He was great vs LH-hitters though. Having extreme splits is not something that screams starter. Small sample, yes, but their is certainly something real behind that that will need to be addressed if he has any chance.

 

[u

Out of all the odd takes on twins daily this one takes the cake.

The author admidts its a small sample understands its early but still is concern trolling Jays career.

[Clyde123]

 

I would not bet on him making it as a starter. The odds just aren't good. One thing I did notice while scanning his stats over is his terrible splits vs RH-hitters...they owned him. He was great vs LH-hitters though. Having extreme splits is not something that screams starter. Small sample, yes, but their is certainly something real behind that that will need to be addressed if he has any chance.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664079#/splits/R/pitching/2015/MINORS

 

Like the way he finished this last month out though. Rooting that he pans out. Guessing that this might be a bumpy ride for the next few years, if starting is the route we are pushing.

 

According to scouting reports: "Jay has added a changeup to his repertoire and it shows promise as long as he continues to work on it."  If he can develop this pitch into being solid average or better, he should fare better against right handed batters.  Plus, it is an emphasis in the organization.

[70charger]

Outside of absolutely extreme outliers (think 0.00 ERA or 30.00 ERA), there just isn't anything in this sample size to give me hope or concern at this point. The only thing we have to go on is basically the same thing as what we had to go on before he was drafted.

[big dog]

I think it's fair to have concern about every single newly-drafted pitcher in every organization making it as a starter, or as a major leaguer.  Why pick on him?

[puckstopper1]

As long as Tyler Jay doesn't turn into the next Kenny Jay (think jobber wrestler, circa the AWA)...  In all seriousness I'm pleased with Tyler's initial stint in pro ball.  Let's hope he can keep it up next season.

[Winston Smith]

Out of all the odd takes on twins daily this one takes the cake.

The author admidts its a small sample understands its early but still is concern trolling Jays career.

Kind of arrogant on your part. The guy isn't trashing the kid just expressing an opinion and one that was shared by a lot of MLB scouts prior to the draft. Lighten up!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Out of all the odd takes on twins daily this one takes the cake.
The author admidts its a small sample understands its early but still is concern trolling Jays career.

Odd, no. I am guessing that I have written more more odd takes than this. Yes, I pointed out a concern in small sample. Yet, it was still a noticeable and glaring concern. I wasn't trolling him...I WANT him to succeed. Sorry for looking at his numbers and that I found something obvious for anyone else to find. The majority of the batters he faced were RH too, so it wasn't like using the smaller sample of LH's he faced, which he was great against. 

 

I get how people can get pissed about reading anything that is negative about their team, but I was simply pointing out something that was obvious, and I do believe it is something that will be addressed and hopefully fixed, but I also doubt it was just a random small sample size situation. He likely needs to change something up vs RH-hitters. 

 

I also think that Jay will pan out, I just don't know that it will be as a starter. I also think that Meyer will pas out too, and he is getting late in his prospect years.

[Rosterman]

You either come in and totally dominate in your first run thru the minors, or you listen to the team and the coaches and spend time developing pitches, actually becoming smart with your counts and spotting you throws. That might be what happened to Burdi and Reed this year. Even in the minors, the batters can catch up with you and your "tells" sooner than you think. Pitchers and batters both have to play smart ball.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

According to scouting reports: "Jay has added a changeup to his repertoire and it shows promise as long as he continues to work on it."  If he can develop this pitch into being solid average or better, he should fare better against right handed batters.  Plus, it is an emphasis in the organization.

I kinda assumed that they/he would be focussing on the change to address the issue vs RH's. Maybe thats is the problem at the moment even. Maybe he has been using a very raw and early changeup and it is getting rocked. If this is the case, I would not worry. Probably is the case. Good to here it though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note, please cut down on the personal sniping.