Phil Hughes

[DaveW]

Last 7 starts:

48 IP, ,46 H, 3BB, 1.02 WHIP. 2.44 ERA

 

 

6 wins, 1 loss.

 

Looking. Good!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm still frightened by his lack of missed bats. He hasn't had this problem since 2011.

[drjim]

This started right when there was some concern about a dead arm. Good to see he is savvy enough to battle through that. Also seems Twins have protected him.

[DaveW]

 

I'm still frightened by his lack of missed bats. He hasn't had this problem since 2011.

In 2011 his BB rate was also over 6 times greater.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In 2011 his BB rate was also over 6 times greater.

True, but 2011 was an unmitigated disaster for Hughes.

[DaveW]

 

True, but 2011 was an unmitigated disaster for Hughes.

While yes it was, I don't see the comparison here at all, as mentioned, his BB rate was over 6 times what it is now. Almost 3 walks more per 9. Also Hughes only pitched 74 innings that year and missed over half the season on the DL. When you have the best walk rate in the league, I'm not going to get to worried about the K rate when he is putting up some really good results, when you aren't walking guys that means you are in pitchers counts most of the time, when you are in pitchers counts most of the time that means there will be more soft hit balls. If hughes just finds a way to limit the HR ball, or those numbers continue to regress to the mean, we are looking at a Brad Rake type (but slightly better) who could be solid for us come playoff time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

While yes it was, I don't see the comparison here at all, as mentioned, his BB rate was over 6 times what it is now. Almost 3 walks more per 9. Also Hughes only pitched 74 innings that year and missed over half the season on the DL. When you have the best walk rate in the league, I'm not going to get to worried about the K rate when he is putting up some really good results, when you aren't walking guys that means you are in pitchers counts most of the time, when you are in pitchers counts most of the time that means there will be more soft hit balls. If hughes just finds a way to limit the HR ball, or those numbers continue to regress to the mean, we are looking at a Brad Rake type (but slightly better) who could be solid for us come playoff time.

I don't think he's going to go Nick Blackburn on us, I'm just worried about his newfound inability to miss bats.

 

He's performing now but I'd like to see that K% start creeping back up before the end of the season.

 

It makes you wonder exactly what Neil Allen is doing with the pitching staff. Gibson spent the first six weeks of the season striking out what seemed like one guy per nine innings but later completely reversed course. I hope Hughes can follow suit.

[DaveW]

 

I don't think he's going to go Nick Blackburn on us, I'm just worried about his newfound inability to miss bats.

 

He's performing now but I'd like to see that K% start creeping back up before the end of the season.

 

It makes you wonder exactly what Neil Allen is doing with the pitching staff. Gibson spent the first six weeks of the season striking out what seemed like one guy per nine innings but later completely reversed course. I hope Hughes can follow suit.

 

He has a lot of guys in 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2 counts, more often than not those will always result in outs, with Rosario/Hicks in the OF, I'm not worried about him as long as he keeps it in the park. His K/BB rate is over 6.00 currently, that alone helps a ton. When you have an elite bb/9 rate, you don't need some great K rate to be legit.

[Monkeypaws]

6-1, 2.44 ERA. Who cares how many are strike outs?

 

Gibson explained a while back pretty well how sometimes it's better to get folks out getting them to swing at your pitch.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6-1, 2.44 ERA. Who cares how many are strike outs?

 

Gibson explained a while back pretty well how sometimes it's better to get folks out getting them to swing at your pitch.

Funny how shortly thereafter, Gibson started dominating when he began missing bats (over 8 k per 9 in last 6-8 weeks).

 

Strikeouts aren't just some sexy stat we drool over. They're indicative of a pitcher's ability to throw a pitch the batter simply cannot hit. That doesn't only happen with two strikes. It happens throughout an at-bat.

 

And then there's the part where if a player makes contact, 30% of the time it turns into a hit. That doesn't happen with a strikeout.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think he's going to go Nick Blackburn on us, I'm just worried about his newfound inability to miss bats.

 

 

yeah, it's hard to look at the fact he has allowed more hits than anyone in the league. makes one wonder how long it will be before it hurts. it certainly doesn't click with the idea of getting guys out other ways besides Ks is equally good.  Still leads the league in hits allowed means getting guys out a lower rate than most.

[drjim]

yeah, it's hard to look at the fact he has allowed more hits than anyone in the league. makes one wonder how long it will be before it hurts. it certainly doesn't click with the idea of getting guys out other ways besides Ks. Still leads the league in hits allowed. Getting guys out a lower rate than most.

He's also 7th in innings and has the lowest bb rate, so not devastating. Would help if he cut the hrs a little.

[jimmer]

 

He's also 7th in innings and has the lowest bb rate, so not devastating. Would help if he cut the hrs a little.

he's not walking people.  Batters are too busy getting hits off him to walk.  That was meant as a joke, he has a low BABIP.  I wonder how sustainable that is when he doesn't miss bats?

[drjim]

he's not walking people. Batters are too busy getting hits off him to walk. That was meant as a joke, he has a low BABIP. I wonder how sustainable that is when he doesn't miss bats?

Don't fly ball guys generally have lower babips?

[jimmer]

His BAA puts him at 41 out of 49 qualifying AL starting pitchers.  One wonder how long he can continue to keep up the current ERA streak mentioned by the OP.

 

Every one of the pitchers that has a worse BAA has an ERA of 4.43 or higher, except one.  Pelfrey.  So the same question applies to him.

[ashbury]

His BAA puts him at 41 out of 49 qualifying AL starting pitchers.  One wonder how long he can continue to keep up the current ERA streak mentioned by the OP.

Where does he rank in OBP-against?

[jimmer]

Ash, he ranks 18th in OBP against.  Guess who ranks last with a whopping .360 OBP against?

[ashbury]

Ash, he ranks 18th in OBP against.  Guess who ranks last with a whopping .360 OBP against?

I looked it up in order to check my guess, and learned that Nolasco is even "ahead" of Big Pelf at .369 but lacks the innings to qualify.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Don't fly ball guys generally have lower babips?

Slightly, yes, But I don't believe it's usually enough to be noticeable. Maybe a few points advantage.

[DaveW]

Hitters are always going to hit worse, make worse contact when it's a 0-2,1-2 or 2-2 pitchers count.

[stringer bell]

Hughes' former team almost called him lucky after he blanked them for seven innings last night. Headley and Girardi both made remarks that they hit the ball better than the final results. I thought they got some good swings in, but Hughes kept them just enough off-balance that they couldn't dent the scoreboard.

 

Much like two of the games on the just completed road trip, it was "one of those days" where nothing is going right, this time for the Yankees.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hitters are always going to hit worse, make worse contact when it's a 0-2,1-2 or 2-2 pitchers count.

Absolutely, and that's why Hughes is still an effective pitcher. I only worry how effective he can be in the long term. It's hard to see him repeating his great 2014 without that K% returning at some point.

[Willihammer]

Does anyone know how to look up strike% by pitch type? Hughes curveball was a great get me over pitch last year, but this year it seems like his command of it has faded.

[jimmer]

Are you sure you mean his curveball and not his cutter?  He didn't use his curveball much last year (from over 200 in 2013 to 70 last year) and had a BAA of.400.  Seems he's abandoned the curveball .

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitch-type-abbreviations-classifications/

 

[Willihammer]

 

Are you sure you mean his curveball and not his cutter?  He didn't use his curveball much last year (from over 200 in 2013 to 70 last year) and had a BAA of.400.  Seems he's abandoned the curveball .

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitch-type-abbreviations-classifications/

KC knucklecurve. That link answers my question - no change in Str%

 

Interestingly the FA value has gone from a healthy positive to a healthy negative though. Perhaps losing a tick is what's really costing him this season.

[jimmer]

 

KC knucklecurve. That link answers my question - no change in Str%

 

Interestingly the FA value has gone from a healthy positive to a healthy negative though. Perhaps losing a tick is what's really costing him this season.

I assumed you meant cutter because he only used it 7 times in 2013 and then 509 times last year (the 2nd most of any pitch).  It was also his most effective pitch. I'm glad the info/links helped though.

 

Seems he's throwing his two seamer more this year and it's hurting him.

[Willihammer]

 

I assumed you meant cutter because he only used it 7 times in 2013 and then 509 times last year (the 2nd most of any pitch).  It was also his most effective pitch. I'm glad the info/links helped though.

 

Seems he's throwing his two seamer more this year and it's hurting him.

From what I'm looking at, the 4-seem was his best pitch last year. This year its his worst pitch. 

 

I wonder about the accuracy of pitchf/x's fastball classifications, but, it says he's added a 2-seemer this year? The results on that are quite a bit better than his 4-seem.

 

The cutter has straightened out as well.

[jimmer]

 

From what I'm looking at, the 4-seem was his best pitch last year. This year its his worst pitch. 

 

I wonder about the accuracy of pitchf/x's fastball classifications, but, it says he's added a 2-seemer this year? The results on that are quite a bit better than his 4-seem.

 

The cutter has straightened out as well.

He didn't add a two seamer (FT)this year, he threw it 159 times last year and it was very ineffective.  Now he's throwing it more, still not effective, though his regular fastball is worse this year maybe because he's lost almost 2 MPH on it.

 

His cutter this year has a BAA of .202. Even better than last year.

[Willihammer]

 

He didn't add a two seamer (FT)this year, he threw it 159 times last year and it was very ineffective.  Now he's throwing it more, still not effective, though his regular fastball is worse this year maybe because he's lost almost 2 MPH on it.

 

His cutter this year has a BAA of .202. Even better than last year.

Right, gotcha. He had the FT last year but FA was his bread and butter. This year that pitch is killing him.

 

I'd be curious to see 2-strike, LHB splits on the FC. Seems like he's lost a lot of K's back dooring it, due to less x-movement perhaps. Seems like he's still able to jam LHBs with it though.

[jimmer]

 

Right, gotcha. He had the FT last year but FA was his bread and butter. This year that pitch is killing him.

 

I'd be curious to see 2-strike, LHB splits on the FC. Seems like he's lost a lot of K's back dooring it, due to less x-movement perhaps. Seems like he's still able to jam LHBs with it though.

yeah, he needs to greatly reduce his two seamer usage and use the cutter more too.  His cutter is his most effective pitch both last year and this year.