Tyler Jay

[Dman]

I guess I was one of the few who was happy with the pick.  I liked that they got a left handed pitcher as it is a need.  It is hard to find lefties with his velocity and control.  Just look at all the hard throwers we have but they do not have control and find it hard to move up.  He also was graded high on three of his pitches with future 55 to 60 grades on them.  

 

The pick might be risky as a starter but his floor should be shut down closer which is better than nothing.  The only player that might make me think twice about the Twins decision would be Fullmer.  Just have to wait and see at this point.  

 

These decisions are based on potential not a finished product.  Give him at least a couple of years before writing him off as a bad decision.  Once he figures things out I am sure the results will be better.

[Mike Sixel]

His floor is not major league player. I bet he makes it, but his floor is way below Glen Perkins.

[Dman]

 

His floor is not major league player. I bet he makes it, but his floor is way below Glen Perkins.

Wouldn't that be everyone's floor, then?

[Steve Lein]

 

but that Jay was evaluated as a shutdown, late-inning relief pitcher.  If that skill-set is worth a 6th OA pick, then Jay should be developed as that player (RP).  My contention is/was that the Twins really wanted a LH, dominant, SP--but unfortunately that player didn't exist.  Hence, the Twins are taking a highly rated prospect and trying to transform him into a different player.  I consider that a poor decision--so poor that Jay is developed into a SP, pushed through the system, and becomes a failure as a SP.  IMO, Jay should be developed just as he was as an amateur (if college atheletes can be considered as amateurs!)--a RP. 

 

Don't assume that's what the case was with Jay. He wasn't a typical reliever.

 

Sure, he was pretty much the closer, but I'd describe him more as a firestopper.

 

He pitched over 3 innings several times. How many college closers do that? Burdi didn't do that. Peterson didn't do that. Jones didn't do that. Reed didn't do that...

 

Jay also happened to play on one of the best teams in the country, who's strength was their starting pitching. It just so happens Jay was younger than all the other starters.

 

His coaches have basically come out and said Jay wasn't starting because the other guys held seniority over him, despite the fact he may have been the best of the bunch.

 

Good problem to have at Illinois: "All our guys deserve to start...so lets go with the experience pecking order."

[Badsmerf]

I'm perfectly fine with both the pick and his performance this season. I don't think its that big of a deal to convert him to a starter if his delivery, body style, and stuff are adequate. Some guys have the stuff but not the body (Pedro Martinez comes to mind of someone that is a clear outlier). 

 

Guys hyperventilating about less than 10 ip of his first experience in pro ball is pretty funny. He's going to be a starter, so he should be starting or at least stretching out. I don't like that he is still in a relief role right now. That makes his adjustment time to starting take even longer, which is why I'm against it. Struggling right now is not a big deal, he's adjusting.... he should just be adjusting into a starting role.

 

[Guest]

 

The reason teams convert college relief pitchers to starters in the low minors is to provide more opportunities to work on their pitches. A relief pitcher typically works one or two innings and throws less than 30 pitches per appearance. He may only need to throw fastballs and changeups.

 

A starter will typically work five or six innings and will be able to use & work on multiple pitches during an appearance. This is the opportunity to add the third and fourth pitches to a pitcher's repetoir.

This.

 

And I think this is a point so many people who criticize the practice of having college relievers get Class A starting work totally miss or at least disregard.

 

Yes, at their age, college pitchers need a somewhat faster promotion rate than HS and young international pitchers do. But they still need professional level pitching experience and that means getting innings.

 

You learn to pitch to professional hitters by doing it and regardless of whether you think Pitcher A or Pitcher B will be a starter or bullpen arm at the big league level, the organization wants to see him against as many professional hitters, in as many different situations, as possible, given that they don't have the same luxury of time that they do with a 19 year old.

 

So you let them start. Maybe for a year, maybe 2, maybe only half a year. It varies.

 

If you end up getting 1-2 out of 10 of these guys who actually fourish as a starter, too, that's a bonus.

 

Now, Jay is a unique case in that the Twins and virtually every other team considering him, genuinely want and expect him to be a starter, long term. They wouldn't use a pick that high on a projected RP. They hoped maybe he'd dominate at high-A and could be considered as a possible MLB pen arm during Aug-Sept (Oct?) in Minnesota. That's not looking likely, but it was worth a shot.

 

And next year, he'll get the innings he needs as a starter.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

So what?  I could easily counter and say.

 

1. Brian Duensing (Left handed reliever, yawn)

2. His stuff looks impressive in College because the hitters aren't as good.

3. Brian Duensing (Left handed reliever, yawn)

4. Velocity?  Everyone knows that collegiate scouts and writers overhype and over clock pitchers because they would have nothing to talk and make money.

5. Brian Duensing (Left handed reliever, yawn)

 

I think when it was the Twins turn to draft #6 they weren't left with any of the choices they wanted and were kinda scratching their heads thinking what to do what to do. 

 

Well, I guess you picked the only thing that Jay and Duensing had in common; they're left-handed. Here's a mid-level update on his rise through the minors (http://www.scout.com/mlb/twins/story/560531-scouting-report-brian-duensing). Don't get me wrong, I like Brian, seems like a nice guy and I wish him well, but Tyler Jay he is not (as a prospect).

 

I don't know if I agree that the Twins were left head scratching...that's a popular meme, but generally drafts are planned and planned, and then planned again to outlay the options. Maybe he wasn't their first pick, but they heavily scouted him.

 

So, you weren't impressed with his velocity, his track history in college, stuff, or the fact that he throws the ball from closer to first base. I can understand that. Who did you want? 

[spinowner]

 

I don't understand why he isn't starting right now. What is the point in having him pitch as a RP.... when the plan is for him to start. If the reasoning is innings pitched this season, shut him down. I guess I just don't see a reason to "ease" a guy in when he has a full career in college. 

One reason is that Fort Myers has 6 starters on their roster already. At least they did as of a few weeks ago. I don't know if there have been any roster moves recently.

[Badsmerf]

There are 3 levels below that he could start and stretch out. That saying by the way, is real. Relief pitching and starting are very different on a body. The finding room argument for a 6th overall draft choice is one I would expect to hear from the twins though. So nice play there.

[drjim]

I just assumed they put Jay there to leave open the possibility of pitching out of the pen in the bigs this year.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I just assumed they put Jay there to leave open the possibility of pitching out of the pen in the bigs this year.

 

Which was never a real possibility (or at least a very good possibility). 

[tobi0040]

 

To say Jay was just a shut down late inning reliever is a little misleading.

 

He relieved in a variety of roles, often going multiple innings, and made a handful of starts, including the last game of the year (the most important for the team).

 

This draft had 5 clear guys and the Twins drafted 6th, that is probably the biggest issue.

 

I completely agree.

 

The only pitcher drafted ahead of him was Tate, who pitched 143 innings in college.  Jay pitched 127.  This was a weak draft and many teams felt that Jay's four pitch mix, velocity, body type, and mechanics will allow him to start.  They took the biggest upside available there.

 

Frankly, I find this approach refreshing since our MO has been avoiding risks in the draft and taking low ceiling guys.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I completely agree.

 

The only pitcher drafted ahead of him was Tate, who pitched 143 innings in college.  Jay pitched 127.  This was a weak draft and many teams felt that Jay's four pitch mix, velocity, body type, and mechanics will allow him to start.  They took the biggest upside available there.

 

Frankly, I find this approach refreshing since our MO has been avoiding risks in the draft and taking low ceiling guys.

 

What? They've been taking HS players over college players, and RP to try to turn them into starters. I have no idea why you'd type that last sentence. None.

[tobi0040]

 

What? They've been taking HS players over college players, and RP to try to turn them into starters. I have no idea why you'd type that last sentence. None.

 

A couple of people say hi.

 

Ben Revere, Ryan Eades, Nick Gordon, and Alex Wimmers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

A couple of people say hi.

 

Ben Revere, Ryan Eades, Nick Gordon, and Alex Wimmers.

 

Nick Gordon, HSer...

 

Wimmers and Revere were taken years ago, years ago.

 

Check the last 4 drafts......

[tobi0040]

 

Nick Gordon, HSer...

 

Wimmers and Revere were taken years ago, years ago.

 

Check the last 4 drafts......

 

Are all high school players high upside?  By most accounts, Gordon was as safe as they come with very little chance of being a star.  At #5 overall, that is a poor pick in my eyes.

 

Eades was taken #43 overall in 2013. Very low upside.

 

My point was Jay was more in the Kohl Stewart, Gonsalves type category than the Gordon, Revere, Wimmers, Eades category and I am all for it.

 

This entire thread is about three years premature.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Gordon has very little chance of being a star? That's not what I've read, but we are off the Jay topic now....

[nicksaviking]

Maybe it is just me, but I always thought there was a pretty clear delination in draft stratagy between 2011 and 2012.  Before, it was all about obnoxiously safe picks.  It seems since 2012 when they picked Buxton, who to be fair was close to a no-brainer, and Berrios who wasn't, the Twins have gone with the boom or bust types.  Even the much debated drafting college reliever stratagy seems to be different than the past considering how many of them the team is trying to turn into starters.

 

I do tend to agree that Jay was probably a safe pick, but probably because the draft was so bad.  I'm always in the camp of going for upside, screw the safe picks, but my pick would have been safe-ish college arm Carson Fulmer.  If not Fulmer, my 2nd choice would have been to intentionally tank the pick and get #7 in 2016.

[bird]

 

Picking a RP.....not my top idea. How is Burdi working out?

 

 

How is Duffey working out?

[bird]

 

Clearly another wasted first round pick by Terry Ryan.

 

 

Yeah. And they need a pitching coach.

[bird]

 

TWINS--they draft a promising player, but unfortunately not the guy they would have preferred--so, what the.. "let's make him into the guy [we] always wanted?"  The track record of this strategy is....

 

Huh?!?

[jokin]

 

Yeah. And they need a pitching coach.

 

They have a very good pitching coach.  And many of us wholeheartedly congratulated Terry Ryan at the time of hire for landing Neal Allen, and giving him the major league opportunity- and in the process, acknowledging and correcting a major area of franchise underperformance that had clearly gone stale.

 

 I'm  not sure why you would choose to be snide in this instance.

[tobi0040]

 

Gordon has very little chance of being a star? That's not what I've read, but we are off the Jay topic now....

 

We must have been reading different bio's.  The comparison I saw was Alexei Ramirez. 

 

Seems like when a SS has star power, he is not there at #5.

 

2012 would be an example (Correa).  Or the last draft when they went 1-3.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What evidence is there that the Twins ever considered promoting Jay to MLB this season and using him in relief. Maybe I missed it.

 

On that same note, when will the Twins promote Burdi to MLB? He was another guy considered MLB-ready when drafted last year. The Twins have an urgent need and Burdi has now strung together some pretty good appearances.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe it is just me, but I always thought there was a pretty clear delination in draft stratagy between 2011 and 2012.  Before, it was all about obnoxiously safe picks.  It seems since 2012 when they picked Buxton, who to be fair was close to a no-brainer, and Berrios who wasn't, the Twins have gone with the boom or bust types.

Nick Gordon was probably about as "safe" as a high school draftee can be.

[jokin]

 

How is Duffey working out?

 

Since you asked.... I wish I was wrong, but... He's working out to be a future bullpen pitcher, but with velocity of only around 90-91 compared to Burdi and others,Duffey  only throws two quality pitches, K% has dropped to 18% in AAA, plus there's no room for him in the rotation, plus he has others soon passing him by.

[howieramone2]

 

They have a very good pitching coach.  And many of us wholeheartedly congratulated Terry Ryan at the time of hire for landing Neal Allen, and giving him the major league opportunity- and in the process, acknowledging and correcting a major area of franchise underperformance that had clearly gone stale.

 

 I'm  not sure why you would choose to be snide in this instance.

Philosophical discord?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On that same note, when will the Twins promote Burdi to MLB? He was another guy considered MLB-ready when drafted last year. The Twins have an urgent need and Burdi has now strung together some pretty good appearances.

Huh?  Burdi indeed had a few good appearances lately, but back in high-A.  I think the aggressive timeline for him is off the table now...

[jokin]

 

What evidence is there that the Twins ever considered promoting Jay to MLB this season and using him in relief. Maybe I missed it.

On that same note, when will the Twins promote Burdi to MLB? He was another guy considered MLB-ready when drafted last year. The Twins have an urgent need and Burdi has now strung together some pretty good appearances.

 

Actually he's been demoted back to HIgh A.  While he struck out 12 in his first 8 innings, he had a major setback yesterday-

 

2 IP 2 ER 1 HR 1 WP 1 Balk 1 K

 

And took the loss.  He's got a ways to go before he gets out of the High A wilderness and just back to AA, let alone MLB.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How is Duffey working out?

 

Hard to say so far for sure, but if you look at all of MLB, it just doesn't happen all that often. You can make it work once or twice, maybe, but are those the odds to play?