Trade Candidate Ian Desmond

[DaveW]

Desmond has fallen out of favor in Washington and they seem to have some better internal options for the rest of this year.

He has had a pretty rough season this year at the plate and defensively, but the 3 years prior he averaged 23 HR a year and pretty solid production overall.

 

He makes 11 milion this year, so the Twins would likely be on the hook for 4-5.5 million of it which is affordable. Odds are it won't cost much to acquire him and I for one don't think Escobar, Santana, or Nunez are every day fits at this point, and the Twins DO need another solid bat.

 

What say you Twinsdaily?

[d-mac]

If he's cheap. He's been awful this year though. And we need a good defensive SS with the lack of K's from our pitching staff. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

I like Nunez. Small sample size be damned! When it comes to position players, to me it just seems like Twins need a catcher first and foremost.

[Willihammer]

Why does he stink this year? Injury? What happened?

[High heat]

I like the idea. Nunez isn't going to last at SS. If you could pick him up for a few low level prospects or 1 mid level I would do it.

[Pardon My Dinger]

You know who else isn't going to last at SS? Ian Desmond.

[Willihammer]

Nunez has been stinging the ball lately but he's clearly overmatched at SS. I think the eye test and stats are in agreement on that one.

[DaveW]

 

You know who else isn't going to last at SS? Ian Desmond.

I dunno, he may just need a change of scenery, the 3 years prior he was above average defensively as a SS.

[Steve Lein]

Yuck...

[DaveW]

 

 

Nunez has been stinging the ball lately but he's clearly overmatched at SS. I think the eye test and stats are in agreement on that one.

Yeah, Nunez is actually pretty terrible at every defensive position. I don't mind keeping him around as a bench guy as long as he continues to hit, but he shouldn't be the everyday SS and shouldn't be counted on to be an every day player moving forward.

[nicksaviking]

He's a free agent after this year. No matter how much he stinks this year, the Nats will still give him a QO knowing he'll turn it down since he almost certainly can still get a multi year deal based on his track record.

 

So the Twins at the very least would have to give up something equal in value to a QO.

[DaveW]

 

He's a free agent after this year. No matter how much he stinks this year, the Nats will still give him a QO knowing he'll turn it down since he almost certainly can still get a multi year deal based on his track record.

So the Twins at the very least would have to give up something equal in value to a QO.

A QO this year is like 16 million, yeah he can prob get a multi year deal on the open market, but if if like you said he continues to "stink" it won't be anywhere near a AAV of 16 million, probably not even 12 million. Which means there is a pretty solid chance he would accept said offer.

NTM they could use that saved money from him this year to add additional help where they need it (bullpen)

[Willihammer]

IMO the best deals in trade are for the not-yet established guys early on their arb clock or the half year rentals like this, even if they are in line for a QO. Peavy was had for pretty cheap last year for example. The really expensive players seem to be in the 1.5 year range, eg. Cespedes, Price.

[mickeymental]

better bet: get florimon back from pirates org.

[nicksaviking]

A QO this year is like 16 million, yeah he can prob get a multi year deal on the open market, but if if like you said he continues to "stink" it won't be anywhere near a AAV of 16 million, probably not even 12 million. Which means there is a pretty solid chance he would accept said offer.

 

NTM they could use that saved money from him this year to add additional help where they need it (bullpen)

No one has ever accepted a QO before. Seems to me most guys tend to prefer a 3/30 kind of deal over the one year QO. Maybe he's different.

[DaveW]

 

No one has ever accepted a QO before.

Only 12 players got them last year, I'm not so sure Desmond would get one or 2/30 anyways if he keeps "this" up.

[jimbo92107]

I'm not a big Eduardo Nunez fan, but I have not seen him "stinking" or "overmatched" at SS so far. Other than one somewhat clumsy early play to his right, Nunez has looked pretty slick to me. Good movement, very strong arm. He did make a bad throw recently, but Vargas made a good dig. Otherwise Nunez gives me no feeling of panic at short, and his bat has been good. If he starts to falter, put Escobar back in there. No rush to get Danny Santana back. Let the kid get his head together in Rochester. Not much of a fire at short.

[HitInAPinch]

Ish.  Desmond harvested a bumper crop of K's last year and his overall offensive stats seem to be in a steady decline since his best year, 2012.  To me, a trade would have to be really cheap. 

 

And then there's the other thing:  Twins need a batter or 2 to step up.  Only Twin hitting .300+ right now is

Eduardo Nunez.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I'm not a big Eduardo Nunez fan, but I have not seen him "stinking" or "overmatched" at SS so far. Other than one somewhat clumsy early play to his right, Nunez has looked pretty slick to me. Good movement, very strong arm. He did make a bad throw recently, but Vargas made a good dig. Otherwise Nunez gives me no feeling of panic at short, and his bat has been good. If he starts to falter, put Escobar back in there. No rush to get Danny Santana back. Let the kid get his head together in Rochester. Not much of a fire at short.

I agree with you on Nunez's defense.  I lot of it is based in from the past where he made some Major League bonehead plays.  Right now, Twins need a hitter more that a defensive whiz.

[James]

 

No one has ever accepted a QO before. 

This is true, but some team is going to make a mistake and offer one to a guy that takes it eventually.  We've already seen teams miss out on draft picks because guys rejected the offer and didn't sign until after the draft.  I don't know if Desmond is that guy or not, but it is a gamble.

 

Some players, a team knows that they won't accept it.  For example, there was no way Sandoval was going to take the QO last year.  There are some more fringey players that may try it out though.  I'm actually surprised the Cuddy didn't take his last year.  

 

Desmond is young enough that I that he could get more years on the contract.  Then again, he may want to take a guaranteed higher pay day for a year so he can rebuild some value before hitting free agency.

 

Either way, I'm not really sure I'm on board with trying to trade for Desmond.  I think I'd rather try out Polanco, or call up Santana again to play SS full time.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A QO this year is like 16 million, yeah he can prob get a multi year deal on the open market, but if if like you said he continues to "stink" it won't be anywhere near a AAV of 16 million, probably not even 12 million. Which means there is a pretty solid chance he would accept said offer.

Has anyone ever accepted a qualifying offer?  Even Cuddyer turned it down and immediately turned around and signed for only 2/21.

[DaveW]

Since 2012 Nunez ranks dead last defensively in SS for all players with a minimum of 100 innings played at the SS position. 118 out of 118.

Playing Nunez at short stop is literally playing with a ticking time bomb that will go over sooner rather than later.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Eventually some player will be bad enough that they will accept the QO, but I don't think Desmond this year is that guy.  The Nationals reportedly offered him 7/107 last winter, so even though he is having a rough season, he isn't some Mike Pelfrey type who's never seen a $16 mil contract.

 

And even if Desmond does accept a QO, so what?  You get a shortstop for one year, and if he rebounds you can offer him the QO again.

 

In any case, the Nationals won't accept anything less than the equivalent of a QO comp pick in return for Desmond right now, and probably more.  Not only would it a QO be a fair value for a team as demonstrated above, but the Nationals can easily afford a one year, $16 million bet on a player.  (Actually any team could afford that.)

[Vanimal46]

Yeah I would take a chance on Desmond. He can bring a power hitting element that our lineup severely lacks (looking at you, Joe)

[DaveW]

The Nationals are in win now mode though and they have what they feel are better options internally up the middle like Rendon, Espinosa etc

[Ncgo4]

It's GOTTA happen cuz it's in the Twins blood! Let's see:

 

Option 1. A 30 year old $10 million per year player from another team who fails to achieve even his prior mediocre averages.

 

Option 2. Call up a 23 year old (or so) Twins prospect who is making a fraction of $10 million and has plenty of upside.

 

Easy...spend the money cause God knows you can't trust those damned young 'uns!

[tobi0040]

 

Eventually some player will be bad enough that they will accept the QO, but I don't think Desmond this year is that guy.  The Nationals reportedly offered him 7/107 last winter, so even though he is having a rough season, he isn't some Mike Pelfrey type who's never seen a $16 mil contract.

 

And even if Desmond does accept a QO, so what?  You get a shortstop for one year, and if he rebounds you can offer him the QO again.

 

In any case, the Nationals won't accept anything less than the equivalent of a QO comp pick in return for Desmond right now, and probably more.  Not only would it a QO be a fair value for a team as demonstrated above, but the Nationals can easily afford a one year, $16 million bet on a player.  (Actually any team could afford that.)

 

I agree, virtually no chance he could not get a multi-year deal in a market where SS get paid like crazy.  See A. Escobar, Castro, etc. I think it would take more than we would want to give up for him because they need value over and above the comp pick they will get.

 

Aside from the 60-70 games this year he has a career .736 OPS.  Defensively he is nothing to write home about (1.2 career dWAR), but the bat has value.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

It's GOTTA happen cuz it's in the Twins blood! Let's see:

Option 1. A 30 year old $10 million per year player from another team who fails to achieve even his prior mediocre averages.

Option 2. Call up a 23 year old (or so) Twins prospect who is making a fraction of $10 million and has plenty of upside.

Easy...spend the money cause God knows you can't trust those damned young 'uns!

Desmond isn't 30 years old. His prior numbers as a SS put him in the top 5 each of the last 3 years. Top 5 production is mediocre? ok...

 

Who is this option the Twins can call up who has plenty of upside? Santana, Polanco, Escobar are look like Util guys at this point.

[DaveW]

 

 

I agree, virtually no chance he could not get a multi-year deal in a market where SS get paid like crazy.  See A. Escobar, Castro, etc. I think it would take more than we would want to give up for him because they need value over and above the comp pick they will get.

 

Aside from the 60-70 games this year he has a career .736 OPS.  Defensively he is nothing to write home about (1.2 career dWAR), but the bat has value.

His UZR is positive over the prior three years, that places him as above average for a SS which is pretty good and certainly much better than what the Twins currently have defensively.

[DaveW]

From 2012 to today, Desmond has the 2nd highest WAR amongst SS. 4th highest OPS, 1st most HR's.

 

Hardly mediocre.