Nick Blackburn and Sunk Costs

[CDog]

Spring Training stats?

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#playerType=ALL&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=2012&season_type=ANY&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=142&active_sw=&game_type='S'&position=&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=0&last_x_days=&ts=1340909907724&elem=[object+Object]&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching

 

Blackburn's ST numbers were very good. I don't put stock into ST numbers for multiple reasons. Small sample size, questionable competition, players "working on things" rather than playing their game, pitchers "ahead of the hitters", etc, etc, etc. Look at some of the other Twins pitchers that had very good STs - not exactly a cross-section of the best pitchers in the organization.

Right. Like you said, these are small samples. AND they don't count "non-official" appearances. AND they don't include secondary stats that are likely more useful about swings and misses and strikes and all that. Which is why I said (and I think you're agreeing) that there aren't stats there to accurately explain what was going on.

[CDog]

Spring Training numbers? Come on....

Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning.

[snepp]

Spring Training numbers? Come on....

Quoted for reinforcement.

[Boom Boom]

I don't think Bill James or any of his sabermetric acolytes are burning the midnight oil to crunch spring training data.

 

The guys who should know best what was working for Blackburn then - and what isn't working for him now - are Gardenhire and Anderson. If it was something that could be easily fixed, like a move to the other side of the rubber or a minor mechanical flaw, they'd have fixed it by now.

 

The easiest answer is that Blackburn's spring training was a mirage, and not in line with his career statistics.

[diehardtwinsfan]

How long has he been in the leauge now? If it's less than 5 years, they can designate him for assigment and he has to pass through waivers. I highly doubt someone is going to take him, so he clears waivers and he goes to Rochester where he can figure out what he's been doing wrong. Yes, it's expensive to have him down there, but there sadly are better options up here.

[Nick Nelson]

Like John and Nick stated, I have also thought Blackburn had more to offer than many. And like them I'm befuddled by the lack of results. As for the actual direction of the original post, the only reason I can see continuing to start him now because of being under contract next year is if there is some merit to the general argument that the best way for him to get right is by starting big league games. Given they are very unlikely to get to contention this year, do you use this year as work to get him better for next? I don't know if there IS any merit to that, but that's the only reason I can think of to keep going in the same lane.

I have generally felt the Twins should stick with him in the rotation for this reason, but the lack of ANY improvement is a serious red flag. I mean, we're halfway through the season now; at some point a guy needs to earn his keep, and Blackburn hasn't turned in a quality start in two months. It's just not fair to the fans (or the admittedly uninspiring replacement options) to keep trotting the guy out when he's this awful. I wouldn't necessarily DFA him, but at the very least the Twins need to bump him to the bullpen for a while so he can clear his head and work things out -- seemed to help Liriano.

 

Along the lines of results and what it might take and how far away he is from fixing anything, wasn't it just three months ago that he was lights out in spring training? So this is a question...having virtually no access to see spring training performances and the lack of statistics to properly measure them, is there anyone with the expertise here that actually WAS able to watch then to know what was different? Was it just luck or small-sample variation? Or was his sinker actually sinking and his breaking ball actually breaking and all of that? If he WAS throwing a good, heavy sinker just that recently, is that hope enough to think he could do it again relatively soon?

This is the weird thing. I didn't see Blackburn in spring training, but I know that Phil Mackey was constantly talking him up (to a ridiculous degree -- I think at one point he had like 30 tweets about Blackburn in one week). I tend to think Mackey's smart enough not to be fooled by superficial ST performances, but he was definitely buying into Blackie and with good reason: He was inducing whiffs on a quarter of the swings taken against him, which – regardless of the low stakes competition – was an encouraging sign. As soon as the games started mattering, Blackburn turned to a pumpkin, and unlike his various past slumps he seems incapable of emerging from this one.

[CDog]

Quoted for reinforcement.

And to repeat for your reinforcement...

 

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

[CDog]

I don't think Bill James or any of his sabermetric acolytes are burning the midnight oil to crunch spring training data.

 

The guys who should know best what was working for Blackburn then - and what isn't working for him now - are Gardenhire and Anderson. If it was something that could be easily fixed, like a move to the other side of the rubber or a minor mechanical flaw, they'd have fixed it by now.

 

The easiest answer is that Blackburn's spring training was a mirage, and not in line with his career statistics.

Which is why I was curious if anyone was both there to see AND had the expertise to notice what (if anything) was different.

[shs_59]

This is a joke, right?

 

A capable 5th starter on a good baseball team? He has an ERA over 7.50. He wouldnt even crack the top 10 best starters in the Rangers org. You realize how bad he is getting crushed right? 400ft+ home runs are still going to leave Petco.

 

You're overreacting!

 

woa dude stop, just please stop

 

Anybody Even Tim Lincecum, can put up 2 1/2 months of ERA @ 7.50 +

 

Its all about the context and the sample size.

 

Blackburns career ERA (useless statistic that it is) is still less than 5.00 ...........

 

Please stop it was not a Joke and just about ANY YEAR besides THIS Year and last, YES the Texas Rangers, would love to have had him in their 5th spot on opening day.

 

I will say 5th starters are easily replacable they're replacement Level players &Orgs.Like ours and the Rangers can pump them out 2-3 times a season. But I think Blacky is also hurt or not at 100% health. He's taking the ball because we ALL KNOW there really is nobody to come up and take his spot for him.

[cr9617]

And to repeat for your reinforcement...

 

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

Read through your entire post(again).

 

Spring training stats? Come on.....

[CDog]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Blackie was willing to accept being sent down if he had options left (I think he's been around long enough he would have to agree to it, right? Does he have options, though?). I feel like he went down rather willingly (or maybe it was to the bullpen?) during a bad spell last year or the year before. And given his reaction to the most recent outing, he sure seems like he's ready to do something--anything--to get things figured out. Is that an option without giving him the ol' DFA?

 

On another note, it's a bit of a slow day at work, so I took a look through some other rosters and salaraies according to USA Today's lists. On teams that spend at least as much as the Twins, Blackburn's salary would put him as the 5th or 6th highest paid starter on six of them, and the 4th highest on three others (including being 4th highest on Twins). For the third of the league directly behind the Twins in payroll, he would be 3rd highest paid on seven of them. And for the penny-pinchers, he would be the first (rarely) or second (usually) highest paid starter on all but one of them (where he would be 3rd).

[CDog]

Read through your entire post(again).

 

Spring training stats? Come on.....

You can keep saying the sky is green, but it doesn't make it so. And you kind of embarrass yourself when you do so.

[snepp]

And to repeat for your reinforcement...

 

"Do feel free to read entire sentences and paragraphs to get actual meaning."

Here's the real meaning.

 

Spring training stats are meaningless. If you don't bring them up in the first place you won't have to explain them away.

[alarp33]

You're overreacting!

 

woa dude stop, just please stop

 

Anybody Even Tim Lincecum, can put up 2 1/2 months of ERA @ 7.50 +

 

Its all about the context and the sample size.

 

Blackburns career ERA (useless statistic that it is) is still less than 5.00 ...........

 

Please stop it was not a Joke and just about ANY YEAR besides THIS Year and last, YES the Texas Rangers, would love to have had him in their 5th spot on opening day.

 

I will say 5th starters are easily replacable they're replacement Level players &Orgs.Like ours and the Rangers can pump them out 2-3 times a season. But I think Blacky is also hurt or not at 100% health. He's taking the ball because we ALL KNOW there really is nobody to come up and take his spot for him.

 

1st of all, his ERA in the last calender year is 7, so its not really a small sample size.

 

2nd of all, you bring up replacement level performance. Do you realize since the start of 2010 he has been worth 1.5 wins LESS than a replacement level player?

 

3rd, what injury does he currently have that isn't being reported? More than any pitcher I can ever remember he likes to make excuses after getting rocked, but his forearm was fixed in the offseason and he's 100% healthy

[shs_59]

Yes I realize these things, I guess I thought he was -0.5 or -1.0 To replacement level.

 

But he's been hurt too you know.

 

I'm not at all saying he's 100% healthy even right now.

Its the Twins Fault , my original point, not HIS that we signed him to that deal.

 

Ok?

 

Just stop it already

 

Its the Twins mistake the deal went down, not blackburns. He is what he is when healthy, a 4-5th starter.

[CDog]

Here's the real meaning.

 

Spring training stats are meaningless. If you don't bring them up in the first place you won't have to explain them away.

You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

[cr9617]

You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

I don't know what you are trying to prove with your little tantrum. It's probably best for all of us if you analyze spring training statistics on your own time.

Thanks for you cooperation.

[John Bonnes]

He hasn't been either effective OR durable since 2009. In 2010 & 2011 he averaged 150 IP and a 5+ ERA and this year he's been on the DL twice and has an ERA over 7. He's not good and he hasn't been good for quite some time.

 

And his salary is a little misleading, too. First, comparing him to other teams is tricky, since the is based on whether they were signed as free agents or in arbitration. The bottom line is that he hasn't earned his salary and he wouldn't be getting these chances if he didn't have that deal. Look at Marquis - he had a simiar deal for this year but was DFAed because he was terrible. The difference is the money next year, not this year.

 

BTW, I like Blackburns, but I savaged that deal when it was made. I wasn't alone. This is an organizational blind spot, because they did it with Silva and Mays, too. This is looking a lot like that Joe Mays deal, actually.

[jokin]

You just used "spring training" and "stats" in the same sentence. Therefore you think they matter. See how stupid that sounds? Every time I "brought them up" was to say that there weren't stats to properly measure spring training performance. If you're going to attack with snark, it really is a good idea to read what you're responding to. Or have someone do it for you that can understand. Because otherwise you sound dumb AND like a jerk. One of those at a time isn't so bad, but both at once is no fun for anyone.

Huh.

 

I agreed with your previous post about anonymous posters at their keyboard, demeaning people by calling them names and besmirching their character. I guess this post qualifies for your closing sentence, "two-at-a-time" qualifier, then. Such fun for everyone.

[CDog]

I don't know what you are trying to prove with your little tantrum. It's probably best for all of us if you analyze spring training statistics on your own time.

Thanks for you cooperation.

Each time you re-tell your lie gets a little bit more sad. Even more so because it is fairly clear that you think you're being clever.

[CDog]

And his salary is a little misleading, too. First, comparing him to other teams is tricky, since the is based on whether they were signed as free agents or in arbitration.

I agree that the salary comments weren't really an "analysis." It was really a reply to my own comment in an earlier post that I doubted he was paid like a typical # 3 starter.

[CDog]

Huh.

 

I agreed with your previous post about anonymous posters at their keyboard, demeaning people by calling them names and besmirching their character. I guess this post qualifies for your closing sentence, "two-at-a-time" qualifier, then. Such fun for everyone.

The post you refer to was about comments directed at athletes besmirching (that is a fantastic word) their personal character based on their athletic success. Responding to someone lying about what I've said...then doing it again...and then doing it again, and all while trying to belittle me based on said lie isn't nearly the same thing.

[Highabove]

Who cares if he is out of options. It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

[Rosterman]

The reincarnation of Carlos Silva. If you truly have the best fielding team, mainly. But he does give up the long-ball, too. Everyone ahs to be on when he pitches. And if he's just giving you five innings, you can find junkballers to do that any old day.

 

Cut the bugger. Take the salary hit this year. Let him Mike Lamb himself thru baseball with other teams. You ate Marquis. You can eat Blackburn. Get him off the roster if nothing else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

Yep. It would be a gift to the team if someone picked up his salary by claiming him.

[Thrylos]

Who cares if he is out of options. It would be a blessing if he was claimed by someone.

Same reason they should DFA Nishioka off the 40-man roster

[Paul]

I know a little about pitching. I hope this helps. The sinker that is Blackburn's bread and butter is a real finesse pitch. I believe the Twins staff, me, and plenty of others, were enamored with Blackburn because of his fleeting mastery of the pitch. And the belief that his simple mechanics put the unfleeting mastery of the pitch within his grasp. I have to admit that I haven't watched much of the Twins the past year so I really don't have an opinion on what's wrong now. I do know that the sinker must be mixed with at least 1 other pitch, and a SP needs to be able to change speeds. Because it tips the pitch, ML pitchers rarely succeed with different arm slots for different pitches. Unfortunately different arm slots work best for different pitches, so finding a slot that works best for the mix is challenging. Arm/shoulder/elbow pain can put a pitcher at odds with his body and render a particular pitch ineffective. If a sinker don't sink, or a cutter don't cut, or a slider don't slide, you ain't exactly helping out. Finally, you can hang a sinker just like a curveball, so if you aren't commanding whatever you're throwing you won't succeed. Blackburn could have 1 or all of these maladies, I don't know because I haven't seen him. But one thing's for certain, he's not carrying his end right now.

[DPJ]

I know a little about pitching. I hope this helps. The sinker that is Blackburn's bread and butter is a real finesse pitch. I believe the Twins staff, me, and plenty of others, were enamored with Blackburn because of his fleeting mastery of the pitch. And the belief that his simple mechanics put the unfleeting mastery of the pitch within his grasp. I have to admit that I haven't watched much of the Twins the past year so I really don't have an opinion on what's wrong now. I do know that the sinker must be mixed with at least 1 other pitch, and a SP needs to be able to change speeds. Because it tips the pitch, ML pitchers rarely succeed with different arm slots for different pitches. Unfortunately different arm slots work best for different pitches, so finding a slot that works best for the mix is challenging. Arm/shoulder/elbow pain can put a pitcher at odds with his body and render a particular pitch ineffective. If a sinker don't sink, or a cutter don't cut, or a slider don't slide, you ain't exactly helping out. Finally, you can hang a sinker just like a curveball, so if you aren't commanding whatever you're throwing you won't succeed. Blackburn could have 1 or all of these maladies, I don't know because I haven't seen him. But one thing's for certain, he's not carrying his end right now.

So to summerize...Nick Blackburn sucks.

[notoriousgod71]

This is a joke, right?

 

A capable 5th starter on a good baseball team? He has an ERA over 7.50. He wouldnt even crack the top 10 best starters in the Rangers org. You realize how bad he is getting crushed right? 400ft+ home runs are still going to leave Petco.

I question whether he'd be the number five starter at Rochester.

[notoriousgod71]

The reincarnation of Carlos Silva. If you truly have the best fielding team, mainly. But he does give up the long-ball, too. Everyone ahs to be on when he pitches. And if he's just giving you five innings, you can find junkballers to do that any old day.

 

Cut the bugger. Take the salary hit this year. Let him Mike Lamb himself thru baseball with other teams. You ate Marquis. You can eat Blackburn. Get him off the roster if nothing else.

We should have signed Rudy Eugene if that was the plan.