Nolasco Needs to go, what will it take.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think we are forgetting that we were last in pitching last year.  Chances are Nolasco is better than Milone and counting on Berrios for the rotation next year is iffy.  At that point we are one injury away from a Cole DeVries fill in situation.  Let's keep the pitching - its a long season.

To be clear, I'm not advocating the Twins to attempt this kind of move at the deadline... But it should be considered in the offseason if the pitching continues to look strong on the farm.

[Yoshii]

Nolasco isn't going anywhere now, duh!  He is the only SP that can strike out guys.  Hughes has regressed and doesn't have the ks anymore.  I feel like Nolasco could end the year as the Twins best SP.

[DaveW]

 

.  At that point we are one injury away from a Cole DeVries fill in situation.  Let's keep the pitching - its a long season.

Not true. With Santana coming back you now have 7 pitchers for 5 spots, if you trade Nolasco you still have 6 pitchers for 5 spots: Hughes, Santana, May, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone.

 

And that doesn't even include guys like Dean and Berrios who could help out ASAP in 2015 and guys like Hu, Meyer, Duffy, Rogers who could help out in late 2015 or 2016.

[Loosey]

I really don't see the point in trading a serviceable pitcher for scrap heap parts.  When healthy Nolasco has shown he can be a good #4 quality starter.  At this exact point in time outside of Milone (maybe) I don't see anyone else with that potential.  In the future, yes, many arms will hopefully be Major League ready and of higher quality than a #4.  Berrios, Gonsalves, Hu, Meyer, Rogers, Slegers.  But they would all get rocked at this point in the Majors.  So as bad as his contract is dollar and lengthwise, its ok to have a glut of pitchers who can pitch in the majors.  No need to trade Nolasco away.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really don't see the point in trading a serviceable pitcher for scrap heap parts.  When healthy Nolasco has shown he can be a good #4 quality starter.  At this exact point in time outside of Milone (maybe) I don't see anyone else with that potential.  In the future, yes, many arms will hopefully be Major League ready and of higher quality than a #4.  Berrios, Gonsalves, Hu, Meyer, Rogers, Slegers.  But they would all get rocked at this point in the Majors.  So as bad as his contract is dollar and lengthwise, its ok to have a glut of pitchers who can pitch in the majors.  No need to trade Nolasco away.  

While I agree that it's a good thing to have a glut of MLB starters, the day Santana returns the Twins will have seven capable MLB starters (of varying degrees of "capable"). You don't have to even include the MiLB kids to see a logjam forming in the rotation and it starts just ~30 days from now.

[DaveW]

 

 

Nolasco isn't going anywhere now, duh!  He is the only SP that can strike out guys.  Hughes has regressed and doesn't have the ks anymore.  I feel like Nolasco could end the year as the Twins best SP.

Well when you have a 1.643 WHIP you certainly are getting the opportunity to face more batters and thus "strike more out". Hughes has the same K rate in his career as Nolasco (all of it in the AL btw vs Nolasco being in the NL) and a much better BB rate, not sure how you are saying Hughes doesn't have the ks anymore when his whole career dictates that the number will surely rise back up.

 

The fact is Nolasco is a #5 type pitcher at this point, and the Twins have plenty of younger/better/cheaper options to fill in the back end of a rotation. And before someone points to Nolasco being "unlucky" and his FIP this year, it should be noted that in 1500+ career IP his career ERA is 70 points higher then his career FIP, which indicates that Nolasco is probably just a very hittable pitcher.

[gocgo]

 

Not true. With Santana coming back you now have 7 pitchers for 5 spots, if you trade Nolasco you still have 6 pitchers for 5 spots: Hughes, Santana, May, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone.

 

And that doesn't even include guys like Dean and Berrios who could help out ASAP in 2015 and guys like Hu, Meyer, Duffy, Rogers who could help out in late 2015 or 2016.

There seems to be a lot of people assuming that Santana will be good when he comes back from suspension.  The reality is that the guy tested positive for PEDS.  His stats for the last who knows how many years may have been bolstered by PEDS.  We don't know.  What I do know is that assuming that a 32 year old pitcher coming off suspension for PEDS is going to be good is not realistic.  That is one reason to keep Nolasco.  If you are going to trade a pitcher, Pelfrey makes more sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well when you have a 1.643 WHIP you certainly are getting the opportunity to face more batters and thus "strike more out". Hughes has the same K rate in his career as Nolasco (all of it in the AL btw vs Nolasco being in the NL) and a much better BB rate, not sure how you are saying Hughes doesn't have the ks anymore when his whole career dictates that the number will surely rise back up.

This is a good lesson on why one should use K%, not K/9.

 

Nolasco K/9: 7.1

Hughes K/9: 5.7

 

A difference of 26%.

 

Nolasco K%: 18.8

Hughes K%: 15.1

 

A difference of 20%.

 

Nolasco walks more, gives up more hits, and faces more batters. Therefore, his K/9 rate is skewed because he faces more batters per nine innings.

 

(all of this is separate from the fact that Hughes' numbers are well below his career norms while Nolasco's are right at his career norms)

[DaveW]

 

  What I do know is that assuming that a 32 year old pitcher coming off suspension for PEDS is going to be good is not realistic.

What? Actually thinking he will be good is very realistic. The majority of guys who get busted for PEDs come back strong. Cruz and Braun come to mind as two of the most recent ones.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you are going to trade a pitcher, Pelfrey makes more sense.

So instead of trading a middling starter with bad peripherals, you think it makes more sense for the Twins to trade their second best starter?

 

*scratches head in confusion*

[DaveW]

 

 

This is a good lesson on why one should use K%, not K/9.

 

Nolasco K/9: 7.1

Hughes K/9: 5.7

 

A difference of 26%.

 

Nolasco K%: 18.8

Hughes K%: 15.1

 

A difference of 20%.

 

Nolasco walks more, gives up more hits, and faces more batters. Therefore, his K/9 rate is skewed because he faces more batters per nine innings.

 

(all of this is separate from the fact that Hughes' numbers are well below his career norms while Nolasco's are right at his career norms)

Yeah I am a much bigger fan of K%

[gocgo]

 

What? Actually thinking he will be good is very realistic. The majority of guys who get busted for PEDs come back strong. Cruz and Braun come to mind as two of the most recent ones.

I'm not a fan of 32 year old pitchers...unless they are on PEDS!  The stats just don't favor 32 year old pitchers just like they don't favor 30 year old running backs in the NFL.  I didn't like the signing because of his age.  The PEDs just soured me even further.

[gocgo]

 

So instead of trading a middling starter with bad peripherals, you think it makes more sense for the Twins to trade their second best starter?

 

*scratches head in confusion*

Exactly.  Trading Nolasco with his contract will get very little and will cost the Twins a healthy penny.  Trading Pelf at this stage of his contract with his peripherals is more likely to net a higher return.  Sell high!

[gocgo]

Let me clarify on Pelfrey.  If you think that he is going to continue to pitch at this level and lead the Twins to the playoffs, by all means, keep him, but realize that he is probably gone next year.  If you think he is more likely to digress and you feel that you could net a good prospect for him, trade him.  I think the odds of the latter are more likely.

[Jham]

 

Let me clarify on Pelfrey.  If you think that he is going to continue to pitch at this level and lead the Twins to the playoffs, by all means, keep him, but realize that he is probably gone next year.  If you think he is more likely to digress and you feel that you could net a good prospect for him, trade him.  I think the odds of the latter are more likely.

I think Twinsdaily would straight up supernova if the Twins extended Pelfrey again...  but somehow, someway, this is actually a legitimate possibility...  I think I'm for trading Pelf just to avoid the powder keg.

[tobi0040]

 

I think Twinsdaily would straight up supernova if the Twins extended Pelfrey again...  but somehow, someway, this is actually a legitimate possibility...  I think I'm for trading Pelf just to avoid the powder keg.

 

Crazy as this sounds.  Given Ervin's playoff suspension, maybe keeping Pelf makes sense.

 

I never thought I would type that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Exactly. Trading Nolasco with his contract will get very little and will cost the Twins a healthy penny. Trading Pelf at this stage of his contract with his peripherals is more likely to net a higher return. Sell high!

Who cares about selling high when the Twins are in first place? That should be the furthest thing from our minds.

[tobi0040]

 

Who cares about selling high when the Twins are in first place? That should be the furthest thing from our minds.

 

The Tigers didn't move Cabrera last year!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Crazy as this sounds.  Given Ervin's playoff suspension, maybe keeping Pelf makes sense.

 

There's no "maybe" about it. Pelfrey is one of a handful of guys (maybe 5-6) that have directly contributed to the 30-19 record.

 

I don't care of Pelfrey turns back into Bad Mike in his next start. You roll the dice and take a chance here that you've captured lightning in a bottle.

[gocgo]

 

Who cares about selling high when the Twins are in first place? That should be the furthest thing from our minds.

If I didn't think we had people waiting in the wings who could handle the load, I would agree.  However, with a number of candidates waiting to step in, it makes the most sense to trade the guy who is a- performing above any level he has in the past  and b - in the last year of his contract.  It's just a business decision, not anything against the guy or in any way thinking that the Twins won't keep this up.

 

My only concern would be what effect it has on the clubhouse.

[gocgo]

 

There's no "maybe" about it. Pelfrey is one of a handful of guys (maybe 5-6) that have directly contributed to the 30-19 record.

 

I don't care of Pelfrey turns back into Bad Mike in his next start. You roll the dice and take a chance here that you've captured lightning in a bottle.

Hey, if I thought we could trade Santana and get out of that contract, I'd do that in a heartbeat over trading Pelf.

[Cast of Thousands]

These things have a way of taking care of themselves over time.

 

You don't like the logjam of pitchers at various levels in the organization, starting at the top?  Injuries and/or ineffectiveness usually takes care of these things.

 

For example, I would highly doubt that by even July 1 the Twins will have a starting rotation that consists of Hughes, Gibson, May, Pelfrey, and Nolasco.

 

Be patient.  These things take care of themselves more often than not.

[SwainZag]

 

Who cares about selling high when the Twins are in first place? That should be the furthest thing from our minds.

 

I agree.  If the Twins are still in the hunt on July 31 and Pelf is still pitching well, he should be in there helping the team.  If the Twins go on a bad streak and fall back in the races and Pelf is still tossing well, by all means get what you can for him.

[Linus]

They should keep all of them for the year if they are still winning and in a pennant race.  The kids that we are so concerned about getting a chance are not helping us this year.  IF they step up and earn a shot at the big leagues, that can be dealt with over the winter.

 

In the meantime keep all the pitching you can lay your hands on - could be the deciding factor in grabbing a wild card spot.

[kab21]

You guys are making up this problem called a logjam of pitchers.  Good teams have 1-2 capable starters in AAA ready to go when one starter goes down.  One reason bad teams struggle is that they are calling up AAAA guys that don't belong in the majors.

 

I don't believe in Nolasco at all.  If the Twins could find someone to take half of the contract then I would drive him to the airport (except I live in Taiwan) but I am nearly certain that is impossible.  The issue is that he's been sort of effective (not great) and the Twins would have to pay 80-90% of the contract to move him for nothing.  That is a pointless move to make in an era where pitchers drop like flies.

[Yoshii]

 

Well when you have a 1.643 WHIP you certainly are getting the opportunity to face more batters and thus "strike more out". Hughes has the same K rate in his career as Nolasco (all of it in the AL btw vs Nolasco being in the NL) and a much better BB rate, not sure how you are saying Hughes doesn't have the ks anymore when his whole career dictates that the number will surely rise back up.

 

The fact is Nolasco is a #5 type pitcher at this point, and the Twins have plenty of younger/better/cheaper options to fill in the back end of a rotation. And before someone points to Nolasco being "unlucky" and his FIP this year, it should be noted that in 1500+ career IP his career ERA is 70 points higher then his career FIP, which indicates that Nolasco is probably just a very hittable pitcher.

Nice Response.