Article: Twins Draft Preview: The Big Three

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Keeping up with the latest mock drafts has a similar feeling to walking into the local Culver’s and checking the Flavor of the Day. Is it one you like? No? Then check back tomorrow. It might not be the one you want, but it will almost certainly be different.

 

That’s the feeling that I continue to get as I check out the latest forecasts from the “experts”. By no means is it a rip on them. The facts are clear: No one knows who is going where. In fact, the bombshell that Keith Law dropped recently - that the Diamondbacks have settled on their guy - is something I felt was vastly underreported. Though maybe it wasn’t underreported. He basically said, “The Diamondbacks know who they are taking” and then went on to speculate who it might be… but basically has no idea.Plotting out the ways the Twins could go at #6 would be a lot of speculation, though it isn’t because it’s impossible to tell who the Twins like. It’s impossible to have any idea who may or may not go in the five spots that precede the Twins making their selection.

 

Because of that “murkiness”, it was hard to settle on guys to profile in this series. Because of the lack of consensus in the Top 10, it made it nearly impossible to settle on guys to profile in this series. So that forced us to get creative (in a way that didn’t involve a month of profiles for you to read).

 

The first installment in our profile series will feature three guys: Three guys we don’t expect to make it out of the Top 5. But let’s also be honest: There is great mystery surrounding those Top 5 picks, so there’s always a chance something crazy happens. One of these guys could drop, sure… but I view the chance of any of these guys dropping at less than 10%

 

Who are these guys?

 

Dansby Swanson, a shortstop from Vanderbilt, has “do-it-all” ability. While he’s not going to be a 20-homer guy, he’ll give you everything else you want from your shortstop. Without that power, you can’t be a five-tool guy, but Swanson has that sixth tool: genius-level baseball IQ. I’m sure Paul Molitor dreams about getting guys like this, but he’ll have to keep dreaming: there’s literally zero chance that Swanson falls out of the Top 3, let alone the Top 5.

 

Brendan Rodgers is a prep shortstop from Florida. He’s resided at the top of draft boards since last June. He was great last summer, but was less than great this spring. And then his team got bounced early. But being good and staying healthy was enough to keep him near the top of the board. Committed to Florida State, Rodgers has gotten bigger and stronger and won’t get near Tallahassee (to go to class anyway).

 

If you’re a non-believer, you might say Rodgers lacks the athleticism to stick at shortstop. The thing of it is, even without playing a premium defensive position, Rodgers could be a Top 5 pick if he’s a third baseman because of his bat. The Astros, who pick twice before the Twins, are said to like others more than Rodgers. And they’re unlikely to pick two shortstops. That helps his chances to fall, but the Rockies and Rangers would be crazy to pass on such a talent.

 

The lone member of this group that could fall (and I say “could” as still less than a 10% chance) is Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate, a right-handed pitcher. Tate gained notoriety by being the best arm in the bullpen for USA’s Collegiate National Team last summer. And now he’s starting for the Gauchos and showing the same stuff. His fastball has been up to 98 with arm-side run. His slider is high-80s and devastating. His other stuff is still “in progress”, but Neil Allen would love to teach him a change-up.

 

If that happened, he’s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, that is… if his arm can handle it. He’ll throw over 100 innings this year after throwing less than 50 combined his previous two seasons. I’ll tell you this, though, if Tate’s name hasn’t been announced by the time the Astros make their pick at five, the Twins should sprint that card to the podium and party in the draft room.

 

Why the Twins would pick them?

 

It’s clear that these are the best players in the draft and the Twins would be elated for any of them to fall into their laps.

 

Why the Twins would not pick them?

 

Well, the easy answer is because they wouldn’t be able to. The more complicated question, “Why would the Twins would pass on them?” is a bit more complicated. Since the draft rules changed, the top picks are getting $6 million or more. The exceptions are Carlos Correa (who cut a deal) and Jon Gray (who had just been flagged for a failed drug test).

 

The consensus top guys, who these three are, always got their money. Mark Appel, who was expected to go number one before falling, didn’t get his money (that year) after failing to reach an agreement with the Pirates. So there is definitely risk when you draft a guy that falls. The difference, though, is that teams are better prepared to handle the ramifications of this new draft procedure now that they’ve gone through it three times; the Pirates weren’t prepared and had they been, they would have known they weren’t going to be able to sign Appel.

 

While there aren’t many (any?) sure things in this draft, these three fall into the “best-bets” category and the Twins would be lucky to get any one of them. Unfortunately, that just doesn’t appear to be a likely scenario.

 

Click here to view the article

[Seth Stohs]

The shortstops would be nice, but Tate kind of scares me as high as six.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, definitely not an expert here, but I'd probably go with the best prep pitcher out there (Allard) who might cut a deal b/c it sounds like he isn't a lock for top 6 or someone like Happ.  I wouldn't mind having a quick moving impact bat. 

[tobi0040]

I like allard a lot too. The twins have never tried an under slot pick with their top pick, but this could be the year. Really a tight group between 4 and 15 or so. If we like someone more than others that looks to be drafted later it may make sense.

 

Our success with Gonslaves may push us in that direction.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Well, definitely not an expert here, but I'd probably go with the best prep pitcher out there (Allard) who might cut a deal b/c it sounds like he isn't a lock for top 6 or someone like Happ.  I wouldn't mind having a quick moving impact bat.

 

Teams and players alike will be looking to cut deals to make sure they don't drop. I don't remember where I heard it, but the difference between the 5th pick and 22nd pick ability-wise isn't much, but if you take a lot less money at 5, you're still making more than if you drop. The motivation is there for both teams. Still believe Twins go BPA. Allard will be in the mix, if healthy. Happ probably not.

[gunnarthor]

Love the idea of Tate dropping to 6 but I still don't see that happening.  Agree that if any of them are there at 6, grab them. 

 

Outside of those 3, Allard seems to be linked to us a lot.

[amjgt]

Offer an upside guy well under slot. If he takes it you've got extra money to spend on the competitive balance pick and rounds 3-5. If he doesn't take it, you'll have the 7th pick in what HAS to be a better draft in 2016.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The other side of the "under slot" coin is that us fans would expect them to go overslot later. They'll be competing with Arizona and Houston every round for the guys that are falling... and they'll be doing it with far less money. 

 

So if you're going to go "under slot", you need to have a plan in place to reallocate that money. If every team does it, there's a chance you end up not spending it all... and that would make the fans even more mad than just paying slot to every one.

 

Obviously there are hundreds of players, and every team's plan has to be reactionary to the players that are on the board when they pick. 

 

Long story short, if the Twins do pick a year to go under slot and spend big later, this year isn't the year (except that it is the last Top 10 pick year - hopefully - and you need to start with money to save money).

[Winston Smith]

I'm not sure why you would worry about getting a guy under slot when the next pick isn't until 73. Just take the best guy and pay him. By the 73/80 picks it's a crap shoot anyway.

[gunnarthor]

I think skimping on the first pick to get more in later rounds doesn't makes sense when you don't have a 2nd round pick.  Just get the BPA and go from there. 

[Hrbowski]

 

Teams and players alike will be looking to cut deals to make sure they don't drop. I don't remember where I heard it, but the difference between the 5th pick and 22nd pick ability-wise isn't much, but if you take a lot less money at 5, you're still making more than if you drop. The motivation is there for both teams. Still believe Twins go BPA. Allard will be in the mix, if healthy. Happ probably not.

Hey Jeremy, I saw somewhere on Twitter (can't remember where) that said Happ could be the Randy Gregory of the MLB draft. Do you have any idea what is going on?

[nater79a]

Hoe does the forfeited 2nd round pick (for Ervin Santana) affect the Twins' pool dollars?  Maybe it will provide them a little flexibility in their offers.

 

Wonder if there's a chance the Twins try to acquire another competitive balance pick since they don't have their 2nd anymore,  Think I read it will cost an average of $1.8 - $2 mill to sign a comp bal pick between rds 1-2;  $800,000 between rds 2-3.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Hoe does the forfeited 2nd round pick (for Ervin Santana) affect the Twins' pool dollars?  Maybe it will provide them a little flexibility in their offers.

 

Wonder if there's a chance the Twins try to acquire another competitive balance pick since they don't have their 2nd anymore,  Think I read it will cost an average of $1.8 - $2 mill to sign a comp bal pick between rds 1-2;  $800,000 between rds 2-3.

 

A team only gets pool dollars for picks they actually have. So any flexibility depends on going under cap at #6.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Hey Jeremy, I saw somewhere on Twitter (can't remember where) that said Happ could be the Randy Gregory of the MLB draft. Do you have any idea what is going on?

 

My mock will be up tonight. You'll see where I have Happ going.

[nater79a]

 

A team only gets pool dollars for picks they actually have. So any flexibility depends on going under cap at #6.

 

Okay...gotcha. Was wondering about that. Thanks.

[Thegrin]

Who is the best of the Minnesota kids, coming out of High School ?

[Hrbowski]

 

Who is the best of the Minnesota kids, coming out of High School ?

Ty Buck is pretty good, and there are a few pitchers to keep an eye on, including Sean Hjelle.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Who is the best of the Minnesota kids, coming out of High School ?

That will get a post of its own.