Article: What Would a Francisco Liriano Trade Look Like?

[DaveW]

I would'nt hate a 2-3 yr deal, what's he making this yr...$10 mil. 2yr/$22 mil or 3/$30, they have about $20 mil or so coming off don't they?? If the Jays are really interested in Justin that's another $13 mil even if the Twins eat a 1/3rd of his salary for next yr that's still plenty of $$ fo a FA starter. It also allows Parm to actually play, I'm not saying i want to trade Morneau but it makes sense if your trying to rebuild your rotation and FA or trade will get it done not waiting for the young kids. Span is another $5 mil off the books if you can trade him.

Liriano is making 5.5 million this year. I wouldn't give him 10 million a year, and I don't think he will get anywhere near that on the FA market, a 1 year/7 mil deal or 2/13 I would be interested in. But that is only because I always have this feeling he is due for an amazing run. Fool me once..etc I know, but I can't shake the feeling where he could just go lights out one year and lead a team to the playoffs.

 

With that all said, if Grienke is unavailable or at least partially unavaible (won't goto a major market) Liriano very well could find himself as the best candidate on the block (Garza will cost a lot prospect wise), if you can get a nice prospect or two for him you don't hesitate for a second to pull the trigger. However if you are offered garbage maybe you keep him around and hope you can resign him?

[CDog]

C'mon really????

You're here enough to know a troll. I know, I know...sometimes it's just too unbelievable to not respond, but we all must try...

[CDog]

I've half-asked this question elsewhere and I was even going to start a thread on it, but it seems to be on topic here enough to include. Somewhere I'm missing something in the changes for offering arbitration and getting compensation picks. So...can someone tell me where I'm astray here?

 

My understanding of the old system and timeline: After the season, a team could offer a free agent arbitration. If they declined, they became a free agent (and the team would receive first round or sandwich picks depending on Type A or Type B status). If they accepted, THEN the team and the player would submit their salary number and there was a period where they could negotiate any deal with the player before the actual arbitration hearing. At the time of the hearing (assuming they hadn't come to an agreement on their own), the arbitrator picked one.

 

My understanding of the new system and timeline: After the season, a team can offer a free agent arbitration. If they decline an offer of ~$12M, then the offering team gets a compensation pick(s?). But...isn't the amount the team submits only available AFTER the decision is made to accept or decline? So I don't get how the amount is tied to whether or not they get compensation.

 

Does any of that make sense? Does anyone know how it works or where I'm missing something (that I'm guessing is obvious)? I suppose I could go try to find it myself, but I'll first attempt here to see if anyone knows.

[Guest USAFChief]

The team could reject the option and sign a different extension. But your points on why he is a risk are valid, however the problem is that none of these arguments are all that much more convincing than the same I'm making against Liriano. Yes, Baker is likely to be a mystery next year with a good chance of being a bad investment. But in that second year, like some other starters who have had TJ, he could be even better than he has been. (And he's been better than people think) But as you say....why not risk a little money on that? The difference, in my eyes with Baker, is that he hasn't been nearly as awful as Liriano has been prone to being.

 

Just to put it in context, there were only 9 pitchers with a worse ERA in 2011 than Liriano with more than 120 IP. Only 12 with a worse WHIP. His K/BB ratio was only .08 better than Nick friggin Blackburn. His most comparable current pitcher is Dice-K over his current career. I can go on. We're not "idiots" for wanting to avoid giving our personal Dice-K a guaranteed 40 million. He'll have some value, let's cash in on it.

I doubt anyone on the Twin is even considering an extension for Baker. For that matter, I doubt Baker would accept "hey, we want to decline your 2013 option, but sign you to a cheap extension instead...ok?" from the Twins.

 

As to comparable risks, Liriano didn't have TJ a couple months ago. The risk with Liriano is that he might not pitch well. The risk with Baker is that he won't pitch at all, and if he does, he might not pitch well.

 

I like Baker, always have, and I agree he's been underrated by many Twins fans. That does not mean I think he'll be a front of the rotation starter in 2013. Nor do I think there's any logic to depending on Scott Baker to man your rotation in 2013.

 

BTW, I don't think there would be any need to commit $40M to Liriano. I think you could get him for 3 yrs for somewhere between $20-$24.

 

I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.

[TheLeviathan]

I like Baker, always have, and I agree he's been underrated by many Twins fans. That does not mean I think he'll be a front of the rotation starter in 2013. Nor do I think there's any logic to depending on Scott Baker to man your rotation in 2013.

 

I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.

Nor is there any logic in thinking a guy who has been in the bottom ten of starting pitchers in 2 of the last 3 seasons and still has an ERA over 5 is somehow a "top of the rotation" talent. It would be one thing if you had some balanced expectations behind your thinking. But you don't. Hell, Liriano has been SO BAD in two of the last three seasons that even if Baker didn't pitch at all you could argue AAA filler might be no worse than Frankie has been. Is there potential for him to put it together? Sure, but not worth that kind of guaranteed money.

 

It's cute to call it "idiotic" to want him gone when at the same time you are virtually in denial about how terrible his results have actually been. Just because you have money doesn't mean you flush it on someone who has ACTUALLY been awful in HOPE that he won't be.

 

Ortiz is an awful comparison. The Twins, if anything, have overly babied Liriano and done everything in their power to make things work for him. They appreciate his talent and want him to succeed. Kelly was Ortiz' enemy. Liriano is his own worst enemy. Huge difference. I understand the general concern, it's just blinded you to the reality of Liriano.

[Guest USAFChief]

I've half-asked this question elsewhere and I was even going to start a thread on it, but it seems to be on topic here enough to include. Somewhere I'm missing something in the changes for offering arbitration and getting compensation picks. So...can someone tell me where I'm astray here?

 

My understanding of the old system and timeline: After the season, a team could offer a free agent arbitration. If they declined, they became a free agent (and the team would receive first round or sandwich picks depending on Type A or Type B status). If they accepted, THEN the team and the player would submit their salary number and there was a period where they could negotiate any deal with the player before the actual arbitration hearing. At the time of the hearing (assuming they hadn't come to an agreement on their own), the arbitrator picked one.

 

My understanding of the new system and timeline: After the season, a team can offer a free agent arbitration. If they decline an offer of ~$12M, then the offering team gets a compensation pick(s?). But...isn't the amount the team submits only available AFTER the decision is made to accept or decline? So I don't get how the amount is tied to whether or not they get compensation.

 

Does any of that make sense? Does anyone know how it works or where I'm missing something (that I'm guessing is obvious)? I suppose I could go try to find it myself, but I'll first attempt here to see if anyone knows.

You can find the information here: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/cba.jsp Download the 2012-2016 basic agreement.

 

The gist (pp 84-89): In order to qualify for compensation, a team has to offer a free agent a one yr contract equal to the average of the 125 highest paid players from the preceeding season (I believe it was in the neighborhood of $12.4M this past offseason). If the player turns down that contract and signs with another team, his former team is entitled to a "sandwich pick" immediately after the first round. Sandwich picks are awarded based on reverse order of W/L percentage from the previous season.

 

Lots more detail and legalize there, but that's the much abridged version.

 

RE: Liriano...the Twins would need to offer him a contract in the neighborhood of $12.5M this offseason, and be turned down, to get one sandwich pick in the next rule 4 draft.

[CDog]

You can find the information here: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/cba.jsp Download the 2012-2016 basic agreement.

 

The gist (pp 84-89): In order to qualify for compensation, a team has to offer a free agent a one yr contract equal to the average of the 125 highest paid players from the preceeding season (I believe it was in the neighborhood of $12.4M this past offseason). If the player turns down that contract and signs with another team, his former team is entitled to a "sandwich pick" immediately after the first round. Sandwich picks are awarded based on reverse order of W/L percentage from the previous season.

 

Lots more detail and legalize there, but that's the much abridged version.

 

RE: Liriano...the Twins would need to offer him a contract in the neighborhood of $12.5M this offseason, and be turned down, to get one sandwich pick in the next rule 4 draft.

The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?

[Guest USAFChief]

The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?

Salary arbitration (See pg 17 in the CBA) is for players with between 3 and 6 yrs MLB service time (plus "super twos), and as far as I can tell, this hasn't changed other than a minor change to the definition of "super two." During this time, the player is "reserved" to their team and cannot become a free agent unless released by the team. Salary arbitration is at the discretion of the player, not the club...if a club wants to keep a player between years 3 and 6, they must agree to arb if the player requests. For players past 6 yrs service time, if a player wants to arbitrate, the club has to agree to the procedure. Arbitration is seldom used for players past 6 yrs.

 

Liriano is, I believe, a free agent at the end of this season. The Twins no longer hold his rights. Arbitration most likely isn't an issue, so yes, the Twins can make any offer they want (I don't believe this situation falls under the "maximum salary reduction" clause, see pg 12, since Liriano is not under "reserve" after this season.). Liriano can accept or decline.

 

In order to receive comp for Liriano, the Twins would have to make an offer as noted in the post above.

 

That's how I read it. Feel free to struggle through the legal mumbo jumbo if you want to confirm/deny.

[jokin]

The legalese is pretty much what I was hoping to avoid. Hmmm. Your gist is about what I've heard, but I guess I don't get if the arbitration part is just gone now (for someone entering free agency)? Or...what? For instance, what if they just wanted to offer him $7M? Do they just make that offer and the player accepts or not?

 

They can offer him the $7M. Liriano is indeed, an unrestricted FA at the end of the season.

 

By my reading of the CBA and yes, there is a level of opaqueness in the legalese language, there is a certain period of time, about a week after the end of the World Series, the "dead period", where the soon-to-be FAs can be offered by the previous team the "qualifying-for-compensation contract number" and contacted by prospective teams without specific contract offering language, and then a follow-up 7-day period for the impending FA to consider accepting or rejecting the previous team's offer. This apparently is the procedure to determine whether or not the previous team is entitled to a comp pick. Once FA is official, the Twins could make the $7M offer. It's hard to imagine, given Liriano's erratic history, that anyone will offer that much without heavy incentives and other protections for the offering team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

someone would overpay, though I suspect Francisco is going to go the Ed Jackson route this season... so if the Twins offer 12.4, he takes it.

[CDog]

Salary arbitration (See pg 17 in the CBA) is for players with between 3 and 6 yrs MLB service time (plus "super twos), and as far as I can tell, this hasn't changed other than a minor change to the definition of "super two." During this time, the player is "reserved" to their team and cannot become a free agent unless released by the team. Salary arbitration is at the discretion of the player, not the club...if a club wants to keep a player between years 3 and 6, they must agree to arb if the player requests. For players past 6 yrs service time, if a player wants to arbitrate, the club has to agree to the procedure. Arbitration is seldom used for players past 6 yrs.

 

Liriano is, I believe, a free agent at the end of this season. The Twins no longer hold his rights. Arbitration most likely isn't an issue, so yes, the Twins can make any offer they want (I don't believe this situation falls under the "maximum salary reduction" clause, see pg 12, since Liriano is not under "reserve" after this season.). Liriano can accept or decline.

 

In order to receive comp for Liriano, the Twins would have to make an offer as noted in the post above.

 

That's how I read it. Feel free to struggle through the legal mumbo jumbo if you want to confirm/deny.

I think either I'm confusing some terminology or had misinterpreted something in the past. For instance, haven't the Twins offered arbitration to Pavano (before working out deals with him between the offering and when the hearing would have been)? Or wasn't there something like they had to offer one of the Orlandos arbitration with the wink-wink agreement that he wouldn't accept it so that the Twins would get the compensation pick? Maybe there was different system for guys who had already had a free agent contract and those that were first entering? I don't mean to beat a dead horse here (despite the fact that I likely am).

[Rytwin]

I think either I'm confusing some terminology or had misinterpreted something in the past. For instance, haven't the Twins offered arbitration to Pavano (before working out deals with him between the offering and when the hearing would have been)? Or wasn't there something like they had to offer one of the Orlandos arbitration with the wink-wink agreement that he wouldn't accept it so that the Twins would get the compensation pick? Maybe there was different system for guys who had already had a free agent contract and those that were first entering? I don't mean to beat a dead horse here (despite the fact that I likely am).

I'm not sure what the rules are now, but in the past a team could offer arbitration to any player whose contract had just expired at the the end of the season.

 

The player's 3-6 years of service were called his "arbitration years" because if he did not reach a separate deal with the team he was required to go through arbitration if the team offered it--the player could not decline arbitration.

 

Once a player had 6 years of service, he could still be offered arbitration (and had to be if the team wanted to receive any compensatory draft picks if the player left in free agency), but the player had the option to decline, which happened quite often.

[CDog]

Once a player had 6 years of service, he could still be offered arbitration (and had to be if the team wanted to receive any compensatory draft picks if the player left in free agency), but the player had the option to decline, which happened quite often.

This is the part I'm assuming changed. And I'm wondering the details of how. Is arbitration for players after 6 years gone? Just not connected to compensation picks? Other...?

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is the part I'm assuming changed. And I'm wondering the details of how. Is arbitration for players after 6 years gone? Just not connected to compensation picks? Other...?

nope, still there... except that to get picks, the compensation amount needs to be around 12M. I can offer a scrub an arb award of 2M, but if the scrub leaves for greener pastures, I'm not getting a comp pick...

[CDog]

nope, still there... except that to get picks, the compensation amount needs to be around 12M. I can offer a scrub an arb award of 2M, but if the scrub leaves for greener pastures, I'm not getting a comp pick...

But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).

[mini_tb]

I can't help but feel if the Twins give Liriano away, this will be looked on as a David Ortiz situation a few years from now. The Twins had a guy with enormous talent on their hands, didn't appreciate what they had, incomprehensibly chose to spend money on Matthew Lecroy instead of Ortiz, and had egg on their face almost immediately.

 

This is just picking nits, but I believe the Twins let David Ortiz walk to make room for Doug Mientkiewicz.

[SweetOne69]

But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).

 

You are correct in the timing. What has changed is that now when you offer a player FA Arbitration your offer is at least the average of the top 150 salaries.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is just picking nits, but I believe the Twins let David Ortiz walk to make room for Doug Mientkiewicz.

I think it had more to do with Matt LeCroy. Both were lumbering sluggers who couldn't play a lick of defense. Ortiz had injury troubles, LeCroy less service time. A bad decision but that ship has long sailed.

[mini_tb]

How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.

 

The Braves as a trade partner also make me curious. The only lefty in their rotation, Mike Minor, has been flat out terrible, so I would think they would not mind trading for a southpaw starter. With Minor, Jurrjens, Delgado, and Teheran (in AAA) largely ineffective, and their best starter, Brandon Beachy, out for a year+ with TJ surgery, Frank Wren and company have got to be on the lookout for an impact starter or 2 to try to send Chipper Jones out in style.

 

In fact, the only reliable starters they have left are Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hanson has had his shoulder woes last year, so he's not a given down the stretch. And Hudson's already been out with a bad back and a bad ankle this season.

 

I wonder if the Twins could manage to pry away 1 of Teheran, Minor, or Delgado in a Liriano trade... Any thoughts there?

 

The Braves also make an interesting trade target for the Twins because their centerfielder, Michael Bourn, is a free agent at the end of the season. His services will be costly to retain. He is a Scott Boras client, and he is likely to get too much money and too many years for an aging speed guy with fringy on base skills. Liberty Media keeps the Braves' payroll pretty low, and they don't seem to have much of a backup plan waiting in the wings to replace Bourn. Could they be interested in one of Span, Revere, or even Aaron Hicks as a CF replacement?

 

Thoughts on any of this?

[StormJH1]

How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.

 

 

An interesting thought with the Yankees, except I think New York has probably learned by now to stay away from guys who exhibit any signs of being a headcase or having confidence problems. For example, there were some questions about how Zack Greinke would respond if he gave up 8 earned runs in a start and got destroyed by a Daily cover the next morning. Liriano, even in his GOOD years, was never an effective starter in September for AL Central pennant races, let along Yankees/Red Sox/Rays. Plus, if the Yankees really wanted him, there probably would have been other times they could have pursued him, and apparently haven't to any large degree.

 

I keep hearing about all these teams that need a center-fielder, and how Span is the top guy, but is he really? What about Peter Bourjos on the Angels? They have a terrible log-jam in the outfield, and Bourjos is the odd man out. He also just turned 25, is probably a better defensive center fielder than Span, and also a more reliable stolen base threat (Span looks like he's going to get picked off every time he's on base). True, Span is more of a ready-made leadoff hitter, but I think Bourjos fills a lot of those defensive concerns at what would likely be a more reasonable price, and he's younger and doesn't have the concussion issues.

[biggentleben]

But that's where the timing of things doesn't make sense to me. By the time the arbitration process gets to an offer amount ($12M or $2M or whatever it is), the player has already agreed to the arbitration process, which means he's NOT leaving for greener pastures. So there's nothing to be compensated for. That is, if my understanding is correct that it goes: team offers arbitration process, player accepts (or doesn't), THEN team and player submit their amounts (assuming offer of process was accepted).

This is where terminology gets in the way (and I apologize if someone else has already made this, but I responded after enough comments with incorrect terminology were confusing folks). "Arbitration" to free agents is gone. Period. There is a qualifying offer now, which is basically accepted or denied, and that offer must be "at least" the amount of the average of the 125 highest paid players. It's a flat offer, not an arbitration-type offer. The player has an actual one-year contract offer in place. If the player accepts, he can play just for that contract, or he can negotiate further for a long-term deal with just that team. If he denies, he's open season for anyone, including his previous team.

 

The big thing everyone needs to be aware of is that any upcoming free agent will get MUCH, MUCH less in trade offers because no longer will a team be able to acquire a player mid-season and get a compensatory pick. The player must be on the team for the entire season in order to get any compensation pick, so a guy like Liriano that will be a free agent this year will get much, much less in trade than a guy like Garza who still has a full year of contract/arbitration left for a team to control and then get a pick.

[biggentleben]

How do the injuries to the Yankees lefty starters, Sabathia (groin) and Pettitte (ankle), affect Liriano's trade value? Freddy Garcia and David Phelps do not sound like a Yankees-like solution to me. Sabathia may only miss a few starts, but 6+ weeks on 245 year old Pettitte does not sound good.

 

The Braves as a trade partner also make me curious. The only lefty in their rotation, Mike Minor, has been flat out terrible, so I would think they would not mind trading for a southpaw starter. With Minor, Jurrjens, Delgado, and Teheran (in AAA) largely ineffective, and their best starter, Brandon Beachy, out for a year+ with TJ surgery, Frank Wren and company have got to be on the lookout for an impact starter or 2 to try to send Chipper Jones out in style.

 

In fact, the only reliable starters they have left are Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hanson has had his shoulder woes last year, so he's not a given down the stretch. And Hudson's already been out with a bad back and a bad ankle this season.

 

I wonder if the Twins could manage to pry away 1 of Teheran, Minor, or Delgado in a Liriano trade... Any thoughts there?

 

The Braves also make an interesting trade target for the Twins because their centerfielder, Michael Bourn, is a free agent at the end of the season. His services will be costly to retain. He is a Scott Boras client, and he is likely to get too much money and too many years for an aging speed guy with fringy on base skills. Liberty Media keeps the Braves' payroll pretty low, and they don't seem to have much of a backup plan waiting in the wings to replace Bourn. Could they be interested in one of Span, Revere, or even Aaron Hicks as a CF replacement?

 

Thoughts on any of this?

No way that Delgado or Teheran are part of any deal for Liriano. The Braves are VERY tight on funds, so it is highly doubtful they could afford to take on all of Liriano without some cash coming back in the deal. The Braves do have a good chunk of funds available for 2013 and beyond, but they also have one of the youngest rosters in all of MLB, so they will likely be doing some extending of current options before opening their checkbook in the offseason. Span would make a lot of sense in the offseason as a trade, and the Braves may even be looking to move a guy like Hanson in the right deal (if the Twins were looking more toward a front-end starter). For right now, Span is a tough sell midseason unless it's a very nice deal for the Braves in some way, shape, or form.

[biggentleben]

I keep hearing about all these teams that need a center-fielder, and how Span is the top guy, but is he really? What about Peter Bourjos on the Angels? They have a terrible log-jam in the outfield, and Bourjos is the odd man out. He also just turned 25, is probably a better defensive center fielder than Span, and also a more reliable stolen base threat (Span looks like he's going to get picked off every time he's on base). True, Span is more of a ready-made leadoff hitter, but I think Bourjos fills a lot of those defensive concerns at what would likely be a more reasonable price, and he's younger and doesn't have the concussion issues.

Span would make a lot more sense for the Braves, at least because he's basically a lite version of what they'd be replacing - leadoff guy, excellent defense.

[twinswon1991]

Span would make a lot more sense for the Braves, at least because he's basically a lite version of what they'd be replacing - leadoff guy, excellent defense.

 

Add Gerrardo Parra to Bourjos as tradeable CF that are better and or younger than Span. We need to temper our expectations in trading Span. I would be happy with an A ball hard throwing SP prospect as a return since it looks like the Twins are 3 YEARS from being competitive.

[chopper0080]

A couple of points...

 

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

 

2: As far as the return for Liriano, I think we have to realize the most likely option is probably a high end, low A pitcher or a mid range AA/AAA pitcher. I would be fine with either. We are rebuilding, and the last thing a rebuilding team should do is take a high doller risk on an inconsistant player rather than upgrading their minor league talent pool.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is where terminology gets in the way (and I apologize if someone else has already made this, but I responded after enough comments with incorrect terminology were confusing folks). "Arbitration" to free agents is gone. Period. There is a qualifying offer now, which is basically accepted or denied, and that offer must be "at least" the amount of the average of the 125 highest paid players. It's a flat offer, not an arbitration-type offer. The player has an actual one-year contract offer in place. If the player accepts, he can play just for that contract, or he can negotiate further for a long-term deal with just that team. If he denies, he's open season for anyone, including his previous team.

 

The big thing everyone needs to be aware of is that any upcoming free agent will get MUCH, MUCH less in trade offers because no longer will a team be able to acquire a player mid-season and get a compensatory pick. The player must be on the team for the entire season in order to get any compensation pick, so a guy like Liriano that will be a free agent this year will get much, much less in trade than a guy like Garza who still has a full year of contract/arbitration left for a team to control and then get a pick.

That all really depends if they are willing to keep that guy around... Let's pretend for a second that April didn't happen. If Liriano was like he is now all season long, I can pretty much guarantee you that whatever team has him at free agency would be more than happy to submit a qualifying offer. You are correct in that this can lower value, simply from the standpoint that teams don't have as much incentive to hold on to the guy if they don't plan on offering 12.4M or whatever it is... In Minnesota's case, they have the resources, so they can bluff... teams like KC and Pittsburg though do not.

[biggentleben]

That all really depends if they are willing to keep that guy around... Let's pretend for a second that April didn't happen. If Liriano was like he is now all season long, I can pretty much guarantee you that whatever team has him at free agency would be more than happy to submit a qualifying offer. You are correct in that this can lower value, simply from the standpoint that teams don't have as much incentive to hold on to the guy if they don't plan on offering 12.4M or whatever it is... In Minnesota's case, they have the resources, so they can bluff... teams like KC and Pittsburg though do not.

 

The value in rentals in the past was that even if they didn't resign with you, you got two picks for them. Now a team trading for a rental gets no picks at all, because they cannot offer a qualifying offer if he's not on the team to start the season. So a rental player under the new CBA is very, very devalued in trades.

[biggentleben]

Add Gerrardo Parra to Bourjos as tradeable CF that are better and or younger than Span. We need to temper our expectations in trading Span. I would be happy with an A ball hard throwing SP prospect as a return since it looks like the Twins are 3 YEARS from being competitive.

Okay, but neither of those guys would fit with the Braves whatsoever.

[shs_59]

My DREAM scenerio:

 

Since we know they're always awfully interested. Seattle Mariners

No, they're not in contention this year.

But that doesn't mean they won't want him, Michael Pineda is a Yank, and hurt.

 

Nick Franklin their AA / AAA SS....... I'd take him and him alone for Liriano and, not Dozier, but maybe Casilla.

 

Do it TR see if they'll bite? Terry Ryan & F.O. Need to explore many many options out there just like this one, they're phone lines should be put to use.

[biggentleben]

My DREAM scenerio:

 

Since we know they're always awfully interested. Seattle Mariners

No, they're not in contention this year.

But that doesn't mean they won't want him, Michael Pineda is a Yank, and hurt.

 

Nick Franklin their AA / AAA SS....... I'd take him and him alone for Liriano and, not Dozier, but maybe Casilla.

 

Do it TR see if they'll bite? Terry Ryan & F.O. Need to explore many many options out there just like this one, they're phone lines should be put to use.

The Mariners have the best group of minor league pitchers outside Arizona. No reason at all to consider Liriano, let alone send over anything of value.