Chris Colabello Watch

[Otto von Ballpark]

I won't regret that post one bit.

 

Until two weeks ago - and sure to be the case again in the near future - the players who would lose playing time to Colabello are Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas.

 

No thanks. I'd rather watch the 24 year olds with upside than a 30-something journeyman.

I'd agree if we were talking about a stopgap FA, but Colabello still offers years of cost control. If he can perform, I don't care about his age, he can be an asset.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd agree if we were talking about a stopgap FA, but Colabello still offers years of cost control. If he can perform, I don't care about his age, he can be an asset.

Again, who do you cut from the 40 man last November so you can keep Colabello, a guy with a huge question mark for a bat and nearly zero defensive ability?

 

And no picking guys like Doug Bernier because Chris and Doug don't compete for roster space. They don't have any positional crossover.

 

Here are your choices:

Oswaldo Arcia

Kennys Vargas

Miguel Sano
Eduardo Escobar
Aaron Hicks
Torii Hunter
Max Kepler 
Shane Robinson
Eddie Rosario

Jordan Schafer

Eduardo Nunez

 

Can't cut Arcia, Vargas, Sano, Escobar, Hicks, Hunter, Kepler, and Rosario for obvious reasons.

 

Can't cut Robinson or Schafer because you need centerfielders.

 

That leaves Nunez. Last November, who here advocated the Twins cut Nunez and keep Colabello?

 

Okay, easier question: Last November, who here didn't advocate the Twins to cut both Nunez and Colabello?

 

Again, this conversation is easy to have in the abstract and with hindsight. Everyone on the board had a chance to voice their opinion about Colabello and I don't remember anyone standing up in his defense, and for good reason. The Twins have a slew of OF on the 40 man roster and Colabello doesn't fit where they're going as an organization.

[USAFChief]

 

Again, who do you cut from the 40 man last November so you can keep Colabello, a guy with a huge question mark for a bat and nearly zero defensive ability?

 

And no picking guys like Doug Bernier because Chris and Doug don't compete for roster space. They don't have any positional crossover.

 

Here are your choices:

Oswaldo Arcia

Kennys Vargas

Miguel Sano
Eduardo Escobar
Aaron Hicks
Torii Hunter
Max Kepler 
Shane Robinson
Eddie Rosario

Jordan Schafer

Eduardo Nunez

 

Can't cut Arcia, Vargas, Sano, Escobar, Hicks, Hunter, Kepler, and Rosario for obvious reasons.

 

Can't cut Robinson or Schafer because you need centerfielders.

 

That leaves Nunez. Last November, who here advocated the Twins cut Nunez and keep Colabello?

 

Okay, easier question: Last November, who here didn't advocate the Twins to cut both Nunez and Colabello?

 

Again, this conversation is easy to have in the abstract and with hindsight. Everyone on the board had a chance to voice their opinion about Colabello and I don't remember anyone standing up in his defense, and for good reason. The Twins have a slew of OF on the 40 man roster and Colabello doesn't fit where they're going as an organization.

I doubt 40 man space had anything to do with it.  They had plenty of 40 man space.  Shane Robinson?  Doug Bernier?

 

I would guess the reason they cut Colabello loose was their estimation he was a flash in the pan, with no positional value, who wouldn't sustain enough offense to overcome that.  I suspect they will ultimately be proven correct.  He didn't make Toronto's roster out of spring, either.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I doubt 40 man space had anything to do with it.  They had plenty of 40 man space.  Shane Robinson?  Doug Bernier?

Bernier, Robinson, and Colabello were not competing for 40 man space. Run down that list I posted... Without Colabello, the Twins already had seven full-time outfielders, two part-time outfielders on the 40 man (that's approaching 25% of their entire 40 man roster). Only two of those guys were players the Twins wanted to roll into centerfield on Opening Day, which means cutting Robinson would have been a giant risk, one the fanbase crucified the Twins for just last season.

 

But I also agree that the Twins felt Colabello had a low chance of success. The decision to cut him was an easy one for multiple reasons.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins also let Parmelee go, who had similar AAA success, spotty MLB results and the same positional (in)flexibility. Parmelee was also younger and a long time organizational guy. I'd guess the team was pretty deadest on signing Hunter and figured they had no room for that type of player.

[drjim]

Still plays OF like we all remember.

[spinowner]

 

I doubt 40 man space had anything to do with it.  They had plenty of 40 man space.  Shane Robinson?  Doug Bernier?

 

I would guess the reason they cut Colabello loose was their estimation he was a flash in the pan, with no positional value, who wouldn't sustain enough offense to overcome that.  I suspect they will ultimately be proven correct.  He didn't make Toronto's roster out of spring, either.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe neither Robinson nor Bernier was on the 40-man last November. I don't think we had signed Robinson yet, and I think his contract was a minor league contract and so he wasn't added to the 40-man until just before the season started. And I'm pretty sure Bernier had to be added when he was called up earlier this month.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What drjim said. Big hitting guys like Colabello giveth and taketh away. He played Torii's warning track fly ball into the game winning double today, so there's that. It was well hit and would have been a very nice catch but nice catches are expected in MLB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It should also be noted that Colabello's BABIP currently sits at an absurd .477. The guy has "human lawn dart" written all over him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brock, I wasn't necessarily saying the Twins made a mistake in not retaining Colabello, or that he's going to keep up this hot streak, or anything of the sort.  I was mainly just responding to this comment of yours:

 

 

No thanks. I'd rather watch the 24 year olds with upside than a 30-something journeyman.

 

To me, that's too simplistic.  If the 24 year old with upside is Chris Parmelee circa 2012, and the 30-something journeyman is Chris Colabello circa 2014, I don't really have a problem with taking a look at the older player before the younger one has his 500 PA or whatever.  Provided we don't release the younger player or anything.  Colabello's chances of creating future surplus value for the Twins were about as good as Parmelee's.

 

Now if the 30-something journeyman is Ryan Doumit circa 2014, that's a different story -- there is little potential for surplus value from a Doumit.  Admittedly those Doumit types are a lot more common than Colabello types.

 

For the 2015 Twins, with Mauer, Vargas, Arcia, Hunter, and Sano -- yeah, I don't really have a problem with letting Cola go.  I would have been upset if the 2013 or 2014 Twins had done that, though -- we had the roster room and we didn't have that many immediate options.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As to the 40-man roster, I believe the Twins kept a ton of pitchers on the roster over the winter, including a bunch of relievers that are rather buried (Oliveros and Pryor were on the roster all winter, plus Achter and Darnell).

 

But I wasn't terribly sold on Cola's hot April 2014 either -- he wasn't pulling the ball much, which seemed like a bad recipe for a guy with his profile.  And glancing at his spray chart, he's doing much the same thing now.  So I am not losing any sleep over him.  But he sure is fun to root for!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Colabello grew up in a baseball family, so not exactly a rags-to-riches story, but give him a ton of credit for believing in himself and not quitting. Imagine how good this guy would have been with the benefit of an MLB-affiliated minor league system to bring him up.

[Minniman]

15 game hitting streak for Colabello.

 

He started the month just 3-13, but he was 2 for 2 today.

 

 

 

 

[LeatherAntenna]

15 game hitting streak for Colabello.

 

He started the month just 3-13, but he was 2 for 2 today.

he had 3 hits yesterday Friday against Houston. Has a 16 game hitting streak going, batting 359' 353 during the streak. Nobody's found the hole in his bat yet. Only hole in his bat was last year after he was injured after April 23 , injured for the rest of the year.

[Minniman]

 

he had 3 hits yesterday Friday against Houston. Has a 16 game hitting streak going, batting 359' 353 during the streak. Nobody's found the hole in his bat yet. Only hole in his bat was last year after he was injured after April 23 , injured for the rest of the year.

 

The game was in progress as I posted. He was 2 for 2 but end up 3 for 4.

 

With his hit on Saturday, he has hit safely in 16 straight games.

 

It should also be noted that Colabello's BABIP currently sits at an absurd .477. The guy has "human lawn dart" written all over him.

 

That should regress, but if Colobello is a line drive hitter, he should have a naturally high BABIP. If Chris hits .310/.370/.450 he is still a better DH/1B than any Twins player so far this season.

[Minniman]

Sunday, June 7th:

 

Bottom of the ninth, ... Colabello hits a walk off single to center, Reyes and Bautista scored.

 

Only 1 for 4, but a clutch hit for the win and extending his hitting streak to 17 games are not bad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That should regress, but if Colobello is a line drive hitter, he should have a naturally high BABIP.

Sure, but a "high" BABIP is in the .340 range, not .470.

 

Unsurprisingly, Colabello has been trending down the past few weeks, even though his BABIP is still on the lucky side (.378 in past two weeks). The guy just doesn't have a lot of talent. That doesn't mean he can't be a useful bench bat or 25th man but he'll never be way above average as a hitter unless he's the luckiest guy in the clubhouse.

[Minniman]

 

 

Sure, but a "high" BABIP is in the .340 range, not .470.
 

 

I agree.

 

As I stated, that should regress, and it has.

 

Unsurprisingly, Colabello has been trending down the past few weeks, even though his BABIP is still on the lucky side (.378 in past two weeks). The guy just doesn't have a lot of talent. That doesn't mean he can't be a useful bench bat or 25th man but he'll never be way above average as a hitter unless he's the luckiest guy in the clubhouse.

 

Colabello started out June by hitting just over the Mendoza line, but that 3-4 game bailed him. Nevertheless, a 17 game hitting streak is a good thing.

 

Two other players that have lived off high BABIP their whole careers: Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer. I guess those guys were just lucky.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Two other players that have lived off high BABIP their whole careers: Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer. I guess those guys were just lucky.

No, some players maintain high BABIP. Those players, like the two you mentioned, are generally talented than Mr. Colabello (in the case of those two, incredibly more talented).

 

For example, Joe Mauer's career BABIP is .347. Hunter's is actually a pretty pedestrian .310.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Unsurprisingly, Colabello has been trending down the past few weeks, even though his BABIP is still on the lucky side (.378 in past two weeks). The guy just doesn't have a lot of talent. That doesn't mean he can't be a useful bench bat or 25th man but he'll never be way above average as a hitter unless he's the luckiest guy in the clubhouse.

You don't have to be "way above average as a hitter" to be more than a useful bench bat or 25th man.  Vargas won his starting DH gig on the strength of his 114 wRC+ in 2014.  Arcia probably could have claimed that spot this past month if he had been ready and able to replicate his 109 wRC+ mark from last year.  I don't think of those marks as "way above average."

Offering more defense/utility than that group, there's Kubel with a career 105 wRC+ mark, Cuddyer at 113, Garret Jones at 107...

 

If Cola can sustain average or above numbers, he should be able to keep a starting 1B/DH gig somewhere in MLB.

[big dog]

Chris' statistics as of 6/12/2015, per mlb.com

 

                 AB/Avg/OBP/SLG

Last 30 games: 117 / .316 / .365 / .453

Last 15 games:   63 / .302 / .323 / .413

Last  7 games:    30 / .267 / .290 / .333

 

I wish him the best and will be happy if he can get on a hot streak.

[LeatherAntenna]

2-4 today so this 'lucky' hitter with 'no talent' is back at 300 for the last 7 games, at 300 last 15 games 318 the last 30 games, BABIP at 436', pretty consistent for a 'lucky' hitter with 'no talent' that has played a quarter of a season.

[LeatherAntenna]

This 'lucky' hitter with 'no talent' despite playing in 21 less games than Joe Mauer has more multi hit games than Mauer.

[LeatherAntenna]

Sunday was another multi hit game for Colabello.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think a Chris Colabello watch would be cool. Much like a Mickey Mouse watch. The hand holding the bat could be minutes. Off hand could be hours. When people saw me they would say " cool watch, but who is that swarthy guy?" And I would say " Chris Colabello" and they would say " who?" And "why do you have his watch? What is the point of a watch, no matter how cool it is, when you carry a cell phone?" And I'd say "it's just like an apple watch, the point is to be cool, logic doesn't matter"

[LeatherAntenna]

So I have two first basemen on my roster. A three time batting champ batting 260 who only hits singles and is paid 23 million a year and a guy from almost nowhere that is batting 340 and hits more than singles is paid 500 thou with 13 multi hit games. Gee I guess logic tells me to play the guy batting 260 because clearly his salary and his history must mean that he is better. Right? His watch works, or did work in the past. Even though he is less productive I will bench the 340 hitter, because he doesn't have the history and there isn't any logic in his performance except that he is doing it. Cool is using a watch that respects current performance, not choosing to saying I won't use that watch because I don't know it as well and it may not work tomorrow. Only a fool says the new watch doesn't have the history so I can't possibly trust it to give me the right time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

2-4 today so this 'lucky' hitter with 'no talent' is back at 300 for the last 7 games, at 300 last 15 games 318 the last 30 games, BABIP at 436', pretty consistent for a 'lucky' hitter with 'no talent' that has played a quarter of a season.

Keep posting, please. I want to see you track Colabello through July and August. Please be as diligent about it through the dog days as you are right now.

 

Here, I'll help: in the last 14 days, Colabello has a .697 OPS with zero walks and ten strikeouts. In his past 28 days, he has walked just three times while striking out 21 times. Without that absurd BABIP (still slightly over .400 for the past month), he's a very different player. He's not walking and he hit just three home runs in the past month (not bad but not amazing) so it's not as if that OPS is fueled by things a player can control over the long run.

 

One cannot count on a .400 BABIP for any player, period. Let's all take a moment to remember Danny Santana's 2014 and then compare it to his 2015 when the luck well ran dry. To give Colabello some context, the highest modern career BABIP (min 3000 PAs) is Joey Votto at .362. The top three modern players read like a HoF list:

 

Votto, Carew, Jeter. They have career BABIPs in the .354-.362 range.

 

For the record, I like Chris Colabello and wish him only the best. He sounds like a great guy. I'm simply realistic about his current performance and what can be expected of a guy his age. Hell, I hope I'm wrong about him... But I'm probably not. This isn't my first rodeo and blips on the radar like Chris Colabello aren't terribly uncommon in the history of baseball.

 

Also, nowhere did I say Colabello has "no talent" so you can go ahead and drop the quotation marks, Hyperbole & a Half.

[LeatherAntenna]

Of course his BABIP was never going to stay at 577', or 477 or 377', but my point on the BABIP was that number isn't why he was hitting plus 400 but plus 400 was why the BABIP was up. I guess a chicken of egg thing. I just still maintain that while agreed he still levels off, it will not be a surprise he bats well over 300 this year and may be in contention for batting title-at least it won't be a surprise if he is. He should reach the point as a qualified hitter in about 55 games. His spray chart was displayed last night on the Toronto broadcast and fairly impressive. 22 hits to center, 14 hits to left and 16 hits to right. Don't see balance like that real often. I stand corrected, you didn't say ' no talent', but 'not a lot of talent' and I took it the same way as he was still batting 380 or more when you wrote that.

[twinsnorth49]

 

So I have two first basemen on my roster. A three time batting champ batting 260 who only hits singles and is paid 23 million a year and a guy from almost nowhere that is batting 340 and hits more than singles is paid 500 thou with 13 multi hit games. Gee I guess logic tells me to play the guy batting 260 because clearly his salary and his history must mean that he is better. Right? His watch works, or did work in the past. Even though he is less productive I will bench the 340 hitter, because he doesn't have the history and there isn't any logic in his performance except that he is doing it. Cool is using a watch that respects current performance, not choosing to saying I won't use that watch because I don't know it as well and it may not work tomorrow. Only a fool says the new watch doesn't have the history so I can't possibly trust it to give me the right time.

I think your watch only tells time in hindsight.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think your watch only tells time in hindsight.

and in very short increments