International signing period thread

[Mike Sixel]

ha, we have a draft thread, how about starting an International signing day thread?

 

Ok, really, I couldn't figure out where to link this awesome article:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-1/

 

[maxisagod]

Part Two from Fangraphs: 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-2/

 

Bottom line from Kiley McDaniel: 

 

• He doesn't know of any other July 2nd prospects connected to Twins besides Wander Javier so far. 
• Cubs are going way over their cap again.
• Dodgers are wild cards who also could blow by the cap on young Cubans and high priced players. 

[Mike Sixel]

I will be bummed if they sign one guy, and stay under the limit.

 

I vastly prefer the Cubs approach, but I've preferred almost everything about their approach the last three years....

[cmb0252]

Mlb pipeline has Javier ranked #4

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=int

[gunnarthor]

 

Mlb pipeline has Javier ranked #4

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=int

Wow, that's a heck of a write up on the kid.  

[maxisagod]

 

Mlb pipeline has Javier ranked #4

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=int

 

Good list. This is interesting... outfielder Simon Muzziotti who is Ranked 24, has interest from several teams including the Twins, the Red Sox are favored to sign him, BUT the Red Sox have interest in signing another top 30 player and are on spending limits after going over their slot, so they still might be out bid.  

[maxisagod]

This was posted before in another thread 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/02/27/twinsights-twins-nearly-4-million-international-bonus-pool/

 

Last February , before the Wander Javier 4 million dollar story broke, Mike Berandino had 3 names the Twins were interested in:  Javier, OF Juan Soto, and 3B Christopher Martinez. I've been keeping my eyes open for those other names neither have been mentioned by Ben Badler or Kiley McDaniel. Though I miss things because I don't have a BA subscription. 

 

On the MLB Pipeline list, Soto is listed as #19 and connected to the Nationals. Martinez is listed at 26th and connected to the Cubs.

 

Mixed feelings. On one hand the Twins are interested in more than one guy on the top 30, on the other they may have already been out bid. I'll be looking out to see if Badler or McDaniel confirm those connected teams.  

[nytwinsfan]

Yeah, I think McDaniel confirmed that Soto is connected to the Nationals and Martinez to the Cubs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-1/

 

I don't think the Twins are expecting to go over this year, and I'm fine with that. The year to go over is next year, 2016, anyway, since the quality is supposed to be higher than this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That write up on Javier makes me think of A-Rod... Granted, just a writeup, but SS with power and a good hit tool...

[Monkeypaws]

I like 6' - seems like the ideal size for a premium SS on both sides of the ball.

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah, I think McDaniel confirmed that Soto is connected to the Nationals and Martinez to the Cubs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-1/

 

I don't think the Twins are expecting to go over this year, and I'm fine with that. The year to go over is next year, 2016, anyway, since the quality is supposed to be higher than this year.

I don't disagree with you because you're probably right, but don't you think our favorite team will purchase some additional space, so we can sign the usual 20 or so? Several of the heavy hitters are already handicapped.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I don't disagree with you because you're probably right, but don't you think our favorite team will purchase some additional space, so we can sign the usual 20 or so? Several of the heavy hitters are already handicapped.

Yeah, I think they will purchase some extra space, but doubtful it would be enough to sign any of the top 20 beyond Javier, and probably will be for signing a lot of smaller $ guys.

[Twins Twerp]

 

Yeah, I think they will purchase some extra space, but doubtful it would be enough to sign any of the top 20 beyond Javier, and probably will be for signing a lot of smaller $ guys.

Which would be ok.  How many top 20 guys make it?  Look at our top prospects and major league guys right now.  Santana was not a top dollar guy.  Polanco, if I remember correctly, was  thought to be a stud defensive SS but still signed for around 600k.  Pinto was not a 7 figure guy.  The only 7 figure guy we have who should make the big leagues is Sano, and even he has his doubters.  Kepler and the young Ozzie were fairly high but still not 7 fig.  

 

I would much rather have the Twins philosophy of your one big guy, followed by lots of smaller signings spread throughout the world.  I don't know how good it is to blow through your budget unless you go the route of the Yankees and just sign everybody who is asking for 7 figures.  The Dodgers will also do that this year, but it is an expensive way to do things and only a few teams have that capability.  

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly, though, teams wouldn't offer that much money to certain players if they didn't think it was MUCH more likely those players will be MLB players, right?

 

If they get close to their limit with one guy, that means if they want to sign 4-6 more, they'll be signing guys that are pretty random, pretty much the minimum guys, won't it? I'd rather they go all in this year or next year, than not, but I understand where others disagree.

[2wins87]

 

Clearly, though, teams wouldn't offer that much money to certain players if they didn't think it was MUCH more likely those players will be MLB players, right?

 

If they get close to their limit with one guy, that means if they want to sign 4-6 more, they'll be signing guys that are pretty random, pretty much the minimum guys, won't it? I'd rather they go all in this year or next year, than not, but I understand where others disagree.

 

They can acquire up to 50% of their original pool through trades, so they could expand their pool to nearly $6 million.  The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees are all unable to spend more than $300k on any player, so there are a number of possible trade partners.

 

I would guess that they will probably trade for space and sign a few more guys for 6 figures while still maintaining flexibility for next year.  Not top prospects necessarily but not exactly random, minimum guys either.

[maxisagod]

Baseball America reports Twins signed OF/SS Aaron Whitefield out of Queensland Australia. Old teammate of Jack Barrie on the Bandits, Whitefield has a good glove. What stats are out there don't show much power, the videos of BP don't show a lot of bat speed, but I'm guessing he's a decent hitter for average. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

That's nice, they can use that signing out of the 2014 bonus pool. I'm guessing it wasn't for a lot of cash and this kid knew he wasn't getting any more later.

[Hrbowski]

mlb.com updated their top 30 prospect list, and Eddy Julio Martinez is #1, with Yadier Alvarez (Dodgers) #2, and Lucius Fox #3. The Twins have watched Martinez closely, and could be in on Fox, too. Since we are over going the pool, we should be ready to spend some big money on them. They would likely both be top 20 prospects in MLB, but the Dodgers will likely outbid us. 

[Monkeypaws]

Adding Javier plus the #6 this year just keeps the system truckin'.

 

The Twins haven't been aggressive in this the International market, but they have been competent.

[drjim]

 

Adding Javier plus the #6 this year just keeps the system truckin'.

 

The Twins haven't been aggressive in this the International market, but they have been competent.

 

I think international scouting is by far the strongest competency of the organization relative to the rest of the industry.

[drjim]

I have one crazy hope for the Twins and international signing.

 

It is widely thought that there are two more years under the current system before an international draft is instituted (for better or worse). I doubt the Twins will go past their cap this year once the dust settles, but there could be an opportunity. A handful of the big spending orgs are going to blow their cap and combined with the teams that did so last year there will be an opportunity for the 16-17 signing period. Most of the big spenders will be ineligible to sign players creating the opportunity to go big one last time.

 

Of course the odds of this lean towards highly unlikely, but that crop is considered much stronger than this year including a generational talent from Venezuela. Maybe they'll stun us all by going big for one player this year and saving it for the big splash next year.

[maxisagod]

Here is a tweet from Doggie Wolfson today:

 

"#MNTwins VP Mike Radcliff on the 2015 int'l FA class: "One of the best we've ever seen." Value that they'll spend $4M on one player alone." 

[Sam Morley]

 

I will be bummed if they sign one guy, and stay under the limit.

 

I vastly prefer the Cubs approach, but I've preferred almost everything about their approach the last three years....

What about their approach over the last hundred years?

 

[nytwinsfan]

Very interesting tweet from Darren Wolfson:

 

 

I read that as Radcliffe suggesting the Twins are seeking (through trade) additional $ above their current approximate $4 million cap, which I think is hard capped at around $6 million. This makes sense, given that Javier Wander is expected to be a $4 million signing, and as many others have noted, the Twins are always interested in signing some lower profile international guys. If you look at the replies to the tweet, Wolfson also says the Twins have other deals currently in place, but that they won't state who those players are.

 

 

[jokin]

What about their approach over the last hundred years?

Theo Epstein is in charge now, anything before him is pretty irrelevant by comparison, even stated in jest.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Very interesting tweet from Darren Wolfson:

 

 

I read that as Radcliffe suggesting the Twins are seeking (through trade) additional $ above their current approximate $4 million cap, which I think is hard capped at around $6 million. This makes sense, given that Javier Wander is expected to be a $4 million signing, and as many others have noted, the Twins are always interested in signing some lower profile international guys. If you look at the replies to the tweet, Wolfson also says the Twins have other deals currently in place, but that they won't state who those players are.

 

Pretty sure the hard cap is lower than 6M, isn't it?  I know they can go over it without penalty, but that seems high.  On the flip side, if as they suspect there's going to be an international draft in two years, now would be the year to just blow it up and do a Cubs/RedSox. 

 

With that said, if this tail spin continues, I could see them shopping Milone and Pelfrey (though the way Pelf is pitching, he might bring back a prospect) for some extra dollars.  I really wonder what a near ML ready back of the rotation arm like Pat Dean would get.   There's no room for the guy with what's coming up and what's already there.   

[nytwinsfan]

 

Pretty sure the hard cap is lower than 6M, isn't it?  I know they can go over it without penalty, but that seems high.  On the flip side, if as they suspect there's going to be an international draft in two years, now would be the year to just blow it up and do a Cubs/RedSox. 

 

With that said, if this tail spin continues, I could see them shopping Milone and Pelfrey (though the way Pelf is pitching, he might bring back a prospect) for some extra dollars.  I really wonder what a near ML ready back of the rotation arm like Pat Dean would get.   There's no room for the guy with what's coming up and what's already there.   

By hard cap I meant the amount they can't go over (after trades) without the penalty of not being able to sign guys the following year for more than a couple thousand. I guess there is no truly hard cap, as the Red Sox demonstrated this year, but they won't be a big player in the international market until 2017 again.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What about their approach over the last hundred years?

 

how is that relevant at all?

[Mike Sixel]

Kiley says, once again, the Twins will not be going over their allotment........

[diehardtwinsfan]

This will be interesting given they have a rumored deal with Wander Javier for their allotment and have several other deals supposedly in place.  Really curious how it plays out.