Hicks cut

[nicksaviking]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/209752351.html

Sounds like Terry Ryan, who actually watched Gibson pitch and develop pretty much called his early struggles.

 

Predicting a rookie pitcher will struggle isn't exactly a genius diagnosis.

 

Believing there is actually a method for preventing a rookie from struggling is the kind of blind optimism that will promise a rebuild will drag on as long as possible.

 

They have no problem letting the team stink while the young bats struggle, which is good. They need to allow the same opportunities for the pitchers. They need to take a deep breath and accept reality, that this team isn't going anywhere until the young arms develop, and the young arms will have to do some on the job learning at the MLB level. It will take time, it could have taken less.

[Jham]

 

Predicting a rookie pitcher will struggle isn't exactly a genius diagnosis.

Believing there is actually a method for preventing a rookie from struggling is the kind of blind optimism that will promise a rebuild will drag on as long as possible.

They have no problem letting the team stink while the young bats struggle, which is good. They need to allow the same opportunities for the pitchers. They need to take a deep breath and accept reality, that this team isn't going anywhere until the young arms develop, and the young arms will have to do some on the job learning at the MLB level. It will take time, it could have taken less.

 

That's certainly one view, and I'm sure there is some truth to it for some pitchers.  Some pitchers need to get thrown to the flames for them to figure out what works and doesn't against big league guys, get jitters out, or otherwise develop.  For each player there will be a "too soon" line.  In many cases, it probably doesn't even matter, either they're good enough or not.  

 

I just don't think the difference in having rookies break with the team vs. come up in May or June is significant in player development or even team performance.  

 

Maybe there was a Rick Anderson effect, but it seems like we may have given up on guys like Breslow, Neshek, Worley, Liriano too soon and not received good or any value for those guys because they weren't seen as part of the future.  I think this has hurt us way more than failing to get guys to the majors sooner.  I don't think I've ever thought, "If ONLY we'd have gotten so and so up sooner, we could have traded Player X, or we would have won so many more games."  Last time I thought that was Liriano as a rookie, and Johan not starting in the playoffs.

 

In my opinion, Gibson and May could have probably used more seasoning prior to their call ups, but I don't blame the FO for bringing them up and getting them some action during lost seasons or in Gibson's case, to try to energize the team and fan base.  Similarly, I can't say that those who think the struggles will help our young guys are categorically wrong.  But if you use the excuse that it's better to let guys struggle in the majors, then calling up a young player will ALWAYS be the right move whether they are met with success or failure. 

 

[jimmer]

 

Developing prospects isn't a science.  Not every move is going to pay off, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try.  If Meyer is never an ace, he was at least, at one time, a potential ace.  Aces are pretty rare, getting even a potential ace for a player like Span was a pretty decent deal.  

 

I suspect both Meyer and May will be up soon enough.  I want to see them play and play well, but don't blame Terry Ryan for the fact that Meyer still doesn't have a repeatable delivery and May choked in his big audition.  Meyer and May just have to pitch better. They were given their chances, even last year.  That's on them.

Wait a minute.  You want to give credit to Ryan for making the trades because they looked good at the time but you then want to absolve him if the two guys don't work out?  How does THAT work?  Trying to say that when scouting these two guys there was no possibility to foresee the control problems they have, especially Meyer?  There are scouts that have been saying reliever for Meyer for quite some time.  

[jimmer]

 

I don't think either of those points are relevant for May or for Hicks.  I think Meyer was a mess.  I think thinking too much can be a problem, especially for a young player in the bigs on Opening Day.  But I don't think I know everything.  Not everyone suffers from the same insecurity.

Not sure what insecurity you may be referring to.

 

What I do know is you took a sarcastic swipe at a poster saying something that is almost assuredly not true.  Unless they are hurt, it's unlikely a guy is gonna turn the switch on and be any more ready for the majors in June than they are right now. And this season, as last year, is supposed to be about seeing what we have.  We're not going to be competitive.  Now is the time to see what we got. Holding back a pair of 25 year olds for a couple months isn't going to help their development or fix their issues. 

 

But whatever.

[Kwak]

 

Developing prospects isn't a science.  Not every move is going to pay off, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try.  If Meyer is never an ace, he was at least, at one time, a potential ace.  Aces are pretty rare, getting even a potential ace for a player like Span was a pretty decent deal.  

 

I suspect both Meyer and May will be up soon enough.  I want to see them play and play well, but don't blame Terry Ryan for the fact that Meyer still doesn't have a repeatable delivery and May choked in his big audition.  Meyer and May just have to pitch better. They were given their chances, even last year.  That's on them.

"...on them." Yes, but there is more. If these two were the only "prospects" to fail--but we haven't seen a Twins "prospect" truly blossom into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for quite some time. It appears that the Twins' minor league development system has to be be big part of the problem. There is no need to shout about "..best minor league system.." to me, I've many posts on just that subject. But, I must point out that those "top prospects" are still minor leaguers--the verdict on them isn't in.

[jay]

Wait a minute. You want to give credit to Ryan for making the trades because they looked good at the time but you then want to absolve him if the two guys don't work out? How does THAT work?

Even if they were good moves at the time, was there ever a guarantee they were going to work out? Do we even know they aren't going to work out? No...

 

These guys were some big bets and "absolve" is a bit strong (TR would own some blame if they actually do flop), but it's about more than these two guys.

[mudcat14]

We already know that opening the season as the MLB CF was too much for Hicks to handle.  It tanked two full seasons for him.  Rather than make the same mistake with him a third time, or with Rosario or Buxton, TR & Mollie are more than willing to sacrifice Schaeffer & Robinson.  Unless by some miracle either of them stakes claim to the gig, count on whoever of the minor leaguers has the hottest stick to take over by June.    

[Jham]

 

Wait a minute.  You want to give credit to Ryan for making the trades because they looked good at the time but you then want to absolve him if the two guys don't work out?  How does THAT work?  Trying to say that when scouting these two guys there was no possibility to foresee the control problems they have, especially Meyer?  There are scouts that have been saying reliever for Meyer for quite some time.  

 

I'm not crediting Ryan with a good or bad trade.  I'm crediting him for trying.  For many many seasons we've been drafting and acquiring low risk low reward guys and found them riskier than anticipated with predictably poor results.  I'll give the organization credit for switching it up and going after power arms.  You can blame Ryan for the fact that May and Meyer are in the organization, but not for their individual failures to leap the near ground level hurtles required to make the team.

 

[jimmer]

 

Even if they were good moves at the time, was there ever a guarantee they were going to work out? Do we even know they aren't going to work out? No...

These guys were some big bets and "absolve" is a bit strong (TR would own some blame if they actually do flop), but it's about more than these two guys.

here is what was written: 'I want to see them play and play well, but don't blame Terry Ryan for the fact that Meyer still doesn't have a repeatable delivery and May choked in his big audition.'

 

Seems to me this is absolving Ryan of fault .  As if the mechanical issues couldn't be foreseen before traded for nor fixed by the developers that Ryan employs in the minors.  As far as May performance, he choked for sure, but he did it in a season that was a lost one for us from the start like this one likely will be.  And, let's face it, the majors is littered with pitchers who did horrible to start and ended up with good-great careers when their team stuck with them.

[jimmer]

 

I'm not crediting Ryan with a good or bad trade.  I'm crediting him for trying.  For many many seasons we've been drafting and acquiring low risk low reward guys and found them riskier than anticipated with predictably poor results.  I'll give the organization credit for switching it up and going after power arms.  You can blame Ryan for the fact that May and Meyer are in the organization, but not for their individual failures to leap the near ground level hurtles required to make the team.

That's fair.  If that's what you meant, I concur whole-heartedly. Though I don;t think either had a chance to make the rotation during the 'competition'.

 

BTW, do you remeber the press conference Ryan had when talking about the team making a real effort to convert to power type arms.  His face when saying it made it seem like he was eating a lemon. :-)

[Twodogs]

When was the last time in the last 10 or 15 years or so that the Twins had a 5th starter coming in with a lifetime winning record of 32 - 23 and a 3.98 lifetime ERA?  Granted he is not flashy and doesn't have much ability to cause swings and misses but he has been pretty reliable over the last 3-4 years.  If he can just replicate that and he is the Twins 5th starter then I think this season will be a little better than the last 3 or 4 years.  Sure May or Meyer would be more sexy out there with K ability but there are a lot of guys around the bigs with K ability that get rocked all of the time.  So I'm hoping that Milone does his thing that he has done for the last 3 or 4 years.

[jimmer]

 

When was the last time in the last 10 or 15 years or so that the Twins had a 5th starter coming in with a lifetime winning record of 32 - 23 and a 3.98 lifetime ERA?  Granted he is not flashy and doesn't have much ability to cause swings and misses but he has been pretty reliable over the last 3-4 years.  If he can just replicate that and he is the Twins 5th starter then I think this season will be a little better than the last 3 or 4 years. 

Well, first we have to assume wins and losses and ERA are all about a pitcher's performance.  He played on some very good teams which help with the wins/losses and on a team with good defenses (and a good pitcher's park) which help with the ERA.

 

We have to remember that Beane felt so unimpressed by him that he sent him to the minors and then accepted Sam Fuld for him.  The Nats also traded him.  Three teams before even making arbitration. If his ERA and win/losses was indicative of his talent, these things likely don't happen.

 

Seems the teams understand that the record and ERA might be a bad way to judge his ability.

[Twodogs]

 

Well, first we have to assume wins and losses and ERA are all about a pitcher's performance.  He played on some very good teams which help with the wins/losses and on a team with good defenses (and a good pitcher's park) which help with the ERA.

 

We have to remember that Beane felt so unimpressed by him that he sent him to the minors and then accepted Sam Fuld for him.  The Nats also traded him.  Three teams before even making arbitration. If his ERA and win/losses was indicative of his talent, these things likely don't happen.

 

Seems the teams understand that the record and ERA might be a bad way to judge his ability.

And who else did Beane get rid of last year?

[Twodogs]

 

 

And who else did Beane get rid of last year?

Take a look at Oakland over the last decade, they don't really hold on to anyone.

[Kwak]

 

here is what was written: 'I want to see them play and play well, but don't blame Terry Ryan for the fact that Meyer still doesn't have a repeatable delivery and May choked in his big audition.'

 

Seems to me this is absolving Ryan of fault .  As if the mechanical issues couldn't be foreseen before traded for nor fixed by the developers that Ryan employs in the minors.  As far as May performance, he choked for sure, but he did it in a season that was a lost one for us from the start like this one likely will be.  And, let's face it, the majors is littered with pitchers who did horrible to start and ended up with good-great careers when their team stuck with them.

 I bolded a word on your statement (rather than the entire passage Mudcat). This also applies to position players/hitters.

[jimmer]

 

And who else did Beane get rid of last year?

Lots of people and for lots of reasons.  But given his long track record of evaluating talent and understanding value, do you want to bet against him by saying Milone was worth more than Fuld?  I don't. Beane has a great rep for a reason.

[jimmer]

 

Take a look at Oakland over the last decade, they don't really hold on to anyone.

yes, he has a habit of trading away guys at their highest value and they keep winning.

[jimmer]

 

 I bolded a word on your statement (rather than the entire passage Mudcat). This also applies to position players/hitters.

Mudcat?  I agree with what you're saying though.

[Twodogs]

 

yes, he has a habit of trading away guys at their highest value and they keep winning.

Kinda like the twins did just before the last 4 years or so?

[Twodogs]

 

yes, he has a habit of trading away guys at their highest value and they keep winning.

I know Beane has done well, but he isn't even the best GM in a 30 mile radius of where he works.

[jimmer]

 

Kinda like the twins did just before the last 4 years or so?

Ortiz wasn't traded and was better after he left. Hunter left as a FA, Santana was traded when he made it known he wasn't going to sign (so that took away some peak value).  Gomez was traded way lower than his peak value. I'd need some examples.  We talking about AJ? Cause I'll give you AJ.  Of course, having a Mauer ready made that a pretty easy decision.

 

In any event, whether that's true or not doesn't change the Milone situation now.  He's not what his ERA and win/loss record says he is.

[jimmer]

 

I know Beane has done well, but he isn't even the best GM in a 30 mile radius of where he works.

well that is certainly debatable.  I'd take Beane myself.  They hardly have the financial constraints.

[ashbury]

 

I am pretty surprised by the Hicks thing.

Did you see the job Hicks did in CF yesterday? I was in support of him getting his chance at Target Field, but not after that.

 

I can only imagine Trevor May's exasperation at learning that he'll have to pitch with Hicks back there defending for him, only at Rochester.

[Twodogs]

 

Ortiz wasn't traded and was better after he left. Hunter left as a FA, Santana was traded when he made it known he wasn't going to sign (so that took away some peak value).  Gomez was traded way lower than his peak value. I'd need some examples.  We talking about AJ? Cause I'll give you AJ.  Of course, having a Mauer ready made that a pretty easy decision.

 

In any event, whether that's true or not doesn't change the Milone situation now.  He's not what his ERA and win/loss record says he is.

No I mean kinda like the Twins were successful before the last 4 years or so.

[jimmer]

 

No I mean kinda like the Twins were successful before the last 4 years or so.

ah, you can see where I got confused since we were talking about Beane's trades and the part you quoted was about trading away guys at peak value and still winning.  

 

But yeah, the Twins had a nice run of competitiveness going for around a decade, but now it;s been 4 years, very likely a bad 5th coming up and likely a 6th in 2016.

[h2oface]

I don't care if you are a scout or a GM, you can't know or tell how someone will perform until they are given the opportunity. You can guess, but you don't know. If you want to pitch that scouts and GMs do this for a living and know better than me or you, that they are professionals and make a living at it and that proves it.....then look at the results. The only differences this team has from last year's is Hunter in right and Ervin Santana, another innings eating .500 pitcher with a 4-5 ERA in the rotation. The bullpen is basically a wash with Stauffer and maybe Boyer replacing Burton and Swarzak, and it was terrible last year. Hunter will now be mentoring who? And for that we make an outfield defense more horrible for the pitch to contact staff and don't give pitchers that can miss bats an opportunity. No move was made for a center fielder. This is a team in trouble, and Ryan has orchestrated it for the 5th year running. I am very depressed about the team that I loved before Terry Ryan was even a part of it. Patience is so overrated. 

[gunnarthor]

 

ah, you can see where I got confused since we were talking about Beane's trades and the part you quoted was about trading away guys at peak value and still winning.  

 

But yeah, the Twins had a nice run of competitiveness going for around a decade, but now it;s been 4 years, very likely a bad 5th coming up and likely a 6th in 2016.

Since 2001, both teams have had winning records 9x, Twins have made the playoffs 6x, Oakland 7x (although one was a wildcard game), the only time either team advanced in the playoffs was when they beat the other team.  The difference between the teams has been pretty slim for 15 years now.  It's a bit disingenuous to suggest that Beane is doing well while suggesting Ryan isn't. 

[jimmer]

 

Since 2001, both teams have had winning records 9x, Twins have made the playoffs 6x, Oakland 7x (although one was a wildcard game), the only time either team advanced in the playoffs was when they beat the other team.  The difference between the teams has been pretty slim for 15 years now.  It's a bit disingenuous to suggest that Beane is doing well while suggesting Ryan isn't. 

Have I been saying Ryan hasn't been a good GM?  I point out things he's done well and things he hasn't, but I'm not clamoring for his removal or saying he stinks.  Are you confusing me with some other poster, perhaps?

 

I do think Beane is better though.

[USAFChief]

Did you see the job Hicks did in CF yesterday? I was in support of him getting his chance at Target Field, but not after that.

 

I can only imagine Trevor May's exasperation at learning that he'll have to pitch with Hicks back there defending for him, only at Rochester.

Nope, didnt see the game. Can I assume he didnt distinguish himself?

[TheLeviathan]

Nope, didnt see the game. Can I assume he didnt distinguish himself?

Let's just say that if I didn't know better I'd think he was trying to give himself a concussion.