Brady Aiken gets TJ surgery

[gunnarthor]

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/brady-aiken-a-fresh-start/

 

Not sure if he'll declare for the draft or not.  Hoffman and Giolito both got drafted a few months after TJ surgery so I would think Aiken will.  If not, he'll need to rehab for over a year before we see his stuff again.  So he might not be ready for the 2016 draft.  So I would expect he goes in this draft.

 

Sadly, Astros fans are not being the most supportive.  It'll be interesting to see how the Twins look at this.  I wouldn't blame them if they took him and it didn't work out. His ceiling is pretty exciting and having the potential for a true ace (albeit injured) at #6 is a pretty nice opportunity.

[jimmer]

are you suggesting we take him at #6 if available?

[gunnarthor]

 

are you suggesting we take him at #6 if available?

Yep.

 

Here's Callis write up,he still thinks he goes high.

 

"Ranked No. 3 on MLBPipeline.com's initial 2015 Draft Top 50 in December, Aiken still could go very early in the 2015 Draft. Jeff Hoffman had Tommy John surgery last May and signed for $3,080,000 as the No. 9 overall choice by the Blue Jays in June. The Nationals took Erick Fedde at No. 18 and paid him $2,511,100 despite knowing that his elbow needed to be reconstructed.

 

In 2012, Washington spent the No. 16 selection and $2,925,000 on Lucas Giolito, who had been sidelined for three months after spraining his elbow that March. He made one Minor League appearance before requiring Tommy John surgery, and since has recovered and blossomed into the best pitching prospect in baseball.

 

The day before news of Aiken's surgery broke, an American League scouting executive suggested that elbow reconstruction wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen to him.

"Why not just go ahead and get the Tommy John surgery if that's what you need?" the executive said. "After Hoffman and Giolito and Fedde, you'll get paid. It's better than the uncertainty. The whole thing has been so cloak and dagger that I think it works against him.""

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So.... Are the Astros saying "I told you so" to anyone who will listen?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/brady-aiken-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery.html

 

[markos]

Two thoughts:

 

1) I still can't believe that this whole thing blew up over $1.5M. In baseball terms that is basically nothing. Teams certainly seem fine drafting TJ pitchers and giving them $3M. And I know these are not perfect comparisons, but teams are certainly willing to give lots of money to free agents that are in the middle of the TJ recovery process. For example, Kris Medlen just got $8.5M over two years in the hopes that he can recover from his second TJ surgery. The Red Sox just payed $60M+ for Moancada, who is basically the equivalent of a top HS draft prospect. If Aiken was similar free agent, I have to think that some team would sign him for $6.5M right now. Heck, the Dodgers just signed Hector Olivera for $60M+ and he has a damaged UCL (not a pitcher, but still...). Anyway, based on all that I suspect that Aiken's elbow issues are quite serious, TJ surgery may not fix it completely, and that Houston thinks he is a lost cause. Their actions basically said, "We will offer you the absolute minimum that lets us keep the pick for next year if you don't accept, but we won't offer you a penny more because we think that literally anyone we pick next year will turn out better than you. In fact, we are so confident in this that we are willing to forfeit our agreement with Nix. Please don't accept our offer."

 

2) I don't think I'm okay with drafting Aiken at #6. At this point it certainly seems like he would have the highest upside of anyone available. But based on my conspiracy theories above, I'm not sure he will be completely healthy even after TJ. And I don't have enough faith in the Twins FO and medical staff to properly handle a complicated medical and rehab process.

[tobi0040]

 

So.... Are the Astros saying "I told you so" to anyone who will listen?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/brady-aiken-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery.html

 

This means he will likely be available for the Twins.  Frankly, I would take him at 6th overall if I was the Twins.

 

Lucas Giolito was a likely top 3 pick and needed TJ.  The Nats took him 16th. He is now the 6th best prospect in the game.   Last year, after TJ and at 19 years old he had a 2.20 ERA and 110 K's in 98 IP at high A.

 

His report from last year.   Polished 6'4 lefty. Good control. Mid 90's fastball and a really good breaking ball. Four good pitches overall.  They don't grow on trees.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd not cross him off the list over this, but I can't say much about any of the options.........

 

I feel really bad for him, have since last summer.

[zenser]

I think he is worth the risk if he is there at 6. From my understanding, he has already had the surgery. If you take him, he is going to be missing out on what up to 20-30 innings in rookie ball? He might be close to ready by the time extended spring training gets going next year. I think I would roll the dice on him if he is available.

[Mike Sixel]

Lucas Gioloto (sp?), one of the top prospects in baseball says "hello"......

[gunnarthor]

 

Two thoughts:

 

1) I still can't believe that this whole thing blew up over $1.5M. In baseball terms that is basically nothing. Teams certainly seem fine drafting TJ pitchers and giving them $3M. And I know these are not perfect comparisons, but teams are certainly willing to give lots of money to free agents that are in the middle of the TJ recovery process. For example, Kris Medlen just got $8.5M over two years in the hopes that he can recover from his second TJ surgery. The Red Sox just payed $60M+ for Moancada, who is basically the equivalent of a top HS draft prospect. If Aiken was similar free agent, I have to think that some team would sign him for $6.5M right now. Heck, the Dodgers just signed Hector Olivera for $60M+ and he has a damaged UCL (not a pitcher, but still...). Anyway, based on all that I suspect that Aiken's elbow issues are quite serious, TJ surgery may not fix it completely, and that Houston thinks he is a lost cause. Their actions basically said, "We will offer you the absolute minimum that lets us keep the pick for next year if you don't accept, but we won't offer you a penny more because we think that literally anyone we pick next year will turn out better than you. In fact, we are so confident in this that we are willing to forfeit our agreement with Nix. Please don't accept our offer."

 

2) I don't think I'm okay with drafting Aiken at #6. At this point it certainly seems like he would have the highest upside of anyone available. But based on my conspiracy theories above, I'm not sure he will be completely healthy even after TJ. And I don't have enough faith in the Twins FO and medical staff to properly handle a complicated medical and rehab process.

I think you're giving the Astros too much credit.  They dropped their offer to 3.15m but then raised it to 5 and he still refused.

 

Obviously the medicals are the big thing but every team that wants to draft him will get a look at them.  The Twins got lucky when Gibson fell to them because of concerns he'd need TJ surgery and it worked out.  Unless they are in love with another talent - and a lot of the draft still has to play out - nabbing him at 6 looks pretty good.

 

Incidentally, the slot value for that pick is about 3.9m so not a huge loss to Aiken if he signs for slot.

[gunnarthor]

 

Lucas Gioloto (sp?), one of the top prospects in baseball says "hello"......

Yep, and Bundy and Hoffman.  Probably a lot more.

[markos]

 

I think you're giving the Astros too much credit.  They dropped their offer to 3.15m but then raised it to 5 and he still refused.

I had forgotten about that. Hmm. Do I forgo my latest conspiracy theory in light of new contradictory evidence, or do I stick to my guns? Always a tough choice. 

[laloesch]

 

This means he will likely be available for the Twins.  Frankly, I would take him at 6th overall if I was the Twins.

 

Lucas Giolito was a likely top 3 pick and needed TJ.  The Nats took him 16th. He is now the 6th best prospect in the game.   Last year, after TJ and at 19 years old he had a 2.20 ERA and 110 K's in 98 IP at high A.

 

His report from last year.   Polished 6'4 lefty. Good control. Mid 90's fastball and a really good breaking ball. Four good pitches overall.  They don't grow on trees.

 

It's certainly worth the look.  I wanted Lucas Giolito last year.

[tobi0040]

 

It's certainly worth the look.  I wanted Lucas Giolito last year.

 

Half these guys have TJ in the first few years anyway.  Almost all of them come back, it really isn’t as big of a deal outside of the contract risk and missing a guy for 1.5 years.  In this case his career starts 9 months later and maybe he is on a pitch count the next year.

 

It is about value and upside.  6’5 lefty’s with that stuff.  He was a clear #1 pick, over Rodon, Bryant, etc.  I don’t think he gets out of the top 10 and I guess I would not be totally shocked if he is gone before us.  Although 2 of those five picks are Houston and something tells me they won’t draft him.

I would rather have Giolito right now than Nick Gordon or Kyle Schwarber.

[nytwinsfan]

Yup, in this weak draft, if he's there at 6, I say take him.

[biggentleben]

 

So.... Are the Astros saying "I told you so" to anyone who will listen?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/brady-aiken-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery.html

 

No, I don't think so, but the real issue wasn't that he was doomed to Tommy John, it's that he had an abnormally small UCL, so recovery from Tommy John surgery could be much more difficult and risky.

 

It's still a very risky proposition to take him early as the success rate on Tommy John is certainly nowhere near 100%.

[Pitz]

Lucas Giolito was drafted in 2012 not 2014. So its not really a comparison of him vs. Nick Gordon. Would you rather have Giolito or Byron Buxton?

 

As far as Aiken, maybe he's worth the risk at 6, but I highly doubt the Twins would take him there.

[tobi0040]

 

No, I don't think so, but the real issue wasn't that he was doomed to Tommy John, it's that he had an abnormally small UCL, so recovery from Tommy John surgery could be much more difficult and risky.

 

It's still a very risky proposition to take him early as the success rate on Tommy John is certainly nowhere near 100%.

 

The Astros concluded he needed TJ and made a decision.  They either wanted Aiken for a very small amount of money or the 2nd pick the following year.  They probably low balled him knowing he would not take it.

[tobi0040]

 

Lucas Giolito was drafted in 2012 not 2014. So its not really a comparison of him vs. Nick Gordon. Would you rather have Giolito or Byron Buxton?

 

As far as Aiken, maybe he's worth the risk at 6, but I highly doubt the Twins would take him there.

 

I know when he was drafted.  But Gordon was drafted 5th, Schwarber 4th. Those are the types of players that are going to be available, especially since many thought the Twins and Cubs stretched a little with those picks.

[Pitz]

 

I know when he was drafted.  But Gordon was drafted 5th, Schwarber 4th. Those are the types of players that are going to be available, especially since many thought the Twins and Cubs stretched a little with those picks.

Gotcha, I see what you are trying to say.

But I think it makes more sense to compare Giolito to the guys available at 6th in the 2012 draft and compare Aiken to guys in this draft. Each draft class is different. Its also tough to make the comparison in hindsight.

 

Would I rather have Giolito or Addison Russell (drafted 11th)? Probably Russell. 

Will Aiken or somebody else be the better pick at 6? Who knows?

[kydoty]

First overall pick to TJS and god knows when or where he will be picked again. 

 

Tough luck.

[Kwak]

I believe it would be a mistake to take damaged goods at #6. There has to be someone who projects to be a high-quality MLer there. The Twins have so darn many holes it shouldn't be all that tough to find someone.

[tobi0040]

 

I believe it would be a mistake to take damaged goods at #6. There has to be someone who projects to be a high-quality MLer there. The Twins have so darn many holes it shouldn't be all that tough to find someone.

 

I guess that is the question.  Are pitchers with TJ damaged goods?  You can find a few all of famers who have had TJ.  It doesn't seem to be hurting Gibson.  Giolito, and many others.  
 

And for me you have a 1-1 talent available at #6.   And a guy that is a very, very rare commodity of size, lefty, and stuff.  What if he throws 93 instead of 95 and has an above average curve?  I will take that at 1-6 every day of the week.

[tobi0040]

Jeremy Nygaard on Twitter.

 

 

Jeremy Nygaard @jeremynygaard  ·  13 hrs13 hours ago  If the draft was deeper, maybe I'd feel differently... but it isn't stacking up to be real good. Aiken is worth the risk at #6.1 retweet 4 favorites  Reply Retweet 1 Retweeted 1  Favorite 4 Favorited 4  More
 

Embed Tweet   
 

Jeremy Nygaard @jeremynygaard  ·  13 hrs13 hours ago  I'm fairly certain that Aiken was #1 on the #MNTwins board last year. And, if healthy, would have been there again.

[kydoty]

The problem for Aiken is timing.  TSJ has a 12 month recovery at minimum.  He will go more than a year without pitching and MLB teams will not be able to gauge how his arm is doing at the time of this draft or the next.  Yeah, TSJ has nowhere near the stigma it used to, but there's still no guarantee that the player will fully recover from it, and teams aren't going to take that lightly. 

[tobi0040]

 

The problem for Aiken is timing.  TSJ has a 12 month recovery at minimum.  He will go more than a year without pitching and MLB teams will not be able to gauge how his arm is doing at the time of this draft or the next.  Yeah, TSJ has nowhere near the stigma it used to, but there's still no guarantee that the player will fully recover from it, and teams aren't going to take that lightly. 

 

In some ways that is a benefit, it is out of the way before his MLB service clock goes. the clock was winding on guys like Strasburg, Harvey, Wheeler, and Liriano during their 18 month rehab. 

 

To your other point, it isn't a lock he goes back to who he was.  But we would not have had the chance to draft him at 6 overall if he didn't get hurt.  So it is a value play.

 

I think you start with what he was and then adjust that to the drop off we have seen out of guys that have had the surgery in the last 3-4 years.  

 

Start with a 1-1 talent, a rare 6'5 lefty with four pitches. The fastball was 95.  Now say it is 93.  He had a really nasty breaking ball, now say he has just an above average breaking ball. I don't know why the change up, which was a plus pitch would change much.  Well that looks like a guy I take at 6th overall every day of the week.

 

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

As soon as he's drafted, he becomes the property of an ML team at this point. The question Aiken is going to have is whether he waits out a year and enters the draft again or takes a pay cut. I suspect that if the Twins offered him 3-4M if he was still available, that he'd think long and hard about taking it.

[High heat]

Anyone you draft is a risk. The twins need top of the rotation pitching and there pitching is very rhp heavy so a lefty is huge. Give me Aiken if he is there at 6 and let him sit out a year and rehab with us. The nice thing is if you take him at 6 you likely can get him below slot $ and spend that elsewhere in the draft.

[tobi0040]

 

As soon as he's drafted, he becomes the property of an ML team at this point. The question Aiken is going to have is whether he waits out a year and enters the draft again or takes a pay cut. I suspect that if the Twins offered him 3-4M if he was still available, that he'd think long and hard about taking it.

 

I would think so as well. 

 

They initially had a $6.5m deal.  Then the Astos went down to $3.1m, then apparently went back up to $5m.  But at that point he probably was not sure he needed TJ and he might have simply not wanted to be a member of that organization.

 

Last years #6 pick Alex Jackson signed above slot for $4 million.

[Mike Sixel]

he will go in the top 10, maybe top 5 in this draft.

 

And, this time he will sign for slightly below slot.