How the Twins discovered MoneyBall 10 years too late

[jorgenswest]

Must read article from BP on the Twins and their approach at the plate.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25775

 

The Twins aren't swinging at the first pitch and correspondingly fall behind 0-1 more than any other team. Is more balance necessary?

 

I do wonder about the Twins data with runners in scoring position. It wasn't in the article, but it seems like putting the ball in play has more value with a runner on base.

[jimmer]

'The Twins scored the fifth most runs in the American League, and the next person you find who thinks they had the fifth most offensive talent had better be the first.'

[Steve Lein]

 

I do wonder about the Twins data with runners in scoring position. It wasn't in the article, but it seems like putting the ball in play has more value with a runner on base.

 

Putting the ball in play definitely has more value with a runner on base!!! Walks don't score runs!!!

 

This is a major criticism of Joe Mauer that I specifically have. He has a great batting line with RISP, but the RBI totals don't match up to it. Reason? He remains passive like he is in every at-bat, and draws a lot of walks.

 

I 100% of the time will take a drop in batting average in those situations, if it means a player is being more aggressive to bring in runners. The potential payoff from a ball in play (a run) is much greater than simply getting on first base, which also brings in the potential for a double-play which is the definition of a rally killer.

[jimmer]

'One of the old clichés in baseball is, “you can’t win without hitting with runners in scoring position.” Many people link that to why the Cardinals had done so well in the past and why they haven’t really been able to get going this year. In years past, they have consistently been not only one of the best teams in baseball, but also the best at hitting with runners in scoring position.

Many people in the game consider it also to be one of the most important stats when it comes to judging a player’s hitting ability. In a press conference at the beginning of the season, Matt Williams had sabermetricians finally thinking that someone with their ideology was becoming the manager of the Washington Nationals when he said, “If you don’t get with the times, bro, you better step aside.” When I heard that, I immediately thought that he would be talking about more advanced hitting metrics than batting average and home runs and RBI’s. He followed that comment up with, “My favorite stat right now and always has been the stat of hitting with runners in scoring position. Because batting average and on-base percentage and all of those things are great, but who is doing damage and how can they hit with guys in scoring position.” When I heard that, I immediately slunked back in my chair and placed him in the category of old-school.

 

'The thing that they and many other people think is that if you can’t hit with runners in scoring position, you can’t win games and you can’t score runs. For these people, it is for the most part a blind hypothesis, just assuming it is true because it seems that it should be true.'

 

And after lot of info, the following paragraph:

 

'So Matt, not to rain on your parade, but batting average with runners in scoring position has very little to do with determining runs or wins. And Marty, it’s just limiting Votto’s overall production to a small sample size that doesn’t have a whole lot to do with winning games. No one will argue that hitting with runners in scoring position can help to win games because it does often result in scoring a run but it should not be looked at as one of the key stats in a player’s production.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/taking-a-closer-look-at-hitting-with-runners-in-scoring-position/

 

[jorgenswest]

if the Twins approach corresponds to getting behind 0-1 in the count more often than any other team, how does getting behind 0-1 impact likelihood of runs scored with runs in scoring position? Are there situations where they need a more aggressive approach?

[Nick Nelson]

Good article. As the writer points out near the end, I think the expanding wave of more aggressive hitters (Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Sano, not to mention Hunter) will help balance out the more patient approaches from guys like Mauer and Dozier.

 

I have high hopes for this offense.

[jimmer]

 

if the Twins approach corresponds to getting behind 0-1 in the count more often than any other team, how does getting behind 0-1 impact likelihood of runs scored with runs in scoring position? Are there situations where they need a more aggressive approach?

Because they were so patient early in counts, both the Twins and the Sox ended up in so many two-strike situations that their strikeout rates crept into the highest quartile in the league, despite each team being better than average at battling once they had two strikes against them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Because they were so patient early in counts, both the Twins and the Sox ended up in so many two-strike situations that their strikeout rates crept into the highest quartile in the league, despite each team being better than average at battling once they had two strikes against them.

Trueblood has some quotable moments in this article, I especially liked the anecdote he led with:

 

"...The first Twin to swing at a first pitch that night was Pedro Florimon, the ninth batter of the game. The second to do so was Trevor Plouffe, the 15th batter, leading off the fourth inning, and Plouffe only did so because he got such a meatball from Joe Blanton; he homered on that swing..."

 

That's an interesting idea and I wonder if by design for that one game. I can almost imagine Gardy and/or Vavra instructing everyone in the lineup to take the first pitch, in order that Florimon might have a real easy first-pitch fastball waiting for him. Reminds me of how some NFL teams would script their first 15 offensive plays before the game began. It would be interesting to know if the Twins program a series of at bats against certain pitchers that way. If the Twins have the personnel to succeed with the "take-the-first-pitch" approach then why not stick with it. Another question would be why teams are going back to a more free swinging SLG type of offense.

[jimmer]

 

 Another question would be why teams are going back to a more free swinging SLG type of offense.

perhaps because of the strike zone being called larger?

[jay]

'The Twins scored the fifth most runs in the American League, and the next person you find who thinks they had the fifth most offensive talent had better be the first.'

Which is interesting, because you could realistically say that's the goal of sabremetrics -- get more production out of your players than would be expected.

[Parker Hageman]

Like the direction of the study but it feels...incomplete. Or at least way too macro. Or maybe leads to more questions...

 

Here's some additional data [YEAH! EVERYONE LOVES NUMBERS!]: In 2014 the Twins swung at 22.6% first pitches. The rest of the league swung at 27% on average. Only Boston took more often than Twins hitters. On those takes, the Twins were behind 0-1 49% of the time (compared to a league average of 45%). 

 

I checked to see where the Twins ranked in terms of taking a middle-middle (i.e. straight down Broadway) fastball on the first pitch. No surprise, they took that pitch 59% of the time (compared to a 50% league average). Only Boston and Texas watched a higher percentage of fastballs down the middle go by. 

 

I do wonder about the Twins data with runners in scoring position. It wasn't in the article, but it seems like putting the ball in play has more value with a runner on base.

 

 

On the first pitch with runners on base, the Twins swung just 26% of the time, the second-lowest. Overall, with runners on base the Twins put the ball in play in 38% of those plate appearances -- 27th out of 30 teams. 

 

Disclaimer: All data via ESPN/TruMedia. 

 

[jimmer]

 

Which is interesting, because you could realistically say that's the goal of sabremetrics -- get more production out of your players than would be expected.

I think that was the point, that they were able to get all that offense from a team that shouldn't have been able to do that much damage based on personnel.  

 

Also, they did have that one big weekend against the Tigers where they scored like 40 runs or so in three games.  Awesome weekend.

[KGB]

 

Putting the ball in play definitely has more value with a runner on base!!! Walks don't score runs!!!

 

Agreed, plus putting the ball in play period, will lead to more runs.

 

That's my biggest complaint with batter taking so many pitches.  This approach has not increased the  numbers of walks per 9 innings.  From 1970 to 2010, the walks per game were about 3.2.  Since 2010, it's been dropping and in 2014 it was 2.88 per nine innings.  The only stat that is increasing is strike outs per game. 

 

Giving away strikes to pitchers doesn't seem to be a way to improve production.  Moneyball was a fun book and movie, but I think having 3 Cy-Young type pitchers in Zito, Hudson and Mulder probably was as big of reason for Oakland's record - just would not make as good of a movie or movement.

[Tibs]

I have no problem with hitters taking the first pitch, as long as it isn't a meatball. This article doesn't mention location of first pitches, but that would be going very in depth and dealing with a lot of numbers. Sometimes a first pitch strike is unhittable. 

 

How does swinging at the first pitch affect how many pitches a team sees a game? Is there conclusive evidence that teams who swing at the first pitch score more runs?

[Kwak]

The Twins didn't lead the league in striking-out because they took the first pitch--they struck-out because they couldn't hit the last pitch. There were way too many HR swings with two-strike counts especially on questionable "pitches". Perhaps more repititions will help? Or, cutting-down the stroke when beind in the count? One can't fault a player for practicing discipline in hitting when the pitching philosophy is PtoC. The

philosophy does have it's drawbacks to be sure--but the whole philosophy has to change in order to be consistent. Swinging at the first pitch pretty much requires a hitter (Dozier or Plouffe) who can realistically "punish the cripple pitch" for a home run, rather than the Mauer Approach of inside-outting the ball.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Putting the ball in play definitely has more value with a runner on base!!! Walks don't score runs!!!

 

This is a major criticism of Joe Mauer that I specifically have. He has a great batting line with RISP, but the RBI totals don't match up to it. Reason? He remains passive like he is in every at-bat, and draws a lot of walks.

 

I 100% of the time will take a drop in batting average in those situations, if it means a player is being more aggressive to bring in runners. The potential payoff from a ball in play (a run) is much greater than simply getting on first base, which also brings in the potential for a double-play which is the definition of a rally killer.

doesnt number of outs matter? Sure two outs is 100%, but what about no outs? What if the pitcher can't find the zone? I love to criticize Mauer as much as anyone for being passive, but that's also why I think he's a terrible 3-4-5 hitter. Bat him 2 and let him create RBI for Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe.

[Steve Lein]

doesnt number of outs matter? Sure two outs is 100%, but what about no outs? What if the pitcher can't find the zone? I love to criticize Mauer as much as anyone for being passive, but that's also why I think he's a terrible 3-4-5 hitter. Bat him 2 and let him create RBI for Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe.

It does to a point. Mauer is not a situational hitter if you ask me, because he takes that same approach no matter what. I agree 100% he should bat 2nd for this reason.