Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?

[Seth Stohs]

Thursday is the final day of the 2014 Winter Meetings. The big event of the final day each year is the Rule 5 draft. The Minnesota Twins roster is currently at 39, so they will be able to participate in the Rule 5 draft. The Twins may have interest in several players from other organizations who are available. It is also possible that the Twins could lose a player or two if selected by other teams.It should be also pointed out that the MLB Rule 5 draft is just the first of three Rule 5 drafts. There is a AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft. Each organization can put up to 39 players on their AAA roster. The Twins have 38 players on their roster, according to GM Terry Ryan on the Twins Hot Stove Show last night, so they will likely make a selection in that phase. Finally, there is a AA portion of the draft, though very few players are selected in it.

 

There are several differences between these drafts. To make an MLB selection, a team must pay $50,000. That player needs to be on the drafting team’s 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the original team for $25,000. The other option is that the teams can work out a trade. The Twins have examples of what can happen with their three most recent picks.

• Scott Diamond – Twins selected him from the Braves. He did not make the opening day roster, but the Twins and Braves were able to work out a trade. Diamond was taken off of the 40-man roster and the Twins sent RHP Billy Bullock to Atlanta.
• Terry Doyle – The Twins selected Doyle from the White Sox organization. He was returned to Chicago late in spring training.
• Ryan Pressly – The Twins drafted Pressly from the Red Sox organization. He remained on the Twins roster the entire 2013 season. He was able to be sent back to AAA during the 2014 season and pitched well enough to be called up during the season’s second half.

To select a player in the AAA portion, the cost to the team is $12,000. For a player selected in the AA portion, the cost is $5,000. In both cases, the player remains with the new organization.

 

It has become a lot more difficult to find high-level talent in the Rule 5. The rules changed a few years ago so that teams would have an extra year to determine whether or not to add a player to the 40 man roster.

 

The Twins have had some success in the Rule 5 draft in their past. Diamond certainly had one very good season. Shane Mack came to the Twins in the Rule 5 draft in 1989 and was a big contributor to the Twins for five seasons.

 

PLAYERS THE TWINS COULD LOSE

 

We don’t know who is or isn’t on the AAA or AA roster, so it’s really hard to determine who could be lost. A year ago, the Twins lost Tim Atherton to the A’s in the AAA draft. We do know who is on the Twins roster and who is eligible to be lost by the team.

 

We like to assume that first-round picks will be easy choices to add to the 40-man roster when that time comes. However, the Twins have several former first round picks who could be lost. There are several other players who could be taken.

• Alex Wimmers has been eligible to be selected the last two years and hasn’t been taken. He could be again this year. He got back to AA this year, but now he is out of the bullpen.
• This is the first year that Levi Michael needed to be added. The 2011 top pick was left vulnerable to be selected and could be taken as a second utility infielder for a team. He played well in Ft. Myers and then hit well over .300 in his 15 games at AA.
• He was the Braves first round pick in 2011, but Sean Gilmartin came to the Twins last offseason in exchange for Ryan Doumit. He pitched in AA and AAA this year and is left-handed, so he could be taken as a long-reliever or stashed away.
• Niko Goodrum was the Twins second round pick in 2010 out of high school in Georgia. He was moved from shortstop to third base in 2014. He didn’t hit for average or power, but he does take a lot of walks and runs well. Could a team stash him on their big league roster and use him as a pinch runner?
• Jason Adam came to the Twins last August in exchange for Josh Willingham. He reached AAA with the Royals organization as a 23-year-old last year. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League.
• Adrian Salcedo was a top starting pitching prospect in the Twins minor league system just three years ago. Then elbow and shoulder problems hit and he spent more than a season rehabbing. He’s back to throwing hard and was a solid contributor to the New Britain bullpen. He struck out 76 in 73 innings. He could have been a minor league free agent this offseason but signed with the Twins last month.
• Ryan O’Rourke pitched at AA New Britain in 2014. He is already 26 and the left-hander has some crazy splits. Right-handers hit .326/.398/.573 (.971), but left-handers hit just .114/.162/.129 (.291) against him. He has a good fastball and a sharp-breaking slider. He is a LOOGY who could be used in the big leagues in that role.

SO, WHO COULD THE TWINS PICK?

 

It’s impossible to know what the Twins and their decision-makers are thinking as it relates to the Rule 5 draft. It can’t be just about their stats. It can’t be just about their tools. It has to be about whether or not the player can be a contributor to the organization long-term. Here are some names that I find interesting. There may be more that you like. We’ll find out later this morning.

• Delino DeShields (OF/2B – Houston Astros) – We know how the Twins (and probably all scouts) like genetics. We also heard that the Twins offered DeShields’ father, a former big leaguer with the same name, their first base coaching job – which he declined to be the AAA manager for the Reds. DeShields, Jr. is a terrific athlete. He was the eighth overall pick in the 2010 draft out of high school in Georgia. In 2012 in Low A ball, he stole 100 bases. He moved up to AA for the 2014 season and hit .236/.346/.360 (.706) with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 54 stolen bases. Is he ready for the big leagues? Probably not. Could he stick on the big league roster? He could be the #5 outfielder, a pinch runner and play from time to time.
• JR Graham (RHP – Atlanta Braves) – Graham was the Braves fourth round pick in 2011 out of Santa Clara. He became a top 100 prospect just two years ago. However, he has struggled with shoulder issues the last couple of seasons which has taken away some of his velocity. However, if healthy, he could still regain what he had two years ago. He could be a steal.
• Edgar de la Rosa (RHP – Detroit Tigers) – He is 6-8, 235 pounds and throws a triple-digit fastball. He has been a starter in the minor leagues though most believe his future will be in the bullpen. That is obviously the role he would have if the Twins selected him. He went 7-9 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In 139 innings, he walked 53 and struck out 91 for High-A Lakeland. He’s also already 24 years old.
• Jarlin Garcia (LHP – Miami Marlins) – He won’t turn 22 until June. The 6-1, 170 pound left-hander features a fastball reaching 94 with a good curveball. He pitched in Low-A in 2014 and went 10-5 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He gave up 152 hits in 133.2 innings, but he walked just 21 and struck out 111. He has big upside, but he’s not close to ready and would need to be stashed and rarely pitch if he were taken.
• Jed Bradley (RHP – Milwaukee Brewers) – The 6-4, 225 lefty was the 15^th overall pick in the 2011 draft out of Georgia Tech where he was a teammate of Luke Bard. He is already 24 and split the season between High-A and AA. Overall, he went 10-10 with a 3.91 ERA (2.98 in High-A, 4.55 in AA) and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s left-handed. He is advanced enough to handle a back-of-the-bullpen role and could eventually develop into a solid lefty reliever.
• John Stilson (RHP – Toronto Blue Jays) – Twins fans seem to “enjoy” when the team brings back players or coaches with any sort of connection to the organization. Well, Stilson was the Twins 19^th round draft pick in 2009 out of junior college. He strongly considered signing at that time, but he was also playing in the American Legion World Series in Fargo. A day after not signing, he pitched in the championship game. He went to Texas A&M and in 2011 was the Jays third round pick. He is a very talented reliever, capable of hitting 97 with the fastball and also has a good changeup and breaking ball. Why is he left unprotected? He had shoulder surgery late this season and there is a chance he will miss most of the 2015 season. The Twins could put him on the 60 day disabled list for the entire season and then they would need to keep him on the active 25-man roster for at least the first 90 days of the 2016 season or be sent back to Toronto.
• Jake Esch (RHP – Miami Marlins) – Another guy with a mid-90s fastball, Esch is a 24-year-old who was drafted out of Georgia Tech in the 11^th round in 2011. His fastball sits 91 to 95 mph. He also has a good slider and a good curveball. In High-A in 2014, he went 6-6 with a 4.05 ERA. In 135.2 innings, he gave up 147 hits, 34 walks and struck out 105 batters.

There are some very interesting names out there, available for the Twins to take with the fifth pick on Thursday morning. What would you do? What will the Twins do? Check back shortly after the Rule 5 draft and we’ll have an article on Twins players affected by the Major League and Minor League portions.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Cody Martin - also from Atlanta - could be a good fit.  Twins drafted him previously.  He put up pretty solid numbers in AAA last year (10th in k/9 among starters) and the Twins would have seen him a few times since he's in the international league. 

[drock2190]

Hope they pick some starter with a heavy fastball and stick him in the pen. Worth a shot imo

[beckmt]

Garcia sounds interesting, take him and stash him for a year.  2015 is probably a throw away year, so adding a possible good left hander could be a bonus.

[beckmt]

Would probably have added Levi Michael, but he may not be certain enough to be taken.  Would hate to lose him to a talent poor club just taking a look and find out Twins were wrong.

[Otwins]

Since we hired a minor league pitching coach I wonder if he has a player he likes.

[Seth Stohs]

Would probably have added Levi Michael, but he may not be certain enough to be taken.  Would hate to lose him to a talent poor club just taking a look and find out Twins were wrong.

 

He's in there... second one on the list.

[gunnarthor]

My guess is that the Twins take DeShields if he's there when they pick, if not, they'll nab one of the Atlanta pitchers (Martin or Graham).

[gunnarthor]

That said, Berardino tweets that the Twins are on Graham

[nicksaviking]

Berardino thinks Graham is the pick if he gets to the Twins:

 

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/542946215508185088

 

So we can probably cross him off the list considering how the last couple of  weeks have played out for Berardino, he's on a bit of a cold streak.

[Steve Lein]

Yuck on Graham.  That fastball they say he has? He didn't have it last year after his shoulder issues in 2013.

 

From BA:

 

"Why He Wouldn’t Be Picked

Graham’s stuff was not nearly as good in 2014 as its been in the past and he especially trailed off in the second half, which explains why he was left unprotected. Graham could regain much of his previous plus stuff, but its at least as likely that his shoulder problems mean that 95-plus mph fastball is a distant memory."

 

I'm all for Delino DeShields, however. 

[Mike Sixel]

They'll pick someone.....2 years from now, no one will care. That's what I expect.

[zenser]

I would be happy to grab de la Rosa, Garcia, Graham, or to a lesser extent Deshields. I think any of the three pitchers could be stashed on the roster and could contribute a little bit this year. Garcia would be the most interesting just based off his young age.

[SwainZag]

At this point I just hope a) they select SOMEONE and it's not a soft tossing control pitcher.  Take a chance!

[nicksaviking]

I thought MLB.com was streaming or at least posting Rule V selections but I can't find it.  Anyone see where it is?

 

They need a serious revamp of their site, that thing has been a difficult navigation for about a decade.

[gunnarthor]

I thought MLB.com was streaming or at least posting Rule V selections but I can't find it.  Anyone see where it is?

 

They need a serious revamp of their site, that thing has been a difficult navigation for about a decade.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/prospects/index.jsp

 

The easy way to access their prospect stuff is to just type in www.mlbpipeline.com - that's the front page for all the minor league stuff, including the rule v draft.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought MLB.com was streaming or at least posting Rule V selections but I can't find it.  Anyone see where it is?

 

They need a serious revamp of their site, that thing has been a difficult navigation for about a decade.

Draft starts at 11 AM Central.  You are correct, there is no link yet.  Probably check back closer to 11.

[blindeke]

The Twins pick 5th or something?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins pick 5th or something?

Yes, reverse order of standings.  Complete draft order here:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103184576/rule-5-of-thumb-gems-can-be-found-in-draft

 

The top 5 (and all have an open spot or two on their 40-man rosters):

 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Colorado Rockies

3. Texas Rangers

4. Houston Astros

5. Minnesota Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

Live audio link is on the mlb.com homepage now, here it is:

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40172882/v37035539

[Otto von Ballpark]

J.R. Graham is our choice!

 

DeShields was off the board, I wasn't really paying attention to the other names.  White Sox were the first to pass at #7.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mets select Sean Gilmartin.

[SwainZag]

J.R. Graham is our choice!

 

DeShields was off the board, I wasn't really paying attention to the other names.  White Sox were the first to pass at #7.

 

I think it's a high upside pick.  If indeed it was ramifications from the shoulder injury and can get that velocity back on his fastball we might have something nice here.  I also think looking at the potential 2015 Twins roster, a pitcher would be the easiest to stash for a year.

[nicksaviking]

Mets select Sean Gilmartin.

 

Soft tossing lefties belong in the NL anyway. 

 

Not sure that an 88 MPH fastball will work out for a rookie out of the pen though.  Odds are he'll get returned.  Acutally odds are nearly all will get returned.

Edited December 11, 2014 by nicksaviking

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ahead of us:

 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Oscar Hernandez
2. Colorado Rockies - Mark Canha
3. Texas Rangers - Delino Deshields
4. Houston Astros - Jason Garcia (traded to Baltimore)

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/2014-rule-5-draft-results.html

Edited December 11, 2014 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

AAA phase

 

We got Greg Peavey from the Mets

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre

 

1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Tim Crabbe, CIN
2. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Simon, PHI
3. Texas Rangers - Roderick Shoulders, CHC
4. Houston Astros - Luis Flores, CHC

[Otto von Ballpark]

Miami selects Matt Tomshaw from the Twins in the minor league phase:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat

Edited December 11, 2014 by spycake